University of Mary Washington

BUAD 259, Fall 2014: Project Proposal

Brandon Attiliis

Section 03

”I pledge on my honor that I have not given nor received any unauthorized assistance on this exam/assignment.”

I will be doing my research project on what affects the average attendance for NFL

Teams. I have always wondered what effects how packed a NFL stadium will get each

week. This is important not only to practitioners and researchers, but also to the owners

of each team, and almost everyone that works for that franchise. This matters to

practitioners and researchers because the attendance is what brings in the most money to

a franchise and knowing ways to increase the attendance will increase the revenue. This

research also shows how dedicated the fans of each team are. If the attendance is high,

the team receives more money in which they can buy better equipment, hire better

coaches and managers, and get better players to come play for their team. A team’s

average attendance is not only important to researchers, but also to the entire sports

world. This research fits in to this body of work because it is the most important factor

that brings in the money to a franchise. Without the attendance, we wouldn’t even have

football!

My first hypothesis is; Teams that have won 3 Super Bowls or more have a higher

average attendance rate than teams that have not won 3 or more Super Bowls. H0: Super

Bowl wins =3. Ha: Super Bowl wins < 3. The teams that have had the most Super Bowl

wins over time, one would think that they should have average attendance rates that

compare with how great of a season that they had. This hypothesis might not be true

because for example, the San Francisco 49ers are tied for second with 5 Super Bowl rings

but also have one of the worst attendance rates in the history of the NFL. This year, San

Francisco is in dead last place having the lowest average attendance rate. On the other

hand, the Washington Redskins are tied in third place with three Super Bowl wins and

have the second highest average attendance rate this year thus far.

My second hypothesis is; A team’s average attendance rate will be higher if the city

that the franchise is located in, has a higher income per capita than 28,171. H0: Income

per capita = 28,171. Ha: Income per capita < 28,171. If a franchise is located in a heavily

populated place like for example, New York City, they are more likely to have a lot more

people willing to pay for these high priced tickets. The more people in the city, the higher

the income per capita is in most cases. On the other side of that statement, there could be

very loyal fan bases in lower income places as well. I will be able to determine this

hypothesis after my tests are completed. Also, the higher income per capita in a particular

city, the more advertising and marketing a franchise can do. Cities with high incomes can

do a lot more to bring the fans to the games. A cities income per capita is very important

to a franchise.

My third hypothesis is; A team’s average attendance rate will be higher if the

average ticket price is $72.12 or higher per ticket. H0: Average ticket price > $72.12. Ha:

Average ticket price < $72.12. If a franchise’s average ticket price is low, fans are likely

to be willing to pay the not as high prices to see a game but on the other hand, most of the

franchises with low ticket prices don’t do well and that is why the tickets are so cheap.

For example, the Arizona Cardinals are having the season of the century, ticket prices are

amongst the lowest in the NFL, but they still have one of the lowest average attendance

rates. Another example is the New England Patriots franchise. The Patriots have had a

winning record (at least above 500%) every year since 2001 and also have the 2nd

highest ticket prices due to this, but even with those high prices, they still regularly sell

out each week.The better the team does, the higher the attendance is, which brings the

ticket prices up. This is not only in football, but in a lot of things we encounter in every

day life. SUPPLY AND DEMAND. The more 7/11 sells candy bars, the higher the price

of those candy bars will be. If a franchise sells tickets at a high price and are still having

great ticket sales, why would they make them lower if people are willing to pay. It is

common sense and we shall see if this hypothesis is correct.

My fourth hypothesis is; The average attendance rate will be higher if the team is

ranked in the top 10 teams in the NFL. H0: Team rank < 10. Ha: Team rank not < 10.

This hypothesis should be able to show the comparison to the most elite teams in the NFL

compared to whether or not they have a good attendance rate. This will show the

attendance rate and I believe that the top 10 teams in the NFL should be close to the top

10 best average attendance rates. This hypothesis is somewhat simple but should show a

lot because of the comparison that it makes.

There are several variables in the dataset that I will generate in order to find out if

my hypothesis’ are correct or not. My dependent variable is average attendance. The five

independent variables that I will test are a team’s rank, the cities income per capita in

which a franchise is based out of, the amount of Super Bowl rings a franchise has, what

division they are in, and the ticket price. My categorical variables are the the income per

capita and ticket price. These are categorical because I will be creating two groups, one

that is yes and one that is no rather than testing multiple numbers. My quantitative

variables are the Super Bowl wins, the team rank. My sampling method will be simple

random sampling because I am testing the attendance of NFL teams. I will have to find

out all of these variables in each of the 32 teams and create lists for each variable. For

income per capita, I will have to base that on two different groups, groups that exceed

28,171 and those who do not. For ticket price, I will show whether the tickets are above

$250 or not. For Super Bowl wins, I will test whether or not a franchise has above or

below 3 Super Bowl wins. For the team rank, I will test whether or not a team is in the

top 16 teams in the NFL. The population that I will be testing is the whole NFL and my

sample are the individual teams that will be tested.

In order to test the data for my hypotheses, I will use several statistical tests to

prove or disprove my hypotheses. For my first hypothesis test, I will use a 2-tailed

hypothesis test. For my second, I will use 1-tailed hypothesis test. For my third

hypothesis, I will use a 2-tailed hypothesis test and for my last hypothesis, I will be using

a 1-tailed hypothesis test. These tests will help me implement my data into the

hypotheses that I am testing. The size of the sample that I am hoping to collect is average

size and I think that it will be due to some teams not being chosen and some teams being

chosen. I am very interested to see how my project plays out.

Works Cited

"NFL Tickets: Team by Team Average Prices." TiqIQ Blog Your Live Event Connection RSS.

"Top 5 Most Expensive NFL Stadiums." 5 Most Expensive NFL Stadiums.

ESPN.com