Application of risk assessment to access agricultural markets

Example: Madagascar

Katharina StärkSwiss Federal Veterinary Office

Outline

• Trade principles under SPS

• Example Madagascar– Pig production Madagascar– Disease status– Risk assessment applied in this situation?

• Hypothetical

Trade under SPS rules

• Exporting country– Scientific evidence to document that

imported goods do not impose larger health risk for local animal/human/plant population than product produced in importing country

• Aim of risk analysis– Provide importing country with objective and

defensible method to assess risk

Pig population Madagascar

Figure 3: Development of pig population in Madagascar (Sources MPE & DVS)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1905 1927 1951 1964 1975 1988 1997 1998

Year

Po

pu

lati

on

in 1

00

0

1942 introduction of Teschen disease

1953 start vaccination

1965 introduction of CSF, 1967 startvaccination

Pork production

• Mainly extensive, few specialised farmers

Introduction of ASF

• Suspect cases in early 1998

• Diagnosis December 1998

• FAO TCP started in 1999– Diagnostic tools– Epidemiology– Surveillance– Control

Current disease situation

Distribution (approx.) des suidés sauvages (Potamochoerus larvatus )

Zones indemnes de PPA (30/04/00)

Tiques Ornithodoros porcinus (aire de distribution décrite entre 1960 et 1990)Tiques (aire connue 1960 –1990) & suidés sauvages

Peste Porcine Africaine :

SITUATIONEPIDEMIOLOGIQUE

Avril 2000

Séroloies positives anticorps anti-tiques

Risk through trade?

• Pork?

• Beef?

• Other animal-derived products?

Trade prior to 1999

• Pork to La Reunion (until 1988)

• Beef to European Union (until 1995)– lack of surveillance– lack of controls– lack of good veterinary services

Disease surveillance

• Reporting of signs of disease activity by livestock owners and veterinarians

• Active programme of examination of samples from within host populations to detect clinical signs or indications of disease occurrence

OIE Animal Health Code 1999

Poste d‘observation in place

Potential for development

Quality of veterinary services

• Bilateral between countries– mutual agreement on criteria

• Criteria – appropriate to circumstances– relevant to type of trade

OIE Animal Health Code 1999

Concept of zoning

• Zone = part of country established for disease control

• Requirements• Notifiable disease• According to epidemiology of disease• Effective boundaries• Constant supervision (movement control)• Effective veterinary service

OIE Animal Health Code 1999

Disease-free zone

• Can be established if infection is still present• All animal holdings officially known• Investigation of suspect outbreaks• Outbreaks reported to OIE• Can be surrounded by surveillance zone• Strict animal movement control• Independent of import of animals from

infected zonesOIE Animal Health Code 1999

ASF-free zones

• Notifiable disease• Effective borders• Control / Surveillance of

– Domestic pigs– Bush pigs (Potamochoerus larvatus )– Ticks (Ornithodoros porcinus spp)– Animal movements

• Additional safety measures– Export from ASF-free herds

Possible ASF-free zones

Peste Porcine Africaine :

SITUATIONEPIDEMIOLOGIQUE

Avril 2000

List of holdingsMovement controlIdentification of animals

ASF-free farms

• Re-stocking with ASF-free stock• Isolation• Biosafety measures

– Animals, bush pigs, tick control– People– Feed

• Surveillance programme• Identification

Risk assessment

• The OIE risk assessment model– Disease factors– Disease status of exporting country (country

factors)• Surveillance• Disease-free zones• Veterinary service

– Products (commodity factors)• Quantity• Effect of processing

OIE Animal Health Code 1999

Risk model: What can go wrong?

ASF-free region

ASF-free herd

Yes

No

OK

OK

Processing

- Surveillance- Barriers- Identification

OK

P(export)

Countries with (sporadic) reported ASF cases in 1998 or later

19991999

ASF status

Tanzania

2000

Conclusions

• Basis for risk assessment– Good veterinary service– Surveillance data

• Large flexibility

• Qualitative assessment sufficient

• Powerful tool for all countries