applicability of gmpes sshac for complex ruptures: level 3 ...€¦ · chi chi wenchuan el mayor 0...
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SWUS GMC SSHAC
LEVEL 3
Carola Di Alessandro| GeoPentech Project Manager acting as Proponent Expert
Applicability of GMPEs for Complex Ruptures: Proponent Approach based
on NGA-West2 Residuals
SWUS GMC Workshop #2 – Berkeley – 10/22-24/2013
SWUS GMC SSHAC Level 3
OUTLINE
SWUS GMC Workshop #2, Berkeley, 10/22-24/2013
What are the options for accounting variations of dip and rake along strike in GMPEs?
• See Jennifer’s presentation Summarize the available empirical data • Available events in NGA-West2 with recording stations within 20-30 km
from the complex portion of the fault • Plot residuals in a informative way to capture range of available data Is it sufficient to constraint the effect?
• Proponent approach to evaluate effect of local vs average fault geometry: – Use ASK13 and CY13 models – Evaluate GoF plots to quantify effect in a simplified way – Draw conclusions for path forward
SWUS GMC SSHAC Level 3
Available Empirical Data for Complex Ruptures
SWUS GMC Workshop #2, Berkeley, 10/22-24/2013
From WS#1 (Donahue)
Multi-Fault Events Considered:
– Borrego Mt. – San Fernando – Imperial Valley – Superstition Hills – Landers – Kobe – Chi-Chi – Hector Mine – Denali – Wenchuan – El Mayor-Cucapah – Darfield
Not included then due to no appreciable difference in rake/dip: • Kern County • Parkfield • Kocaeli • Duzce • Manjil, Iran
Further constraints: 1. Should show changes in rake and dip (not
only in strike) along the fault 2. Should have recordings within 20-30 km
from the complex portion of the fault 3. Have been selected by modelers to develop
GMPEs
SWUS GMC SSHAC Level 3
Available Empirical Data for Complex Ruptures – Cont’d
SWUS GMC Workshop #2, Berkeley, 10/22-24/2013
Events that can be used are drastically reduced El Mayor-Cucapah Wenchuan Chi-Chi San Fernando Kobe
From WS#1 (Donahue)
SWUS GMC SSHAC Level 3
Available Empirical Data for Complex Ruptures – Residuals
SWUS GMC Workshop #2, Berkeley, 10/22-24/2013
Delta-Rake and Delta-Dip quantification
A
B
For each records, compute difference between fault parameters (rake and dip) for the weighted average and For the closest segment
Segment Length Width Area Rake Dip Strike Ztor
0280a 18.0 12.0 216.0 -90 45 355.0 0.50
0280b 51.0 12.0 612.0 -180 75 312.0 0.57
0280c 66.0 18.0 1188.0 -170 60 311.0 0.51
0280d 9.0 6.0 54.0 -180 50 335.2 0.61
Suggested flatfile
144.0 14.4 2070.0 -164.2 62.8 318.4 0.50
SWUS GMC SSHAC Level 3
Available Empirical Data for Complex Ruptures – Residuals
Histogram of Delta-Rake and Delta-Dip: event contribution
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-75 -50 -30 -20 -10 -5 -2 -1 0 1 2 5 10 20 30 50 75
San Fernando
Kobe
Chi Chi
Wenchuan
El Mayor
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
-36 -16 -8 -4 -2 -1 0 1 2 4 8 16 36
San Fernando
Kobe
ChiChi
Wenchuan
El Mayor
SWUS GMC Workshop #2, Berkeley, 10/22-24/2013
Delta-Rake
Delta-Dip
N. o
f Rec
ordi
ngs
N. o
f Rec
ordi
ngs
-32 32 Labels fixed after Workshop #2
SWUS GMC SSHAC Level 3
0.2-sec and 1.0-sec Residuals vs. Delta-Dip and Delta-Rake
Chi Chi – ASK13 W2 GMPE
SWUS GMC Workshop #2, Berkeley, 10/22-24/2013
Intra-event residuals on HW Intra-event residuals
SWUS GMC SSHAC Level 3
0.2-sec and 1.0-sec Residuals vs. Delta-Dip and Delta-Rake
Chi Chi – CY13 W2 GMPE
SWUS GMC Workshop #2, Berkeley, 10/22-24/2013
Intra-event residuals on HW Intra-event residuals
SWUS GMC SSHAC Level 3
0.2-sec and 1.0-sec Residuals vs. Delta-Dip and Delta-Rake
Chi Chi – CB13 W2 GMPE
SWUS GMC Workshop #2, Berkeley, 10/22-24/2013
Intra-event residuals on HW Intra-event residuals
SWUS GMC SSHAC Level 3
0.2-sec and 1.0-sec Residuals vs. Delta-Dip and Delta-Rake
Chi Chi – BSSA13 W2 GMPE
SWUS GMC Workshop #2, Berkeley, 10/22-24/2013
Intra-event residuals on HW Intra-event residuals
SWUS GMC SSHAC Level 3
0.2-sec and 1.0-sec Residuals vs. Delta-Dip and Delta-Rake
El Mayor Cucapah– ASK13 W2 GMPE
SWUS GMC Workshop #2, Berkeley, 10/22-24/2013
Intra-event residuals on HW Intra-event residuals
0.2 sec 1.0 sec
SWUS GMC SSHAC Level 3
0.2-sec and 1.0-sec Residuals vs. Delta-Dip and Delta-Rake
El Mayor Cucapah– ASK13 W2 GMPE
SWUS GMC Workshop #2, Berkeley, 10/22-24/2013
0.2 s
1.0 s
SWUS GMC SSHAC Level 3
0.2-sec and 1.0-sec Residuals vs. Delta-Dip and Delta-Rake
El Mayor Cucapah– CY13 W2 GMPE
SWUS GMC Workshop #2, Berkeley, 10/22-24/2013
0.2 s
1.0 s
SWUS GMC SSHAC Level 3
0.2-sec and 1.0-sec Residuals vs. Delta-Dip and Delta-Rake
El Mayor Cucapah– CB13 W2 GMPE
SWUS GMC Workshop #2, Berkeley, 10/22-24/2013
0.2 s
1.0 s
SWUS GMC SSHAC Level 3
0.2-sec and 1.0-sec Residuals vs. Delta-Dip and Delta-Rake
El Mayor Cucapah– BSSA13 W2 GMPE
SWUS GMC Workshop #2, Berkeley, 10/22-24/2013
0.2 s
1.0 s
SWUS GMC SSHAC Level 3
Proponent Evaluation Method for Complex Ruptures
SWUS GMC Workshop #2, Berkeley, 10/22-24/2013
Suggested evaluation method: which approach has better agreement with available observations?
PSA computation (ASK13 and CY13 GMPE)
using local or average fault parameters
Evaluation of ratio among the PSA using the two approaches
Suggested evaluation method: which approach has better agreement with available observations? - CONTD
Adjustment of intra-event residuals obtained using local parameters to account for the ratio
SWUS GMC SSHAC Level 3
Proponent Evaluation Method for Complex Ruptures
SWUS GMC Workshop #2, Berkeley, 10/22-24/2013
Suggested evaluation method: which approach has better agreement with available observations? - CONTD
Evaluation of mean residuals using the two approaches
– Standard deviation and 90% confidence interval are also computed (not shown here)
SWUS GMC SSHAC Level 3
Proponent Evaluation Method for Complex Ruptures
SWUS GMC Workshop #2, Berkeley, 10/22-24/2013
SWUS GMC SSHAC Level 3
Proponent Evaluation Method for Complex Ruptures:
Results using ASK13 and CY13
SWUS GMC Workshop #2, Berkeley, 10/22-24/2013
CY13
ASK13
El Mayor Cucapah
HW Presence Changes in Rake Changes in Dip Changes in SoF 4 11 (-74 to 16) 11 (-12 to 18) 3 (1 in BSSA)
SWUS GMC SSHAC Level 3
Proponent Evaluation Method for Complex Ruptures:
Results using ASK13 and CY13
SWUS GMC Workshop #2, Berkeley, 10/22-24/2013
CY13
ASK13
Wenchuan
HW Presence Changes in Rake Changes in Dip 5 (6 in BSSA) 10 (-27 to 28) 10 (-15 to 15)
SWUS GMC SSHAC Level 3
Proponent Evaluation Method for Complex Ruptures:
Results using ASK13 and CY13
SWUS GMC Workshop #2, Berkeley, 10/22-24/2013
CY13
ASK13
ChiChi
HW Presence Changes in Rake Changes in Dip 12 0 65 (-12 to 5)
SWUS GMC SSHAC Level 3
SWUS GMC Workshop #2, Berkeley, 10/22-24/2013
Multi-Fault Ruptures: Evaluation Results Summary
Mean of the GOF for all the events
ASK13 CY13
Multi-Fault Ruptures: Evaluation Results Conclusions
• Bias plots:
– Using closest segment seems to lead to better agreement with observations in the close-in region for ASK13
– No significant effect for CY13
• Period dependency?
– Residuals are better centered at short periods using closest segment for ASK13
• What future work can be done?
– Evaluate the effect for BSSA13 and CB13 to look for systematic results
– Augment empirical data with simulations to constraint the evaluation (does it matter?)
SWUS GMC SSHAC Level 3
SWUS GMC Workshop #2, Berkeley, 10/22-24/2013
References •Abrahamson, N. A., W. J. Silva, and R. Kamai (2014). Update of the AS08 Ground-Motion Prediction Equations Based on the NGA-West2 Data Set, Earthquake Spectra, (in press). •Boore, D. M., J. P. Stewart, E. Seyhan, and G. M. Atkinson (2014). NGA-West2 Equations for Predicting Response Spectral Accelerations for Shallow Crustal Earthquakes, Earthquake Spectra, (in press). •Campbell, K. W. and Y. Bozorgnia (2014). NGA-West2 Campbell-Bozorgnia Ground Motion Model for the Horizontal Components of PGA, PGV, and 5%-Damped Elastic Pseudo-Acceleration Response Spectra for Periods Ranging from 0.01 to 10 sec, Earthquake Spectra, (in press). •Chiou, B-S.J. and R. R. Youngs (2014). Update of the Chiou and Youngs NGA Ground Motion Model for Average Horizontal Component of Peak Ground Motion and Response Spectra, Earthquake Spectra, (in press). •Di Alessandro, C. and Abrahamson, A. (2013). Ground motion for complex multi-fracture. Proceedings of IASPEI General Assembly, Goteborg July 2013 – paper S201bS1.04 •Donahue, J (2013).Data to Constrain GMPEs in Critical Ranges –Multi-Fault Ruptures, Presentation to SWUS GMC Workshop #1