Appalachian Impacts of Global Warming: Appalachian Impacts of Global Warming:

Reasons For Reasons For HopeHope

• Global disruptions of Earth's climate and biosphere are Global disruptions of Earth's climate and biosphere are leading to loss of biodiversity and ecosystem collapses, leading to loss of biodiversity and ecosystem collapses, depletion of fish and forests, loss of fresh water, ocean depletion of fish and forests, loss of fresh water, ocean acidification and species extinctions. What can be done to acidification and species extinctions. What can be done to address these challenges? Can individuals actually make a address these challenges? Can individuals actually make a difference? Is there a legitimate reason for hope? difference? Is there a legitimate reason for hope?

Robert CahalanChief of NASA-Goddard Climate & Radiation Laboratory

Co-founder of Chesapeake Education, Arts, and Research Society (CHEARS.org)

Heritage .. Heritage .. ScienceScience

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“Global warming is

the first environmental forecast based on physical reasoning—the greenhouse effect and its intensification as IR atmospheric opacity increases—rather than on extrapolating observed patterns of past behavior.

Anthropogenic warming was not unambiguously detected until nearly the end of the 20th century, well after most experts knew it was coming.

Interestingly, forecast meteorologists, despite their familiarity with weather and the atmosphere, are at least as skeptical of global warming as the general public; so, to some extent, are geologists.”

– Steven Sherwood, Physics Today, October 2011

Models ensure consistency of observations with basic physical laws,And forecast future scenarios that depend on assumed human choices.

Observations considered together form a convincing scenario of human-induced warming

adapted from Lubchenco (2011)

Earthobservatory.nasa.govEarthobservatory.nasa.gov

847 stories in 2011847 stories in 2011~3.2/business day~3.2/business day

1,139 images1,139 images

54 blog entries54 blog entries

10 in-depth features10 in-depth features

The Climate is ChangingThe Climate is Changing

• Temperatures are risingTemperatures are rising• Ice is meltingIce is melting• Sea levels are risingSea levels are rising• The ocean is acidifyingThe ocean is acidifying

Temperature rise, indicated by color (red=higher rate of increase). Earth’s surface temperature has

risen ~1.3˚ F since 1850. Image courtesy of the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere & Ocean, U. of Washington.

Temperatures are risingTemperatures are risingEarth’s surface temperature has risen 0.6°C~1.1˚ F since 1950. The three major surface temperature data sets (NCDC, GISS, and HadCRU) all show global temperatures have warmed by 0.16 – 0.17°C (0.28 – 0.30°F) per decade since satellite measurements began in 1979.

Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1950 – 2011, classified by phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The year 2011 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present. ENSO is a natural episodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (El Niño/La Niña) and the air pressure of the overlying atmosphere (Southern Oscillation) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Over a period of months to a few years, ENSO fluctuates between warmer-than-average ocean surface waters (El Niño) and cooler-than-average ocean surface waters (La Niña) in that region. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Temperatures are risingTemperatures are risingEarth’s surface temperature has risen 0.6°C~1.1˚ F since 1950. The three major surface temperature data sets (NCDC, GISS, and HadCRU) all show global temperatures have warmed by 0.16 – 0.17°C (0.28 – 0.30°F) per decade since satellite measurements began in 1979.

Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1950 – 2011, classified by phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The year 2011 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present. ENSO is a natural episodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (El Niño/La Niña) and the air pressure of the overlying atmosphere (Southern Oscillation) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Over a period of months to a few years, ENSO fluctuates between warmer-than-average ocean surface waters (El Niño) and cooler-than-average ocean surface waters (La Niña) in that region. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

1957: IGY, SolarMax1967: Budyko GW

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Temperatures are risingTemperatures are rising

1957: IGY, SolarMax1967: Budyko GW

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QuizQuiz::Approximately how many of the top 10 hottest years on record have occurred in the past 10 years? ? (a)(a) 00(b)(b) 11(c)(c) 55(d)(d) 1010

Temperatures are risingTemperatures are rising

1957: IGY, SolarMax1967: Budyko GW

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QuizQuiz::Approximately how many of the top 10 hottest years on record have occurred in the past 10 years? ? (a)(a) 00(b)(b) 11(c)(c) 55(d)(d) 10 10 (9)(9)

The ten hottest years on record are, in order 2010 and 2005 (tie), 1998, 2003, 2002, 2009, 2006, 2007, 2004, and 2001.

Temperatures are risingTemperatures are risingStatewide ranks for the average March to August 2011 precipitation for the U.S.

States from Ohio to Vermont set new records for the highest in 117 years, while Texas and New Mexico set new records for the lowest.

On the national scale in the U.S., entrenched political agendas are in denial about our responsibility for global climate change. However, in the northern New England states, communities are adapting to ongoing regional climate change, because the change in the seasons, as well as the increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, are readily apparent to state government and to citizens with connections and roots in the outdoors.

-- Alan K. Betts

& Precipitation& Precipitation

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Temperatures are risingTemperatures are rising& Sea Level& Sea Level

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& Snow is falling& Snow is falling

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How has EarthHow has Earth’’s sea ice responded?s sea ice responded?

Rapid warming in the Arctic particularly has led to the opening up of sea routes in the area. Both the Northern Sea Route (above Russia and Scandinavia) and the Northwest Passage (above Alaska and Canada) have seen substantial increases in shipping over the past few years. The Northern Sea route in particular is being targeted as a route for tanker and bulk traffic. Shipping through the Northern Sea Route increased by three times between 2010 and 2011.

Due to procedural objections by mostly non-polar states and the industry lobby, the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the United Nations body tasked with developing shipping regulations, shelved the development of the environmental section of the Polar Code until 2013, increasing the risk of harm to both the Arctic and Antarctic.

–World Wildlife Foundation

QuizQuiz: : Of the Of the total surface total surface area of Earth,area of Earth,the 48 contiguous the 48 contiguous states of the USA states of the USA has an area that is has an area that is closest to closest to what percentage? what percentage? (a)(a) 1%1%(b)(b) 5%5%(c)(c) 10%10%(d)(d) 20%20%

QuizQuiz: : Of the Of the total surface total surface area of Earth,area of Earth,the 48 continuous the 48 continuous states of the USA states of the USA has an area that is has an area that is closest to closest to what percentage? what percentage? (a)(a) 1% 1% (1.6%)(1.6%) (b)(b) 5%5%(c)(c) 10%10%(d)(d) 20%20%

Go to URL:Go to URL: wolframalpha.comwolframalpha.com

Enter Enter ““area of usa/world”area of usa/world”““area of (contiguous usa)/world”area of (contiguous usa)/world”

Is global warming likely to have been induced by our Sun?Is global warming likely to have been induced by our Sun?

Solar Energy Input to Earth has an 11-year cycle, but no detectable trend :

IPCC 2007

All regions All regions warmedwarmed at at & near the surface.& near the surface.

Yet the Yet the stratospherestratosphere cooledcooled the the mostmost at at highest altitudehighest altitude::

Is global warming likely to have been induced by our Sun?Is global warming likely to have been induced by our Sun?

This is not consistent with solar warming, but is predicted by greenhouse warming.

Heritage .. Heritage .. DenialDenial

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News headline –> “Global Warming - Sorry Al, it's the Sun!”

“According to Robert Cahalan, climatologist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center ‘For the last 20 to 30 years, we believe greenhouse gases have been the dominant influence on recent climate change.’ This may not come as such a big surprise to those who weren't so ready to swallow the Al Gore theory.” … blah, blah, blah! …

– Ian Brockwell, News Blaze, June 07, 2009

The Role of Human BeingsThe Role of Human Beings

Causes of Climate Causes of Climate ChangeChange

• It is very likely that It is very likely that mostmost of the of the climate change in the current era climate change in the current era is the result of human activities. is the result of human activities. – Human activities have increased Human activities have increased

concentrations of greenhouse concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. gases in the atmosphere.

– These gases trap heat and cause These gases trap heat and cause the Earth to warm.the Earth to warm.

Figure adapted from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group 1 Contribution to the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Figure SPM.5. Cambridge University Press.

During pre-industrial Holocene, CO2 remained within 10% of 280 ppm.Since 1850, CO2 rapidly increased more than 30%, & forecast to double by 2100.Doubling might be avoided if humans choose not to pursue “business as usual.”

Carbon isotopes show that new atmospheric CO2 is from fossil fuels.Carbon from fossil fuels returned to the atmosphere in combustion is depleted in both 13C and 14C.

Atmospheric CO2 doesn’t “rain out” like aerosols.Once emitted, 50% remains in atmosphere for centuries, the other 50% is absorbed by oceans, and trees.

Past 10,000 years: global temperature relative to peak pre-industrial Holocene.Prior to 1850, Holocene was cooler than the Eemian interglacial.Post-industrial Holocene – the Anthropocene – is warmer than the Eemian.During the Eemian, Greenland melted, global sea level rose more than 20 feet.An additional 1°C warming could push us over a “tipping point.”

We are here.

adapted from Hansen & Sato (2011)

Deep Time: Deep Time: Human Forced Changes areHuman Forced Changes are RapidRapid

… Ice Ages …

Small human population2000 generations ago

Rising Ocean CO2 Rising Ocean CO2 Falling pH Falling pH

• Oceans acidifyOceans acidify • Corals and Shells DissolveCorals and Shells Dissolve

"Bottom line: The ocean - our life support system -- is in trouble; therefore so are we. Tipping points are imminent, but there is time to reverse the decline and secure an enduring place for humankind within the systems that sustain us -- our economies, health, security and most importantly, life itself. Knowing is the key."

Sylvia Earle at The Economist's World Oceans Summit

Survival of SpeciesSurvival of Species

“The Bog Turtle” Formerly common throughout the Chesapeake Watershed.

Now one of the 25 most endangered turtles in the world.

This hand-sized turtle inspired our CHEARS logo.

“Maryland darter” Only endemic vertebrate in Maryland.

Last seen in Deer Creek in 1988.The IUCN has declared this fish species extinct.The United States Fish and Wildlife Service has not,

and keeps it on the Endangered Species List.

Survival of SpeciesSurvival of Species

“Business As Usual” scenario for 2100: Global warming ~ 3°C, Likely extinctions ~ 50%“Alternative” scenario for 2100: Global warming ~ 1°C, Likely extinctions ~ 10%

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, www.millenniumassessment.org

Goddard Climate & Radiation LaboratoryGoddard Climate & Radiation Laboratory

branch CS roles, issues & concerns Strengths   Challenges Opportunities Threats

Ash Wednesday Storm, March 6-8, 1962--------------------  50 years ago, Ocean City was washing away--------------------  – Baltimore Sun, March 5, 2012  Visit baltimoresun.com at http://www.baltimoresun.com

What can be done to address these challenges? Can individuals actually make a difference? Is there a legitimate reason for hope?

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What are our chances?What are our chances?My personal reason for hope:My personal reason for hope:

• Known Unknown – Known Unknown – 96% of all mass/energy96% of all mass/energy• Sensitivity to initial conditions – Sensitivity to initial conditions – The ubiquity of chaosThe ubiquity of chaos• Resiliance – Resiliance – NatureNature’’s remarkable ability to heal and adapts remarkable ability to heal and adapt• Peak oil and gas – Peak oil and gas – The Power of Community, urban permacultureThe Power of Community, urban permaculture• The Japanese Cedar The Japanese Cedar –– For 7000 years it clung to the soil, protected birds For 7000 years it clung to the soil, protected birds• Our Elders – Our Elders – Pete Seeger (Calipso), Jane Goodall (Roots and Shoots)Pete Seeger (Calipso), Jane Goodall (Roots and Shoots)• Our ChildrenOur Children – – Adapting to and changing the world Adapting to and changing the world they have inheritedthey have inherited• Our Tree of Life – Our Tree of Life – Relearning our interconnectednessRelearning our interconnectedness• Non-Coal Alternatives – Non-Coal Alternatives – Solar, Wind, Geothermal, Solar, Wind, Geothermal, monitor their impactsmonitor their impacts

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What are our chances?What are our chances?The Power of Community:The Power of Community:

How Cuba Survived Peak OilHow Cuba Survived Peak Oil

http://www.powerofcommunity.org/

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What can What can wewe do? do?My personal “to do” list:My personal “to do” list:

• Think Globally, Act Locally – Think Globally, Act Locally – http://pumas.nasa.gov on on ““learning to think globallylearning to think globally””• Change our homeChange our home – Manage to – Manage to work with nature in your own lifework with nature in your own life• Carbon FootprintCarbon Footprint - Calculate and - Calculate and control our energy/carbon –> mindfulnesscontrol our energy/carbon –> mindfulness• Talk to our neighborsTalk to our neighbors – Help our – Help our community work with naturecommunity work with nature• Shop localShop local – Give local businesses – Give local businesses our feedbackour feedback• ““Cradle to CradleCradle to Cradle”” (McDonough and Braungart) – (McDonough and Braungart) –

Redesign businesses& institutions, Redesign businesses& institutions, work work withwith nature nature• Consume wiselyConsume wisely – Find – Find products that do less harm, or do goodproducts that do less harm, or do good• The Bog TurtleThe Bog Turtle – – Our Adopted Species Our Adopted Species - help it pull back from extinction- help it pull back from extinction• Educate Our ChildrenEducate Our Children – To – To adapt to and change the world adapt to and change the world they inheritthey inherit• Support Non-Coal Alternatives – Support Non-Coal Alternatives – Solar, Wind, Geothermal, Solar, Wind, Geothermal, monitor their impactsmonitor their impacts

“Little things lead to bigger things – that’s what seeds are all about.… Who knows where some good little thing you’ve done may bring results years later that you never dreamed of.”

– Pete Seeger (“Democracy Now” on 5/4/2009)

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What can What can wewe do? do?Maggie’s List:Maggie’s List:

• 1. Have vegan diet1. Have vegan diet• 2. Use public transportation--live close to work2. Use public transportation--live close to work• 3. Turn off air conditioning--open windows3. Turn off air conditioning--open windows• 4. Invite others to share house with you---use less space and less energy4. Invite others to share house with you---use less space and less energy• 5. Spend time outside every day and walk everyday to stay healthy5. Spend time outside every day and walk everyday to stay healthy• 6. Be kind to others and share what we have6. Be kind to others and share what we have• 7. Grow some of our own food--eat local and with the seasons7. Grow some of our own food--eat local and with the seasons• 8. Develop new ways of work –build new economy not dependent on exploiting8. Develop new ways of work –build new economy not dependent on exploiting

--be creative in encouraging green work--be creative in encouraging green work• 9. Adopt a species and work for its health9. Adopt a species and work for its health• 10. Build the beloved community that includes all creatures 10. Build the beloved community that includes all creatures

What is your “top 10” list of changes?

A possible futureA possible future• Montreal Protocol has already improved our Ozone LayerMontreal Protocol has already improved our Ozone Layer• Now need Now need new international cooperationnew international cooperation for: for:

– Renewable energy development.Renewable energy development.– Energy conservation/efficiency.Energy conservation/efficiency.– Energy system transitions, land use change patterns, sea-level rise mitigation.Energy system transitions, land use change patterns, sea-level rise mitigation.– Regional responses tuned to regional changes.Regional responses tuned to regional changes.– Water quality, conservation, and distributionWater quality, conservation, and distribution– ……

• A Sustainable AlternativeA Sustainable Alternative: Human society taking coordinated action to : Human society taking coordinated action to adapt to and mitigate expected climate changes.adapt to and mitigate expected climate changes.

““Above all, reducing the risk of climate change requires Above all, reducing the risk of climate change requires collective actioncollective action. . It requires It requires cooperation between countriescooperation between countries, through international , through international frameworks that support the achievement of shared goals. It requires a frameworks that support the achievement of shared goals. It requires a partnership between the public and private sectorpartnership between the public and private sector, working with civil , working with civil society and with individuals. It is still possible to avoid the worst impacts society and with individuals. It is still possible to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, but it requires strong and urgent collective action. of climate change, but it requires strong and urgent collective action. Delay would be costly and dangerousDelay would be costly and dangerous.” .” [emphases added][emphases added]

- The Stern review (2007)- The Stern review (2007)

Emergent SpeciesEmergent SpeciesHiding in Plain Sight, a New Frog Species With a 'Weird' Croak Is Identified in New York City

– ScienceDaily (Mar. 14, 2012)Catherine E. Newman, Jeremy A. Feinberg, Leslie J. Rissler, Joanna Burger, H. Bradley Shaffer. A new species of leopard frog (Anura: Ranidae) from the urban northeastern US. Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution, 2012; 63 (2): 445 DOI: 10.1016/j.ympev.2012.01.021

Let us ask the right questions, and begin to listen to Nature in a new

way.

“How do we love all the children of all species for all time? …Consider a tree. Design something that makes oxygen, sequesters carbon, fixes nitrogen, distills water, accrues solar energy as fuel, builds complex sugars as food, creates microclimates, changes colors with the seasons, and self replicates.”

– William McDonoughAuthor of “Cradle to Cradle” (with M. Baumgardt)Talk at www.ted.com in Feb 2005.

“..When I was less than a year old, before I could talk, …, I was in a pram outside the grocery store. … A dragonfly began swooping around me, and I screamed – so a well-intentioned passerby hit the dragonfly to the ground with his newspaper, and crushed it with his foot. I continued to scream all the way home. … But being afraid of something did not mean I wanted it killed. If I close my eyes I can see, with almost unbearable clarity, the glorious shimmering and still quivering wings, the blue ‘tail’ gleaming in the sunlight, the head crushed on the sidewalk…Perhaps the dragonfly was part of some plan, to bring a message to a little child, all those years ago. If so, all I can say is: ‘Message received and understood.’ ”

– Jane GoodallReason For Hope – A Spiritual Journey

Alarming ‘dead zone’ grows in the ChesapeakeBy Darryl Fears, July 24, 2011

…expanding area of oxygen-starved water is on track to become the bay’s largest ever. This year’s Chesapeake Bay dead zone covers a third of the bay, stretching from the Baltimore Harbor to the bay’s mid-channel region in the Potomac River, about 83 miles, when it was last measured in late June. It has since expanded beyond the Potomac into Virginia, officials said.

THE DISMAL DECLINE OF THE BAY HAS LED THESE PROUD SMITH ISLAND WATERMEN AND WOMEN TO GIVE UP WORK ON THE BAY, LEAVE THEIR

ISLAND HOMES, AND GO TO WORK AT THE STATE PISON IN PRINCESS ANNE, MD ENDING GENERATIONS OF THEIR FAMILIES MAKING A LIVING FROM THE BAY’S ONCE BOUNTEOUS RESORUCRCES, ESPECIALLY OYSTERS AND CRABS.

THE POLLUTION OF THE BAY HAS DESTROYED THEIR ANCIENT LIVELIHOODS. Photo: National Geographic Magazine, June 2005, Why Can’t We Save the Bay? By Tom Horton

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What are our chances?What are our chances?How To Build Community:How To Build Community:

The Syracuse Cultural WorkersThe Syracuse Cultural Workers

http://syracuseculturalworkers.com

Turn off your TV*Leave your houseKnow your neighborsLook up when you are walkingGreet people*Sit on your stoopPlant FlowersUse your library*Play togetherBuy from local merchantsShare what you haveHelp a lost dogTake children to the parkGarden TogetherSupport Neighborhood SchoolsFix it even if you didn't break itHave Pot Lucks*Honor EldersPick Up Litter* Read Stories AloudDance in the StreetTalk to the Mail CarrierListen to the Birds* Put up a SwingHelp Carry Something HeavyBarter For Your Goods

Start A Tradition*Ask A QuestionHire Young People for Odd JobsOrganize a Block PartyBake Extra and ShareAsk For Help When You Need ItOpen Your Shades*Sing TogetherShare Your SkillsTake Back the NightTurn Up The MusicTurn Down The MusicListen Before You react To AngerMediate A ConflictSeek To UnderstandLearn From New AndUncomfortable AnglesKnow That No One is SilentThough Many Are Not HeardWork To Change This

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What are our chances?What are our chances?Turning around:Turning around:

• One billion persons turning out a lightbulb …One billion persons turning out a lightbulb …– ……for 1 hour a day for a year, can power a medium sized city in the USA for a year.for 1 hour a day for a year, can power a medium sized city in the USA for a year.

– See See http://pumas.nasa.gov and search for “think globally.” and search for “think globally.”

– Human population increased by 1 billion in the past 12 years !!!Human population increased by 1 billion in the past 12 years !!!

• A‘Moore’s Law’ is rapidly making solar cheaper than fossil fuelsA‘Moore’s Law’ is rapidly making solar cheaper than fossil fuels– Fossil fuels lose after 2020Fossil fuels lose after 2020

• Is there enough solar energy to fill the increasing needs?Is there enough solar energy to fill the increasing needs?– Humans use 15 TW, Humans use 15 TW,

– Land and Oceans take in 90,000 TW solar, or 2000 X human usage.Land and Oceans take in 90,000 TW solar, or 2000 X human usage.

– Coal & Oil doesn’t need to be replaced by a Coal & Oil doesn’t need to be replaced by a singlesingle renewable, just renewable, just newnew coal by > 10 renewables. coal by > 10 renewables.

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What are our chances?What are our chances?Turning around:Turning around:

“We are made of water, flowing water, Sun and salt, winds that blow. Though my bones were “We are made of water, flowing water, Sun and salt, winds that blow. Though my bones were formed in the mountain, it’s through my blood this river flows.” – Tom Wisner, song lyricsformed in the mountain, it’s through my blood this river flows.” – Tom Wisner, song lyrics

Adapt, Mitigate, Observe – Adapt, Mitigate, Observe – Persist!Persist!Great Basin National Park, Nevada, USAProposed Site for “Clock of the Long Now”

Holocene Lasted 10,000 Years. Will the Anthropocene?Holocene Lasted 10,000 Years. Will the Anthropocene?

Do We Have the Persistance of Our Ancestors?Do We Have the Persistance of Our Ancestors?Passage Grave, Newgrange, Ireland, c5000 Years Before Present

Continues to keep accurate time to date.

Bristlecone Pine

Oh my children, where air we going on this mighty river of earth,a-borning, begetting, and a-dying, the living and the dead ridingthe waters? Where air it sweeping us? – James Still, “River of Earth”

HeritageHeritage

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I shall not leave these prisoning hillsThough they topple their barren heads to level earthAnd the forests slide uprooted out of the sky.

Though the waters of Troublesome, of Trace Fork,Of Sand Lick rise in a single body to glean the valleys,To drown lush pennyroyal, to unravel rail fences;Though the sun-ball breaks the ridges into dustAnd burns its strength into the blistered rock

I cannot leave. I cannot go away.

Being of these hills, being one with the foxStealing into the shadows, one with the new-born foal,The lumbering ox drawing green beech logs to mill,One with the destined feet of man climbing and descending,

And one with death rising to bloom again, I cannot go.

Being of these hills I cannot pass beyond.

– James Still (1906-2001), Knott County, Kentucky

Thank you!Thank you!

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