apresentacao hsbc latin american investment summit ingles
TRANSCRIPT
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April,2013
PETROBRAS
AT A GLANCE
HSBC Latin American
Investment Summit
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DISCLAIMER
The presentation may contain forward-looking statements We undertake no obligation to publicly update or
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E
of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, thatare not based on historical facts and are not assurances offuture results. Such forward-looking statements merelyreflect the Companys current views and estimates of
revise any forward-looking statements, whether asa result of new information or future events or forany other reason. Figures for 2013 on areestimates or targets.
u ure econom c c rcums ances, n us ry con ons,company performance and financial results. Such termsas "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend","plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or
analogous expressions, are used to identify such forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that these
All forward-looking statements are expresslyqualified in their entirety by this cautionarystatement, and you should not place reliance onany forward-looking statement contained in thispresentation.
statements are only projections and may differ materiallyfrom actual future results or events. Readers are referredto the documents filed by the Company with the SEC,specifically the Companys most recent Annual Report onForm 20-F, which identify important risk factors that couldcause actual results to differ from those contained in the
NON-SEC COMPLIANT OIL AND GAS RESERVES:
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS
We present certain data in this presentation, such
forward-looking statements, including, among otherthings, risks relating to general economic and businessconditions, including crude oil and other commodityprices, refining margins and prevailing exchange rates,uncertainties inherent in making estimates of our oil and
as reserves includin recentl discovered oil and as
,
to present in documents filed with the UnitedStates Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)under new Subpart 1200 to Regulation S-K becausesuch terms do not qualify as proved, probable orpossible reserves under Rule 4-10(a) of Regulation
reserves, international and Brazilian political, economicand social developments, receipt of governmental
approvals and licenses and our ability to obtain financing.
- .
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Petrobras TodayFully integrated across the hydrocarbon chain
Ex lorationand
2.4 mm boed production
Production
12 refineries (Brazil)
2.0 mm bpd refining capacity
ownstream
7,641 service stations
38,1% of market share
Distribution
9,190 km of gas pipelines in
Brazil
Gasan Power
24 countries
0.7 Bn boe of 1P (SPE)
International
3 Biodiesel Plants
Ethanol: opening new markets
Biofuels
96% of Brazilian production
34% of global DW and UDW
production
Oil products sales in Brazil:
2,285 Kbpd
Oil products output in Brazil:
1,997 Kbpd
20% share of service stations.
3 LNG Regasification
terminals by 2013 with 41
MMm/d capacity
7,028 MW of generation
243 th. boed production
231 th. bpd refining capacity
Largest domestic producer of
biodiesel
3rd producer of ethanol in
Brazil
2012ProvenReserves(SPECriteria) BrazilAdjustedEBITDAperSegment(US$bn)(1)
3.03,2
Onshore8%
Shallow Water(0-300m)
8%
. on oe
43.4 42,211
4.10.9
1.4
3.62,0
1.1
1.3
.1.6
1.1
2.1
Deep Water(300-1,500m)
48%
Ultra-Deep Water
19.330.6
6.9
15,0> , m
36%
(1)ExcludesCorporateandElimination (2)Adjustedaccordingtoaverageexchangerate (3)IFRSUSD 3
2009 2010 2011(3) (3)(2) 2012
E&P RTM G&P Distribution International
(3)
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OwnershipBroad distribution: government, Brazilian and foreign shareholders
19%
ForeignShareholders
Non-Voting
35%
16%
Brazilian
Government
Non-Voting
Voting
47%
12%
6%
12%
18%
Brazilian Non-GovtShareholders
Non-Voting
Voting
Brazilian government, by law, must maintain control. Does so with 61% of voting shares.
*Includes:FederalGovernment,BNDES,BNDESPAR,Sov.WealthFund
, , .
2000: ADRs listing on NYSE (PBR and PBR/A)
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Relative PositionRanked among the leading integrated energy companies
16.8
3.23.3
4.2
25.2
13.3 12.3
11.3 10.8 8.66.8
5.2
2.6 2.6 2.31.7 1.6
0.6
Exxon BP Shell BR Chevron Total Conoco ENI StatoilGas Oil
MarketCa US$bn March29th,20132012Refinin Ca acit mmboe d
Exxon BP Shell Chevron BR Total ENI Conoco BG
Gs Oil
3.7
5.5 404
1.92.12.3
2.22.9
0.90.3
231 209
73
114 112134
7782
Note: Peer companies selected above have a majorit y of capital traded in the public market.
Source: Evaluate Energy (barrels per calendar day, considering company % shareholding and includ ing JVs) and Bloomberg
5Note: Peer companies selected above have a majority of capital traded in the publ ic market.
Exxon Shell BP BR Conoco Total Chevron ENI Statoil EXXON CHEVRON SHELL BP TOTAL BR ENI STATOIL CONOCO
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Competitive AdvantagesUniquely positioned to integrate upstream and downstream operations
Abundantreserves300km
awayfromthemarket
13
Leaderindeepwaterproduction,withaccesstoabundantoilreserves
Dominantpositioningrowingmarket,farfromotherrefiningcenters
Fullydevelopedinfrastructureforprocessingandtransfporting
as
Exploration & Production Downstream Gas & Power/ Biofuels/Petrochemicals
Newexploratoryfrontier,adjacent
to
existing
operations
Balanceandintegrationbetweenproduction,refininganddemand
IntegrationaccrossfullenergyandhydrocarbonchaininBrazil
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2013-17 Business and Management Plan Fundamentals
PRIORITY
PERFORMANCE
DISCIPLINE
Priority for
FinanciabilityAssumptions
focused on
reaching
physical andfinancial tar ets
Guarantee theexpansion ofthe business
with solid
oil andnatural gas
exploration &production
maintenance
No new equity issuance
of each project
financialindicators
projects inBrazil
International Prices (OilProducts)
Divestments in Brazil and,,
7
2013 2017
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2013-2017 BMP InvestmentsApproved by Petrobras Board of Directors in 03/15/13
2013-2017 PeriodUS$ 236.7 Billion Financiability Assumptions
Investment Grade Rating maintenance:
Leverage lower than 35%28%27.4% Net Debt/EBITDA lower than 2.5x
No new equity issuance
E&P62.3%
(US$ 147.5 bi)
(US$ 64.8 bi)
4.2%
(US$ 9.9 bi)
Products)
Divestments in Brazil and, mainly, abroad1.1%(US$ 2.9 bi)
.(US$ 5.1 bi)
1.0%(US$ 2.3 bi)
1.4%(US$ 3.2 bi)
0.4%(US$ 1.0 bi)
8* Pbio = Petrobras Biofuel ETM = Engineering, Technology and Materials Other Areas = Financial, Strategy and Corporate
International ETM* Other Areas*Pbio*E&P DistribuitionDownstream G&E
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2013-2017 BMP InvestmentsImplementation x Evaluation
+=Total
All E&P projects in Brazil and projects of theremaining segments in phase IV
Projects for the remaining segments,excluding E&P, currently in phase I, II and III.
. ..770 projects 177 projects947 projects
1.0%
(US$ 0.3 Billion)6.1%
.
(US$ 147.5 Billion) 27.4%
(US$ 64.8 Billion)
.
(US$ 147.5 Billion) 20.9%
(US$ 43.2 Billion)
2.9%US$ 5.9 Billion
13.5%
(US$ 4.0 Billion)
6.4%
(US$ 1.9 Billion)
.
2.2%
(US$ 5.1 Billion)
4.2%
(US$ 9.9 Billion)0.5%
(US$ 1.1 Billion)
1.5%
(US$ 3.2 Billion)
1.0%
(US$ 2.3 Billion)
1.4%
(US$ 3.2 Billion)
.
(US$ 2.9 Billion)
0.4%
(US$ 1.0 Billion)
1.1%
(US$ 2.3 Billion)
1.4%(US$ 2.9 Billion)
0.5%
(US$ 1.0 Bililon)
73.0%(US$ 21.6 Billion)
9Phase I: Opportunity Identification; Phase II: Conceptual Project; Phase III: Basic Project ; Phase IV: Execution
* Pbio = Petrobras Biofuel ETM = Engineering, Technology and Materials Other Areas = Financial, Strategy and Corporate
International ETM* Other Areas*Pbio*E&P DistribuitionDownstream G&E
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2013-2017 Business and Management Plan :Project Portfolio Management
INVESTMENTS UNDER IMPLEMENTATION
US$ 147.5 Billion US$ 43.2 Billion US$ 5.9 Billion US$ 3.2 Billion US$ 2.9 Billion US$ 1.1 Billion
Implementation ofProjects under
Evaluations contingent
E&P Downstream Gas & Energy International Distribution Biofuels
US$ on:
Results of Technical-
Economical Feasibility
. i
Availability of Resources
(financiability);
US$29.6 bi*
resources.-
E&PUS$ 21.6 BillionDownstream
US$ 4.0 BillionGas & Energy
US$ 1.9 BillionInternational
US$ 0.3 BillionDistribution
US$ 1.8 BillionBiofuels
10
* US$ 207.1 Billion include ETM (US$ 2,3 bi) and Other Areas (US$ 1,0 bi) investments
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Programs to Support the 2013-2017 BMP
2013-2017 BMP
US$ 236.7 Billion
PRC-PooProgram to
Program toIncrease
Operational
PROCOP
Operating Costs
Reduce Well Costs
UO-BCUO-RIO
Program
INFRALOG Logistic Infrastructure Optimization ProgramPRODESIN Divestment Program
Petrobras Local Content Management Take advantage of the industrys capacity to maximize gains to Petrobras
11
PROCOP: Focus on OPEX, operating costs of the Company activities Manageable Operating Costs.
PRC-Poo: Focus on CAPEX dedicated to Wells construction Investments in Drilling and Completion.
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PROCOP: Optimization of the Operational Activities IncreasingProductivity and Reducing Unit Costs
Benefits will come gradually and will lead to a total economy of R 32 Billion by 2016.
Initiatives Example
Annual Reduction Targets
chemicals and fuels; Productive drilling rig days;
Maritime and air transportation; Onshore well
interventions;
4 79
12owns ream: onsump on o c em ca s an
catalyzers; Residual production; Scheduled
Stoppages routine; excessive lay day at ports; Fleet
use; Delivery Schedule;osts
ranspe ro: Intervention in vessels, terminals, oiland gas pipelines, and tanks;
Gas & Energy: NG consumption to produceammonia; Operating cost for the gas pipelineM
anageable
R$Billion
network;
Engineering, Technology and Materials:Supply and inventories of materials; IT costs per
12
Corporate e Services: Expenditures with
buildings, trips and transportation; HSEmanagement.
* Expenditures for industrial, administrative and support installations
Annual Reduction provided by PROCOP
Evolution of Manageable Costs
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PRC-Poo: Program to Reduce Well CostsWell Construction is a Relevant Portion in Investments
Other Areas 89.2
236.7
147.5
24.3
Infra-structure and Support16.3
Exploration
Development Well Investments
total US$ 75 billion
E&P 147.5
106.9 Production Development
2013-2017 BMPInvestments
Brazil E&PInvestments
Petrobras currently has 69 floating drilling rigs for well construction and maintenance in Brazil
Well construction represents:
32% of Petrobras investments in 2013-2017 BMP
13
51% of Brazil E&P Investments
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Exploration & Production
2013-2017 PeriodUS$ 147.5 Billion
16%(24.3)
73%
(106.9)
(16.3)
Infrastructure and Support
Exploration
Production Development
1414
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E&P Investments
2013-2017 Period
ro uc on eve opmen
US$ 106.9 BillionUS$ 24.3 Billion
25%(26.2)
6%(1.4)
(46.4)
32%(34.3)
70%(17.1)
(5.8)
Post-Salt
Pre-Salt
Transfer of Ri hts
15
Aside from Exploration and Production Development, E&P infrastructure investments total US$ 16.3 Billion.
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Exploratory Success and Increase in ReservesMore than 3 Discoveries per month between January/2012 and February/2013
53 discoveries in the last 14 months (Jan/12 Feb/13), from which 25 were offshore (15 in Pre-salt)
Brazil Discoveries: 53
Offshore: 25
Onshore: 28
Exploratory Success Ratio: 64% Reserves: 15.7 Billion boe
RRR: 103% for the 21st consecutive year
R/P: 19.3 years
Pre-Salt
16 RRI: Reserves Replacement Ratio R/P: Reserve / Production
Discoveries: 15, of which 8 pioneers
Exploratory Success Ratio: 82%
Reserves: 300 km in the SE region, 55% of GDP16
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Reserves and Recoverable VolumesRapid growth in reserves from discoveries in deep waters
Deep/UltraDeepWaterPhaseOnshorePhase ShallowWaterPhase
Proved Reserves SPEcriteria
25000
30000
15.73biboePreSalt:Sapinho
20000
Roncador
ParkofWhales,Mexilho
PreSalt:Lula&Cernambi
Million
Boe
10000Garoupa
Marlim
Guaricema
0
5000 Carmpolis
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Onshore 0300m 300
1500m >
1500m
*Lula/Cernambi,Iara,SapinhoandWhalesPark,rangingfrom6.7to7.9Billionboe
Presalts Recovery
Volume* Transfer of Rights
17
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Production Curve in Brazil Oil and LNG
Post-Salt, Pre-Salt and Transfer of Rights
2014
Roncador IV(P-62)
Sapinho Norte
2016
Lula Alto
Lula Central
Lula Sul
2012
Baleia Azul(Cid. Anchieta)
2013
Sapinho Pilot(Cid. So Paulo)
Bana
2015
Iracema Norte(Cid. Itagua)
2017
Lula Ext. Sul(P-68)
Lula Oeste
2020
Espadarte III
Florim
2019
Jpiter
Bonito
Franco Leste
2018NE de Tupi(P-72)
Iara NW(P-71)
bpd
. a e a
Iracema Sul
(Cid.Mangaratiba)
(P-66)
Franco 1(P-74)
Carioca
Lula Norte
.
Lula NE Pilot
(Cid. Paraty)Papa-Terra(P-63)
Roncador III
-
Franco Sul
(P-76)Tartaruga Verdee Mestia
Iara Horst 4,200
Deep WatersSergipe
Sul Pq. Baleias
Maromba
Espadarte I
19%
6%
Thousands -
Franco SW(P-75)
(P-55)
Norte Pq.Baleias (P-58)
Papa-Terra(P-61)
(P-70)
Parque dosDoces
Franco NW(P-77)
Carcar
Entorno de Iara(P-73)
5% 7%
30% 35%
31%1%
7%
2,022
2,500 ,
2,0221,980
( 2%)
95% 93% 69%58%
44%4-6% p.y. Growth
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Post-salt Pre-salt (Concession) Transfer of Rights New Discoveries*
(*) Includes new opportunities in blocks where discoveries have already been found 18
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NEWPRODUCTIONUNITS 20132014Newplatformsbuiltdomesticallyandabroadwillcontributetoproduction
Project Capacity 1st Oil HullTop Side /Integration
oca on en
BidRound
Commit. Target
Sapinho Pilot120 kbpd 01/05/2013
Cosco Shipyard Schahin/Modec2 30% 65%
.
Bana and PiracabaFPSO Cid. Itaja 80 kbpd 02/16/2013
JurongCingapura
Odebrecht and TeekayCingapura 5 60% 81%
Lula NE PilotFPSO Cid. Parat
120 kbpd 05/28/2013Keppel Shipyard
Cin a uraQGOG/SBM
Brasfels2 30% 65%
Papa-TerraP-63
140 kbpd 07/15/2013Cosco Shipyard
ChinaQuip
Rio Grande0 0% 65%
Roncador Module IIIP-55
180 kbpd 09/30/2013 EASBrasil
QuipRio Grande
0 0% 65%
Parque das BaleiasP-58
180 kbpd 11/30/2013Queirz Galvo
Rio GrandeQueirz Galvo
Rio Grande0 0% 63%
Papa-TerraP-61
TLWP loadout to P-63
12/31/2013FloatecBrasfels
FloatecBrasfels
0 0% 65%
Roncador Module IVP-62
180 kbpd Mar/2014 Camargo Corra/IESAEAS
Camargo Corra/IESAEAS
0 0% 63%
Sapinho NorteFPSO Cid. Ilhabela
150 kbpd Sep/2014QGOG/SBM
ChinaQGOG/SBMSBM/BRASA
2 30% 65%
Lula - Iracema SulFPSO Cid. Mangaratiba
150 kbpd Nov/2014Cosco Shipyard
ChinaNot define 2 30% 65%
*Note:FPSOCid.XX=Leased/PXX=Owned 19
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OPERATIONALEFFICIENCYPROEF ProgramtorecoverandmaintainoperationalefficiencyinCamposBasin
ImproveOperationalUnit
EfficiencyLevels
Improveproduction
systemsintegrityPROEF
UO-BC
Increasethereliabilitytodeliver
roduction tar ets of BP 201216
UO-RIOReachSustainableLevelsof
OperationalEfficiency
ReduceRiskofLossof
OperationalEfficiency
Operational Efficiency - E&P Operational Efficiency - UO-BC Operational Efficiency - Without UO-BC Operational Efficiency - UO-RIO
E&P Recent Operational Efficiency (%)
PROEF Targets
9294
95
94 939696
93
93 94 94 94
90
95
100
90 8785
88
80
76
81
88 90
75
80
85
71 72
65
70
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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E&P Distribution of RevenuesStable concession terms have led to higher income per barrel
Breakdown
of
realization
rice
er
boe
roduced
in
Brazil
% shareof realization price120
US$/boe realization price US$/boe realization price
25%31% 33% 31%
80%
100%
79
100
13%
23%21% 21% 21%
60%
$20 $20
$22
$31 $30
62
60
80
17%
22%18% 16% 17%
17%
20%
$11 $12$14 $16
$7$11
$16$15
$12
$15
20
40
0%
2009 2010 2011 2012$9
$10 $13 14
0
2009 2010 2011 2012
22
Lifting Cost Exploratory costs + DD&A + Others Income Tax Production Tax Net Income
*Othersincludetaxexpenses,R&D,SG&A
Brent
22
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E&PPROFITABILITYProductionofoil,notgas,generateshighrealizationprice
30
35
15
20
25
5
10
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Peers Petrobras
*
ProductioninBrazilhighlyconcentratedinoil:86%oiland14%gas
Stableregulatoryenvironmentallowsforcapturingthebenefitsoftheincreaseinoilprices
Peers:BP,CVX,XOM,RDS,TOT *Petrobras PreliminarySource:EvaluateEnergy
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PROFITABILITY
New E&P projects will continue to generate attractive returns
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
KeyAssumptions:
25.00%
30.00%
. ,
Productionof500MMbarrels
Rampup inlinewithindustry
Historic decline rate
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
Oilvalue=95%Brent
Doesnotincludeexplorationand
acquisitioncosts
.00%
5.00%
60 70 80 90 100 110
ex ected scenario
US$/bbl
Case3 US$12/boeCapex/US$5/boeOpexwithoutSpecialInterest(suchasTransferofRights)
Case2 US$15/boeCapex/US$7/boeOpex
The graph illustrates the costbenefit ratio of a standard production development in Brazil, using
assumptions based on previous experiences
24
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Pre-Salt Production is a RealityProduction reached 300 thousand barrels of oil per day in Feb/20/2013
- Oil Production reached 300 kbpd (of which 249 kbpd
is Petrobras stake), 43% in Santos Basin and 57% inCampos Basin;
High Resolution Seismic: higher exploratory
success
This level was reached with only 17 producing wells, 6
in Santos Basin and 11 in Campos Basin; Level reached only 7 years after discovery:
Geological and numerical modelling: better
production behaviour forecast
ampos as n: years
US Gulf of Mexico: 17 years
North Sea: 9 years
Production of 1 million b d o erated b Petrobras will
e uct on o we construct on t me rom
days in 2006 to 70 day in 2012: lower costs
Selection of new materials: lower costs
be reached by 2017 and the 2.1 million bpd thresholdwill be reached by 2020.
Petrobras Pre-salt productions share: from 5% in
Qualification of new systems for production
gathering: higher competitiveness
. . . .
Separation of CO2 from natural gas in deepwaters and reinjection: lower emissions and
increase in recovery factor
25
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Drilling Rigs AvailabilityNecessity met with imported and domestic units
Rigs
00m)
8 9 6 82
Drilling Rigs: Imported vs. Domestic
42 42 42 42 42
umberof
Drillin
aterDepth>2.
26
40 41 42 4234
2519
8 17
23 31
(
5 7 811 9
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Imported Rigs Brazilian Rigs (Existing) Brazilian Rigs (New)
28 new domestic drilling rigs from 2016 on: Local Content between 55% and 65%
Midtermneedsfordrillingrigsarenowlargelysatisfied. Futureintermediatedemandwillbelimitedtospecificsituationsandneeds.
Startingin2016,Brazilianbuiltrigsexpectedtobeginreplacinginternationallybuiltfleetastheircontractsexpire(andsubjecttototalfleetneeds).
Ifforanyreasonthedomesticrigsarenotcompletedasscheduled,Petrobrashasthepossibilty
ofrenewingsomeorallofexpiringleases.26
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Downstream Investments
Projects Under Implementation
2013-2017 HIGHLIGHTSUS$ 43.2 billion
21%(9.2)
Implementation Portfolio: RNEST (Pernambuco)and COMPERJ 1st Phase (Rio de Janeiro)
11%
(4.9)
45%
(19.4)
6% 6%
9%
(3.7)
Refining capacity expansion in design phase:
Premium I (Maranho), Premium II (Cear) and
COMPERJ 2nd Phase (Rio de Janeiro)
6%
(2,8)
(2.4)
1%
(0.4)
1%
(0.3)
Projects Under Evaluation
(2.8)
Diesel and Gasoline Quality Portfolio: REPLAN,
RPBC, REGAP, REFAP and RLAM
US$ 21.6 billion
16%
2%
(0.5)
Fleet expansion: PROMEF 45Oil and Oil Products transportation vessels
64%(13.8)
(3.5)
3%7%
8%
(1.7)
CorporateEthanol LogisticsFleet Expansion PetrochemicalLogistics for OilQuality and ConversionOperational ImprovementRefining Capacity Expansion
(0.5)(1.5)
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Downstream2012-2016 Investments
Refinin Ca acit Ex ansion
n
Petrochemical
Logistics for Oil
Quality and Conversion
Operational Improvement
Biofuels
Projects Under Evaluation
US$
billi
201620152012 20142013
High utilization factor on the current assets, combining
2012-2016 INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS ProjectsUnderEvaluation
Implementation of projects depends mainly on:
End of the first investment cycle in Quality
.
international standards;
b. Regulatory requirements;
28
RNEST and 1st Phase of COMPERJ coming online
New refineries under evaluation (Phase I)
.
d. Competition for financial capacity;
I t ti d B l
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Integration and BalanceConstruction of new refineries intended to meet Brazilian demand
Thousbpd
INTEGRATION BETWEEN OIL PRODUCTION, REFINING CAPACITY AND DOMESTIC MARKET
PREMIUM I(2nd phase)300,000 bpd
Oct/2020
COMPERJ(2nd phase)
3,3803,472
4,200
PREMIUM II300,000 bpd
Dec/2017
,
Jan/20182,788
1,641
2,320
2,004
2,500
1,393
1,7982,147
1,8141,980
1,944
2,255 Abreu e LimaRefinery
(RNE)230kbpd
1) Nov/2014
2,320
PREMIUM I(1st phase)300,000 bpd
Oct/2017181
1,036
,
... ... ... ...
COMPERJ(1st phase)165,000 bpd
Apr/2015
1980 2000 2010 2012 2016 2020*OilandNGLProduction Brazil Totalcrudeoilprocessed Brazil OilProductsMarket(2scenarios)
ProjectsUnderImplementation ProjectsUnderEvaluation
29*2020TotalCrudeOilProcessedmayvarydependingonProjectsUnderEvaluation 29
P it S ki ith I t ti l P i
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Parity: Seeking convergence with International Prices9 months: +21.9% in Diesel and +14.9% in Gasoline
.In the last 9 months: 4 Diesel price readjustments, totaling +21.9%, and 2 Gasoline readjustments (+14.9%).
Average Brazil Price* x Average USGC Price**
Imp
800
900
220
240
260 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132008
rtedVolumes(R
$/bbl)
500
600
140
160
180
200
Losses
Gains (Thousandbb
Prices
200
300
400
60
80
100
120
n/13
n/12
n/10
n/09
n/11
l
/d)
ar/13
0
100
0
20
v/08
30(*) considers Diesel, Gasoline, LPG, Jet Fuel and Fuel Oil. (**) USGC price with domestic market prices.
JJJJ J
Gasoline Imports
Diesel Imports
ARP USGC (w/ volumes sold in Brazil)
ARP Brazil
MN
EBITDA
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EBITDAGrowing and stable cash flow generation
Ad ustedEBITDABreakdown erSe ment US bn ****
3.0 19.220.1
4.2
1.7
3.62.0
1.1
1.3
1.31.6
1.1
2.2
3.2
15.5
**
30.5
43.4 42.0
11
. .
19.3
6.9 2009 2010 2011 2012
2009 2010 2011 2012
15.6
31
(*)US
GAAP
(**)
IFRS
(***)
Adjusted
according
average
exchange
rate.
Excludes
Corporate
and
Elimination.
E&P RTM G&P Distribution International
Theimagepartwith relationship ID rId7wasnotfound in thefile.
T d B l
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Trade BalanceRapid demand growth in the last 4 years has led to a shift in the trade balance
2009(thous.bpd)
2012(thous.bpd)
4,400
4,700
5,000
+24%
+24%DieselSales
433548
779
227
705
5492,3002,600
2,900
3,200
3,500
3,800
,
Tho
usand
184152
2,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2,800
364 346
18
Exports Imports
397
81
75
Exports Imports Balance
156
1,600
1,900
2,200
2,500
Thousandm
+3%
249
Balance231
1,000
1,300
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Oil OilProducts
32
Theimagepartwith relationship ID rId7wasnotfound in thefile.Gasoline and Diesel International Prices
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Gasoline and Diesel International PricesTaxes account for significant share of pump price in Brazil
Gasoline Retail Prices2012 Average
Diesel Retail Prices2012 Average
Brazil
DisttributionMarginTaxationRefineryGatePrice Anhydrous Alcohol
Therefinerygatepriceforgasolineiscurrently37%oftheretailpricewhilefordieselitis61%
33
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Gas & Energy Investments
Projects Under ImplementationProjects Under Implementation + Under EvaluationUS$ 5.9 billion
32%(1.9)
6%8%0.8
20%(2.0)
US$ 9.9 billlion
43%
19%(1.1)
.
25%(2.5)
.
Projects Under Evaluation
US$ 4.0 billion
46%(4.6)
12%(0.5)
3%(0.1)
Conversion of Natural Gas into fertilizers and other gas chemical products:
UFN III at Trs La oas Mato Grosso do Sul
2013-2017 HIGHLIGHTS
34%(1.4)
51%(2.0)
Natural gas processing and transportation: NGPU Cabinas (Rio de Janeiro)
Electric energy generation: Thermal Power Plant Baixada Fluminense (Rio de
34Gas-chemical plants
LNG
Network
Electric Energy LNG Regasification: Bahia Terminal (Bahia)
Units in Design Phase: UFN IV (Esprito Santo) and UFN V (Minas Gerais)
Natural Gas Supply And Demand
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Natural Gas Supply And Demand(Million m/d)
35
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FinancialConsiderations
Financial Planning Assumptions
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Financial Planning AssumptionsFinancing analysis only incorporates projects under implementation
Main assumptions for cash flow generation and investment levels
No equity issuance Investment grade maintenance
2013-17 BMP is based on constant currencies from 2013.
Brent prices (US$/bbl) US$ 107 in 2013, declining to US$ 100 in the long term
Average exchange rate (R$/US$) R$ 2.00 in 2013, strengthening to R$ 1.85 in the long term
Leverage Limit: < 35% Maximum leverage in 2013 and 2014 (34%), declining after 2015
Net debt / EBITDA Limit : < 2.5x Limit will be surpassed in 2013 and will fall below 2.0x after 2015
Oil product prices in Brazil Convergence to international prices
Divestments US$ 9.9 billion
Returns on new E&P projectsPre-salt projects breakeven between US$ 40-45/barrelBig post-salt projects have returns similar to pre-salts
37
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Operating Cash Flow and Funding Needs
Additional financing needs will be funded exclusively throughnew debt. No equity issuance is envisaged.
246.9
10.79.9
39.8
246.9
Free cash flow, before dividends, after 2015.
Annual borrowin needs 2013-2017Billion
61.3
Gross US$ 12.3 billion Net US$ 4.3 billionUS
165.0
207.1
Net borrowing needs 50% below previous Plan due to:
2017 production, versus 2012, leading to higher
Divestments and restructurings
Cash utilization
-
operating cash flows
Declining downstream investments
Long-term Brent prices (US$ 100 vs US$ 90 in the
Fontes Usos
38
Operating cash flow (after dividends)
Investments
Amortization
previous Plan) and long-term F/X rate (R$ 1.85 vs R$1.73)
L
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Leverage
Leverage Net Debt/EBITDA
BMP Target (< 35%)
BMP Target (< 2,5x)
20172016201520142013 20172016201520142013
Declining leverage, within the Companys self-imposed limits Net Debt/EBITDA surpasses limit at some points in time, during the Plan period
39
Capex and Cash Flow
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pFree cash flow turns positive with completion of downstream projects
50000
US$MM
45,078 43,164
Capex vs. Operating Cash Flow
42,949Approx.
2000030000
40000
27,888
on
0
OCF2012 Capex2010 Capex2011 Capex2012 Capex2017
E&P Downstream Gas&Energy Others
2013 2017BusinessandManagementPlanAssumptions: Capex Downstreamprojectsnotcurrentlyunderimplementationonlyproceed
supportedbycashflowsandbalancesheetstrength
OperatingCashFlow: Oilproductionincreasesby 750TBPD,generatingadditional
operatingcashflow. Importparitywouldeliminatedownstreamlosses
Capital Structure
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Capital Structure
1
24% 24%28% 28% 30%
20%
30%
40%
4
5
1.66 1.61
2.46 2.42
2.77
-10%
0%
10%
1
2
2
R$ Billion 12/31/12 12/31/11
-20%0
4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12
Lower operating cash flow and higher capexresulted in net debt increase.
Short-term Debt 15.3 19.0
Long-term Debt 181.0 136.6
Total Debt 196.3 155.6
increased net debt.
- as an as qu va en s . .
= Net Debt 147.8 103.0
US$ Billion
1) Net Debt / (Net Debt + Shareholders Equity)2) Refers to the adjusted EBITDA which excludes equity income and impairment.3) Includes tradable securities maturing in more than 90 days4) Period-end commercial selling rate for U.S. dollar
. .
41
Petrobras Ratings
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Consolidated investment grade position
A- / A3
BB+ / Ba1
BBB- / Baa3
BBB / Baa2
BBB+ / Baa1
Investment grade
B+/ B1
BB- / Ba3
BB / Ba2
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
oo ys tc
42
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Information:
Investor Relations
+55 21 3224-1510
.
www.petrobras.com.br/ir
43