Antecedents of Organizational Sophistication in Violent Non-State Actors

Gina S. Ligon

Associate Professor

The Center for Collaboration Science

University of Nebraska at Omaha

Michael K. Logan

Doctoral Candidate

School of Criminology and Criminal Justice

University of Nebraska at Omaha

This research was supported by the Combating Terrorism Technical Support Office and the Department of Homeland Science Directorate ’s Office of University Programs through Award Number 2012-ST-061 CS0001, Center for the Study of

Terrorism and Behavior (CSTAB 1.12) made to START to investigate THEME: 1 the role of social, behavioral, cultural , and economic factors on radicalization and violent extremism (Principal Investigator for this project, Dr. Gina Ligon, University

of Nebraska Omaha). The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of CTTSO, DHS, or START. 1

• Who We Are

• Indicators of Organizational Sophistication

in VNSAs

• Leadership for the Extremism and

Dangerous for Innovative Results (LEADIR)

Project

• Application to VNSAs in CENTCOM AOR

• Conclusions and Benefits for Planners

Agenda for Today’s Talk

2

3

The Center for

Collaboration

Science

• Interdisciplinary Research

Center Examining All Forms

of Collaboration

• Radicalization and Violent

Extremism (RAVE) Division

• DoD University Affiliated

Research Center (UARC) and

DHS Center of Excellence

Performer

4

What is

Organizational

Sophistication?

Specialization

Centralization Formalization

Organizational

Sophistication

5

Why

Organizational

Sophistication

Matters

As Organizational Sophistication increases so

too does the VNSAs’:

- Aptitude for complex operations and tactics

- Organizational capital

- Capacity for innovation

Organizational

Dimension AdvantagesIndicators

Centralization

Formalization

Specialization

• Clearly defined goals

• Resource management

• Expertise

• Cross-functional collaboration

• Increased accountability

• Efficient decision-making

• Institutional memory

• Hierarchical agenda-setting

• Top-management-team

• Operational autonomy

• Titles that codify functions

• Uniforms signaling tenure

• Application process

• Diverse organizational activities

• Distinctions between sub-units

6

280 Violent Non-State Actors

Open Source Data Collection

Coding Scheme for

Historically Verified

Organizational Information

7

Measuring

Organizational

Sophistication

Organizational Sophistication

Organizational

Dimension Indicators

• Presence of Leadership (0-1)

Formalization

Specialization

Centralization

Mean (SD)

• Top-Down Command-and-Control (1-5)

• Organizational Training (0-1)• Combat Training (0-1)

• Territorial Control (0-1)

• Deep-Level Diversity (1-5)

• Departmentalization (1-5)

• Services (0-1)

• .84 (.39)

• 3.43 (1.12)

• .32 (.47)

• .37 (.49)

• .65 (.48)

• .40 (.49)

• .51 (.50)

• 2.41 (1.25)

• 2.94 (1.18)

• .25 (.44)

• Uniforms(0-1)• Ideological Training (0-1)

8

US Central

Command Area

of Responsibility

*Adopted from centcom.mil/area-of-responsibility

9

Organizational Sophistication

Low Levels High Levels

Lebanese Hezbollah

Badr Brigades

AQAPBaloch Republican Guards

Sindu Liberation Army

Jaish-e-Mohammad

Kata’ib Hezbollah

10

Organizational

Sophistication

and Lethality

48.18

658.15

2907.85

0.00

500.00

1000.00

1500.00

2000.00

2500.00

3000.00

Low Moderate High

Ave

rag

e L

eth

ali

ty (

2008 -

2017

)

Level of Organizational Sophistication

11

Organizational

Sophistication

and Successful

Attacks on Hard

Targets6.45

69.13

77.92

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

Low Moderate High

Nu

mb

er

of

Su

ccess

ful A

ttack

s o

n H

ard

Targ

ets

(2008 -

2017

)

Level of Organizational Sophistication

12

Organizational

Sophistication

and Lethality on

Hard Targets

(General)30.64

427.64

995.38

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

700.00

800.00

900.00

1000.00

Low Moderate High

Ave

rag

e N

um

ber

of

Hard

Targ

ets

Kil

led

(2008 -

2017

)

Level of Organizational Sophistication

13

Organizational

Sophistication

and Lethality on

Hard Targets

(by Target Type)

12.55

74.72

340.54

11.55

278.87

483.31

6.55

74.05

171.54

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

Low Moderate High

Ave

rag

e N

um

ber

of

Hard

Targ

ets

Kil

led

(2008 -

2017

)

Level of Organizational Sophistication

Military Targets Police Targets Government Targets

14

Three Main

Findings

Organizational Sophistication is Linked to

Increasingly Complex Violence

Organizational Sophistication is an

Observable Construct in VNSAs

Practical Way of Examining Capabilities in

VNSAs

Example Indicator Checklist of Organizational Sophistication

Yes/NoIndicator Questions

Does the VNSA have a clearly defined leader?

Does the VNSA control territory?

Does the VNSA engage in combat training?

Do members of the VNSA wear uniforms?

15

Benefits to

Planners

Anticipate Target Selection Based on VNSA’s

Organizational Sophistication

Inform Potential Capabilities of Emerging

Threats

Provide Additional Tool for Prioritization and

Resource Allocation in Fiscally Constrained

Environment

16

Thank You

Gina S. Ligon

gligon@unomaha.edu

Michael K. Logan

mlogan@unomaha.edu

17

Recent Works Supporting SMA Effort

Logan, M.K., Zimmerman, L., Parker, B., & Ligon, G.S. (2019). Terrorism in the Philippines

and its influence on Great Powers.

Zimmerman, L., Logan, M.K., & Ligon, G.S. (2019). Violent non-state actors and the

Kashmir conflict.

Logan, M.K., Ligon, G.S., & Zimmerman, L (2019). Influential violent extremist organizational

partners of Iran.

Ligon, G.S. & Logan, M.K. (2019). Organizational and leadership consolidation and

fragmentation in the AFPAK region.

*** The current presentation is based on this effort.

Logan, M.K. & Ligon, G.S. (2019). Using organizational sophistication to predict

influence from violent non-state actors.***

18

Organizational Sophistication & Additional

Organizational Characteristics

Organizational Sophistication*

Organizational Age

Organizational Size

State Sponsorship

Illicit Funding Streams

.35, p < .01

.53, p < .01

.30, p < .05

.36, p < .01

* Results based on Pearson’s r Correlation analysis