apcc mme seasonal prediction system - gewex · 2015. 7. 19. · apcc mme seasonal prediction system...
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APCC MME Seasonal Prediction System
Beckman Institute, Caltech, Pasadena CA, USA
December 11-13, 2014
Jinyoung Rhee
with colleagues in the
Climate Research Department
APEC Climate Center
December 12, 2014
International Global Drought Information System Workshop: Next Steps
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Outline
• APCC MME Seasonal Prediction System
• MME data for application studies
• A regional drought pilot study
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History
2006 2014 2008 2010 2012
3M Lead Seasonal-rolling DMME Forecasts 3M Lead Monthly-rolling
DMME & PMME Forecasts
6M Lead Monthly-rolling DMME &PMME
Forecasts
Hindcast Verification of 3M Lead DMME Forecasts
Hindcast Verification of 3M Lead PMME Forecasts
Hindcast Verification of
6M Lead DMME & PMME Forecasts
Real-Time Verification of 3M Lead DMME & PMME Forecasts
(but, not operational)
PMME Forecasts
2004 JJA
2007 OND
2013 Sep.
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Sixteen organizations from ten countries
Data Providers
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DMME: SCM Forecast (2008JFM-2013DJF)
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PMME: ROC Score (2008JFM-2013DJF)
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APCC PMME vs. CPC Manual Outlook (2008JFM-2012DJF)
CPC data: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/verification/summary/index.php?page=chart
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http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/verification/
APCC PMME Prcp vs. IRI MME with AGCMs (2008JFM-2013DJF)
IRI
APCC
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APCC PMME Temp vs. IRI MME with AGCMs (2008JFM-2013DJF)
http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/verification/
IRI
APCC
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Sohn et al. (2013) Six month-lead downscaling prediction of winter to spring drought in South Korea based on a multimodel ensemble, GRL 40: 579-583.
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Six month-lead (raw) MME prediction
• MME shows no skill in either
SPI6 or SPEI6 prediction in any
South Korea locations
• Predicting local hydrological
extreme is challenging, even
with the use of state-of-the-art
MME seasonal prediction
systems
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Statistical downscaling: regression-based coupled pattern projection with optimal predictor selection
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<Figure> Scatter plots of TCCs between the observed and predicted precipitation (x axis) and temperature (y axis), for the target month of (a) December, (b) January, (c) February, (d) March, (e) April, and (f) May. The “distance” between the downscaled and raw MME results is given at the upper right of each panel.
DMME / each station
DMME / averaged for all stations
Raw MME / each station
Raw MME / averaged for all stations
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<Figure above> Time series of the observed and predicted 6 month SPEIs, averaged over 60 station locations in South Korea.
<Figure left> Scatter plots of TCCs (x axis) and linear error in probability scores (y axis) between the observed and predicted 6 month SPEI.
SP
EI
DMME / each station
Raw MME / each station
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Thank You
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Target Regions for Prediction and Verification
GL: Global, NE: Northern Extratropics, SE: Southern Extratropics, TR: Tropics, EAs: East Asia, SAs: South Asia, NAm: North America, SAm: South America, AU: Australia, AU_SP: Australia+S.Pacific, NEu: Northern Eurasia, ME: Middle East
APCC’s domain of interest
WMO recommendation