appendix 136a.5 wildlife refined assessment · 136a.5.4.7 summary.....136a.5-52. esrd and ceaa...

Frontier Oil Sands Mine ProjectIntegrated ApplicationSupplemental Information Request, Round 2

ESRD and CEAA ResponsesAppendix 136a.5: Wildlife Refined Assessment

October 2013

Appendix 136a.5 Wildlife Refined Assessment


Frontier Oil Sands Mine ProjectIntegrated Application

Supplemental Information Request, Round 2

October 2013



October 2013 ESRD/CEAA Page 136a.5-i

Table of Contents

APPENDIX 136A.5 WILDLIFE REFINED ASSESSMENT

136a.5.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................136a.5-1

136a.5.2 Habitat Availability.....................................................................................................136a.5-2

136a.5.2.1 Results ....................................................................................................136a.5-2

136a.5.2.2 Effects Classification..............................................................................136a.5-2

136a.5.2.3 Environmental Consequence ..................................................................136a.5-3

136a.5.2.4 Prediction Confidence ............................................................................136a.5-4

136a.5.2.5 Summary.................................................................................................136a.5-4

136a.5.3 Landscape Connectivity............................................................................................136a.5-17

136a.5.3.1 Results ..................................................................................................136a.5-17

136a.5.3.2 Effects Classification............................................................................136a.5-18

136a.5.3.3 Environmental Consequence ................................................................136a.5-18

136a.5.3.4 Summary...............................................................................................136a.5-18

136a.5.4 Mortality Risk............................................................................................................136a.5-36

136a.5.4.1 Results ..................................................................................................136a.5-36

136a.5.4.1.1 Interactions with Vehicles and Equipment.................136a.5-36

136a.5.4.1.2 Interactions with Project Infrastructure ......................136a.5-50

136a.5.4.1.3 Risk from Hunting and Trapping ...............................136a.5-50

136a.5.4.2 Effects Classification............................................................................136a.5-52

136a.5.4.3 Environmental Consequence ................................................................136a.5-52

136a.5.4.4 Prediction Confidence ..........................................................................136a.5-52

136a.5.4.5 Responses to Aboriginal Community Concerns...................................136a.5-52

136a.5.4.6 Management and Monitoring ...............................................................136a.5-52

136a.5.4.7 Summary...............................................................................................136a.5-52




ESRD/CEAA Page 136a.5-ii October 2013

List of Tables

Table 136a.5-1 Changes in Habitat Availability in the LSA (Refined Table 4-6)...................... 136a.5-5

Table 136a.5-2 Change in Habitat Availability in the RSA (Refined Table 4-7) ....................... 136a.5-8

Table 136a.5-3 Magnitude of Change in Habitat Availability (RSA) – Base Case(Refined Table 4-8b)........................................................................................ 136a.5-12

Table 136a.5-4 Magnitude of Change in Habitat Availability (RSA) – ApplicationCase (Refined Table 4-8c) ............................................................................... 136a.5-13

Table 136a.5-5 Magnitude of Change in Habitat Availability (RSA) – PDC(Refined Table 4-8c) ........................................................................................ 136a.5-14

Table 136a.5-6 Effects Classification for Habitat Availability (Refined Table 4-9) ................ 136a.5-15

Table 136a.5-7 Environmental Consequence of Changes in Habitat Availability in theRSA (Refined Table 4-10) ............................................................................... 136a.5-16

Table 136a.5-8 Change in Landscape Connectivity in the RSA (Refined Table 4-11) ............ 136a.5-34

Table 136a.5-9 Magnitude of Change in Landscape Connectivity in the RSA (RefinedTable 4-12)....................................................................................................... 136a.5-35

Table 136a.5-10 Effects Classification for Landscape Connectivity (Refined Table 4-13) .................................................................................................................... 136a.5-35

Table 136a.5-11 Environmental Consequence of Changes in Landscape Connectivityin the RSA (Refined Table 4-14) ..................................................................... 136a.5-36

Table 136a.5-12 Relative Direct Mortality Risk for Western Toad in the LSA (RefinedTable 4-16a) ..................................................................................................... 136a.5-37

Table 136a.5-13 Relative Direct Mortality Risk for Western Toad in the RSA (RefinedTable 4-16b)..................................................................................................... 136a.5-37

Table 136a.5-14 Changes in Core Security Area in the RSA (Refined Table 4-17)................... 136a.5-51

List of Figures

Figure 136a.5-1 Moose Habitat Connectivity – Base Case (Refinement).................................. 136a.5-19

Figure 136a.5-2 Moose Habitat Connectivity – Application Case (Refinement) ...................... 136a.5-20

Figure 136a.5-3 Moose Habitat Connectivity – PDC (Refinement) .......................................... 136a.5-21

Figure 136a.5-4 Black Bear Habitat Connectivity – Base Case (Refinement)........................... 136a.5-22

Figure 136a.5-5 Black Bear Habitat Connectivity – Application Case (Refinement) ............... 136a.5-23

Figure 136a.5-6 Black Bear Habitat Connectivity – PDC (Refinement) ................................... 136a.5-24

Figure 136a.5-7 Fisher Habitat Connectivity – Base Case (Refinement) .................................. 136a.5-25

Figure 136a.5-8 Fisher Habitat Connectivity – Application Case (Refinement) ....................... 136a.5-26

Figure 136a.5-9 Fisher Habitat Connectivity – PDC (Refinement) ........................................... 136a.5-27



October 2013 ESRD/CEAA Page 136a.5-iii

Figure 136a.5-10 Wolverine Habitat Connectivity – Base Case (Refinement)............................ 136a.5-28

Figure 136a.5-11 Wolverine Habitat Connectivity – Application Case (Refinement)................. 136a.5-29

Figure 136a.5-12 Wolverine Habitat Connectivity – PDC (Refinement) .................................... 136a.5-30

Figure 136a.5-13 Canada Lynx Habitat Connectivity – Base Case (Refinement) ....................... 136a.5-31

Figure 136a.5-14 Canada Lynx Habitat Connectivity – Application Case (Refinement) ............ 136a.5-32

Figure 136a.5-15 Canada Lynx Habitat Connectivity – PDC (Refinement)................................ 136a.5-33

Figure 136a.5-16 Moose Core Security – Base Case (Refinement)............................................. 136a.5-38

Figure 136a.5-17 Moose Core Security – Application Case (Refinement).................................. 136a.5-39

Figure 136a.5-18 Moose Core Security – PDC (Refinement)...................................................... 136a.5-40

Figure 136a.5-19 Black Bear Core Security – Base Case (Refinement)...................................... 136a.5-41

Figure 136a.5-20 Black Bear Core Security – Application Case (Refinement)........................... 136a.5-42

Figure 136a.5-21 Black Bear Core Security – PDC (Refinement)............................................... 136a.5-43

Figure 136a.5-22 Wolverine Core Security – Base Case (Refinement)....................................... 136a.5-44

Figure 136a.5-23 Wolverine Core Security – Application Case (Refinement)............................ 136a.5-45

Figure 136a.5-24 Wolverine Core Security – PDC (Refinement)................................................ 136a.5-46

Figure 136a.5-25 Canada Lynx Core Security – Base Case (Refinement) .................................. 136a.5-47

Figure 136a.5-26 Canada Lynx Core Security – Application Case (Refinement) ....................... 136a.5-48

Figure 136a.5-27 Canada Lynx Core Security – PDC (Refinement) ........................................... 136a.5-49




ESRD/CEAA Page 136a.5-iv October 2013



October 2013 ESRD/CEAA Page 136a.5-1

136a.5.1 Introduction

This appendix provides a refined assessment to Volume 6, Section 4 (wildlife

assessment) of the Frontier Oil Sands Mine Project Integrated Application. The refined

assessment integrates revisions to the Project disturbance area (PDA), specifically

removal of the:

south development area (SDA)

main development area (MDA)-SDA corridor

500-m buffer around the above areas

The refinement also includes removal of progressive reclamation for regional

developments considered in the Base Case and Application Case (i.e., all developments

and associated linear features are considered at maximum build-out).

A revised wildlife assessment is provided in ESRD/CEAA Round 2 Appendix 136a.4 and

is used to compare against the refined assessment provided here.

The refined assessment examines:

habitat availability

connectivity

direct and indirect wildlife mortality

Except for the information provided above, the approach to the refined assessment

follows that of the Integrated Application or responses to Round 1 supplemental

information requests (SIRs) for specific key indicators. These include:

woodland caribou for habitat availability (ESRD/CEAA Round 1 SIR 206a)

Canadian toad for habitat availability (ESRD/CEAA Round 1 SIR 210b)

northern and little brown myotis for habitat availability (ESRD/CEAA Round 1

SIR 210b)

wolverine for connectivity and mortality risk (ESRD/CEAA Round 1 SIR 210b)

modification of the Ronald Lake bison herd study area for habitat availability

(ESRD/CEAA Round 1 SIR 219c)

fisher and Canada lynx connectivity (ESRD/CEAA Round 1 SIR 463a)

horned grebe for habitat availability (ESRD/CEAA Round 1 SIR 448a)

For the refined assessment, changes in regional population levels (based on habitat and

mortality risk) were not reassessed. Given the challenges with estimating and comparing

population estimates in the oil sands region (see the response to ESRD/CEAA Round 1

SIRs 231, 466 and 467 and ESRD/CEAA Round 2 SIRs 101 and 196), it is assumed that

with the loss of habitat, removal of progressive reclamation and the increase in linear

access features (increasing access by humans and predators), population levels would




ESRD/CEAA Page 136a.5-2 October 2013

decrease and mortality risk would increase. Estimated declines in species abundances in

the vegetation and wildlife RSA are considered to be conservatively high in part because

habitat loss does not necessarily equate to animal losses from the population, as animals

displaced from disturbances can potentially relocate to adjacent areas if additional

suitable habitat is available.

136a.5.2 Habitat Availability

136a.5.2.1 Results

The detailed methods used for the refined assessment for habitat availability follow those

used in the Integrated Application and the responses to ESRD/CEAA Round 1 SIRs

identified in Section 136a.5.1.

Data for the revised terrestrial LSA is provided in Table 136a.5-1. Data for the vegetation

and wildlife RSA is provided in Table 136a.5-2.

To streamline the results section, individual discussions of each key indicator species are

not provided as part of this refined assessment. Species-specific discussions are included

in the Integrated Application (see Volume 6, Section 4.5.4 to 4.5.18, Pages 4-42 to 4-233)

and in the response to individual SIRs (identified in ESRD/CEAA Round 2 Appendix

136a.4, Table 4-3).

As would be expected, there is a decline in moderate- and high-habitat availability for all

key indicator species for the refined assessment (with progressive reclamation not

included) when compared to the revised assessment (see ESRD/CEAA Round 2

Appendix 136a.4). This is true for all assessment cases.

136a.5.2.2 Effects Classification

Effects classifications for the refined habitat availability assessment are provided by case

(see Tables 136a.5-6). Differences between refined habitat availability and the revised

assessment include:

Moose: change from moderate to high magnitude in all cases when moderate- and

high-habitat availability are considered together.

Fisher: change from low to moderate magnitude at Base Case and moderate to high

at Planned Development Case (PDC) when only high-habitat availability is

considered.

Canada lynx: change from moderate to high magnitude in Base Case and

Application Case when moderate- and high-habitat availability are considered

together.

Beaver: change from low magnitude to moderate magnitude in all cases when

moderate- and high-habitat availability are considered together and at PDC when

only high-habitat availability is considered.




Northern goshawk: change from moderate to high magnitude at Base Case and at

Application Case when moderate- and high-habitat availability are considered

together; and from moderate to high magnitude at Base Case when only high-habitat

availability is considered.

Short-eared owl: change from moderate to high magnitude at Base Case when

moderate- and high-habitat availability are considered together

Canada warbler: change from low to high magnitude at Base Case, and moderate to

high magnitude at Application Case and PDC when moderate- and high-habitat

availability are considered together.

Waterfowl: change from moderate to high magnitude for all cases.

Canadian toad: change from low to high magnitude for all cases.

136a.5.2.3 Environmental Consequence

Environmental consequence for each key indicator species is detailed in Table 136a.5-7.

Changes from the revised assessment are outlined below:

Moose: change from low to moderate environmental consequence in all cases when

moderate- and high-habitat availability are considered together.

Fisher: change from low to moderate environmental consequence at PDC when only

high-habitat availability is considered

Canada lynx: change from low to moderate environmental consequence in Base

Case and Application Case when moderate- and high-habitat availability are

considered together

Northern goshawk: change from low to moderate environmental consequence at

Base Case and at Application Case when moderate- and high-habitat availability are

considered together; and from low to moderate environmental consequence at Base

Case when only high-habitat availability is considered

Short-eared owl: change from moderate to high environmental consequence at Base

Case when moderate- and high-habitat availability are considered together

Canada warbler: change from low to moderate environmental consequence at Base

Case, Application Case and PDC when moderate- and high-habitat availability are

considered together

Waterfowl: change from low to moderate environmental consequence at all cases

Canadian toad: change from low to moderate environmental consequence for all

cases





136a.5.2.4 Prediction Confidence

As in the Integrated Application, a moderate level of confidence is given to the methods

and results used to assess the effects of the Project on habitat availability.

136a.5.2.5 Summary

Relative to the revised assessment, the magnitude of effects remain the same for ten

species. For the other species, the magnitude of effect for changes in habitat availability

increases variably across cases.

Similarly, the environmental consequence ranking for habitat availability remains the

same for ten species, while for the other species, the environmental consequence

increases from the revised assessment to the refined assessment.




Table 136a.5-1 Changes in Habitat Availability in the LSA (Refined Table 4-6)

Key IndicatorSpecies

Habitat SuitabilityRating

Reference Condition

Base CaseChange from Predevelopment to

Base Case

Application CaseChange from Base Case to

Application Case

Predevelopment ExistingProject Maximum

Build-outProject Maximum

Build-out

ha ha ha ha % ha ha %

Ronald Lakebison herd

High 5,808.5 5,808.5 4,278.6 -1,530.0 -26.3 592.4 -3,686.2 -86.2

Moderate 4,780.7 4,780.7 3,255.9 -1,524.8 -31.9 518.3 -2,737.7 -84.1

Low 20,092.1 20,092.1 11,309.8 -8,782.3 -43.7 2,228.3 -9,081.4 -80.3

Very low to Nil 3,496.1 3,496.1 15,333.2 11,837.1 338.6 30,838.4 15,505.2 101.1

Moose High 5,185.6 2,963.6 3,207.0 -1,978.6 -38.2 681.2 -2,525.8 -78.8

Moderate 27,434.6 15,139.8 14,180.8 -13,253.8 -48.3 2,931.1 -11,249.7 -79.3

Low 1,251.0 3,471.6 4,295.6 3,044.5 243.4 1,192.6 -3,103.0 -72.2

Very low to Nil 4,277.8 16,574.0 16,465.7 12,187.9 284.9 33,344.2 16,878.5 102.5

Woodlandcaribou

High 753.2 546.8 376.3 -376.9 -50.0 5.9 -370.4 -98.4

Moderate 826.5 604.6 605.0 -221.4 -26.8 51.1 -554.0 -91.6

Low 4,707.2 2,899.6 2,743.1 -1,964.1 -41.7 320.7 -2,422.5 -88.3

Very low to Nil 31,862.2 34,098.0 34,424.5 2,562.4 8.0 37,771.3 3,346.8 9.7

Black bear High 325.6 248.3 238.9 -86.7 -26.6 25.2 -213.8 -89.5

Moderate 26,125.7 21,847.7 20,634.0 -5,491.7 -21.0 3,903.1 -16,730.9 -81.1

Low 5,664.5 5,429.7 6,173.3 508.8 9.0 1,868.8 -4,304.5 -69.7

Very low to Nil 6,033.2 10,623.3 11,102.8 5,069.6 84.0 32,352.0 21,249.2 191.4

Fisher High 3,481.0 2,614.2 2,552.1 -929.0 -26.7 572.1 -1,980.0 -77.6

Moderate 6,980.3 5,631.3 11,296.0 4,315.7 61.8 2,209.0 -9,087.0 -80.4

Low 18,101.3 13,484.3 7,588.2 -10,513.1 -58.1 1,867.2 -5,720.9 -75.4

Very low to Nil 9,586.4 16,419.1 16,712.8 7,126.4 74.3 33,500.7 16,787.9 100.4

Canada lynx High 5,606.0 4,604.8 6,057.2 451.2 8.0 973.2 -5,084.0 -83.9

Moderate 12,457.4 10,684.3 14,293.5 1,836.1 14.7 2,139.4 -12,154.1 -85.0

Low 16,489.8 14,457.3 8,553.1 -7,936.7 -48.1 1,235.7 -7,317.4 -85.6

Very low to Nil 3,595.7 8,402.6 9,245.1 5,649.4 157.1 33,800.6 24,555.5 265.6

Northern andlittle brownmyotis

High 2,937.5 2,661.5 8,284.4 5,346.9 182.0 619.9 -7,664.5 -92.5

Moderate 15,698.9 12,420.3 8,904.1 -6,794.8 -43.3 944.3 -7,959.9 -89.4

Low 7,477.0 8,005.3 6,521.1 -955.8 -12.8 1,618.0 -4,903.1 -75.2

Very low to Nil 12,035.7 15,061.9 14,439.4 2,403.7 20.0 34,966.9 20,527.5 142.2





Table 136a.5-1 Changes in Habitat Availability in the LSA (Refined Table 4-6) (cont’d)



Reference Condition


Base Case


Application Case



Build-out


Beaver High 2,015.7 1,995.6 1,468.6 -547.1 -27.1 663.1 -805.5 -54.8

Moderate 2,317.0 2,274.7 2,103.7 -213.4 -9.2 674.3 -1,429.4 -67.9

Low 905.1 894.1 1,564.7 659.7 72.9 430.7 -1,134.1 -72.5

Very low to Nil 32,911.2 32,984.6 33,012.0 100.8 0.3 36,380.9 3,368.9 10.2

Northerngoshawk

High 6,070.6 4,333.3 7,734.0 1,663.4 27.4 241.6 -7,492.3 -96.9

Moderate 11,808.6 8,675.1 8,997.2 -2,811.4 -23.8 1,405.9 -7,591.3 -84.4

Low 8,640.2 10,361.1 5,414.8 -3,225.4 -37.3 1,373.3 -4,041.5 -74.6

Very low to Nil 11,629.6 14,779.6 16,003.0 4,373.4 37.6 35,128.1 19,125.2 119.5

Yellow rail High 2,886.9 2,416.1 2,293.2 -593.7 -20.6 243.3 -2,049.9 -89.4

Moderate 0.0 438.5 435.6 435.6 N/A 269.7 -165.9 -38.1

Low 4,734.7 3,749.8 3,386.6 -1,348.1 -28.5 907.5 -2,479.1 -73.2

Very low to Nil 30,527.4 31,544.6 32,033.6 1,506.2 4.9 36,728.5 4,694.9 14.7

Short-eared owl High 2,670.1 2,579.8 2,513.8 -156.3 -5.9 417.0 -2,096.8 -83.4

Moderate 1,480.9 1,245.8 1,104.4 -376.4 -25.4 288.3 -816.1 -73.9

Low 4,286.0 4,191.2 5,055.0 769.0 17.9 1,432.3 -3,622.7 -71.7

Very low to Nil 29,711.9 30,132.2 29,475.7 -236.3 -0.8 36,011.3 6,535.7 22.2

Commonnighthawk

High 382.8 341.6 333.9 -48.9 -12.8 38.8 -295.1 -88.4

Moderate 9,058.2 8,703.0 14,652.0 5,593.8 61.8 1,670.7 -12,981.3 -88.6

Low 6,411.2 6,676.0 7,674.2 1,263.0 19.7 1,918.8 -5,755.4 -75.0

Very low to Nil 22,296.8 22,428.4 15,489.0 -6,807.8 -30.5 34,520.7 19,031.7 122.9

Olive-sidedflycatcher

High 103.3 83.2 315.5 212.2 205.3 71.4 -244.1 -77.4

Moderate 1,615.0 1,364.2 1,974.2 359.2 22.2 361.5 -1,612.6 -81.7

Low 11,640.0 9,579.5 9,676.5 -1,963.6 -16.9 1,507.1 -8,169.4 -84.4

Very low to Nil 24,790.7 27,122.1 26,182.9 1,392.2 5.6 36,209.0 10,026.1 38.3

Canada warbler High 2,937.5 2,594.5 7,923.8 4,986.3 169.7 610.8 -7,312.9 -92.3

Moderate 13,573.9 10,412.6 6,954.0 -6,619.9 -48.8 972.7 -5,981.3 -86.0

Low 5,239.9 7,344.0 7,416.9 2,177.0 41.5 1,977.6 -5,439.4 -73.3

Very low to Nil 16,397.7 17,797.8 15,854.3 -543.4 -3.3 34,587.9 18,733.6 118.2



October 2013 ESRD/CEAA 6a.5-7

Table 136a.5-1 Changes in Habitat Availability in the LSA (Refined Table 4-6) (cont’d)



Reference Condition


Base Case


Application Case



Build-out


Rusty blackbird High 12,043.0 9,904.3 9,218.1 -2,825.0 -23.5 1,490.8 -7,727.3 -83.8

Moderate 3,388.0 4,741.5 4,705.8 1,317.8 38.9 1,661.7 -3,044.1 -64.7

Low 6,442.5 5,644.4 5,695.2 -747.3 -11.6 2,324.7 -3,370.5 -59.2

Very low to Nil 16,275.4 17,858.9 18,529.9 2,254.4 13.9 32,671.8 14,141.9 76.3

Waterfowl High 9,898.1 8,931.6 9,007.1 -891.0 -9.0 2,472.7 -6,534.4 -72.5

Moderate 8,880.8 8,567.7 8,500.7 -380.1 -4.3 2,436.3 -6,064.4 -71.3

Low 52.0 628.8 604.9 552.9 1,062.9 505.4 -99.6 -16.5

Very low to Nil 19,318.1 20,021.0 20,036.3 718.2 3.7 32,734.6 12,698.4 63.4

Horned grebe High 162.9 169.8 164.8 1.9 1.2 28.3 -136.6 -82.9

Moderate 341.1 327.8 322.2 -19.0 -5.6 75.6 -246.6 -76.5

Low 1,951.6 1,893.6 2,017.6 66.0 3.4 478.1 -1,539.5 -76.3

Very low to Nil 35,693.4 35,757.8 35,644.4 -49.0 -0.1 37,567.0 1,922.6 5.4

Western toad High 13,403.8 10,953.9 11,603.9 -1,799.9 -13.4 1,435.1 -10,168.8 -87.6

Moderate 8,495.0 9,100.2 11,536.5 3,041.5 35.8 571.8 -10,964.6 -95.0

Low 11,887.9 10,142.7 7,887.3 -4,000.6 -33.7 3,911.5 -3,975.7 -50.4

Very low to Nil 4,362.3 7,952.1 7,121.4 2,759.1 63.2 32,230.5 25,109.1 352.6

Canadian toad High 1,774.4 1,735.7 983.8 -790.7 -44.6 691.5 -292.3 -29.7

Moderate 12,514.3 11,930.8 10,820.7 -1,693.6 -13.5 4,479.4 -6,341.3 -58.6

Low 1,515.0 2,051.1 2,233.8 718.8 47.4 1,754.3 -479.5 -21.5

Very low to Nil 22,345.2 22,431.3 24,110.7 1,765.5 7.9 31,223.8 7,113.1 29.5





Table 136a.5-2 Change in Habitat Availability in the RSA (Refined Table 4-7)

KeyIndicatorSpecies

HabitatSuitability

Rating

Reference Conditions

Base Case

Change fromPredevelopment to

Base Case

ApplicationCase

Change from BaseCase to Application

Case PDCChange from PDC to

Base CaseProject

Contribution

Predevelop-ment Existing

ProjectMaximumBuild-out

Project MaximumBuild-out



ApplicationCase / PDC

ha ha ha ha % ha ha % ha ha % %

RonaldLake bisonherd

High 16,456.2 13,681.1 13,073.6 -3,382.6 -20.6 9,579.8 -3,493.8 -26.7 9,579.8 -3,493.8 -26.7 100.0

Moderate 25,694.6 22,288.6 21,980.8 -3,713.8 -14.5 19,298.5 -2,682.4 -12.2 19,298.5 -2,682.4 -12.2 100.0

Low 53,502.8 41,658.9 41,120.2 -12,382.6 -23.1 32,009.6 -9,110.6 -22.2 32,009.6 -9,110.6 -22.2 100.0

Very lowto Nil

60,406.2 78,431.2 79,885.1 19,479.0 32.2 95,171.9 15,286.8 19.1 95,171.9 15,286.8 19.1 100.0

Moose High 114,262.4 94,263.9 42,355.7 -71,906.8 -62.9 39,672.9 -2,682.7 -6.3 36,868.8 -5,486.9 -13.0 48.9

Moderate 570,533.3 338,606.3 356,878.2 -213,655.1 -37.4 344,794.0 -12,084.2 -3.4 334,558.3 -22,319.9 -6.3 54.1

Low 351,085.7 322,353.9 275,065.6 -76,020.1 -21.7 272,301.5 -2,764.1 -1.0 262,420.6 -12,645.0 -4.6 21.9

Very lowto Nil

159,678.3 440,335.7 521,260.3 361,582.0 226.4 538,791.3 17,531.0 3.4 561,712.1 40,451.8 7.8 43.3

Woodlandcaribou

High 114,474.7 118,127.5 55,865.3 -58,609.4 -51.2 55,418.7 -446.6 -0.8 53,964.0 -1,901.3 -3.4 23.5

Moderate 203,949.0 119,119.4 149,075.4 -54,873.6 -26.9 148,422.9 -652.5 -0.4 142,681.2 -6,394.2 -4.3 10.2

Low 247,832.7 224,791.0 165,255.5 -82,577.2 -33.3 162,568.5 -2,686.9 -1.6 156,923.6 -8,331.8 -5.0 32.2

Very lowto Nil

629,303.4 733,521.8 825,363.6 196,060.3 31.2 829,149.7 3,786.0 0.5 841,990.9 16,627.3 2.0 22.8

Black bear High 13,228.6 9,548.7 7,963.6 -5,265.0 -39.8 7,726.9 -236.6 -3.0 7,703.5 -260.1 -3.3 91.0

Moderate 498,725.7 470,329.0 300,913.5 -197,812.2 -39.7 283,335.3 -17,578.3 -5.8 276,277.0 -24,636.5 -8.2 71.4

Low 568,468.2 453,278.8 537,154.3 -31,313.9 -5.5 532,472.8 -4,681.5 -0.9 513,797.2 -23,357.1 -4.3 20.0

Very lowto Nil

115,137.3 262,403.2 349,528.3 234,391.0 203.6 372,024.7 22,496.4 6.4 397,782.0 48,253.7 13.8 46.6

Fisher High 53,424.4 55,573.3 24,868.2 -28,556.2 -53.5 22,820.8 -2,047.4 -8.2 22,295.7 -2,572.5 -10.3 79.6

Moderate 190,643.2 150,194.9 92,047.2 -98,596.0 -51.7 82,483.4 -9,563.8 -10.4 78,157.8 -13,889.3 -15.1 68.9

Low 486,264.9 406,421.5 381,000.5 105,264.4 -21.6 374,980.3 -6,020.2 -1.6 363,597.2 -17,403.3 -4.6 34.6

Very lowto Nil

465,227.4 583,370.0 697,643.9 232,416.5 50.0 715,275.3 17,631.4 2.5 731,509.0 33,865.2 4.9 52.1

Canadalynx

High 133,455.6 130,448.0 68,757.4 -64,698.3 -48.5 63,603.2 -5,154.2 -7.5 57,267.0 -11,490.4 -16.7 44.9

Moderate 389,092.4 325,439.9 290,471.8 -98,620.6 -25.3 278,016.3 -12,455.6 -4.3 264,037.1 -26,434.8 -9.1 47.1

Low 561,903.8 530,464.0 495,180.9 -66,722.9 -11.9 487,587.1 -7,593.8 -1.5 474,073.2 -21,107.7 -4.3 36.0

Very lowto Nil

111,107.9 209,207.9 341,149.6 230,041.7 207.0 366,353.2 25,203.5 7.4 400,182.5 59,032.9 17.3 42.7




Table 136a.5-2 Change in Habitat Availability in the RSA (Refined Table 4-7) (cont’d)

KeyIndicatorSpecies

HabitatSuitability

Rating


Base Case


Base Case

ApplicationCase



Base CaseProject

Contribution








Northernand littlebrownmyotis

High 94,892.0 73,980.7 42,707.1 -52,184.8 -55.0 34,788.0 -7,919.1 -18.5 34,477.1 -8,230.1 -19.3 96.2

Moderate 156,395.3 156,093.8 95,054.5 -61,340.8 -39.2 87,056.8 -7,997.7 -8.4 81,089.5 -13,965.1 -14.7 57.3

Low 158,115.8 163,534.9 171,255.2 13,139.4 8.3 166,296.1 -4,959.1 -2.9 156,080.5 -15,174.7 -8.9 32.7

Very lowto Nil

786,156.7 801,950.4 886,542.9 100,386.2 12.8 907,418.8 20,875.9 2.4 923,912.7 37,369.8 4.2 55.9

Beaver High 55,040.4 49,193.7 51,675.9 -3,364.5 -6.1 50,677.7 -998.2 -1.9 48,754.6 -2,921.3 -5.7 34.2

Moderate 63,972.8 56,830.7 53,823.2 -10,149.6 -15.9 52,035.7 -1,787.5 -3.3 50,109.2 -3,714.0 -6.9 48.1

Low 52,954.4 49,124.5 39,001.6 -13,952.8 -26.3 37,618.1 -1,383.5 -3.5 36,296.9 -2,704.7 -6.9 51.2

Very lowto Nil

1,023,592.0 1,040,410.8 1,051,059.1 27,467.1 2.7 1,055,228.3 4,169.3 0.4 1,060,399.1 9,340.0 0.9 44.6

Northerngoshawk

High 165,996.8 142,966.7 69,100.6 -96,896.2 -58.4 61,124.0 -7,976.6 -11.5 59,968.4 -9,132.2 -13.2 87.3

Moderate 123,126.2 110,812.0 96,672.5 -26,453.7 -21.5 89,166.4 -7,506.1 -7.8 86,643.8 -10,028.7 -10.4 74.8

Low 248,776.1 374,678.6 168,505.3 -80,270.8 -32.3 164,286.7 -4,218.6 -2.5 154,129.2 -14,376.2 -8.5 29.3

Very lowto Nil

657,660.5 567,102.5 861,281.4 203,620.9 31.0 880,982.7 19,701.4 2.3 894,818.4 33,537.1 3.9 58.7

Yellow rail High 59,562.6 43,402.1 39,660.7 -19,901.9 -33.4 37,412.1 -2,248.6 -5.7 35,415.3 -4,245.3 -10.7 53.0

Moderate 0.0 7,869.4 5,217.1 5,217.1 #DIV/0! 5,200.8 -16.2 -0.3 5,242.7 25.7 0.5 -63.2

Low 110,654.1 79,702.1 68,423.6 -42,230.5 -38.2 65,604.4 -2,819.1 -4.1 63,199.5 -5,224.1 -7.6 54.0

Very lowto Nil

1,025,342.9 1,064,586.1 1,082,258.4 56,915.5 5.6 1,087,342.4 5,083.9 0.5 1,091,702.2 9,443.7 0.9 53.8

Short-eared owl

High 76,889.2 56,365.7 47,218.4 -29,670.8 -38.6 45,119.5 -2,098.9 -4.4 43,237.5 -3,980.9 -8.4 52.7

Moderate 76,137.1 78,008.7 82,451.8 6,314.6 8.3 81,557.9 -893.8 -1.1 79,697.9 -2,753.8 -3.3 32.5

Low 309,996.4 155,639.6 288,030.2 -21,966.2 -7.1 285,143.8 -2,886.4 -1.0 273,892.8 -14,137.4 -4.9 20.4

Very lowto Nil

732,537.0 905,545.8 777,859.4 45,322.4 6.2 783,738.5 5,879.1 0.8 798,731.5 20,872.1 2.7 28.2






KeyIndicatorSpecies

HabitatSuitability

Rating


Base Case


Base Case

ApplicationCase



Base CaseProject

Contribution








Commonnighthawk

High 28,442.7 14,692.5 9,287.9 -19,154.8 -67.3 8,983.8 -304.1 -3.3 8,871.1 -416.8 -4.5 72.9

Moderate 264,730.7 250,492.5 173,633.6 -91,097.1 -34.4 161,181.5 -12,452.1 -7.2 155,814.9 -17,818.6 -10.3 69.9

Low 367,169.9 310,661.4 299,388.3 -67,781.6 -18.5 293,329.0 -6,059.3 -2.0 284,879.1 -14,509.2 -4.8 41.8

Very lowto Nil

535,216.4 619,713.3 713,250.0 178,033.6 33.3 732,065.4 18,815.4 2.6 745,994.7 32,744.7 4.6 57.5


High 14,727.3 3,238.6 4,532.6 -10,194.7 -69.2 3,971.0 -561.6 -12.4 3,942.9 -589.7 -13.0 95.2

Moderate 64,746.7 32,774.4 26,623.0 -38,123.7 -58.9 24,533.0 -2,090.1 -7.9 22,510.1 -4,112.9 -15.4 50.8

Low 453,089.6 426,186.9 315,248.7 -137,841.0 -30.4 306,525.9 -8,722.8 -2.8 289,996.8 -25,251.8 -8.0 34.5

Very lowto Nil

662,996.2 733,359.9 849,155.5 186,159.3 28.1 860,529.9 11,374.4 1.3 879,109.9 29,954.4 3.5 38.0

Canadawarbler

High 94,892.0 71,707.7 41,918.0 -52,974.0 -55.8 33,997.2 -7,920.8 -18.9 33,731.1 -8,186.9 -19.5 96.8

Moderate 75,423.3 92,508.9 59,699.3 -15,724.0 -20.8 54,023.8 -5,675.5 -9.5 53,164.2 -6,535.1 -10.9 86.8

Low 167,905.4 117,849.5 118,619.4 -49,286.0 -29.4 112,575.2 -6,044.2 -5.1 106,333.6 -12,285.8 -10.4 49.2

Very lowto Nil

857,339.0 913,493.7 975,323.0 117,984.0 13.8 994,963.5 19,640.5 2.0 1,002,330.9 27,007.9 2.8 72.7

Rustyblackbird

High 525,479.1 448,110.3 402,798.4 -122,680.7 -23.3 394,214.9 -8,583.5 -2.1 372,718.6 -30,079.8 -7.5 28.5

Moderate 119,514.6 145,031.3 127,516.3 8,001.7 6.7 124,866.7 -2,649.6 -2.1 121,656.4 -5,859.9 -4.6 45.2

Low 153,731.6 137,748.7 120,657.3 -33,074.4 -21.5 116,833.2 -3,824.1 -3.2 117,718.8 -2,938.5 -2.4 130.1

Very lowto Nil

396,834.5 464,669.4 544,587.7 147,753.2 37.2 559,645.0 15,057.2 2.8 583,465.9 38,878.2 7.1 38.7

Waterfowl High 365,924.1 290,143.9 290,178.2 -75,745.9 -20.7 283,279.1 -6,899.1 -2.4 270,127.1 -20,051.2 -6.9 34.4

Moderate 146,339.9 116,512.9 115,873.9 -30,466.0 -20.8 109,414.7 -6,459.2 -5.6 108,765.1 -7,108.7 -6.1 90.9

Low 40,422.4 35,802.6 35,403.2 -5,019.2 -12.4 35,248.8 -154.4 -0.4 34,529.8 -873.4 -2.5 17.7

Very lowto Nil

642,873.4 753,100.3 754,104.5 111,231.1 17.3 767,617.3 13,512.8 1.8 782,137.7 28,033.3 3.7 48.2





KeyIndicatorSpecies

HabitatSuitability

Rating


Base Case


Base Case

ApplicationCase



Base CaseProject

Contribution








Hornedgrebe

High 2,618.3 2,160.7 1,935.1 -683.2 -26.1 1,786.3 -148.9 -7.7 1,756.8 -178.3 -9.2 83.5

Moderate 4,321.9 3,580.0 3,176.2 -1,145.7 -26.5 2,917.4 -258.8 -8.1 2,843.4 -332.8 -10.5 77.8

Low 18,028.8 15,710.4 15,376.8 -2,652.0 -14.7 13,850.0 -1,526.8 -9.9 12,947.4 -2,429.4 -15.8 62.8

Very lowto Nil

1,170,590.8 1,174,108.8 1,175,071.6 4,480.8 0.4 1,177,006.1 1,934.5 0.2 1,178,012.2 2,940.6 0.3 65.8

Westerntoad

High 434,540.2 319,285.6 274,289.0 -160,251.2 -36.9 263,534.8 -10,754.1 -3.9 248,697.9 -25,591.0 -9.3 42.0

Moderate 322,429.1 312,477.8 282,205.6 -40,223.5 -12.5 271,077.7 -11,128.0 -3.9 255,254.4 -26,951.2 -9.6 41.3

Low 124,222.7 144,117.3 129,929.5 5,706.8 4.6 125,992.2 -3,937.3 -3.0 125,100.9 -4,828.6 -3.7 81.5

Very lowto Nil

314,367.8 419,679.0 509,135.6 194,767.8 62.0 534,955.0 25,819.4 5.1 566,506.5 57,370.9 11.3 45.0

Canadiantoad

High 48,950.6 43,511.0 38,454.5 -10,496.1 -21.4 38,276.0 -178.5 -0.5 36,532.9 -1,921.6 -5.0 9.3

Moderate 450,887.8 408,122.1 345,333.8 -105,554.0 -23.4 338,955.6 -6,378.2 -1.8 322,678.1 -22,655.7 -6.6 28.2

Low 115,057.1 117,204.1 100,324.6 -14,732.5 -12.8 99,946.2 -378.3 -0.4 96,556.5 -3,768.1 -3.8 10.0

Very lowto Nil

580,664.3 626,722.5 711,446.9 130,782.6 22.5 718,382.0 6,935.1 1.0 739,792.3 28,345.4 4.0 24.5





Table 136a.5-3 Magnitude of Change in Habitat Availability (RSA) – Base Case (RefinedTable 4-8b)

KeyIndicatorSpecies

Habitat SuitabilityRanking

ReferenceCondition –

PredevelopmentBaseCase


Base Case

95% Confidence Interval

Change fromBase Case

to RNVValue

Changefrom

ReferenceCondition

ha ha ha % ha % %


High 16,456.2 13,073.6 -3,382.6 -20.6 N/A N/A -20.6

Moderate and High 42,150.8 35,054.5 -7,096.3 -16.8 N/A N/A -16.8

Moose High 114,262.4 42,355.7 -71,906.8 -62.9 N/A N/A -62.9


Woodlandcaribou

High 114,474.7 55,865.3 -58,609.4 -51.2 N/A N/A -51.2


Black bear High 13,228.6 7,963.6 -5,265.0 -39.8 9,010.0 -31.9 -7.9

Moderate and High 511,954.3 308,877.1 -203,077.2 -39.7 487108.45 -4.9 -34.8

Fisher High 53,424.4 24,868.2 -28,556.2 -53.5 33,213.5 -37.8 -15.6

Moderate and High 244,067.6 116,915.4 -127,152.2 -52.1 214,792.7 -12.0 -40.1

Canada lynx High 133,455.6 68,757.4 -64,698.3 -48.5 116,287.2 -12.9 -35.6



High 94,892.0 42,707.1 -52,184.8 -55.0 66,340.7 -30.1 -24.9


Beaver High 55,040.4 51,675.9 -3,364.5 -6.1 N/A N/A -6.1


Northerngoshawk

High 165,996.8 69,100.6 -96,896.2 -58.4 110,849.4 -33.2 -25.2


Yellow rail High 59,562.6 39,660.7 -19,901.9 -33.4 59,562.6 0.0 -33.4

Moderate and High 59,562.6 44,877.7 -14,684.9 -24.7 59,562.6 0.0 -24.7

Short-earedowl

High 76,889.2 47,218.4 -29,670.8 -38.6 N/A N/A -38.6


Commonnighthawk

High 28,442.7 9,287.9 -19,154.8 -67.3 28,442.7 0.0 -67.3



High 14,727.3 4,532.6 -10,194.7 -69.2 9,790.0 -33.5 -35.7


Canadawarbler

High 94,892.0 41,918.0 -52,974.0 -55.8 66,340.0 -30.1 -25.7


Rustyblackbird

High 525,479.1 402,798.4 -122,680.7 -23.3 N/A N/A -23.3


Waterfowl High 365,924.1 290,178.2 -75,745.9 -20.7 365,924.1 0.0 -20.7


Horned grebe High 2,618.3 1,935.1 -683.2 -26.1 2,618.4 0.0 -26.1


Western toad High 434,540.2 274,289.0 -160,251.2 -36.9 428,313.5 -1.4 -35.4


Canadiantoad

High 48,950.6 38,454.5 -10,496.1 -21.4 48,950.6 0.0 -21.4


NOTES:

N/A – Not applicable

RNV – Range of natural variability




Table 136a.5-4 Magnitude of Change in Habitat Availability (RSA) – Application Case(Refined Table 4-8c)

KeyIndicatorSpecies



PredevelopmentApplication

Case

Change fromPredevelopment toApplication Case


Changefrom

ApplicationCase to RNVValue

Changefrom

ReferenceCondition

ha ha ha % ha % %


High 16,456.2 9,579.8 -6,876.4 -41.8 N/A N/A -41.8


Moose High 114,262.4 39,672.9 -74,589.5 -65.3 N/A N/A -65.3


Woodlandcaribou

High 114,474.7 55,418.7 -59,056.0 -51.6 N/A N/A -51.6


Black bear High 13,228.6 7,726.9 -5,501.7 -41.6 9,010.0 -31.9 -9.7


Fisher High 53,424.4 22,820.8 -30,603.6 -57.3 33,213.5 -37.8 -19.5


Canada lynx High 133,455.6 63,603.2 -69,852.5 -52.3 116,287.2 -12.9 -39.5



High 94,892.0 34,788.0 -60,104.0 -63.3 66,340.7 -30.1 -33.3


Beaver High 55,040.4 50,677.7 -4,362.7 -7.9 N/A N/A -7.9


Northerngoshawk

High 165,996.8 61,124.0 -104,872.8 -63.2 110,849.4 -33.2 -30.0


Yellow rail High 59,562.6 37,412.1 -22,150.5 -37.2 59,562.6 0.0 -37.2


Short-earedowl

High 76,889.2 45,119.5 -31,769.7 -41.3 N/A N/A -41.3


Commonnighthawk

High 28,442.7 8,983.8 -19,458.9 -68.4 28,442.7 0.0 -68.4



High 14,727.3 3,971.0 -10,756.3 -73.0 9,790.0 -33.5 -39.5


Canadawarbler

High 94,892.0 33,997.2 -60,894.8 -64.2 66,340.0 -30.1 -34.1


Rustyblackbird

High 525,479.1 394,214.9 -131,264.2 -25.0 N/A N/A -25.0


Waterfowl High 365,924.1 283,279.1 -82,645.0 -22.6 365,924.1 0.0 -22.6


Hornedgrebe

High 2,618.3 1,786.3 -832.1 -31.8 2,618.4 0.0 -31.8




Canadiantoad

High 48,950.6 38,276.0 -10,674.6 -21.8 48,950.6 0.0 -21.8


NOTES:







Table 136a.5-5 Magnitude of Change in Habitat Availability (RSA) – PDC(Refined Table 4-8c)

KeyIndicatorSpecies



Predevelopment PDC


PDC


Change fromPDC to RNVValue

Changefrom

ReferenceCondition

ha ha ha % ha % %


High 16,456.2 9,579.8 -6,876.4 -41.8 N/A N/A -41.8


Moose High 114,262.4 36,868.8 -77,393.6 -67.7 N/A N/A -67.7


Woodlandcaribou

High 114,474.7 53,964.0 -60,510.7 -52.9 N/A N/A -52.9


Black bear High 13,228.6 7,703.5 -5,525.1 -41.8 9,010.0 -31.9 -9.9


Fisher High 53,424.4 22,295.7 -31,128.7 -58.3 33,213.5 -37.8 -20.4


Canada lynx High 133,455.6 57,267.0 -76,188.7 -57.1 116,287.2 -12.9 -44.2



High 94,892.0 34,477.1 -60,414.9 -63.7 66,340.7 -30.1 -33.6


Beaver High 55,040.4 48,754.6 -6,285.8 -11.4 N/A N/A -11.4


Northerngoshawk

High 165,996.8 59,968.4 -106,028.4 -63.9 110,849.4 -33.2 -30.7


Yellow rail High 59,562.6 35,415.3 -24,147.3 -40.5 59,562.6 0.0 -40.5


Short-earedowl

High 76,889.2 43,237.5 -33,651.7 -43.8 N/A N/A -43.8


Commonnighthawk

High 28,442.7 8,871.1 -19,571.6 -68.8 28,442.7 0.0 -68.8



High 14,727.3 3,942.9 -10,784.5 -73.2 9,790.0 -33.5 -39.7


Canadawarbler

High 94,892.0 33,731.1 -61,160.9 -64.5 66,340.0 -30.1 -34.4


Rustyblackbird

High 525,479.1 372,718.6 -152,760.5 -29.1 N/A N/A -29.1


Waterfowl High 365,924.1 270,127.1 -95,797.0 -26.2 365,924.1 0.0 -26.2


Horned grebe High 2,618.3 1,756.8 -861.5 -32.9 2,618.4 0.0 -32.9




Canadiantoad

High 48,950.6 36,532.9 -12,417.7 -25.4 48,950.6 0.0 -25.4


NOTES:






Table 136a.5-6 Effects Classification for Habitat Availability (Refined Table 4-9)

KeyIndicatorSpecies


GeographicExtent of

Effect Duration FrequencyAbility toRecover

Magnitude(% Change from RNV)

Base CaseApplication

Case PDC


High Regional Medium Isolated Reversible High (-20.6) High (-41.8) High (-41.8)

Moderate and High Regional Medium Isolated Reversible High (-16.8) High (-31.5) High (-31.5)

Moose High Regional Medium Isolated Reversible High (-62.9) High (-65.3) High (-67.7)


Woodlandcaribou

High Regional Long Isolated Irreversible High (-51.2) High (-51.6) High (-52.9)

Moderate and High Regional Long Isolated Irreversible High (-35.6) High (-36.0) High (-38.2)

Black bear High Regional Long Isolated Reversible Low (-7.9) Low (-9.7) Low (-9.9)

Moderate and High Regional Long Isolated Reversible High (-34.8) High (-38.3) High (-39.7)

Fisher High Regional Long Isolated Reversible Moderate(-15.6)

Moderate(-19.5)

High (-20.4)


Canadalynx

High Regional Medium Isolated Reversible High (-35.6) High (-39.5) High (-44.2)



High Regional Long Isolated Reversible High (-24.9) High (-33.3) High (-33.6)


Beaver High Regional Medium Isolated Reversible Low (-6.1) Low (-7.9) Moderate(-11.4)

Moderate and High Regional Medium Isolated Reversible Moderate(-11.4)

Moderate(-13.7)

Moderate(-16.9)

Northerngoshawk



Yellow rail High Regional Long Isolated Irreversible High (-33.4) High (-37.2) High (-40.5)


Short-earedowl



Commonnighthawk






Canadawarbler



Rustyblackbird



Waterfowl High Regional Long Isolated Reversible High (-20.7) High (-22.6) High (-26.2)


Hornedgrebe



Westerntoad

High Local Long Isolated Irreversible High (-35.4) High (-37.9) High (-41.3)

Moderate and High Local Long Isolated Irreversible High (-22.7) High (-25.6) High (-29.7)

Canadiantoad







Table 136a.5-7 Environmental Consequence of Changes in Habitat Availability in theRSA (Refined Table 4-10)

KeyIndicatorSpecies

HabitatSuitabilityRanking


Reversibility

RefinedAssessment

Range ofEnvironmentalConsequence

RevisedAssessment

Range ofEnvironmentalConsequence1

Change inAssessmentConclusions

fromRevised toRefined?Base Case

ApplicationCase PDC


High High (-20.6) High (-41.8) High (-41.8) Reversible Moderate Moderate No

Moderate andHigh

High (-16.8) High (-31.5) High (-31.5) Reversible Moderate Moderate No

Moose High High (-62.9) High (-65.3) High (-67.7) Reversible Moderate Moderate No

Moderate andHigh

High (-41.7) High (-43.9) High (-45.8) Reversible Moderate Low Yes

Woodlandcaribou

High High (-51.2) High (-51.6) High (-52.9) Irreversible High High No

Moderate andHigh

High (-35.6) High (-36.0) High (-38.2) Irreversible High High No

Black bear High Low (-7.9) Low (-9.7) Low (-9.9) Reversible Low Low No

Moderate andHigh


Fisher High Moderate(-15.6)

Moderate(-19.5)

High (-20.4) Reversible Low to Moderate Low Yes

Moderate andHigh


Canadalynx


Moderate andHigh

High (-23.1) High (-26.5) High (-30.4) Reversible Moderate Low to Moderate Yes



Moderate andHigh


Beaver High Low (-6.1) Low (-7.9) Moderate(-11.4)

Reversible Low Low No

Moderate andHigh

Moderate(-11.4)

Moderate (-13.7)

Moderate(-16.9)

Reversible Low Low No

Northerngoshawk

High High (-25.2) High (-30.0) High (-30.7) Reversible Moderate Low to Moderate Yes

Moderate andHigh


Yellow rail High High (-33.4) High (-37.2) High (-40.5) Irreversible High High No

Moderate andHigh


Short-eared owl


Moderate andHigh

High (-15.3) High (-17.2) High (-19.7) Irreversible High Moderate toHigh

Yes

Commonnighthawk


Moderate andHigh




Moderate andHigh


Canadawarbler


Moderate andHigh


Rustyblackbird


Moderate andHigh





Table 136a.5-7 Environmental Consequence of Changes in Habitat Availability in theRSA (Refined Table 4-10) (cont’d)

KeyIndicatorSpecies

HabitatSuitabilityRanking


Reversibility

RefinedAssessment

Range ofEnvironmentalConsequence

RevisedAssessment

Range ofEnvironmentalConsequence1

Change inAssessmentConclusions

fromRevised toRefined?Base Case

ApplicationCase PDC

Waterfowl High High (-20.7) High (-22.6) High (-26.2) Reversible Moderate Low Yes

Moderate andHigh


Hornedgrebe


Moderate andHigh


Westerntoad


Moderate andHigh


Canadiantoad

High High (-21.4) High (-21.8) High (-25.4) Reversible Moderate Low Yes

Moderate andHigh


NOTE:1 From the response to ESRD/CEAA Round 2 SIR 136, Appendix 136a.4

136a.5.3 Landscape Connectivity

136a.5.3.1 Results

The detailed methods used for the refined assessment for landscape connectivity follow

those used in the Integrated Application and the responses to ESRD/CEAA Round 1 SIRs


Changes in landscape connectivity in the RSA are summarized for each key indicator

species (see Table 136a.5-8). To streamline the results section, individual discussions of

each key indicator species are not provided as part of this revision. Species-specific

discussions are included in the Integrated Application (see Volume 6, Section 4.5.4 to

4.5.18, Pages 4-42 to 4-233) and the responses to the individual SIRs identified in

ESRD/CEAA Round 2 Appendix 136a.4, Table 4-3. Overall, for all key indicator species

assessed in Table 136a.5-8, there was a decrease of approximately 40% to 45% of

minimal or low movement hindrance habitat for each assessment case when compared to

the revised assessment.

Figures showing movement hindrance across the vegetation and wildlife RSA for the

Base Case, Application Case and PDC are provided:

For moose, see Figures 136a.5-1 to 136a.5-3

For black bear, see Figures 136a.5-4 to 136a.5-6

For wolverine. see Figures 136a.5-7 to 136a.5-9

For fisher, see Figures 136a.5-10 to 136a.5-12

For Canada lynx, see Figures 136a.5-13 to 136a.5-15






There are changes in the wildlife assessment for Base Case, Application Case and the

PDC (see Table 136a.5-9). Reference conditions (including predevelopment and existing

conditions) remain unchanged from the Integrated Application.

The effects classification for moose, black bear, fisher, wolverine and Canada lynx

presented in the revised assessment changed from low at Base Case, Application Case

and PDC (see ESRD/CEAA Round 2 Appendix 136a.4) to high in the refined assessment

(see Table 136a.5-10). Declines are minimal and low (when compared against secure

habitat in the revised assessment), and were consistent across all assessment cases for

each species. Predicted declines are approximately -39% for moose, -31% for black bear,

-36% for fisher, -34% for wolverine, and -30% for Canada lynx. Although no linkage

modelling was done for woodland caribou, it is expected that the magnitude of change

would be high at Base Case, Application Case and PDC based on the refined assessment.


Environmental consequence rankings for moose, black bear, fisher, wolverine and

Canada lynx presented in the Integrated Application and the response to Round 1 SIRs

change from low to moderate in the revised assessment (see ESRD/CEAA Round 2

Appendix 136a.4) to moderate for all species in the refined assessment

(see Table 136a.5-11).

136a.5.3.4 Summary

As with the Integrated Application and the response to the ESRD/CEAA Round 1 SIRs

identified in Section 136a.5.1, the Project will cause decreases in landscape connectivity

for all wildlife species assessed. The environmental consequence rankings of these

changes are expected to be higher in the refined assessment relative to the revised

assessment.

Figure 136a.5-1: Moose Habitat Connectivity – Base Case (Refinement)

63Athabasca River

McClellandLake

T091

T092

T100

T095

T096

T099

T088

T087

T093

T101

T089

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Anzac

Fort McKay

Fort McMurray

R11R12 R09R13 R08R10 R07 R04R06 R05R14 R03R16T103

R15W4

Acknowledgements: Base data: AltaLIS.

Movement HindranceMinimal 6 - 7 Low 8 - 10 Moderate 11 - 13 High 14 - 18

Terrestrial Local Study Area

Wildlife Regional Study AreaMunicipalityHighwayTownshipWatercourseWaterbody

(Original page size: 8.5X11)Author: BZ Checked: CS

Frontier Project – Response to Supplemental Information Request: Round 2 – ESRD/CEAA

0 5 10 15 20

KILOMETRESUTM Zone 12 NAD 831:750,000

123511061-0171Date: 20130906

Figure 136a.5-2: Moose Habitat Connectivity – Application Case (Refinement)

63Athabasca River

McClellandLake

T091

T092

T100

T095

T096

T099

T088

T087

T093

T101

T089

T097

T085

T090

T094

T102

T098

T086

T084

Anzac

Fort McKay

Fort McMurray

R11R12 R09R13 R08R10 R07 R04R06 R05R14 R03R16T103

R15W4







0 5 10 15 20


123511061-0172Date: 20130906

Figure 136a.5-3: Moose Habitat Connectivity – PDC (Refinement)

63Athabasca River

McClellandLake

T091

T092

T100

T095

T096

T099

T088

T087

T093

T101

T089

T097

T085

T090

T094

T102

T098

T086

T084

Anzac

Fort McKay

Fort McMurray

R11R12 R09R13 R08R10 R07 R04R06 R05R14 R03R16T103

R15W4







0 5 10 15 20


123511061-0173Date: 20130906

Figure 136a.5-4: Black Bear Habitat Connectivity – Base Case (Refinement)

63Athabasca River

McClellandLake

T091

T092

T100

T095

T096

T099

T088

T087

T093

T101

T089

T097

T085

T090

T094

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T098

T086

T084

Anzac

Fort McKay

Fort McMurray

R11R12 R09R13 R08R10 R07 R04R06 R05R14 R03R16T103

R15W4







0 5 10 15 20


123511061-0174Date: 20130906

Figure 136a.5-5: Black Bear Habitat Connectivity – Application Case (Refinement)

63Athabasca River

McClellandLake

T091

T092

T100

T095

T096

T099

T088

T087

T093

T101

T089

T097

T085

T090

T094

T102

T098

T086

T084

Anzac

Fort McKay

Fort McMurray

R11R12 R09R13 R08R10 R07 R04R06 R05R14 R03R16T103

R15W4







0 5 10 15 20


123511061-0175Date: 20130906

Figure 136a.5-6: Black Bear Habitat Connectivity – PDC (Refinement)

63Athabasca River

McClellandLake

T091

T092

T100

T095

T096

T099

T088

T087

T093

T101

T089

T097

T085

T090

T094

T102

T098

T086

T084

Anzac

Fort McKay

Fort McMurray

R11R12 R09R13 R08R10 R07 R04R06 R05R14 R03R16T103

R15W4







0 5 10 15 20


123511061-0176Date: 20130906

Figure 136a.5-7: Fisher Habitat Connectivity – Base Case (Refinement)

63Athabasca River

McClellandLake

T091

T092

T100

T095

T096

T099

T088

T087

T093

T101

T089

T097

T085

T090

T094

T102

T098

T086

T084

Anzac

Fort McKay

Fort McMurray

R11R12 R09R13 R08R10 R07 R04R06 R05R14 R03R16T103

R15W4







0 5 10 15 20


123511061-0177Date: 20130906

Figure 136a.5-8: Fisher Habitat Connectivity – Application Case (Refinement)

63Athabasca River

McClellandLake

T091

T092

T100

T095

T096

T099

T088

T087

T093

T101

T089

T097

T085

T090

T094

T102

T098

T086

T084

Anzac

Fort McKay

Fort McMurray

R11R12 R09R13 R08R10 R07 R04R06 R05R14 R03R16T103

R15W4







0 5 10 15 20


123511061-0178Date: 20130906

Figure 136a.5-9: Fisher Habitat Connectivity – PDC (Refinement)

63Athabasca River

McClellandLake

T091

T092

T100

T095

T096

T099

T088

T087

T093

T101

T089

T097

T085

T090

T094

T102

T098

T086

T084

Anzac

Fort McKay

Fort McMurray

R11R12 R09R13 R08R10 R07 R04R06 R05R14 R03R16T103

R15W4







0 5 10 15 20


123511061-0179Date: 20130906

Figure 136a.5-10: Wolverine Habitat Connectivity – Base Case (Refinement)

!

!

!

ST63Athabasca River

McClellandLake

T091

T092

T100

T095

T096

T099

T088

T087

T093

T101

T089

T097

T085

T090

T094

T102

T098

T086

T084

Anzac

Fort McKay

Fort McMurray

R11R12 R09R13 R08R10 R07 R04R06 R05R14 R03R16T103

R15W4


³



Wildlife Regional Study Area! Municipality

HighwayTownshipWatercourseWaterbody

(Original page size: 8.5X11)Author: CES Checked: CS


0 5 10 15 20


123511061-0236Date: 20130911

Figure 136a.5-11: Wolverine Habitat Connectivity – Application Case (Refinement)

63Athabasca River

McClellandLake

T091

T092

T100

T095

T096

T099

T088

T087

T093

T101

T089

T097

T085

T090

T094

T102

T098

T086

T084

Anzac

Fort McKay

Fort McMurray

R11R12 R09R13 R08R10 R07 R04R06 R05R14 R03R16T103

R15W4







0 5 10 15 20


123511061-0181Date: 20130906

Figure 136a.5-12: Wolverine Habitat Connectivity – PDC (Refinement)

63Athabasca River

McClellandLake

T091

T092

T100

T095

T096

T099

T088

T087

T093

T101

T089

T097

T085

T090

T094

T102

T098

T086

T084

Anzac

Fort McKay

Fort McMurray

R11R12 R09R13 R08R10 R07 R04R06 R05R14 R03R16T103

R15W4







0 5 10 15 20


123511061-0182Date: 20130906

Figure 136a.5-13: Canada Lynx Habitat Connectivity – Base Case (Refinement)

63Athabasca River

McClellandLake

T091

T092

T100

T095

T096

T099

T088

T087

T093

T101

T089

T097

T085

T090

T094

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T086

T084

Anzac

Fort McKay

Fort McMurray

R11R12 R09R13 R08R10 R07 R04R06 R05R14 R03R16T103

R15W4







0 5 10 15 20


123511061-0183Date: 20130906

Figure 136a.5-14: Canada Lynx Habitat Connectivity – Application Case (Refinement)

63Athabasca River

McClellandLake

T091

T092

T100

T095

T096

T099

T088

T087

T093

T101

T089

T097

T085

T090

T094

T102

T098

T086

T084

Anzac

Fort McKay

Fort McMurray

R11R12 R09R13 R08R10 R07 R04R06 R05R14 R03R16T103

R15W4







0 5 10 15 20


123511061-0184Date: 20130906

Figure 136a.5-15: Canada Lynx Habitat Connectivity – PDC (Refinement)

63Athabasca River

McClellandLake

T091

T092

T100

T095

T096

T099

T088

T087

T093

T101

T089

T097

T085

T090

T094

T102

T098

T086

T084

Anzac

Fort McKay

Fort McMurray

R11R12 R09R13 R08R10 R07 R04R06 R05R14 R03R16T103

R15W4







0 5 10 15 20


123511061-0185Date: 20130906





Table 136a.5-8 Change in Landscape Connectivity in the RSA (Refined Table 4-11)

KeyIndicatorSpecies

MovementHindrance


Base Case

Change fromPredevelopment to Base

Case

ApplicationCase

Change from Base Caseto Application Case PDC

Change from Base Caseto PDC



ProjectMaximum Build-out


ProjectMaximum Build-out

ha ha ha ha % ha ha % ha ha %

Moose High 0.0 400,129.3 468,022.2 468,022.2 N/A 482,811.7 14,789.4 3.2 471,806.4 3,784.1 0.8

Moderate 0.0 193,867.9 166,869.2 166,869.2 N/A 161,102.0 -5,767.2 -3.5 174,467.6 7,598.4 4.6

Low 510,764.0 364,010.7 327,358.7 -183,405.3 -35.9 323,350.7 -4,008.1 -1.2 325,985.5 -1,373.2 -0.4

Minimal 684,795.7 237,551.8 233,309.6 -451,486.1 -65.9 228,295.4 -5,014.2 -2.1 223,300.3 -10,009.3 -4.3

Black bear High 0.0 209,852.8 320,005.0 320,005.0 N/A 342,264.2 22,259.2 7.0 362,430.0 42,425.0 13.3

Moderate 0.0 306,723.2 247,086.8 247,086.8 N/A 236,037.2 -11,049.6 -4.5 226,082.9 -21,003.9 -8.5

Low 683,605.5 497,453.8 508,560.2 -175,045.3 -25.6 500,259.8 -8,300.4 -1.6 490,759.5 -17,800.7 -3.5

Minimal 511,954.2 181,529.9 119,907.7 -392,046.5 -76.6 116,998.5 -2,909.2 -2.4 116,287.3 -3,620.4 -3.0

Fisher High 0.0 350,559.4 428,799.4 428,799.4 N/A 446,993.7 18,194.3 4.2 465,243.4 36,444.0 8.5

Moderate 0.0 233,016.8 198,813.1 198,813.1 N/A 190,565.2 -8,247.8 -4.1 181,903.1 -16,910.0 -8.5

Low 951,492.2 517,120.9 518,930.4 -432,561.8 -45.5 511,532.0 -7,398.4 -1.4 502,306.0 -16,624.4 -3.2

Minimal 244,067.5 94,862.7 49,016.9 -195,050.6 -79.9 46,468.9 -2,548.0 -5.2 46,107.3 -2,909.6 -5.9

Wolverine High 0.0 373,965.7 437,368.5 437,368.5 N/A 451,548.9 14,180.4 3.2 467,300.2 29,931.7 6.8

Moderate 0.0 198,877.1 169,491.6 169,491.6 N/A 165,413.6 -4,078.0 -2.4 157,664.3 -11,827.4 -7.0

Low 0.0 406,240.3 372,023.9 372,023.9 N/A 366,980.8 -5,043.1 -1.4 362,825.3 -9,198.7 -2.5

Minimal 1,195,559.7 216,476.7 216,675.7 -978,884.0 -81.9 211,616.5 -5,059.2 -2.3 207,770.0 -8,905.7 -4.1

Canadalynx

High 0.0 197,371.2 307,652.9 307,652.9 N/A 328,897.5 21,244.6 6.9 355,286.2 47,633.3 15.5

Moderate 0.0 283,713.4 231,681.3 231,681.3 N/A 222,029.9 -9,651.4 -4.2 208,801.0 -22,880.3 -9.9

Low 673,011.7 511,418.4 486,957.4 -186,054.3 -27.6 479,873.3 -7,084.1 -1.5 471,329.9 -15,627.5 -3.2

Minimal 522,548.0 203,056.8 169,268.1 -353,279.9 -67.6 164,759.1 -4,509.1 -2.7 160,142.7 -9,125.5 -5.4

NOTE:





Table 136a.5-9 Magnitude of Change in Landscape Connectivity in the RSA (Refined Table 4-12)

KeyIndicatorSpecies

Predevelopment Existing


Existing Base Case


Base CaseApplication

Case

Change fromPredevelopment toApplication Case PDC


PDC

ha ha ha % Ha ha % ha ha % ha ha %

Moose 1,195,559.7 601,562.5 -593,997.2 -49.7 560,668.3 -634,891.4 -53.1 551,646.1 -643,913.6 -53.9 549,285.8 -646,273.9 -54.1

Black bear 1,195,559.7 678,983.7 -516,576.0 -43.2 628,467.9 -567,091.8 -47.4 617,258.3 -578,301.4 -48.4 607,046.8 -588,512.9 -49.2

Fisher 1,195,559.7 611,983.6 -583,576.1 -48.8 567,947.3 -627,612.4 -52.5 558,000.8 -637,558.9 -53.3 548,413.3 -647,146.4 -54.1

Wolverine 1,195,559.7 622,716.9 -572,842.8 -47.9 588,699.6 -606,860.1 -50.8 578,597.3 -616,962.4 -51.6 570,595.2 -624,964.5 -52.3

Canadalynx

1,195,559.7 714,475.2 -481,084.5 -40.2 656,225.6 -539,334.1 -45.1 644,632.4 -550,927.4 -46.1 631,472.5 -564,087.2 -47.2

Table 136a.5-10 Effects Classification for Landscape Connectivity (Refined Table 4-13)


GeographicExtent of Effect Duration Frequency

Ability toRecover

Magnitude (% Change)

Base Case Application Case PDC

Moose Regional Long Continuous Reversible High (-53.1) High (-53.9) High (-54.1)

Black bear Regional Long Continuous Reversible High (-47.4) High (-48.4) High (-49.2)

Fisher Regional Long Continuous Reversible High (-52.5) High (-53.3) High (-54.1)

Wolverine Regional Long Continuous Reversible High (-50.8) High (-51.6) High (-52.3)

Canada lynx Regional Medium Continuous Reversible High (-45.1) High (-46.1) High (-47.2)





Table 136a.5-11 Environmental Consequence of Changes in Landscape Connectivity inthe RSA (Refined Table 4-14)


Magnitude(% Change)

ReversibilityEnvironmentalConsequenceExisting Base Case

ApplicationCase PDC

Moose High (-49.7) High (-53.1) High (-53.9) High (-54.1) Reversible Moderate

Black bear High (-43.2) High (-47.4) High (-48.4) High (-49.2) Reversible Moderate

Fisher High (-48.8) High (-52.5) High (-53.3) High (-54.1) Reversible Moderate

Wolverine High (-47.9) High (-50.8) High (-51.6) High (-52.3) Reversible Moderate

Canada lynx High (-40.2) High (-45.1) High (-46.1) High (-47.2) Reversible Moderate

136a.5.4 Mortality Risk

136a.5.4.1 Results

The detailed methods used for the refined assessment for mortality risk follows those

used in the Integrated Application and the responses to the ESRD/CEAA Round 1 SIRs


136a.5.4.1.1 Interactions with Vehicles and Equipment

Because vehicle interactions were assessed at maximum build-out for the Integrated

Application and no change is expected as a result of Project revisions, this key issue is

not discussed as part of the refined assessment.

Changes in direct mortality risk for western toads are summarized for the revised

terrestrial LSA and vegetation and wildlife RSA for the refined assessment

(see Table 136a.5-12 and Table 136a.5-13, respectively).

As would be expected, there is a decline in moderate- and high-habitat availability for

western toad in both the revised terrestrial LSA and the vegetation and wildlife RSA.

This decline is expected for the refined assessment (with progressive reclamation not

included) when compared to the revised assessment) (see ESRD/CEAA Round 2

Appendix 136a.4) and applies to the Base Case, Application Case and PDC (RSA only).

Figures showing core security in the vegetation and wildlife RSA for Base Case,

Application Case and PDC are provided:

For moose, see Figures 136a.5-16 to 136a.5-18

For black bear, see Figures 136a.5-19 to 136a.5-21

For wolverine, see Figures 136a.5-22 to 136a.5-24

For Canada lynx, see Figures 136a.5-25 to 136a.5-27




Table 136a.5-12 Relative Direct Mortality Risk for Western Toad in the LSA (Refined Table 4-16a)


Base CaseChange from Predevelopment to Base

Case

Application CaseChange from Base Case to Application

Case


Build-out Project Maximum Build-out


21,898.7 20,054.2 23,140.3 1,241.6 5.7 2,006.9 -21,133.4 -91.3

Table 136a.5-13 Relative Direct Mortality Risk for Western Toad in the RSA (Refined Table 4-16b)


Base Case


Base Case

ApplicationCase


Case PDCChange from Base

Case to PDCProject

Contribution

Pre-development Existing







756,969.3 631,763.4 556,494.6 -200,474.7 -26.5 534,612.5 -21,882.1 -3.9 503,952.3 -52,542.3 -9.4 41.6

Figure 136a.5-16: Moose Core Security – Base Case (Refinement)

63Athabasca River

McClellandLake

T091

T092

T100

T095

T096

T099

T088

T087

T093

T101

T089

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T084

Anzac

Fort McKay

Fort McMurray

R11R12 R09R13 R08R10 R07 R04R06 R05R14 R03R16T103

R15W4


Core SecurityMoose Core Security Area < 220 ha None





0 5 10 15 20


123511061-0186Date: 20130906

Figure 136a.5-17: Moose Core Security – Application Case (Refinement)

63Athabasca River

McClellandLake

T091

T092

T100

T095

T096

T099

T088

T087

T093

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T084

Anzac

Fort McKay

Fort McMurray

R11R12 R09R13 R08R10 R07 R04R06 R05R14 R03R16T103

R15W4







0 5 10 15 20


123511061-0187Date: 20130906

Figure 136a.5-18: Moose Core Security – PDC (Refinement)

63Athabasca River

McClellandLake

T091

T092

T100

T095

T096

T099

T088

T087

T093

T101

T089

T097

T085

T090

T094

T102

T098

T086

T084

Anzac

Fort McKay

Fort McMurray

R11R12 R09R13 R08R10 R07 R04R06 R05R14 R03R16T103

R15W4







0 5 10 15 20


123511061-0188Date: 20130906

Figure 136a.5-19: Black Bear Core Security – Base Case (Refinement)

63Athabasca River

McClellandLake

T091

T092

T100

T095

T096

T099

T088

T087

T093

T101

T089

T097

T085

T090

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T086

T084

Anzac

Fort McKay

Fort McMurray

R11R12 R09R13 R08R10 R07 R04R06 R05R14 R03R16T103

R15W4


Core SecurityBlack Bear Core Security Area Unsecure Habitat None





0 5 10 15 20


123511061-0189Date: 20130906

Figure 136a.5-20: Black Bear Core Security – Application Case (Refinement)

63Athabasca River

McClellandLake

T091

T092

T100

T095

T096

T099

T088

T087

T093

T101

T089

T097

T085

T090

T094

T102

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T086

T084

Anzac

Fort McKay

Fort McMurray

R11R12 R09R13 R08R10 R07 R04R06 R05R14 R03R16T103

R15W4







0 5 10 15 20


123511061-0190Date: 20130906

Figure 136a.5-21: Black Bear Core Security – PDC (Refinement)

63Athabasca River

McClellandLake

T091

T092

T100

T095

T096

T099

T088

T087

T093

T101

T089

T097

T085

T090

T094

T102

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T086

T084

Anzac

Fort McKay

Fort McMurray

R11R12 R09R13 R08R10 R07 R04R06 R05R14 R03R16T103

R15W4







0 5 10 15 20


123511061-0191Date: 20130906

Figure 136a.5-22: Wolverine Core Security – Base Case (Refinement)

!

!

!

ST63Athabasca River

McClellandLake

T091

T092

T100

T095

T096

T099

T088

T087

T093

T101

T089

T097

T085

T090

T094

T102

T098

T086

T084

Anzac

Fort McKay

Fort McMurray

R11R12 R09R13 R08R10 R07 R04R06 R05R14 R03R16T103

R15W4


³

Core SecurityWolverine Core Security Area Unsecure Habitat None


Wildlife Regional Study Area! Municipality

HighwayTownshipWatercourseWaterbody

(Original page size: 8.5X11)Author: CES Checked: CS


0 5 10 15 20


123511061-0235Date: 20130911

Figure 136a.5-23: Wolverine Core Security – Application Case (Refinement)

63Athabasca River

McClellandLake

T091

T092

T100

T095

T096

T099

T088

T087

T093

T101

T089

T097

T085

T090

T094

T102

T098

T086

T084

Anzac

Fort McKay

Fort McMurray

R11R12 R09R13 R08R10 R07 R04R06 R05R14 R03R16T103

R15W4







0 5 10 15 20


123511061-0193Date: 20130906

Figure 136a.5-24: Wolverine Core Security – PDC (Refinement)

63Athabasca River

McClellandLake

T091

T092

T100

T095

T096

T099

T088

T087

T093

T101

T089

T097

T085

T090

T094

T102

T098

T086

T084

Anzac

Fort McKay

Fort McMurray

R11R12 R09R13 R08R10 R07 R04R06 R05R14 R03R16T103

R15W4







0 5 10 15 20


123511061-0194Date: 20130906

Figure 136a.5-25: Canada Lynx Core Security – Base Case (Refinement)

63Athabasca River

McClellandLake

T091

T092

T100

T095

T096

T099

T088

T087

T093

T101

T089

T097

T085

T090

T094

T102

T098

T086

T084

Anzac

Fort McKay

Fort McMurray

R11R12 R09R13 R08R10 R07 R04R06 R05R14 R03R16T103

R15W4


Core SecurityCanada Lynx Core Security Area

Unsecure Habitat None





0 5 10 15 20


123511061-0195Date: 20130906

Figure 136a.5-26: Canada Lynx Core Security – Application Case (Refinement)

63Athabasca River

McClellandLake

T091

T092

T100

T095

T096

T099

T088

T087

T093

T101

T089

T097

T085

T090

T094

T102

T098

T086

T084

Anzac

Fort McKay

Fort McMurray

R11R12 R09R13 R08R10 R07 R04R06 R05R14 R03R16T103

R15W4








0 5 10 15 20


123511061-0196Date: 20130906

Figure 136a.5-27: Canada Lynx Core Security – PDC (Refinement)

63Athabasca River

McClellandLake

T091

T092

T100

T095

T096

T099

T088

T087

T093

T101

T089

T097

T085

T090

T094

T102

T098

T086

T084

Anzac

Fort McKay

Fort McMurray

R11R12 R09R13 R08R10 R07 R04R06 R05R14 R03R16T103

R15W4








0 5 10 15 20


123511061-0197Date: 20130906





136a.5.4.1.2 Interactions with Project Infrastructure

Revisions to the Project will result in negligible changes to mortality risk associated with

interactions with Project infrastructure. Therefore, no further assessment of these changes

is included in this refined assessment.

136a.5.4.1.3 Risk from Hunting and Trapping

Changes in core security area (indirect mortality risk associated with hunting and

trapping) are summarized for each key indicator species (see Table 136a.5-14). To

streamline the results section, individual discussions of each key indicator species are not

provided as part of this refined assessment. Species-specific discussions are included in

the Integrated Application (see Volume 6, Section 4.7.7, Pages 4-305 to 4-333) and in

response to the Round 1 SIRs identified in Section 136a.5.1.

As would be expected, there is a decline in secure habitat in the vegetation and wildlife

RSA for all key indicator species for the refined assessment (with progressive

reclamation not included) when compared to the revised assessment (see ESRD/CEAA

Round 2 Appendix 136a.4). This is true for the Base Case, Application Case and PDC.

Declines in secure habitat compared against secure habitat in the revised assessment were

consistent across all assessment cases for each species, and were approximately -37% for

moose, -18% for black bear, -49% for wolverine, and -17% for Canada lynx.




Table 136a.5-14 Changes in Core Security Area in the RSA (Refined Table 4-17)

Condition/Case Reference Condition

BaseCase

Change fromPredevelopment

Condition to BaseCase

ApplicationCase

Change fromBase Case to

Application Case

PlannedDevelopment

CaseChange from Base

Case to PDCProject

Contribution

KeyIndicatorSpecies


FrontierMaximumBuild-out

Frontier MaximumBuild-out

FrontierMaximumBuild-out

Frontier MaximumBuild-out Application/PDC


Moose 1,025,809.1 635,961.0 567,729.5 -458,079.6 -44.7 552,137.0 -15,592.5 -2.7 534,377.4 -33,352.1 -5.9 46.8

Black bear 1,058,935.5 875,920.7 773,692.8 -285,242.7 -26.9 742,349.2 -31,343.6 -4.1 714,624.8 -59,067.9 -7.6 53.1

Wolverine 1,170,311.7 812,833.0 415,265.3 -755,046.3 -64.5 406,308.2 -8,957.1 -2.2 391,564.9 -23,700.4 -5.7 37.8

Canadalynx

1,079,110.2 914,872.0 778,850.7 -300,259.5 -27.8 750,596.3 -28,254.4 -3.6 715,272.2 -63,578.6 -8.2 44.4






Changes in regional population levels are not assessed as part of this appendix due to the

removal of progressive reclamation from the landscape in the vegetation and wildlife

RSA. For mortality risk, it is expected that the magnitude of the effect would increase to

moderate for moose, black bear, wolverine and Canada lynx. For woodland caribou,

mortality risk, although not quantified as part of the refined assessment, would be high

for all assessment cases.


Although changes in regional population levels were not quantified and assessed as part

of this appendix (due to the removal of progressive reclamation from the landscape in the

vegetation and wildlife RSA), it is expected that the environmental consequence ranking

for mortality risk would remain low (unchanged) for moose, black bear, wolverine and

Canada lynx. For woodland caribou, changes in regional population levels were also not

quantified as part of the refined assessment. However, the environmental consequence

ranking for mortality risk of this species is considered high for all assessment cases due

to its endangered status.

136a.5.4.4 Prediction Confidence

No change to Volume 6, Section 4.7.7 or the responses to the ESRD/CEAA Round 1 SIRs

identified in Table 4-3.

136a.5.4.5 Responses to Aboriginal Community Concerns


referred to in Table 4-3.

136a.5.4.6 Management and Monitoring


referred to in Section 136a.5.1.

136a.5.4.7 Summary

As with the Integrated Application and the responses to the ESRD/CEAA Round 1 SIRs

referred to in Section 136a.5.1, mortality risk, including direct (i.e., Project-related) and

indirect (not associated directly with Project activities), has the potential to affect

population levels of key indicator wildlife species in the RSA.

appendix 136a.5 wildlife refined assessment · 136a.5.4.7 summary.....136a.5-52. esrd and ceaa...

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