appendix d-1 ace extension core capacity … · the ridership forecasting referred to herein has...

Appendix D-1 ACE Extension Core Capacity Memorandum

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AECOM

300 Lakeside Drive

Suite 400

Oakland, California 94612-3596

www.aecom.com

510 893 3600 tel

The purpose of this memo is to assess the capacity utilization and ridership patterns of current ACE

service and evaluate core capacity as service is expanded. In the coming decade, SJRRC plans to

extend ACE from Stockton to Natomas in 2020 and Lathrop to Ceres in 2023. While only the Lathrop

to Ceres project is currently funded, this memo conservatively includes both extensions.

At present, the above extensions are planned without an increase in the four daily round trips on the

existing route. To accommodate the increases in ridership expected with the extensions, ACE

proposes to increase train lengths. This memo evaluates this approach and considers additional

capacity investments that may be required.

The ridership forecasting referred to herein has been conducted using the AECOM ACE Passenger

Rail Forecasting Model (“ACE Model”) for the proposed “implementation year” of the ACE extensions.

To align with demographic projections for generating ridership forecasts, 2025 is designated as the

“implementation year” following the expected start of service on both extensions.

The first two sections of this memo contain the project description of the ACE extensions and the

overall ridership forecast. The third section details the existing capacity utilization, and the fourth

section presents the utilization for 2025. The final section sums up the conclusions regarding the

capacity utilization with the extensions.

Project Description

Table 1 presents the existing and proposed service changes to each train for the year 2025, showing

which trains are extended to Ceres and Natomas.

Table 1: 2025 Service Changes by Train

Figure 1 shows the proposed route and stations for both the San Joaquins service and ACE under

the Valley Rail Project, as defined in the San Joaquin Joint Powers Authority’s and San Joaquin

To Dan Leavitt Page 1

CC

Stacey Mortensen

Brian Schmidt

Subject

ACE Core Capacity Analysis –

Revised for ACE Extension Lathrop to Ceres/Merced Draft EIR

From

Ryan Park

Laura McWethy

Date March 27, 2018

Existing (Stockton – San Jose) Extensions

Departs Arrives Origin Destination Departs Arrives

ACE01 4:20 AM 6:32 AM Ceres San Jose 4:17 AM 6:45 AM

ACE03

5:35 AM 7:47 AM Stockton San Jose 5:33 AM 7:45 AM

ACE05 6:40 AM 8:52 AM Stockton San Jose 6:33 AM 8:45 AM

ACE07 7:05 AM 9:17 AM Natomas San Jose 6:19 AM 9:45 AM

ACE04 3:35 PM 5:47 PM San Jose Ceres 3:15 PM 5:43 PM ACE06 4:35 PM 6:47 PM San Jose Natomas 4:15 PM 7:41 PM

ACE08 5:35 PM 7:47 PM San Jose Stockton 5:15 PM 7:27 PM

ACE10 6:38 PM 8:50 PM San Jose Stockton 6:15 PM 8:27 PM

ACE Core Capacity Analysis March 27, 2018

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Regional Rail Commission’s joint 2018 Transit and Intercity Rail Capital Program application. In

addition to the four round trips traveling on the existing route, three roundtrips are planned to operate

between Ceres and Natomas and one round trip between Stockton and Natomas. These trains would

connect with the trains traveling on the existing route, increasing the overall service on the existing

route. The Ceres extension would include new rail stations at Ripon, Modesto, and Ceres, and bus

connections to Turlock, Livingston/Atwater, and Merced. The Natomas extension would include new

stations at Lodi, Elk Grove, City College, Sacramento Midtown, Old North Sacramento, and Natomas,

dependent on funding. For the most conservative estimates of capacity utilization, all stations are

included in the ridership modeling presented in this memo.

Figure 1: Valley Rail Project

Ridership Forecast

With the extensions, ridership is expected to surpass 3 million, over 85 percent more riders than

projected for 2025 No Build (the existing route and service with no extensions). Table 2 breaks down

the ridership by markets (rows) and route segments (columns, labeled A – E) for both the No Build

and Project scenarios. Existing markets are markets are shaded orange, while new markets

accessed by the extensions are shaded blue. Overall, ridership in the existing markets would be

somewhat reduced under the Valley Rail Project as compared to the No Build, since direct service

to/from Stockton would be reduced from four trains to three, and Stockton riders would have a few

minutes of additional travel time stopping at the new North Lathrop transfer station. However,

ridership within and between the Tri Valley and Silicon Valley markets would increase because of an

improved schedule under the Project; trains would be operated over a somewhat longer span of

service and at regular intervals.


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Table 2: 2025 Ridership Forecasts

Existing Markets/Service

New Markets/Service

2025 No Build

2025 Valley Rail Project Sacramento and Ceres Extensions, Merced-Ceres Bus Connection

A B C D E

Route Segment: Stockton – San Jose

Stockton – San Jose

Ceres* – San Jose (direct)

Ceres* – San Jose (transfer)

Sacramento – San Jose

Ceres* – Sacramento

Total

Daily Round Trips: (see notes below)

4 3 1 ** *** 3½ 7½

AM Train Number(s) 01 03 05 07 03 05 07 01 03 05 07 07

PM Train Number(s) 04 06 08 10 06 08 10 04 06 08 10 06

Within Sacramento Area and Lodi 25,700 25,700

376,900 376

376,900

402,600 402,600 Sacramento Ext to/from Stockton-Lathrop-Tracy 11,000

11,000 15,900 15,900

26,900 26,900 Sacramento Ext to/from Ceres Ext

205,400 205,400

205,400 205,400 Sacramento Ext to/from Tri Valley 62,000

62,000 62,000

62,000 Sacramento Ext to/from Silicon Valley-Fremont 190,300 190,300

190,300 190,300 Within Ceres Ext 3,700

400 11,200

11,200 14,900 14,800 Ceres Ext to/from Stockton-Lathrop-Tracy 4,000

600 700 4,200

4,200 8,900 8,900 Ceres Ext to/from Tri Valley 53,900

46,100 65,000 118,900

118,800 Ceres Ext to/from Silicon Valley-Fremont 200,000 150,600

211,400 411,400 411,600 Within Stockton-Lathrop-Tracy 1,800 1,200 100

100

1,300 1,300 Stockton-Lathrop-Tracy to/from Tri Valley 270,800 213,000 32,900

32,900 245,900

245,900 Stockton-Lathrop-Tracy to/from Silicon Valley-Fr. 773,000 603,300 94,800 94,800

698,100 698,100 Within Tri Valley 52,600 46,100 12,200 58,300 58,300 Tri Valley to/from Silicon Valley-Fremont 523,000 455,100 125,500

125,500 580,600

580,600 Within Silicon Valley-Fremont 117,000 94,700 32,300 6,300

127,000 24,800 Annual Ridership Total 1,738,200

1.337.200 1,337,200

1,413,400 1.337.200 1,337,200

559,400 469,500

277,100 289,000 289,000

613,600 613,600

3,152,500 3,050,300 Notes: * Merced – Ceres Bus connects with each Ceres train

** 3 Ceres – Sacramento trains (Column E) connect with 3 Stockton – San Jose trains (Column A): transfer at North Lathrop *** 1 Stockton – San Jose train (Column A) begins/ends in Sacramento (½) 1 “half train” operates only between Sacramento and Stockton


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Table 3 shows the progression of ridership growth from 2013 to 2017 and to the 2025 scenario

forecasts. The 2013 and 2017 results are outputs from the ACE Model, calibrated to actual ridership

counts from the respective year. The “Sacramento Area and Lodi”, “Stockton-Lathrop-Tracy” and

“Ceres Extension” markets in Table 2 are aggregated as “Central Valley”. In 2025, travel within the

Central Valley increases from 1,800 annual riders under No Build to 660,000 with the extensions; this

ridership would have no impact on the ACE trunk line between Lathrop and San Jose. Trips to and

from Silicon Valley include Fremont, which is forecast to amount to 15 percent of the Central Valley

to/from Silicon Valley market in 2025.

Table 3: Annual Ridership Market Summary, 2013 and 2017 Model Outputs to 2025 Forecasts

2013 Modeled

2017 Modeled

2025 No Build

2025 Valley Rail

Project Sacramento and Ceres

Extensions, Merced-

Ceres Bus Connection

Within Central Valley 1,300 1,600 1,800 660,000 1,300 Central Valley to/from Tri Valley 184,200 232,900 270,800 426,800

245,900

Central Valley to/from Silicon Valley-Fr. 529,000 668,400 773,000 1,299,800 698,100 Within Tri Valley 35,700 45,000 52,600 58,300 58,300 Tri Valley to/from Silicon Valley-Fremont 356,200 448,700 523,000 580,600

580,600 Within Silicon Valley-Fremont 74,600 100,700 117,000 127,000 24,800 Annual Ridership Total 1,181,000 1,497,300 1,738,200

1.337.200 1,337,200

3,152,500 3,050,300

Existing Conditions

With four westbound departures in the morning and four eastbound departures in the

afternoon/evening each weekday, ACE provides a commute alternative for jobs in Tri Valley and

Silicon Valley. In October 2017, ACE served an average of 5,809 daily riders.

Peaking by Service Day

ACE ridership varies from day to day, with the highest ridership occurring midweek (Tuesdays,

Wednesdays, and Thursdays), followed by Mondays, with the least ridership on Fridays. In October

2017, average Tuesday-Thursday ridership totaled 6,053 (104% of the average daily ridership for the

month), average Monday ridership totaled 5,845 (101% of the average for the month), and average

Friday ridership totaled 4,969 (86% of the average for the month). Given these results, core capacity

is evaluated for Tuesday-Thursday trains.

Peaking by Train

Similar to the peaking of ACE ridership midweek, the first and last trains in each direction of the

service day have lower ridership than the second and third trains. ACE has adjusted train lengths

accordingly, operating the first train of each directional service period (ACE01 and ACE04) as 6-car

trains, the second and third trains (ACE03, ACE05, ACE06 and ACE08) as 7-car trains, and the last

train (ACE07 and ACE10) as 5-car trains.

This pattern holds true, regardless of the day of the week; however, the average train ridership for the

month of October 2017 presented in Table 1 specifically reflects Tuesday-Thursday trains.

Residents of San Joaquin Valley commute to jobs in both Tri Valley and Silicon Valley, while Tri

Valley residents commute to Silicon Valley. Figure 2 shows the average seated capacity utilization

between each station pair in October 2017 for ACE03 and ACE06, the trains with the highest

ridership in each direction. The peak load typically occurs where both commuting markets have their


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highest ridership on board: in the westbound direction, between Pleasanton (in Tri Valley) and

Fremont (in Silicon Valley); in the eastbound direction, between Fremont and Pleasanton. The

greatest average capacity utilization on ACE03 and ACE06 occurred between this station pair, and

was 79 and 83 percent, respectively.

Figure 2: Average Seated Capacity Utilization, October 2017

Analysis of October 2017 data found that while Fremont-Pleasanton dominates as the peak link,

about ten percent of trains have their point of highest capacity utilization between Great America and

Fremont or in Tri Valley. As a consequence, the average peak link load – including all of the station

pairs where the peak link load occurs – is somewhat greater than the average Fremont/ Pleasanton

link load. For ACE03 and ACE06, the average seated capacity utilization at the peak link load is 81

and 84 percent, respectively, a few points higher than the average at Fremont/Pleasanton.


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As shown in Table 4, given the different train lengths, average peak link seated capacity utilization

ranges from a high of 84 percent for ACE06 to a low of 36 percent for ACE10. Of course, capacity

utilization is lower on Monday and Friday trains.

Table 4: ACE Ridership by Train, October 2017

Departs

Stockton

Arrives

San Jose

Average

Train

Ridership

(Tues.-

Thurs.)

Average

Fremont/

Pleasanton

Link Load

Average

Peak Link

Load

Seated

Train

Capacity

(train length

in cars)

Average

Seated

Capacity

Utilization*

ACE01 4:20 AM 6:32 AM 766 613 616 798 (6) 77 - 77 %

ACE03

5:35 AM 7:47 AM 959 729 748 919 (7)

79 - 81 %

ACE05 6:40 AM 8:52 AM 883 678 686 919 (7)

74 - 75 %

ACE07 7:05 AM 9:17 AM 521 389 398 656 (5)

59 - 61 %

Departs

San Jose

Arrives

Stockton

ACE04 3:35 PM 5:47 PM 823 581 605 798 (6) 73 - 76 %

ACE06 4:35 PM 6:47 PM 952 767 771 919 (7)

83 - 84 %

ACE08 5:35 PM 7:47 PM 859 710 720 919 (7)

77 - 78 %

ACE10 6:38 PM 8:50 PM 290 234 236 656 (5)

36 - 36 %

Total 6,053

*Average Seated Capacity Utilization at Fremont/Pleasanton (lower %) and at Peak Link (upper %)

The above analysis of existing conditions shows that even the most crowded ACE train still offers

nearly free seated capacity. ACE currently has the capability to increase the 5- and 6-car trains to 7-

car trains, which would address capacity issues on the shorter trains as ridership increases,

particularly on ACE04, the train with the highest average link load still operated as a 6-car train.

Current ACE service is operated with 25 cars. As ridership continues to grow, especially as service

begins on the ACE extensions, train lengths greater than 7 cars will be needed. Platform extensions

to accommodate 8-car and 10-car trains are under development at ACE-controlled stations. The

following sections evaluate future conditions and assess future capacity needs.

2025 Conditions

The travel patterns for the 2025 forecast change from existing conditions, so the ridership forecast

was post-processed for both the No Build and the Valley Rail Project in order to convert the model

output (annual ridership numbers by train and market flow) to an estimated average daily peak link

load. This was done for both scenarios to ensure consistency across the two scenarios and allow

capacity utilization to be compared. As such, the average daily midweek ridership numbers are not

precise estimates of actual daily travel, but are intended to represent an approximate value of how

many riders may travel on a daily basis. The following procedure was applied:

1. Convert the annual market flows by train to average mid-week daily numbers by applying the

following factors, creating a table similar to Table 2 for each train:

a. Annual to Daily factor – 253 days of weekday service per year

b. Mid-week peak factor based on October 2017 ridership – 104 percent of weekly average


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2. Sum up market flows contributing to the peak link load, which is typically between Fremont

and Pleasanton (the dividing line between the Tri-Valley market and the Silicon Valley

markets):

a. Sacramento Extension to/from Silicon Valley

b. Ceres Extension to/from Silicon Valley

c. Stockton-Lathrop-Tracy to/from Silicon Valley

d. Tri Valley to/from Silicon Valley

3. Compare the Valley Rail Project market flows to the No Build market flows and adjust for

consistency.

4. Compare the peak link loads by train and market to the capacity of each train to determine

capacity utilization.

As part of post-processing, the location of the peak links by train for the Valley Rail Project was

checked, as the changing travel patterns may have shifted the peak link further east. For three of the

eight trains traveling on the existing route, the location of the peak link shifted to

Pleasanton/Livermore from Fremont/Pleasanton, where it is currently located. However, the peak

load remained within 4 percent of the Fremont/Pleasanton link.

2025 No Build Capacity Utilization

As shown in Table 2, annual 2025 No Build ridership is expected to reach 1.644 million, or about

6,500 daily riders. To determine capacity utilization in Table 5, the midweek factor of 104 percent is

applied, resulting in the 6,756 daily “midweek” riders. The average Fremont/Pleasanton link load is

calculated as the total trips to/from Silicon Valley. Finally, the average Fremont/Pleasanton peak link

load is divided by the seats provided on each train to yield capacity utilization.

As shown in Table 5, the 2025 No Build peak link load utilization would remain within the seated

capacity of the existing composition of ACE service, with two exceptions. With 7 cars, ACE06 would

approach full capacity (97 percent utilization) – between Fremont and Pleasanton trains would only

Table 5: ACE Capacity Utilization, 2025 No Build

Departs

Stockton

Arrives

San Jose

Average

Train

Ridership

(Tues.-

Thurs.)

Percent

of Daily

Ridership

Average

Fremont/

Pleasanton

Link Load

Seated

Train

Capacity

(train length

in cars)

Seated

Capacity

Utilization at

Fremont/

Pleasanton

Link Load

ACE01 4:20 AM 6:32 AM 780 12% 633 798 (6) 79%

ACE03

5:35 AM 7:47 AM 1,196 18% 947 1,061 (8) 89%

ACE05 6:40 AM 8:52 AM 920 14% 715 919 (7)

78%

ACE07 7:05 AM 9:17 AM 473 7% 368 656 (5)

56%

Departs

San Jose

Arrives

Stockton

ACE04 3:35 PM 5:47 PM 911 13% 706 798 (6) 88%

ACE06 4:35 PM 6:47 PM 1,133 17% 888 1,061 (8) 84%

ACE08 5:35 PM 7:47 PM 1,020 15% 812 919 (7)

88%

ACE10 6:38 PM 8:50 PM 323 5% 258 656 (5)

39%

Total 6,756 100%


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have about 4 empty seats per car. With 7 cars, ACE03 would have about 4 standees per car between

Pleasanton and Fremont. Since the average peak link load will be somewhat greater than the

average Fremont/Pleasanton link load, an additional car would be needed for ACE03 and ACE06 to

ensure all riders have a seat. Only a single additional car would need to be added to the fleet to

operate an 8-car train as ACE03 in the AM and returning as ACE06 in the PM.

2025 Valley Rail Project Capacity Utilization

ACE plans to extend service on the UPRR Sacramento Subdivision from Stockton to Sacramento by

2020, with stations serving Midtown and a terminus at Natomas. By 2023, service is also planned to

extend from Lathrop to Ceres along the UPRR Fresno Subdivision. The preliminary service schedule

reassigns the earliest train of each directional service period (ACE01 and ACE04) as a train operating

directly between Ceres and San Jose, leaving three trains operating between Stockton and San Jose

One of these round trips, the latest morning service (ACE07) and the second afternoon service

(ACE06) would operate between Natomas and San Jose, serving the new Sacramento Subdivision

stations. In addition, three round trips would operate between Ceres and Natomas, which would be

timed to meet the second, third and fourth trains of each directional service period (ACE03, ACE05,

ACE07 and ACE06, ACE08, ACE10) at a new North Lathrop transfer station.

Table 6: 2025 Valley Rail Project, Daily Silicon Valley (Fremont/Pleasanton Link Load) Ridership

A B C D E

Route Segment: Stockton – San Jose

Ceres* – San Jose (direct)

Ceres* – San Jose (transfer)

Sacramento – San Jose

Ceres* – Sacramento

Total

Daily Round Trips: (see notes below)

3 1 ** *** 3½ 7½

AM Train Number(s) 03 05 07 01 03 05 07 07

PM Train Number(s) 06 08 10 04 06 08 10 06

ACE01 – Ceres Ext

361 990

– Existing Route 629

ACE03 934 119 1,053

ACE05 702 150 852

ACE07 361 215 391 967

ACE04 – Ceres Ext

461 1,155

– Existing Route 694

ACE06 793 126 391 1,310

ACE08 885 135 1,020

ACE10 256 124 380

Total 3,931 2,145 869 782 7,727

Notes: * Merced – Ceres Bus connects with each Ceres train

** 3 Ceres – Sacramento trains (Column E) connect with 3 Stockton – San Jose trains (Column A): transfer at North Lathrop *** 1 Stockton – San Jose train (Column A) begins/ends in Sacramento (½) 1 “half train” operates only between Sacramento and Stockton

Using the post-processing procedure detailed above, Table 6 sums the contribution of each route

segment to the Fremont/Pleasanton link load to calculate the total average daily Pleasanton/Fremont

link load for each individual train, broken into the Table 2 route segments. Trips which contribute to

the capacity utilization on the Fremont/Pleasanton link load are those traveling to/from Silicon Valley.


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Each route segment is reviewed below to determine its contribution to capacity utilization at the

Fremont/Pleasanton link load.

A. Stockton – San Jose: Daily midweek ridership between Stockton and San Jose on trains

ACE03, ACE05, ACE07, ACE06, ACE08, and ACE10 would be reduced from 6,756 under

the No Build to 4,921 under the Valley Rail Project, since direct service to/from Stockton

would be reduced from four trains to three, and Stockton riders would have a few minutes of

additional travel time stopping at the new North Lathrop transfer station. Of these riders,

3,931 travel to or from Silicon Valley, contributing to the Fremont/Pleasanton link load. Per

train, the number of Fremont/Pleasanton link load riders ranges from 256 on ACE10 to 934

on ACE03, as shown in Table 6.

Because the Valley Rail Project does not increase Stockton – San Jose ridership at the

existing stations, parking demand at Tracy and stations west of Tracy would not be increased

with the Sacramento and Ceres Extensions. However, the extensions will deliver more riders

to the shuttles serving Pleasanton and Great America, requiring additional shuttle capacity.

The impact of increased ridership on shuttle capacity is analyzed in the ACE Extension

Lathrop to Ceres/Merced Draft EIR.

B. Ceres – San Jose (Direct Service): The market for the direct Ceres to San Jose round trip

(ACE01 and ACE04) is forecast at 2,722 daily midweek riders in 2025, including riders who

use the Merced-Ceres bus connection. Of these riders, 2,145 travel to or from Silicon Valley,

contributing to the Fremont/Pleasanton link load. ACE01 and ACE04 have an average of 990

and 1,155 Fremont/Pleasanton link load riders, respectively, as shown in Table 6.

C. Ceres – San Jose (Transfer Trains): The market for the three Ceres-Natomas trains,

scheduled to meet the three Stockton-San Jose trains for timed transfers, is forecast at 1,138

daily midweek riders in 2025, including riders who use the Merced-Ceres bus connection. Of

these riders, 869 travel to or from Silicon Valley, contributing to the Fremont/Pleasanton link

load. Per train, the number of peak link load riders ranges from 119 on ACE03 to 215 on

ACE07, as shown in Table 6.

D. Sacramento – San Jose: The market of the direct Natomas to San Jose round trip (ACE06

and ACE07) on the Sacramento Extension (excluding the ridership on the existing route,

which is found in Route Segment A) is forecast at 1,187 daily midweek riders in 2025. Of

these riders, 782 travel to or from Silicon Valley, contributing to the Fremont/Pleasanton link

load. The number of Fremont/Pleasanton link load riders is 391 on ACE06 and 391 on

ACE07, as shown in Table 6.

E. Ceres – Sacramento: Riders on the three trains between Ceres and Sacramento who do

not transfer to Stockton-San Jose trains do not contribute to the peak link load, and thus do

not impact the core capacity between Stockton and San Jose.

Table 7 presents 2025 ridership and capacity utilization with the Sacramento and Ceres Extensions.

Only ACE05 and ACE10 would accommodate the Pleasanton/Fremont link load under the 2025

Project (852 and 380 riders, respectively) with the existing train lengths (7 and 5 cars, respectively).

Since crews are not able to reconfigure the trains at the Tamien Layover Facility, the same consists

used for the AM trains must also be used for the PM trains. Also, the train consists serving each AM

origin must match the train consists serving the same PM destination to meet equipment rotation

requirements.


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ACE06 would require a 10-car train to accommodate its 1,310 Fremont/Pleasanton link load

riders, which would utilize 99 percent of seated capacity. Since the ACE06 consist arriving at

Natomas in the PM must match the ACE07 consist departing Natomas in the AM, ACE07

would require 10 cars as well; its 967 Fremont/Pleasanton link load riders would utilize 73

percent of seated capacity.

ACE04 would require a 9-car train to accommodate its 1,155 Fremont/Pleasanton link load

riders, which would utilize 98 percent of seated capacity. Since the ACE01 consist departing

Ceres in the AM must match the ACE04 consist returning to Ceres in the PM, ACE01 would

require 9 cars as well; its 990 Fremont/Pleasanton link load riders would utilize 84 percent of

seated capacity.

ACE03 would require an 8-car train to accommodate its 1,053 Fremont/Pleasanton link load

riders, which would utilize 99 percent of seated capacity. Of the remaining PM trains, ACE08

has the greatest demand and would be assigned an 8-car train as well; its 1,020

Fremont/Pleasanton link load riders would utilize 96 percent of seated capacity.

Finally, ACE05 could continue to be operated with a 7-car consist as it is today; its 852

Fremont/Pleasanton link load riders would utilize 93 percent of seated capacity. However,

two cars would have to be added to ACE10 to balance the AM and PM consist sizes. With 7

cars, the 380 Fremont/Pleasanton link load riders of ACE10 would utilize 41 percent of

seated capacity.

As shown in Table 7, at least 34 cars would be required for the four round trips serving San Jose to

accommodate 2025 Valley Rail Project ridership, 9 additional cars than in existing operations.

However, if the Sacramento Extension is not implemented, ACE06 and ACE07 would not need as

much capacity. The average Fremont/Pleasanton link load would be reduced to 919 and 576,

respectively, and could be operated with an 8-car train. The required number of cars would thus be

reduced to 32.

Table 7: ACE Capacity Utilization, 2025 Valley Rail Project

Departs

Ceresa

Stocktonb

Natomasc

Arrives

San Jose

Average

Train

Ridership

(Tues.-

Thurs.)

Percent

of Daily

Ridership

Average

Fremont/

Pleasanton

Link Load

Seated

Train

Capacity

(train length

in cars)

Seated

Capacity

Utilization at

Fremont/

Pleasanton

Link Load

ACE01 4:17 AMa 6:45 AM 1,229 12% 990 1,182 (9)

84%

ACE03

5:33 AMb 7:45 AM 1,315 13% 1,053 1,061 (8) 99%

ACE05 6:33 AMb 8:45 AM 1,088 11% 852 919 (7)

93%

ACE07 6:19 AMc 9:45 AM 1,356 14% 967 1,324 (10) 73%

Departs

San Jose

Arrives a, b, c

ACE04 3:15 PM 5:43 PMa 1,493 15% 1,155 1,182 (9)

98%

ACE06 4:15 PM 7:41 PMc 1,856 19% 1,310 1,324 (10) 99%

ACE08 5:15 PM 7:27 PMb 1,157 12% 1,020 1,061 (8) 96%

ACE10 6:15 PM 8:27 PMb 474 5% 380 919 (7)

41%

Total 9,968 100%


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Conclusions

The forecasted ridership increases from the implementation of the proposed Sacramento and

Ceres/Merced Extensions will be accommodated by the core capacity expansion (between Stockton

and San Jose) included as part of the Valley Rail Project. ACE is already preparing to expand

capacity by extending platforms to accommodate 8-car and 10-car trains at the stations it operates,

and procuring new locomotives to provide the additional power to push/pull longer trains over

Altamont Pass. Delivery of two new locomotives is expected by 2019, followed by an additional pair in

2020. By deploying longer trains with up to 10 cars, ACE will have sufficient seated capacity to

accommodate 2025 Ceres Extension ridership, as presented in the ACE Extension Lathrop to

Ceres/Merced Draft EIR, as well as 2025 Valley Rail Project ridership.

Table 8: Fleet Requirement and Capacity Utilization Summary, 2017 Actual and 2025 Forecasts

October

2017

2025 No

Build

2025 Project

(Ceres

Extension

only)

2025 Project

(Ceres +

Sacramento

Extensions)

Fleet Requirement for Core

(minimum daily operating cars)

25 26 32 34

Consist Size (Average Seated Capacity Utilization at Fremont/Pleasanton Link Load)

ACE01 6 (77%) 6 (79%) 9 (84%) 9 (84%)

ACE03

7 (79%) 8 (89%) 8 (99%) 8 (99%)

ACE05 7 (74%) 7 (78%) 7 (93%) 7 (93%)

ACE07 5 (59%) 5 (56%) 8 (54%) 10 (73%)

ACE04 6 (73%) 6 (88%) 9 (98%) 9 (98%)

ACE06 7 (83%) 8 (84%) 8 (87%) 10 (99%)

ACE08 7 (77%) 7 (88%) 8 (96%) 8 (96%)

ACE10 5 (36%) 5 (39%) 7 (41%) 7 (41%)

appendix d-1 ace extension core capacity … · the ridership forecasting referred to herein has...

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