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Page 1: “Replicating North American Shale Success in China ... ConocoPhillips Nelson.pdf · Source: U.S. Department of Energy, EIA, Annual Energy Review 2013, Table 5.1b Tight Oil Revolution

Mark Nelson U.S.-China Oil & Gas Industry Forum

September 25, 2014

“Replicating North American Shale Success in China:

Regulatory and Commercial Issues and Opportunities”

September 25, 2014

Page 2: “Replicating North American Shale Success in China ... ConocoPhillips Nelson.pdf · Source: U.S. Department of Energy, EIA, Annual Energy Review 2013, Table 5.1b Tight Oil Revolution

Cautionary Statement The following presentation includes forward-looking statements. These statements relate to future events, such as anticipated revenues, earnings, business strategies, competitive position or other aspects of our operations or operating results. Actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in such forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict such as oil and gas prices; operational hazards and drilling risks; potential failure to achieve, and potential delays in achieving expected reserves or production levels from existing and future oil and gas development projects; unsuccessful exploratory activities; unexpected cost increases or technical difficulties in constructing, maintaining or modifying company facilities; international monetary conditions and exchange controls; potential liability for remedial actions under existing or future environmental regulations or from pending or future litigation; limited access to capital or significantly higher cost of capital related to illiquidity or uncertainty in the domestic or international financial markets; general domestic and international economic and political conditions, as well as changes in tax, environmental and other laws applicable to ConocoPhillips’ business and other economic, business, competitive and/or regulatory factors affecting ConocoPhillips’ business generally as set forth in ConocoPhillips’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Use of non-GAAP financial information – This presentation may include non-GAAP financial measures, which help facilitate comparison of company operating performance across periods and with peer companies. Any non-GAAP measures included herein will be accompanied by a reconciliation to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure in an appendix. Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors – The SEC permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved, probable and possible reserves. We use the term "resource" in this presentation that the SEC’s guidelines prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the oil and gas disclosures in our Form 10-K and other reports and filings with the SEC. Copies are available from the SEC and from the ConocoPhillips website.

Page 3: “Replicating North American Shale Success in China ... ConocoPhillips Nelson.pdf · Source: U.S. Department of Energy, EIA, Annual Energy Review 2013, Table 5.1b Tight Oil Revolution

The Unconventional Resource Story

Current U.S. Story: Unconventional Resources

Then And Now: An Energy Revolution

Current Results and Benefits

Facilitating the Shale Gas Revolution in China

Basis for China Success: Regulatory, Data, and Commercial

A Shared Vision

3

Page 4: “Replicating North American Shale Success in China ... ConocoPhillips Nelson.pdf · Source: U.S. Department of Energy, EIA, Annual Energy Review 2013, Table 5.1b Tight Oil Revolution

The U.S. Story: Lower 48 Unconventional Reservoirs

4

Page 5: “Replicating North American Shale Success in China ... ConocoPhillips Nelson.pdf · Source: U.S. Department of Energy, EIA, Annual Energy Review 2013, Table 5.1b Tight Oil Revolution

Then and Now: An Energy Revolution of Enormous Scale

Year 2000 Beliefs

The U.S. is running out of natural gas

U.S. oil production peaked in 1970, has fallen ever since, and will continue to do so

Manufacturing going abroad

Global resource scarcity

Year 2014 Realities

The U.S. has over a 100-year supply of natural gas

U.S. oil production growing rapidly, with no end to growth in sight

Job creation and growth

Global resource abundance

5

Page 6: “Replicating North American Shale Success in China ... ConocoPhillips Nelson.pdf · Source: U.S. Department of Energy, EIA, Annual Energy Review 2013, Table 5.1b Tight Oil Revolution

The Gas Side of the Revolution

6

Shale Gas

Non-Shale Gas

Barnett

Montney

Eagle Ford

Horn River

Marcellus

Liard Basin

Fayetteville

Haynesville Permian Basin

20

30

40

50

60

70

20

00

20

03

20

06

20

09

20

12

Unconventional

Conventional

Production Data Source : U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. Natural Gas Production (bcf per day)

Page 7: “Replicating North American Shale Success in China ... ConocoPhillips Nelson.pdf · Source: U.S. Department of Energy, EIA, Annual Energy Review 2013, Table 5.1b Tight Oil Revolution

Lower 48 crude

Alaska crude

NGLs

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013

Mill

ion

Bar

rels

pe

r D

ay

U.S. Oil, Condensate and Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) Production

The Shale Gas Revolution Has Spread to "Tight Oil"

Source: U.S. Department of Energy, EIA, Annual Energy Review 2013, Table 5.1b

Tight Oil Revolution

"Peak Oil"

7

Page 8: “Replicating North American Shale Success in China ... ConocoPhillips Nelson.pdf · Source: U.S. Department of Energy, EIA, Annual Energy Review 2013, Table 5.1b Tight Oil Revolution

Benefits From Unconventional Development

8

Energy Security Economic Environmental

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35 Quadrillion BTUs

Chemicals & Manufacturing 5,200

5,400

5,600

5,800

6,000

6,200

1995 2000 2005 2010

Other Benefits of Natural Gas

• Clean-burning

• Small water usage footprint

• No solid waste

• Enables wind & solar power

Source = U.S. EIA, From Total Energy

-12%

U.S. Net Energy Imports U.S. Jobs and GDP U.S. CO2 Emissions (MTPA)

19

83

19

93

20

03

20

13

Source = U.S. EIA

Driving Growth

Page 9: “Replicating North American Shale Success in China ... ConocoPhillips Nelson.pdf · Source: U.S. Department of Energy, EIA, Annual Energy Review 2013, Table 5.1b Tight Oil Revolution

Summary From U.S. Experience

Unconventionals have opened up an energy revolution in the U.S.

Resulted in huge benefits to the American economy

A very different exploration process was needed to make unconventional resources successful

Large adjustments in policy and regulatory structures were needed to make it work

9

Page 10: “Replicating North American Shale Success in China ... ConocoPhillips Nelson.pdf · Source: U.S. Department of Energy, EIA, Annual Energy Review 2013, Table 5.1b Tight Oil Revolution

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2010 2011 2012 2013

Adaptability: COP’s Eagle Ford Experience

37% reduction in drilling days

40% reduction in completion unit cost

75% of 2014 wells benefit from pad drilling

Leveraging size to realize contract savings

Testing new drilling/completion technologies

Completion Cost Efficiency2

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2010 2011 2012 2013

Drilling Cost Efficiency1

1Comparison to 2010 average days spud to spud. 2Comparison to 2010 average completion cost per unit of proppant.

41% Improvement

10

Page 11: “Replicating North American Shale Success in China ... ConocoPhillips Nelson.pdf · Source: U.S. Department of Energy, EIA, Annual Energy Review 2013, Table 5.1b Tight Oil Revolution

Facilitating China’s Unconventional Resource Development

11

"It's not the strongest species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the most responsive to change".

-Charles Darwin On the Origin of Species 1859

Can the North American success be replicated in China?

Regulatory commercial hurdles and possible solutions

Potential benefits to China of a shale gas revolution

Basis for success:

Regulatory: Flexible and adaptable

Data: Greater data availability

Markets: Market access

Page 12: “Replicating North American Shale Success in China ... ConocoPhillips Nelson.pdf · Source: U.S. Department of Energy, EIA, Annual Energy Review 2013, Table 5.1b Tight Oil Revolution

Regulatory: Overall Development Program (ODP)

12

Overall Development Program

Designed for fully appraised,

conventional fields

Identifies development plan, facility design,

technology, well spacing, cost estimates, etc

Compliance document

Other documents require modification

Environmental Impact Assessment

Shale Gas Resource Assessment

Needed: Aligned government approval

documents and processes with adaptive

approach to unconventional resources

The “Rolling ODP”

Page 13: “Replicating North American Shale Success in China ... ConocoPhillips Nelson.pdf · Source: U.S. Department of Energy, EIA, Annual Energy Review 2013, Table 5.1b Tight Oil Revolution

13

Regulatory: Optimizing the Development Program

Eagle Ford Well Spacing Pilot Design

Map view

Evaluating Upside

Lower Eagle Ford 40-acre2

Upper Eagle Ford/Austin

Chalk

2014 Transition to

High/Low

2.5 BBOE EUR

2013

Lower Eagle Ford 80-

acre1 Single Layer

1.8 BBOE EUR

Critical development decisions include

Well length

Completion design

Well spacing (vertical and horizontal)

Experiments can accelerate learning

Learning from the experiences

of other operators

Data in public domain

Data trades

Quick decisions and implementation

Page 14: “Replicating North American Shale Success in China ... ConocoPhillips Nelson.pdf · Source: U.S. Department of Energy, EIA, Annual Energy Review 2013, Table 5.1b Tight Oil Revolution

Regulatory: Production Sharing Contract Structure

14

Chinese PSC has been a successful model for over 30 years

Assuring the PSC structure aligns with the realities of shale

Assuring key definitions are aligned with government statements

Governance, decision-making and adaptability

Relinquishment aligned with unconventional resource development

Government incentives flow to all investors

Current Chinese PSC clauses exist to address many of these issues

非常规 Fei Chang Gui Unconventional

非常贵 Fei Chang Gui Very Expensive

Page 15: “Replicating North American Shale Success in China ... ConocoPhillips Nelson.pdf · Source: U.S. Department of Energy, EIA, Annual Energy Review 2013, Table 5.1b Tight Oil Revolution

Data: Data access in China

15

Access to existing data critical to North America’s Shale Gas Revolution

Investors could place educated bets

Most states require submittal of certain data to the public domain

Chinese data currently held tightly by NOCs or as state secrets

Obtaining approvals for release of data has been time consuming

Transferring data from China to use at global centers is challenging

Liberalizing access and usage of data will accelerate learning and application of technology

Norway

Western Canada

Eagle Ford

Page 16: “Replicating North American Shale Success in China ... ConocoPhillips Nelson.pdf · Source: U.S. Department of Energy, EIA, Annual Energy Review 2013, Table 5.1b Tight Oil Revolution

Markets: Gas Commercialization Principles

Pricing reform and access to transparent pricing

Central Government Incremental City Gate Pricing now being published

Level playing field for gas producers

Transportation access at fair and reasonable tariff structures

Restructuring pipeline ownership rules

Establishment of access rights for third parties

Establishment of a pipeline regulator

Building similar market access issues for gas producers in China as experienced by Chinese investors in North America

16

Page 17: “Replicating North American Shale Success in China ... ConocoPhillips Nelson.pdf · Source: U.S. Department of Energy, EIA, Annual Energy Review 2013, Table 5.1b Tight Oil Revolution

Shale Gas in China: A Shared Vision

Abundant supplies of clean energy to China

Accelerating the advent of the shale gas revolution in China

Increasing gas supplies while lowering costs

Benefits to the Chinese People

Economic: More tax revenues and jobs

Energy Security: Home grown energy supplies and infrastructure

Environmental “Clean energy for crowded places”:

A shared vision of adaptation and evolution

Continuously apply global technology and operational breakthroughs

Cooperation for a more adaptive and effective regulatory system

Sharing existing expertize and knowledge

17 17

Page 18: “Replicating North American Shale Success in China ... ConocoPhillips Nelson.pdf · Source: U.S. Department of Energy, EIA, Annual Energy Review 2013, Table 5.1b Tight Oil Revolution

Mark Nelson U.S.-China Oil & Gas Industry Forum

Thank You!

September 25, 2014