“understanding climate change from dataclimatechange.cs.umn.edu/docs/ws13_sorooshian.pdf ·...
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Ensuring Water in a Changing World
NSF Expeditions in Computing:
Understanding climate Change – 2013 Annual workshop
Northwestern Univ. Evanston IL. August 16th, 2013
“Understanding Climate Change From Data -
Perspectives from Hydroclimate Modeling and
Data Assimilation.”
Soroosh Sorooshian
Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing - University of California Irvine
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine and many more …
S. Sellars
University of California Irvine (UCI) Research Team: Present and Recent Past
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Big Challenge
Adequacy of Hydrologic
Observations for model input
and Validation
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
A Key Requirement!
Precipitation Measurement is one of
the KEY
hydrometeorologic Challenges
Push towards High Resolution ( Spatial and Temporal) Global
Observations and Modeling
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
2 Precipitation Scenarios with different Temporal properties
Monthly Total
100 mm
100 mm
A
B
Idea from: K. Trenberth, NCAR
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Temporal Scale Importance: Daily Precip. at 2 stations
0
20
40
60
1 3 5 7 9 11131517192123252729
Rai
nfa
ll R
ate
(m
m/d
ay)
Days
0
20
40
60
1 3 5 7 9 11131517192123252729
Rai
nfa
ll R
ate
(m
m/d
ay)
Days
Monthly total: 100 mm Frequency: 67 % Intensity: 5 mm/day
Monthly total: 100 mm Frequency: 6.7 % Intensity: 50 mm/day
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
2 Rain gages with different Temporal properties
0
20
40
1 6 11 16 21 26
0
20
40
1 6 11 16 21 26Frequency 6.7%
Intensity 50.0 mm
Frequency 67%
Intensity 5.0 mm
Monthly
Amount 100 mm
Amount 100 mm
local Floods
Stream bed Recharge
soil moisture replenished
Little or no runoff
A
B
Idea from: K. Trenberth, NCAR
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Precipitation Observations: Which to trust??
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Number of range gauges per grid box. These boxes are 2x2 degrees
(Source: Global Precipitation Climatology Project)
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Coverage of the WSR-88D and gauge networks
3 km AGL 2 km AGL 1 km AGL
Maddox, et al., 2002
- Daily precipitation
- Gages (1 station per 600 km^2 )
- Hourly coverage even more sparse
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Satellite-Based Precipitation:
a000174.mpeg
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Satellite-Based Rainfall Estimation: Promising !
Observations from space: Near-continuous, global coverage,
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
1) Using GEO satellites
(Infrared/Visible channels)
Advantage:
- Good temporal and spatial resolution
(30 min or less, 4 km)
- very good coverage
Disadvantage:
-Receives mostly cloud –top information
-Indirect estimation of precipitation.
Satellite precipitation retrieval instruments
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
High level: 6 km or more
High level: 6 km or more
Low level : 2 km or less
Problems with IR only algorithm
Assumption: higher cloud colder more precipitation
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
2) Microwave Advantage:
- Responds directly to hydrometeors
and penetrates into clouds
- More accurate estimates
Satellite precipitation retrieval instruments
Disadvantage:
-low temporal and spatial resolution (~5-50km)
-Heterogeneous emissivity over land:
(e.g., problem with warm rainfall over land)
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Satellite precipitation retrieval instruments
3) Active Radar Advantage:
-More accurate
- good spatial resolution
Disadvantage:
- Poor temporal resolution
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Current Microwave Satellite Configurations
Source: Huffman et al. 2007
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
PERSIANN System Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks
Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information
using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN)
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
PERSIANN System “Estimation”
Global IR
MW-RR
(TRMM, NOAA, DMSP Satellites)
Merged Products
- Hourly rainfall
- 6 hourly rainfall
- Daily rainfall
- Monthly rainfall
ANN
Error
Detection
Quality
Control
Merging
Sate
llit
e D
ata
G
rou
nd
Ob
se
rva
tio
ns
Products
High Temporal-Spatial Res.
Cloud Infrared Images
Feed
back
Hourly Rain Estimate Sampling
MW-PR Hourly Rain Rates
(GSFC, NASA; NESDIS, NOAA)
Hourly Global Precipitation Estimates
Gauges Coverage
GPCC & CPC
Gauge Analysis
Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using
Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN)
Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
(CPC, NOAA)
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
High Resolution Precipitation Estimates
PERSIANN-CCS
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Stages of a Convective Storm and Rainfall Distribution
TOWERING CUMULUS STAGE MATURE STAGE DISSIPATING STAGE
200 220 240 260 280 0
25
50
75
100
Tb oK
Rain
Rate
(m
m/h
r)
200 220 240 260 280 0
25
50
75
100
Tb oK
Rain
Rate
(m
m/h
r)
200 220 240 260 280 0
25
50
75
100
Tb oK
Rain
Rate
(m
m/h
r)
200 220 240 260 280 0
25
50
75
100
Tb oK
Rain
Rate
(m
m/h
r)
200 220 240 260 280 0
25
50
75
100
Tb oK
Rain
Rate
(m
m/h
r)
Towering Stage Mature Stage Dissipating Stage
Low/Warm Cloud
Little/No Rain Growing Higher/Colder
Mild Rain
Growing to Great Height
Heavy Rain High Anvil Cloud
Mild Rain
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Tb=220K
Tb=235K
Tb=253K
t=t0 t=t1 t=t2 t=tk
c1
c2
ck
Tb (K)
R (mm/h)
200 300 0
80
],,[)( texturepatchgeometrypatchcoldnesspatchVvectorFeaature
T220K
T235K
T253K
KV220
KV253
KV235
T253K, t=tk
Patch Classification Patch Feature Extraction
Image Segmentation
Rainfall Estimation
Cloud Segmentation Algorithm
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
High Resolution Precipitation Estimates
from PERSIANN-Cloud Classification System
Radar Observation (2 km AGL) PERSIANN-CCS Estimates
4km x 4km, 3-hour accumulated precipitation
Study Area
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
4km, 30 min. global Rainfall Estimates
from Multiple Satellites
Many Features provided to users
with Public Domain Software.
Real Time Global Data: Cooperation With UNESCO
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
PERSIANN Satellite Product On Google Earth
http://chrs.web.uci.edu/
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Validation and Application of Satellite
Products
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
US Daily Precipitation Validation Page
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/janowiak/us_web.html
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Multi–spectral images: Will combining LEO(PMW) and GEO (VIS/IR) Satellite
Imagery improve Precipitation Estimates?
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
• Currently many sensors provide multi-spectral images with high spatial
and temporal resolution.
• SEVIRI is a sensor on Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite
that has 12 spectral bands.
• In Approx. 2015, ABI sensor on GOES-R will provide 16 spectral
bands.
•Together a great opportunity to investigate the role of multi-spectral
data for precipitation estimation
The ABI (Advanced Baseline Imager) on GOES-R
Figure courtesy of ITT Industries
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Relative-frequency dist. of different channels (rain / no-rain) conditions
No Rain
Rain
(0.65 μm) (3.9 μm) (6.7 μm)
(10.8 μm) (13.3 μm)
By counting satellite pixels under rain and no-rain conditions we can plot the relative frequency curves
for each spectral band. These curves indicate that different spectral channels show different capabilities to
distinguish between rain and no-rain pixels
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Case Study: Hurricane Ernesto August 30, 2006
Hit Under Estimation Over Estimation
Behrangi et al (2009 a & b)
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
PERSIANN Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR)
33 Years of Multi-Satellite, High-Resolution, Near-Global, Daily
Precipitation Data Record
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
PERSIANN-CDR Algorithm
GridSat-B1 IRWIN High Temporal-Spatial Res.
Cloud Infrared Images
Spatiotemporal
Accumulation
PERSIANN Monthly Rainfall (2.5ox2.5
o)
Adjusted PERSIANN 3-Hourly
Rainfall (0.25ox0.25o)
PERSIANN Hourly Rainfall
(0.25ox0.25
o)
Artificial Neural Network
GPCP Bias
Adjustment GPCP Monthly Precipitation (2.5
ox2.5
o)
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Preliminary Tests (Aug. 2013)
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Daily Comparisons
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Devils are in details …
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
PERSIANN-CONNECT
8-13-2013
University of California, Irvine
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
*Sellars, S., P. Nguyen, W. Chu, X. Gao, K. Hsu, and S. Sorooshian (2013),
Computational Earth Science: Big Data Transformed Into Insight, EOS Trans. AGU, 94(32),277
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
• PERSIANN CONNected precipitation objECT
– PERSIANN-CONNECT
• Connectivity algorithm transforms data into 4D “objects” in
time and space
– Latitude, Longitude, Time and Intensity
• Allows “object” population statistics to be discovered and
analyzed – Teleconnections with Climate Indices?
Transforming Big Data Into Insight
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
• Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN)
• Hourly bias corrected PERSIANN w/GPCP data
• 0.25 degree
• 600 North - 600 South
• 01 March 2000 – 1st January 2011
PERSIANN
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Tim
e
4D Object Characteristics
*Image courtesy of Dr. Wei Chu (CHRS)
B A
Physical Based Characteristics:
• Duration (hr)
• Max Intensity (mm/hr)
• Speed (km/hr)
• Centroid (lat/lon)
• Volume (m^3)
• and many more…
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
• All objects and characteristics are stored in a publically
available PostgreSQL database
– http://chrs.web.uci.edu/research/voxel/index.html
Online PERSIANN-CONNECT Database Access
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Large-Scale Irrigation and Incorporation in Models
Impact of Irrigation
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Modeling the effects of irrigation on regional hydroclimate
Previous studies:
1) Based on temperature variation
2) Assuming soil water at field capacity (saturation)
• the modeled soil layers are kept at field capacity or at full
saturation during the simulation runs (e.g.Adegoke, et al.
2003; Haddand et al. 2006; Kueppers at al. 2007)
Our study
Implementing a more realistic irrigation method
recommended by Hanson et al. (2004)
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
MM5-R
122W 120W
Mean skin surface temp. at daytime in June, July and August, 2007.
MODIS
39N
36N
122W 120W
Skin Temp. (oC)
MM5-C NARR
122W 120W 122W 120W
Adding irrigation into RCM (MM5), Improves the model’s ability to
simulate, more closely, the temperature patterns observed by MODIS
Sorooshian et al, (JGR 2011)
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Irrigation areas
122W 120W
39N
36N
CIMIS stations
“Observed” vs “Model-Generated’’ Data
Studies over California’s Central
Valley Irrigation Region Sorooshian et al. 2011 & 2012
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
NARR
122W 119W
2007 JJA Monthly ET (mm)
MODIS-UW
39N
36N
122W 119W
GLDAS/Noah
122W 119W
NLDAS2
122W 119W
MODIS-UMT
122W 119W
Li et al, 2011
Actual ET Estimates From Different Data sets– JJA 2007
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
• ET Underestimation by MM5 control run is roughly about 10
million Ac-Ft of water/yr
• ET Overestimation by MM5 with “full-saturation” irrigation is
about 6.5 Million Ac-Ft/yr
• Use of the realistic irrigation scheme results in only 1.5 Million
Ac-Ft/yr of overestimation.
placed in Societal context :
Roughly speaking, the amount of ET underestimation
equals supply requirement of 13 million households and
the overestimation covers the needs of 9 million
households per year.
In a nutshell!
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Thank You For the Invitation
Somewhere in New Mexico, USA - Photo: J. Sorooshian
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Back Up
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Uncertainty of Estimates
Error Analysis
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Spatial-Temporal Property of Reference Error
25N
30N
35N
45N
40N
125W 120W 115W 110W 105W 100W
Refe
ren
ce E
rro
r: m
m/d
ay
0.25ox0.25o, Daily
1ox1o, Daily
1ox1o, Monthly
0.25ox0.25o, Monthly
Refe
ren
ce E
rro
r: m
m/d
ay
Spatial Resolution
(1/A)c2
Refe
ren
ce E
rro
r: m
m/d
ay
Temporal Resolution
(1/T)c1
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
R̂
R
RR ˆ
R̂
Resid
ual (m
m/d
ay)
Reference Error: T = 24-hour, A = 0.25ox0.25o E
sti
mate
s (
mm
/day)
Observations (mm/day)
R̂
dRa~ˆ
Refe
ren
ce
Err
or:
m
m/d
ay
Resid
ual (m
m/d
ay)
Estimates (mm/day)
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Scaling Property of PERSIANN-CCS Reference Error
+ + + +
1
11
ˆ11.ˆ
1
dcb
RTA
a
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Radar-Gauge Comparison (Walnut Gulch, AZ)
Radar data:
Storm depth (mm)
70% overestimation
by the radar!
Rain gauge data:
Z=300R1.4, 2.4o elevation, HailThresh=56 dbz
Precipitation event:
Aug. 11, 2000
Morin et al ADWR 2005
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
140˚ 150˚ 160˚ 170˚ 180˚ -170˚ -160˚ -150˚
5˚
10
˚
1
5˚
20
˚
2
5˚
30
˚
3
5˚
40
˚
0 5 10 15
Hourly Rainfall (mm/hour)
Magenta line: Tracks of the location of the peak rainfall rate pixel
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Green line: the 6-hourly track of rainfall volume centroid
Magenta line: the 6-houly track of the typhoon provided by IBTrACS.
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Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
+
-
- +
+
Interpolation of 3-hour Precipitation
T T+3hr T+6hr t-hr t+3hr