“outcomes for soil carbon · viscarra-rossel 2013. internal report. a comparison of four methods...
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“Outcomes for Soil Carbon from the first ERF Auction.”.
Dr Terry McCoskerExecutive ChairmanCarbon Link Limited
July 2015
Contacts: Ignatius Verbeek, COO, [email protected] McCosker, [email protected]
Issues to cover
• The first ERF Auction
• What will it be worth to Graziers?
• How will the project proceed?
• How will graziers make it happen?
• Is there still room to be involved?
Wealth Transfer (or Mining?)Melbourne
“A Nation that destroys its SOIL,
Destroys Itself.”
Franklin Roosevelt
The Carbon Game
THE CFI -2011
FIRST ERF AUCTIONApril 2015
Issues to cover
The First ERF Auction
3.4 million t CO2e in 10 year forward contract with ERF &
Corporate Carbon
The ERF Auction
Partners
• Corporate Carbon, RAF, Carbon Link and 350 Graziers.
Methodology
• Sequestering Carbon in Soils in Grazing Systems.
Risk Management
• Corporate Carbon Supply Guarantee
Issues to cover
What will it be worth to Farmers?
Estimated Nett Income @ $11/tTasmania S. Small CQ Buffel Rangeland
Project Area (ha) 10,000 1,000 7,000 20,000
Annual Sequestration (t SOC/ha/an) 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.07
Total Annual CO2e 55,050 5,505 12,845 5,138
10 Year Gross Income $6,055,500 $605,550 $1,412,950 $565,180
Costs
Feasability $5,000 $5,000 $5,000 $5,000
Baseline $50,000 $25,000 $56,000 $60,000
Project Audit $10,000 $5,000 $7,000 $10,000
Remeasure Soil x2 $50,000 $25,000 $56,000 $60,000
Verification Audit x 2 $10,000 $10,000 $8,000 $10,000
Sub-Total $125,000 $70,000 $132,000 $145,000
Govt Discount (25 yr perm) 25% $1,513,875 $151,388 $353,238 $141,295
Annualized Av Nett per ha $44.17 $38.42 $13.25 $1.39
The average annual GROSS MARGIN from CARBON is $16.92 per ha in this example
Is it worth it (1t C/ha/yr)?
Nett Projected Annual Income ($000) on 3,500ha @ $10/t @ 25% buffer
Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Yr 7 Yr 8 Yr 9 Yr 10
-$42 $21 $21 $21 $21 $299 $21 $21 $21 $21
Yr 11 Yr 12 Yr 13 Yr 14 Yr 15 Yr 16 Yr 17 Yr 18 Yr 19 Yr 20
$299 $21 $21 $21 $21 $299 $21 $21 $21 $21
$721,000 for 11 years
Annual average GM for QLD cattle producers over the last 5 years = $17.30/ha
Irrigated Cotton At Narrabri – Change at Depth
Rochester, Ian J (2010) J Soil and Tillage Research
2. C Change in Irrigated Cotton
Soil Depth Change Change
(cm) (t C /ha/Yr) (%)
0-13 0.3 14%
30-60 1.5 67%
60-90 0.4 19%
TOTAL 2.2 100%
Forced to use 1950s technology
Write off 25% of the Patients
Why not Move into this Century with
Lower Cost, Higher Accuracy and less
Carbon Death?
Indicative Sampling costs.
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
- 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
$/h
a/sa
mp
le r
ou
nd
Project area (ha)
Measurement Cost $/ha/sample round
Current CFI Advanced systems
Issues to cover
How will the Project Proceed?
1. Feasibility SurveyWhat is involved?
Is it feasible?
What will it cost?
How much will I make?
What do I need to do now?
How does a carbon project
work?
When do I get paid?
Who pays me?
Eligible Interest Holder Consent• Bank and Landowner Consent (Ministerial if on
Leasehold land).Project Management Actions• Historic management actions during the 5 years
before• The new management actions that will be
implemented as part of the project• How the project management actions could
achieve the outcomes specified• Actions must NOT commence before the start
activity date
2. Project Establishment
NEW Management Activities
(a) converting from continuous cropping to permanent pasture;
(b) undertaking pasture cropping;
(c) managing pasture through:(i) implementing or changing pasture irrigation;
(ii) applying organic or synthetic fertiliser to pastures;
(iii) rejuvenating pastures, including through seeding; and
(d) managing grazing through:(i) changing stocking rates;
(ii) altering the timing, duration and intensity of grazing.
2. Project Establishment
Eligible Land
• Under pasture for the previous 5 years.
• Land under crop for the previous 5 years
Project Boundaries Delineated
• Mapped boundaries of all Carbon Estimation Areas (CEA’s).
• Mapped boundaries of all Carbon Exclusion areas.
• At least 3 strata for each CEA
2. Project Establishment
StartCannot begin until after Project start date.A. Stratification 10 VARIANTS or STRATA
3. Baseline
65ha per DAY to 800ha per HOUR
Sampling design
Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 34
Design-based approach with
probability samples within
strata optimized to provide
good spatial coverage.
Viscarra-Rossel 2013. Internal Report
B. Coring
10 per
day
60 per
day
3. Baseline
C. Soil Analysis
3. Baseline
NIR
LECO
CT SCAN
D. Calculating SOIL Organic Carbon
1. FIND THE DATA
2. CRUNCH THE NUMBERS
3. GET THE ANSWERS
3. Baseline
E. Calculating Carbon DIOXIDE
∆𝑪𝒃𝒔 = ∆𝑪𝒃,𝒔𝒐𝒊𝒍 + ∆𝑪𝒃,𝑨𝑾𝑩
𝑪𝒃𝒆 = 𝑪𝒃,𝑳𝑺 + 𝑪𝒃,𝒇𝒆𝒓𝒕 + 𝑪𝒃,𝒇𝒊𝒓𝒆
𝑪𝒔𝒐𝒊𝒍,𝒊= { 𝑽𝒊 − 𝑽𝒙𝒊 × 𝝆𝒊 ×%𝑪𝒎 ×𝟒𝟒
𝟏𝟐÷ 𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎} − 𝑪𝒙𝒊
𝑪𝒔𝒐𝒊𝒍,𝒊 = 𝑽𝒊 − 𝑽𝒙𝒊 ×%𝑪𝒗 ×𝟒𝟒
𝟏𝟐÷ 𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎 − 𝑪𝒙𝒊
If 𝑨𝑼𝒅𝒑 = 𝑨𝑼𝒅𝒃 then
𝑪𝑳𝑺𝑳 = 𝟎
If 𝑨𝑼𝒅𝒑 > 𝑨𝑼𝒅𝒃 then
𝑪𝑳𝑺𝑳
=𝑪𝒍𝒔,𝒑
𝑨𝑼𝒑× 𝑨𝑼𝒅𝒑 − 𝑨𝑼𝒅𝒃
If 𝑨𝑼𝒅𝒑 < 𝑨𝑼𝒅𝒃 then
𝑪𝑳𝑺𝑳
=𝑪𝒍𝒔,𝒃𝑨𝑼𝒃
× 𝑨𝑼𝒅𝒃 − 𝑨𝑼𝒅𝒑
𝑬𝑪𝑶𝟐𝒆,𝒎= 𝑮𝑾𝑷𝑪𝑯𝟒 × 𝑬𝑪𝑯𝟒𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒊𝒄 + 𝑬𝑪𝑯𝟒𝒎𝒂𝒏𝒖𝒓𝒆+ 𝑮𝑾𝑷𝑵𝟐𝑶 × 𝑬𝑵𝟐𝑶𝒇𝒆𝒂𝒄𝒂𝒍 + 𝑬𝑵𝟐𝑶𝒖𝒓𝒊𝒏𝒆
3. Baseline
• Down Hole measurement
• Satellite Interpretation
• Rapid Drilling Technology
• On Farm soil analyses
New Concepts to Reduce costs
Comparisons of measurement approaches
CFI Satellite What’s possibleSatellite latest
A taste of what is coming
% bare ground 1987 to present SOC (t/ha 0-10cm)
Results in 5cm slices from one core
Viscarra-Rossel 2013. Internal Report
A Comparison of four methods of Sampling soil (30 cores)
Random Random Random Stratified
1 Bulk
Density
Average
Bulk D
Individual
Bulk D
Random +
Sensors
Mean 23.25 24.63 23.99 24.49
Variance 18.25 28.23 11.02 0.11
SE 4.27 5.31 3.32 0.33
(Soil Organic Carbon t/ha (0 - 30cm)
Viscarra-Rossel 2013. Internal Report
Issues to cover
How do farmers make it happen?
C
ECOSYSTEM
SERVICES
POOR MANAGEMENT
= SICK ECOSYSTEM
= POOR PRODUCTION
C
ECOSYSTEM
SERVICES
GOOD MANAGEMENT
= ABUNDANCE
An Example – SW Qld
Neighbour 1
Northern Neighbour
Example
3rd Neighbour
Example
GRAZING MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLES
Summary
1. PLAN, MONITOR & MANAGE GRAZING
2. PLANTS NEED ADEQUATE REST
3. MATCH STOCKING RATE to CARRYING CAPACITY
4. MANAGE LIVESTOCK EFFECTIVELY
5. MAXIMUM STOCK DENSITY for MINIMUM TIME
6. MANAGE for BIODIVERSITY
Principle 1.Plan, Monitor & Manage
PLAN your grazing: especially plant and animal
requirements.
MONITOR your grazing: especially rest period, CC, SR
& animal performance.
MANAGE your grazing: especially rest and SR.
Aug 2006
Sept 2007
Nov 2008 – 4.9SDH/100mm
Oct 2012 – 16.7 SDH/100mm
March 2013
BENEFITS OF A GRAZING CHART
Accurate feed budgetingMatching SR:CC
PlanningProjectingScenarios
Paddock yieldsEconomic decision making
Principle 2.Plants Need Adequate Rest
The principle is that plants
require a recovery period
which:
a) during the growth season
means the time it takes to
regrow to the top of Phase II.
This is determined by rate of
growth, and
b) during the non-growth period
is the period of physiological
rest required to ensure root
reserves of energy are
maintained.
ie. fast growth = fast moves
slow growth = slow moves
OVERGRAZING & UNDERSTOCKING
SIGMOID GROWTH CURVE
TIME
YIELD
(kg/ha)
(SDH)
Quantity
I IIIII
The Effect of Rest on Plant & Root Growth
Overgrazed Cocksfoot Well Grazed Cocksfoot
Principle 3.Match Stocking Rate to Carrying Capacity
The Principle is that
Stocking Rate must
be matched to the
Carrying Capacity. No
greater than 40% (C4)
or 60% (C3) of
productivity should
be planned to be
eaten.
WHAT is CARRYING CAPACITY?
IT IS WHAT
GROWS UPFROM THE SOIL
IN RESPONSE
TO RAIN AND
TEMPERATURE
WHAT is STOCKING RATE?
IT IS WHAT
COMES
DOWN FROM
ABOVE AND IS
DETERMINED BY
THE LSUs or
DSEs.
SR < CC SR = CC SR > CC
UNDERSTOCKED OVERSTOCKED
A MISTAKE
…MIGHT HAVE SERIOUS CONSEQUENCES
Principle 4.MANAGE LIVESTOCK EFFECTIVELY
The Principal is that animals should be managed
effectively (this includes _______________)
MAJOR INFLUENCES on ANIMAL PRODUCTION
NUTRITION
WATER QUALITY & QUANTITY
DISTANCE WALKED to FEED
HEALTH (Disease, parasites)
TIMING of REPRODUCTION
GRAZING MANAGEMENT
GRAZING FACTORS AFFECTING ANIMAL PERFORMANCE
1. STOCKING RATE EXCEEDS CARRYING CAPACITY
2. GRAZE PERIOD TOO LONG
3. UTILIZATION RATE TOO HIGH
4. TOTAL QUANTITY TOO LOW
5. REST PERIOD TOO LONG
6. STRESSED LIVESTOCK
Principle 5.High Stock Density
The principle is that maximum stock density
should be applied for the minimum time.
EVEN
UTILIZATIONANIMAL IMPACT
THE TWO BENEFITS OF STOCK DENSITY
Principle 6.Biodiversity
The principle is to use diversity of plants and
animals to improve Ecosystem Services.
Dukes Plains – Theodore, Q
Brigalow (40%)
225 SDH
$113/ha
Brigalow (10%)
166 SDH
$84/ha
Eucalypt (95%)
130 SDH
$65/ha
Softwood Scrub (45%)
196 SDH
$98/ha
LOSS due to Clearing
= $342/ha over 16 years
(excl cost of Clearing)
The New Paradigm
Grazing Management is the KEY – separate TREE
Effects from GRAZING Effects
SUMMARY• Carbon Farming IS a Reality
• It has the potential to change income
• It has potential to help with seasonal cashflow fluctuations.
• It WILL require a change of management and control of stock.
• It is OPTIONAL, as is survival.
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