15 APRIL 2015

INSIDE Pacific News 1 Pacific region 2 Papua New Guinea 2 Fiji 3 Cook Islands 3 Guam 3 Kiribati 3 New Caledonia 3 Samoa 3 American Samoa 3 Solomon Islands 4 Timor-Leste 4 Tonga 4 Vanuatu 4 Key Data Releases 5 Macro Forecasts 7 FX Market Developments 8 Commodity Market Developments 10 Important Notice 12

CONTRIBUTORS Research@anz.com Glenn Maguire Chief Economist, South Asia, ASEAN & Pacific Daniel Wilson, CFA Economist, ASEAN & Pacific Eugenia Fabon Victorino Economist, ASEAN & Pacific Weiwen Ng Economist, ASEAN & Pacific Eugin Lee Analyst, ASEAN & Pacific Victor Thianpiriya Commodity Strategist

PACIFIC MONTHLY

ANZ RESEARCH

HIGHLIGHTS

Comments from the Reserve Bank of Fiji highlighted stronger than expected growth in 2014 and they also upgraded their 2015 forecasts. The Bank of PNG highlighted strong LNG-led growth, however lower LNG prices may temper expectations. The Reserve Bank of Vanuatu also eased monetary policy to help the rebuilding process. New Caledonia has elected a new President.

• Data released over the month showed elevated inflation in PNG and an uptick in Tonga, but the rest of the Pacific was generally flat. Trade figures were mixed and tourist arrival growth generally showed small positive gains. Monetary aggregates continue to expand in the Pacific, except in Tonga. Reverses were generally lower, with the Solomon Islands and Timor expanding. Vanuatu eased monetary policy.

• USD strength took a couple weeks off, but appears to be re-emerging at the time of publishing. A weak non-farm payrolls report was the key driving factor behind the pull-back. More recently, weak data from China has seen the Antipodean currencies fall sharply. Pacific currencies have generally followed the global move, though performances are mixed.

• Commodity price themes remain unchanged, though we have seen some firming of prices over the month. Oilseeds and rice are the exception.

CHART OF THE MONTH – ANZ PNG BUSINESS SURVEY

The inaugural ANZ PNG Quarterly Business Survey* suggests firms had a difficult start to 2015, with the first quarter assessment sombre. Business activity is down and costs are on the rise. However, conditions are expected to improve over the next quarter, year, and five years. Business activity is expected to rise sharply and investment intentions are elevated over the next year and five years. Costs are also expected to remain high. For the full survey results please see the ANZ PNG Quarterly Business Survey.

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Last year (Q12015 vs. Q1 2014)

Last quarter (Q12015 vs. Q4 2014)

Next quarter (Q22015)

Next 12 months Next 5 years

Net

Bal

ance

Business/Output/Sales Costs Employment Investment *The survey featured responses from 73 corporates operating in PNG. There was a broad range of sectors surveyed which were geographically distributed across the country. The survey was extended to exporters, importers, and domestically concentrated companies. The survey period was from 5-20 March and completed online.

Source: ANZ Research

ANZ Pacific Monthly / 15 April 2015 / 2 of 13

PACIFIC NEWS

PACIFIC REGION

• Most Pacific economies are expected to perform strongly in 2015, according to the recently published Asian Development Outlook report by the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Robust tourism and fisheries revenue, together with public infrastructure investments, are likely to be key drivers of growth. A notable exception would be Vanuatu, which is expected to have subdued economic activity due to widespread damage from Cyclone Pam. (A copy of the report is available here.) (Radio Australia)

• The European Union will conduct studies to look into Kava imports, according to Vanuatu’s ambassador in Brussels. The seven month long study would take into account the legal, scientific, and trade aspects of Kava, and could eventually lead to the lifting of the Kava ban in Germany. (Radio New Zealand International)

• The Pacific Island Forum Secretariat announced the formation of a new Specialist Sub-Committee on Regionalism (SSCR). The SSCR aims to identify and assess regional initiatives for consideration in the Pacific Island Leaders forum. (PNG Post Courier)

• Australia announced an initiative to allow Australian students to study in the Pacific region. (Radio Australia)

PAPUA NEW GUINEA

ANZ Research published the inaugural PNG Quarterly Business Survey on 1 April. The results suggest firms had a difficult start to 2015, with the first quarter assessment sombre. However, conditions are expected to improve over the next quarter, year and five years.

For the full results of the survey, please consult: ANZ PNG Quarterly Business Survey.

For underlying methodology please see: Methodology & Q1 Additional Details.

• BPNG’s biannual monetary policy statement

was released at the end of March. The governor highlighted that growth in 2014 was likely stronger than the 8.4% estimate in the National Budget due to earlier than expected LNG production and exports. Inflation finished the year at 6.6% y/y in Q4 2014. The central bank spent USD570.9m in reserves to support the PGK in 2014. In 2015, the central bank expects GDP growth to come in around 9%, and inflation around 6%. The central bank also commented that the government should revisit their 2015 budget given the move in global energy prices. For the full statement, please see

March 2015 Monetary Policy Statement. (Bank of Papua New Guinea)

• PNG imports more than 10,000 vehicles every year, according to PNG Ports Corporation Limited (PNGPCL). The data over 2011-14 suggest that imports had remained steady despite the increase in imported fees. (PNG Post Courier)

• The Independent Public Business Corporation (IPBC) handed over the Lae Tidal Basin Port to PNG Ports Corporation Limited (PNGPCL), commencing phase 2 of the project. The billion kina port will be operated by PNGPCL where they look forward to “ensure it makes an appropriate rate of return on the investment”. (PNG Post Courier)

• Tolukuma Gold Mine will cease operations in mid-April this year. Petromin, the owner of the mine, noted they have been subsidising operations for the past four years as it struggles with high operating costs, a low gold price, lower grades, and dwindling resources. They also noted the lack of road access as a key reason for the closure. They will be working with the 320 employees of the mine to ensure they receive their full entitlements. (Pacific Mining Watch)

• Oil Search is working with PNG Power to make electricity available to PNG’s Highlands region. The Ramu Power Project has completed the first phase, which includes a continuous plant located near the Hides gas field. It will supply power to the Tari Rural Hospital, the local school, as well as additional connections. Further expansion of the Ramu Power Project are expected to include more transmission lines, and up to 100 MW of additional capacity. (PNG Industry News.net)

• The Asian Development Bank has allocated USD637m to support transport and infrastructure improvements in PNG as part of a four-year Country Partnership Strategy program. The program aims to ease infrastructure bottlenecks, increase job creation, and reduce business barriers. (The National)

• ExxonMobil has signed a new Electricity Sale Agreement with PNG Power to increase power supply at a cheaper rate to Port Moresby, according to PNG Prime Minister Peter O’Neill. This agreement is expected to generate PGK35m of savings and provide an energy buffer for the Pacific Games in July. (PNG Post Courier)

ANZ Pacific Monthly / 15 April 2015 / 3 of 13

PACIFIC NEWS

FIJI

• Fiji’s broad-based growth in 2014 was supported by expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, as was reported during the launch of the Asian Development Outlook 2015. Accommodative policies increased consumption and investment, which in turn boosted the tourism and agriculture industry. (HT Media Limited)

• The Reserve Bank of Fiji (RBF) now expects stronger than expected growth in 2014 and 2015. Governor Barry Whiteside announced “the domestic economy is now forecast to expand 4.3% y/y in the 2015 National Budget”. The growth estimate for 2014 was revised higher to 4.5%, from 4.2% previously. (Reserve Bank of Fiji)

• Fiji held the overnight policy rate at 0.5%, according to Reserve Bank Governor and board chairman Barry Whiteside. The decision was aided by robust economic activity from strong business confidence and accommodative monetary and fiscal policies. (Fiji Times)

• Japan has committed USD8.3m towards increasing awareness of non-communicable diseases in Fiji, according to Fiji’s health minister Jone Usamate. The Fijian health ministry would partner with the Japan International Co-operation Agency on the five year term project. (Fiji Times Online)

• Australia’s Jetstar airways will now fly to Fiji from Australia, according to Fiji’s minister for industry, trade and tourism, Faiyaz Koya. Minister Koya expects this route to benefit Fiji’s growing tourism industry by attracting more Australian visitors. (Fiji Live)

COOK ISLANDS

• Planned shipping services cut for Cooks’ Aitutaki region have been delayed for three months, according to Pacific Line Direct (PDL), the shipping company. This delay is due to a governmental request and would also be used to evaluate the long-term plans for the route. (Cook Islands News)

GUAM

• The Guam government released USD6m in tax refunds, bringing total refunds to USD35m this year. (Gannett Newspaper)

KIRIBATI

• Fijian’s Amalgamated Telecom Holdings (ATH) has acquired Telecom Services Kiribati Ltd (TSKL) for AUD7.5m, according to ATH’s announcement on its website. TSKL is Kiribati’s sole operator of mobile, fixed line, and broadband services. (Telegeography)

NEW CALEDONIA

• New Caledonia’s government has elected Philippe Germain as the new president, ending the political impasse that has been in place since last year. Under the new power sharing deal, the presidency was to be held by the Front For Unity party, while the Caledonia Together Party was given the presidency of the southern province. (Radio New Zealand International)

• New Caledonia’s Nickel production could be hit again by smelter trouble arising from the nickel spill in December last year, according to a manager at the Koniambo Nickel Company. Design flaws which necessitate the replacement of another furnace would almost halve this year’s planned production of 27,000 tonnes. This setback may lead to cost cutting measures and job cuts in Koniambo. (Radio New Zealand International)

SAMOA

• Real GDP grew by around 2% in fiscal year 2013-14, according to the findings from the recently concluded IMF mission to Samoa. Growth was supported by reconstruction activities, agricultural recovery, and United Nations conference preparations. Looking forward towards middle-term development, growth is expected to maintain around 2% from the expansion of agricultural and tourism activity. (RIA Oreanda-News)

• Samoa’s Polynesian Airlines would resume scheduled flights between Samoa and New Zealand in November this year, announced the Samoan government. The government commented that this initiative would enhance flight services and provide cheaper airfare options to the Samoan people. Chartered flights services have started, while scheduled flights are only available from November this year. (Radio New Zealand)

• Samoan Taro chips could reach Australian shores by the end of year, according to Tropical Crisps, a Samoan Chips manufacturer. Negotiations for Australian distributorship are ongoing amid strong Australian interest. (Samoa Observer)

AMERICAN SAMOA

• American Samoa’s longliner fleet is now allowed to fish in protected waters, according to the Tautai o Samoa Longline and Fishing Association. This exemption is aimed at providing some relief to lower catch rates and depressed wholesale prices in Samoa. (Radio New Zealand International)

ANZ Pacific Monthly / 15 April 2015 / 4 of 13

PACIFIC NEWS

SOLOMON ISLANDS

• The Solomon government tabled an USD548m budget for 2015, according to Finance Minister Snyder Rini. This year’s budget, which is also the largest in history, is aimed at achieving a broad-based economic development and employment plan in the Solomon Islands. (Solomon Islands Broadcasting Corporation)

• World Vision will provide relief kits to families in remote Solomon provinces affected by Cyclone Pam. (Solomon Star)

• Solomon Island’s Central Bank (CBSI) published their first working paper of 2015: Determinants of Inflation in the Solomon Islands. They concluded firstly that in the long-run, both money supply and government spending play an important role in the inflation. Secondly, in the short-run, the one-period lag or dynamics of the nominal effective exchange rate is also a significant determinant. In addition, there is clear evidence that inflation is affected by both domestic and external pressures. (Central Bank of Solomon Islands)

TIMOR-LESTE

• ANZ have announce a partnership to explore mobile phone banking solutions in Timor-Leste with Banco Nacional de Comercio de Timor Leste (BNCTL), according the ANZ CEO Pacific and Fiji, Vishnu Mohan. Mohan explained that ANZ’s technology expertise, coupled with BNCTL’s local experience, could provide a unique opportunity to deliver financial services across Timor-Leste. (Fiji Sun)

• Non-oil GDP is expected to grow 7% this year, according to the Timor-Leste government in the amending budget for 2015. Robust private investment, lower inflation, and an expected increase in consumption should lead to improved living standards, according to the document. (Macauhub)

• East Timor restated government plans to process gas from the Greater Sunrise field onshore, according to Minister of Petroleum and Natural Resources Alfredo Pires. Minister Pires cited new feasibility studies that indicated having the LNG refinery onshore as the cheapest option available. (Macauhub)

TONGA

• Tonga received AUD600,000 from Australia to support private sector initiatives and a new national strategy to control and prevent non-communicable diseases, as announced by Australia’s Foreign Minister Julie Bishop during her first official visit to Tonga. Initiatives include supporting smallholder vanilla

farmers and export infrastructure. (Matangi Tonga Magazine)

VANUATU

• The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is providing a USD1m emergency grant as part of a broader USD5m assistance package to Vanuatu in the wake of Cyclone Pam. The ADB grant is from its Asia Pacific Disaster Response Fund that is earmarked to fund humanitarian and relief efforts. (Oreanda News)

• The Reserve Bank of Vanuatu (RBV) has approved providing VT40m to help rebuilding efforts, according to RBV Governor Simeon Athy. Of the funds, VT30m would be used reconstruct schools, while the remainder would be concentrated on direct assistance as designated by the needs of the country. (Vanuatu Post)

• The Statutory Reserve Deposit (SRD) requirement was reduced from 7% to 5%, according to RBV Governor, Simeon Athy. The SRD is comprised of the reserve deposit of commercial banks, held as a required reserve by the RBV. In addition, Governor Athy announced that the policy rate would be reduced to 5.25%, from 5.50% and would be linked to the RBV notes rates. The RBV also announced that the Vanuatu National Provident Bank (VNPF) will release 20% of its members’ savings, amounting to about AUD7.3m. (Vanuatu Daily Post)

• The Australian government is keen to provide job opportunities to Vanuatu, in addition to the USD10m in aid already pledged to alleviate recovery efforts. Australia’s Foreign Minister Julie Bishop has also vowed to provide long-term assistance for the recovery from Cyclone Pam. (Radio Australia)

• Both international and domestic flights to Vanuatu have resumed, and the first cruise ship returned 8 April as Vanuatu’s tourism starts its recovery from Cyclone Pam. About two thirds of Vanuatu’s 350,000 yearly visitors arrive by cruise ship. (Radio New Zealand)

• All Duty and Value Added Taxes (VAT) on building materials will be waived for up to a month to help recovery efforts, said Vanuatu’s Prime Minister Joe Natuman. In addition, vehicle registration fees and VAT currently payable would be deferred till June. (Radio New Zealand International)

ANZ Pacific Monthly / 15 April 2015 / 5 of 13

KEY DATA RELEASES

New data are shaded

For a more in-depth view on the data flow, please consult our last Pacific Quarterly of 2014 here.

INFLATION LATEST PREVIOUS

Fiji CPI (y/y) Mar-15 2.4% 2.1% PNG CPI (y/y) Q4-14

6.6% 5.3% PNG Retail Price Index (RPI) Feb-15 7.1% 10.2%

Samoa CPI (y/y) Feb-15 3.1% 3.8% Solomon Isl. CPI (y/y, 3mma) Dec-14 4.8% 5.2% Timor-Leste CPI (y/y) Feb-15 0.6% 0.6%

Tonga CPI (y/y) Feb-15 4.7% 0.1%

Vanuatu CPI (y/y) Q4-14 1.1% 0.8% Source: The respective central banks and national statistics offices

TRADE LATEST PREVIOUS

Fiji* Exports (y/y, ytd) Nov-14

12.3% 13.7% Fiji* Imports (y/y, ytd) Nov-14

19.4% 20.2% PNG Exports (y/y) Q3-14 -6.9% 19.0% PNG Imports (y/y) Q3-14 -43.5% -21.1%

Samoa Exports (y/y) Feb-15 17.8% 31.2% Samoa Imports (y/y) Feb-15 -24.3% -7.0%

Solomon Isl. Exports (y/y) Jan-15 -34.2% 25.8% Solomon Isl. Imports (y/y) Jan-15 -33.4% -1.8% Timor-Leste Exports (y/y) Q4-14

-0.4% 155.5% Timor-Leste Imports (y/y) Q4-14

21.2% 61.4% Tonga Exports (y/y) Feb-15 20.3% 1.8% Tonga Imports (y/y) Feb-15 0.1% 12.1%

Vanuatu Exports (y/y) Dec-14

12.9% 157.8% Vanuatu Imports (y/y) Dec-14 -13.4% 52.0%

Source: The respective central banks and national statistics offices *excluding aircraft

POLICY RATES LATEST PREVIOUS

Fiji Overnight Policy Rate Mar-15 0.50% 0.50% PNG Kina Facility Rate Mar-15 6.25% 6.25%

Samoa Official Interest Rate Jan-15 0.17% 0.18% Tonga Wtd Ave Lending Rate Jan-15 9.00% 8.59%

Vanuatu Rediscount Rate Mar-15 5.25% 5.50% Source: The respective central banks and national statistics offices

TOURIST REMITTANCES LATEST PREVIOUS

Fiji Visitor Arrivals (y/y) Feb-15 7.0% 5.6% Samoa Tourist Arrivals (y/y) Feb-15 2.7% 6.3% Samoa Remittances (y/y) Feb-15 4.4% 9.6% Tonga Tourist Receipts (y/y) Feb-15 8.0% -27.9% Tonga Remittances (y/y) Feb-15 4.7% 4.2%

Vanuatu Tourist Arrivals (y/y) Dec-14 3.0% -1.6% Timor-Leste Visitor Arrivals at Dili Airport Q4-14 -38.3% -37.3%

Source: The respective central banks and national statistics offices

ANZ Pacific Monthly / 15 April 2015 / 6 of 13

KEY DATA RELEASES

MONETARY LATEST PREVIOUS

Fiji M3 - Money Supply (y/y) Feb-15 10.4% 12.1% Fiji Domestic Credit (y/y) Feb-15 15.9% 18.1% PNG Private Sector Credit (y/y) Jan-15 8.9% 3.5% PNG M3 - Money Supply (y/y) Jan-15 6.5% 3.1%

Samoa M2 - Money Supply (y/y) Feb-15 6.4% 7.2% Samoa Public & Private Sector Credit (y/y) Feb-14 12.5% 11.5%

Solomon Isl. Private Sector Credit, y/y Mar-15 19.1% 17.2% Solomon Isl. M3 - Money Supply (y/y) Mar-15 5.2% 3.2% Timor-Leste M2 - Money Supply (y/y) Feb-15 13.3% 13.2% Timor-Leste Private Sector Credit (y/y) Dec-14 -0.1% 0.0%

Tonga Private Sector Credit (y/y) Jan-15 -3.5% 5.5% Tonga M3 - Money Supply (y/y) Feb-15 -7.0% 8.6%

Vanuatu Private Sector Credit (y/y) Nov-14 4.4% 2.3% Vanuatu M2 - Money Supply (y/y) Nov-14 6.3% 2.3%

Source: The respective central banks and national statistics offices

RESERVES LATEST PREVIOUS IMPORT COVER

(MONTHS)

Fiji Foreign Reserves (USDm) Feb-15 885 897 4.4

PNG Foreign Reserves (USDm) Feb-15 2,070 2,234 7.0

Samoa Foreign Reserves (USDm) Jan-15 120.1 121.0 4.5 Solomon Isl. Foreign Reserves (USDm) Mar-15 516 489

9.9 Timor-Leste* Foreign Reserves (USDm) Feb-15 16,867 16,585

n/a Tonga Foreign Reserves (USDm) Feb-15

142.8 145.6 9.3 Vanuatu Foreign Reserves (USDm) Sep-14 163.0* 176.0 6.5*

Source: The respective central banks and national statistics offices; *ANZ estimate; Petroleum Fund Balance

ANZ Pacific Monthly / 15 April 2015 / 7 of 13

MACRO FORECASTS

REAL GDP GROWTH (%) NOMINAL GDP (USD BN)

2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2013E 2014F 2015F 2016F

Fiji 4.6 4.5 4.0 3.0 Fiji 3.4 3.7 3.9 4.1

PNG 5.5 8.5 12 3.5 PNG 16.1 18.1 21.3 23.0

Samoa** 0.0 1.9 2.4 -0.1 Samoa** 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9

Solomon Isl. 3.2 1.0 3.3 3.0 Solomon Isl. 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4

Timor-Leste* 9.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 Timor-Leste* 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.8

Tonga 0.3 1.1 1.5 1.4 Tonga 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Vanuatu^ 2.0 3.6 -0.5 4.0 Vanuatu^ 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9

INFLATION (%) FISCAL BALANCE (% OF GDP)

2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2013E 2014F 2015F 2016F

Fiji 2.9 0.5 3.0 3.0 Fiji -2.8 -2.1 -2.7 -1.7

PNG 3.6 6.6 6.5 5.0 PNG -7.8 -6.9 -4.5 -2.6

Samoa** -0.2 -1.2# 2.3 2.3 Samoa** -6.1 -4.8 -4.2 -3.9

Solomon Isl. 5.8 4.8 2.5 3.0 Solomon Isl. 2.3 -1.3 -0.1 0.5

Timor-Leste 9.7 1.5 3.0 3.3 Timor-Leste 39.7 21.0 14.5 12.0

Tonga 1.0 1.5 2.5 2.9 Tonga -1.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2

Vanuatu^ 1.5 0.8^ 4.0 2.6 Vanuatu^ 0.7 -2.1 -3.0 -3.0

CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE (% OF GDP) FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES (USD M)

2013E 2014F 2015F 2016F 2013E 2014F 2015F 2016F

Fiji -20.7 -10.0 -8.7 -8.9 Fiji 936 885 870 850

PNG -22.4 17.4 15.0 10.0 PNG 2,750 2,296 2,000 2,750

Samoa** -2.0 -5.4 -5.2 -5.0 Samoa 137 155 156 160

Solomon Isl. -4.0 -8.5 -4.1 -5.0 Solomon Isl. 515 505 525 550

Timor-Leste* 45 22 22.2 19 Timor-Leste 15.0bn 16.5bn 16.9bn 17.3bn

Tonga -6.0 -4.8 -4.8 -5.0 Tonga 140 150 155 140

Vanuatu^ -6.2 -6.0 -10.0 -7.0 Vanuatu^ 189 170 180 185

^ We are waiting for more details regarding the damage from the cyclone before assessing the economic impact from this devastating natural disaster. From a stylised point of view, the immediate impact will be: GDP growth will be revised lower; agricultural output will decline; inflation will spike higher; imports will increase; exports will fall; government revenue will decline; government spending will increase; official aid will increase; debt levels will increase; the currency should depreciate. Many of these thematics are temporary and will reverse over time. The central bank has already lowered interest rates and also released funds to help the rebuilding process. Data has not been updated on the statistics website. Source: Fiji: Reserve Bank of Fiji, ADB, IMF, ANZ Research PNG: Department of Treasury, Central Bank of PNG, ANZ Research Samoa: IMF, ADB, ANZ Research Solomon Islands: Central Bank of Solomon Islands, IMF, ANZ Research Timor-Leste: IMF, ANZ Research Vanuatu: Reserve Bank of Vanuatu, IMF, ANZ Research * Real and nominal GDP pertain to non-oil GDP; C/A balance as % of non-oil GDP ** Samoa’s fiscal year runs from July – June ^Actual figure

ANZ Pacific Monthly / 15 April 2015 / 8 of 13

FX MARKET DEVELOPMENTS

Strong USD appreciation has taken a temporary breather on a global scale. However, we see this as short-lived, indeed earlier this week following weaker data from China the AUD and NZD both fell by over 1.5%. Our most recent FX Monthly Outlook, published on 27 March, can be read here – FX Monthly Outlook: Not One Dimensional. In the Pacific performance has been more mixed. Over the past 30 days we have seen the PGK, VUV, SBD, and TOP fall against the USD, while the FJD and WST have posted minor gains. The impetus for the slight pull-back in USD strength was a weak non-farm payrolls report. The US economy added only 126k new jobs, compared to an estimated 245k. The market still expects the Federal Reserve to hike rates in 2015, however the conviction of this call came into question following the report. In China, data continues to print on the weaker side and expectations for further easing by the PBoC are high. In Europe, although the data has begun to trend a little more positively, it is coming from depressed levels, and the possibility of a disorderly Greek exit from the euro area has undermined the EUR. Furthermore, the ECB continues quantitative easing.

FIJI – FJD CROSS RATES

0.61

0.63

0.65

0.67

0.69

0.71

0.73

0.460.480.500.520.540.560.580.600.620.64

Oct 12 Apr 13 Oct 13 Apr 14 Oct 14 Apr 15FJD-USD FJD-AUDFJD-NZD (RHS) FJD-SGD (RHS)

PAPUA NEW GUINEA – PGK CROSS RATES

0.40

0.44

0.48

0.52

0.56

0.60

0.64

0.340.360.380.400.420.440.460.480.500.52

Oct 12 Apr 13 Oct 13 Apr 14 Oct 14 Apr 15PGK-USD PGK-AUDPGK-NZD (RHS) PGK-SGD (RHS)

SOLOMON ISLANDS – SBD CROSS RATES

5.3

5.5

5.7

5.9

6.1

6.3

5.6

6.0

6.4

6.8

7.2

7.6

8.0

Oct 12 Apr 13 Oct 13 Apr 14 Oct 14 Apr 15USD-SBD AUD-SBDNZD-SBD (RHS) SGD-SBD (RHS)

VANUATU – VUV CROSS RATES

71

73

75

77

79

81

83

85

7880828486889092949698

100102104

Oct 12 Apr 13 Oct 13 Apr 14 Oct 14 Apr 15USD-VUV AUD-VUVNZD-VUV (RHS) SGD-VUV (RHS)

TONGA – TOP CROSS RATES

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

1.45

1.50

1.55

1.60

1.401.441.481.521.561.601.641.681.721.761.801.841.881.921.962.00

Oct 12 Apr 13 Oct 13 Apr 14 Oct 14 Apr 15USD-TOP AUD-TOPNZD-TOP (RHS) SGD-TOP (RHS)

SAMOA – WST CROSS RATES

0.490.510.530.550.570.590.610.630.650.670.690.710.730.75

0.35

0.38

0.41

0.44

0.47

0.50

0.53

Oct 12 Apr 13 Oct 13 Apr 14 Oct 14 Apr 15WST-USD WST-AUDWST-NZD (RHS) WST-SGD (RHS)

Updated as of 13 April 2015 Source: Bloomberg, ANZ Research

ANZ Pacific Monthly / 15 April 2015 / 9 of 13

FX MARKET DEVELOPMENTS

For in-depth currency forecast commentary, please contact your ANZ representative.

Global FX ForecastsEurope EUR/USD 1.059 1.010 0.980 0.950 1.000 1.050 1.100 1.100Japan USD/JPY 120.49 123.00 124.00 125.00 126.00 127.00 128.50 130.00Switzerland USD/CHF 0.980 1.050 1.071 1.095 1.060 1.029 1.000 1.000Australia AUD/USD 0.759 0.740 0.730 0.720 0.710 0.710 0.700 0.700New Zealand NZD/USD 0.745 0.720 0.700 0.700 0.690 0.690 0.680 0.680United Kingdom GBP/USD 1.461 1.480 1.500 1.540 1.550 1.550 1.560 1.560

Pacific FX Forecasts Current Jun 15 Sep 15 Dec 15 Mar 16 Jun 16 Sep 16 Dec 16FJD/USD 0.485 0.474 0.468 0.464 0.462 0.464 0.462 0.462FJD/EUR 0.458 0.452 0.464 0.474 0.487 0.464 0.440 0.420FJD/AUD 0.639 0.624 0.633 0.636 0.642 0.654 0.651 0.660FJD/NZD 0.651 0.650 0.650 0.663 0.661 0.673 0.670 0.680FJD/GBP 0.332 0.320 0.312 0.302 0.298 0.300 0.296 0.296Policy Rate* 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

PGK/USD** 0.3725 0.3700 0.3650 0.3590 0.3595 0.3600 0.3605 0.3610PGK/EUR 0.3516 0.3524 0.3614 0.3663 0.3784 0.3600 0.3433 0.3282PGK/AUD 0.4911 0.4868 0.4932 0.4918 0.4993 0.5070 0.5077 0.5157PGK/NZD 0.4999 0.5068 0.5069 0.5129 0.5136 0.5217 0.5225 0.5309PGK/GBP 0.2550 0.2500 0.2433 0.2331 0.2319 0.2323 0.2311 0.2314Policy Rate*** 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25

WST/USD 0.402 0.394 0.393 0.391 0.390 0.388 0.387 0.385WST/EUR 0.379 0.376 0.389 0.399 0.410 0.388 0.368 0.350WST/AUD 0.529 0.519 0.531 0.536 0.541 0.547 0.545 0.550WST/NZD 0.539 0.540 0.546 0.559 0.557 0.563 0.561 0.567WST/GBP 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

USD/SBD 7.831 7.877 7.884 7.922 7.961 8.004 8.041 8.041EUR/SBD 8.295 8.271 7.963 7.764 7.563 8.004 8.443 8.845AUD/SBD 5.940 5.987 5.834 5.783 5.732 5.683 5.709 5.629NZD/SBD 5.835 5.750 5.676 5.545 5.573 5.523 5.548 5.468GBP/SBD 11.44 11.66 11.83 12.20 12.34 12.41 12.54 12.54

USD/TOP 2.010 2.055 2.090 2.100 2.110 2.120 2.120 2.120EUR/TOP 2.129 2.158 2.111 2.058 2.005 2.120 2.226 2.332AUD/TOP 1.525 1.562 1.547 1.533 1.519 1.505 1.505 1.484NZD/TOP 1.498 1.500 1.505 1.470 1.477 1.463 1.463 1.442GBP/TOP 2.94 3.04 3.14 3.23 3.27 3.29 3.31 3.31

USD/VUV 107.32 110.00 113.30 113.80 114.00 114.00 112.00 110.00EUR/VUV 113.68 115.50 114.43 111.52 108.30 114.00 117.60 121.00AUD/VUV 81.40 83.60 83.84 83.07 82.08 80.94 79.52 77.00NZD/VUV 79.96 80.30 81.58 79.66 79.80 78.66 77.28 74.80GBP/VUV 156.79 162.80 169.95 175.25 176.70 176.70 174.72 171.60Policy Rate^ 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.50 5.50 5.50

Jun 16 Sep 16 Dec 16Mar 16Dec 15Sep 15Jun 15CURRENT

Papua New Guinea

Fiji

Vanuatu

Tonga

Solomon Islands

Samoa

Note: the source of FX data is Bloomberg and the respective central banks in the Pacific. As the currencies are illiquid with wide bid/offer spreads, the rates published are only indicative.

* overnight policy rate

** The ‘current’ rate is now the BPNG mid-rate where recent policy measures by the Bank of Papua New Guinea have caused rapid adjustments to the FX market. *** Kina Facility Rate ^ Discount rate

Updated as of 13 April 2015

ANZ Pacific Monthly / 15 April 2015 / 10 of 13

COMMODITY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS

COMMODITY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS FIGURE 1. COMMODITY PRICE INDICES

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 15

(Ave

rage

201

3=10

0)

Oil (Tapis) Gold Copper Silver

Many of the themes in commodity markets remain unchanged. Oil markets continue to watch headlines around Iran, while US supplies show no sign of slowing. Oilseed prices weakened further as demand remains soft, while precious metal prices are likely to resume their decline as the USD starts to rise again. • An oversupplied US oil market will likely cap any

upside in prices. Oil drilling activity will continue to be a key focus, contributing significantly to swelling inventories. The lead time between current falling rig counts and lower oil production is delayed by 3-6 months as improved technologies and profitable hedging strategies are implemented. This suggests production should continue to rise over the second quarter to record high levels above 9.4mbbls/day. Rising Iranian exports following the preliminary nuclear deal could weigh on prices, but may have a marginal impact if sanctions are lifted gradually.

• Gold prices are set to resume their downtrend in the near-term. A brief respite from weakness was seen after the US Federal Reserve’s ‘dovish’ meeting in March, but we expect the effects to be temporary. A positive turnaround in US economic data is key, supporting a higher USD and lower gold price. Adequate physical inventories in China should mean that import demand underperforms for the next few months at least. Onshore premiums in the two key gold markets of China and India also indicate that there is no shortage of gold in the domestic markets.

• Palm oil prices, in USD, continue to languish at a six year low, around USD580/tonne. Demand signals remain soft as Malaysia exported just 1.18m tonnes in March, the lowest March total since 2007. Consumers may benefit from a continuing decline of soybean prices in the further course of 2015. World supplies are currently ample, and if weather conditions remain normal, the overhang of supply will increase substantially. This is a major downside risk factor for the oilseed market. As northern hemisphere plantings have not yet started, weather conditions over the next four months will be a key price determinant.

• Arabica coffee prices remain soft, but well supported above USc130/lb. Little has changed on the fundamental front, with no weather issues currently present and the condition of trees looking relatively good. Rising Brazilian output and a well-stocked market should keep prices on the defensive for the remainder of the year.

FIGURE 2. COMMODITY PRICE INDICES

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80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 15

(Ave

rage

201

3=10

0)

Coconut oil Palm oil Copra

FIGURE 3. COMMODITY PRICE INDICES

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 15

(Ave

rage

201

3=10

0)

Sugar Cocoa Coffee Rice Fish* Source: Bloomberg, World Bank, Haver, ANZ Research

*Fish prices are a proxy derived from shrimp prices

Price changes*

Oil (tapis) Gold Silver Copper Coc. oil

Palm oil Sugar Coffee Cocoa Rice Copra Fish

M/M 2.7% 3.5% 4.3% 3.0% -3.2% -6.6% 6.3% 6.9% -1.3% -3.3% 3.2% -0.7%3M/3M 26.4% -2.6% -4.3% 2.0% -8.8% -7.2% -13.3% -23.6% -7.0% -4.0% 3.1% -2.7%

Y/Y -47.0% -9.0% -18.4% -9.1% -20.2% -20.7% -27.7% -32.8% -7.2% -0.5% -7.3% -8.4%

Updated as of 13 April 2015 Source: Bloomberg, ANZ Research

ANZ Pacific Monthly / 15 April 2015 / 11 of 13

COMMODITY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS

ANZ PACIFIC COMMODITY PRICE INDEX (PCPI)

Commodity prices remain broadly depressed, with 25 out of the 30 commodities tracked showing no gain. Key pacific commodities such as food, fish, petrol, coconut oil, and cocoa all dropped this month, and this is reflected in the easing of both export and import PCPIs, although terms of trade generally stabilised. The only exception to this norm is PNG’s export PCPI, which is improving on better LNG prices. Looking forward, an oversupplied market should cap an upside to petrol prices, despite a fall in oil rig counts.

PNG Fiji Timor Samoa Sol. Tonga Van.Export, y/y -14.3 -14.1 -46.8 -15.8 -14.4 -16.1 -15.1Export, m/m 0.4 -2.2 -3.0 -2.7 -1.1 -1.8 -4.3Import, y/y -37.6 -37.6 -24.4 -32.0 -37.3 -15.4 -28.7Import, m/m -3.1 -2.4 -2.1 -2.0 -2.9 -1.0 -1.9

ANZ Pacific Commodity Price Index (ANZ PCPI) Mar 2015

PAPUA NEW GUINEA – COMMODITY PRICE INDICES

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 15

2010 = 10020

10 =

100

Terms of Trade (RHS) Exports Imports

FIJI – COMMODITY PRICE INDICES

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90

100

110

120

130

140

150

60

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80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 15

2010 = 10020

10 =

100

Terms of Trade (RHS) Exports Imports

TIMOR-LESTE – COMMODITY PRICE INDICES

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 15

2010 = 10020

10 =

100

Terms of Trade (RHS) Exports Imports

SAMOA – COMMODITY PRICE INDICES

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 15

2010 = 10020

10 =

100

Terms of Trade (RHS) Exports Imports

SOLOMON ISLANDS – COMMODITY PRICE INDICES

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 15

2010 = 10020

10 =

100

Terms of Trade (RHS) Exports Imports

TONGA – COMMODITY PRICE INDICES

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 15

2010 = 10020

10 =

100

Terms of Trade (RHS) Exports Imports

Source: World Bank, Haver, ANZ Research

VANUATU – COMMODITY PRICE INDICES

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 15

2010 = 10020

10 =

100

Terms of Trade (RHS) Exports Imports

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