Impacts of Climate Change on

Transboundary Water Treaties/

Sharing :

A Case Study of Kabul River basin,

Afghanistan

Findings

Deliverables

Presented by : Fahima Sadeqinazhad

Partner: Devendra M Amatya

4th Dec 2018, Almaty

Outline

Review of Objectives and Scope of study

Objectives

Study area, Methodology

Actual Result and Deliverables ,

Research Policy and programmatic outcome,

Publication,

Data Generated and ways to Calibrate with other granites

Development Impacts

Conclusion and recommendation

Project objectives:

The specific objectives are as followings:

1. Identifications of suggestions for an integration of trans-boundary water issues in the Afghanistan- Pakistan Environmental Cooperation.

2. To allocate environmental flows requirement in the reservoirs operation policy.

3. To estimate the impact of climate change on hydropower, irrigation and for environmental flows demand.

Study Area

• Afghanistan and Pakistan share at least

nine rivers .

• Kabul River, which later joins the Indus

River, is one of the most important rivers

and a potential source of hydropower for

both countries.

• More than 7 million people in Afghanistan

part, which encompass 23 percent of the

Afghanistan population, live in the Kabul

River Basin (KRB).

• On the Pakistani side of the basin, the

river is a source for irrigation purposes in

the remote and mountainous Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province.

• The main source of the Kabul River is

from the glaciers and snow of the Hindu

Kush mountains.

• The river represents 26 percent of

Afghanistan‘s water resources.

Methodology

Data Acquisition & Preprocessing

Estimation of (EFR) Analyze and Evaluate Climate

Change Impacts

Select Emission Scenarios

Climate variable times series (P, T)

Downscaling Climate Variable

MAGICC5.3 -SENGEN

Adaptation scenarios Impacts of climate change on hydropower, irrigation and environmental flows demand

WEAP OPERATIONAL MODULE

Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA)

EFR

Range of Variability Analysis (RVA)

CROPWAT

Adversarial

STAGES OF WATER CONFLICT TRANS

Reflexive

Integrative

Scoping and Significance of Benefit

Sharing Scenarios

Determine Magnitude of Baskets of

Benefits

Water Conflict Management and Cooperation Strategy

Generate stream flow & Calibration and validation of stream flow

Analyze Trans boundary Water Challenges

1 2 3

Actual Result and Deliverables

Training

• 11 -Number of Training organized (GIS, Methods Irrigation, Hydrologists software,etc…)

• 78 Female Student, teachers and researchers were trained

• 218 Male Student, teachers and researchers were trained

Conferences

Policy Brief

Research Policy and programmatic

outcome

• 21 -Number Conferences where organized and attended

• 3 Conferences for Policy makes, Scientists, Local organizations, Universities, Local people

• 18 Conferences were attended

• Climate Change and Trans boundary water Policy Brief

• Impact of Climate change were presented to Policy makers, NGO’s, individual researchers

• Through our program: Source of climate change funding were introduces to Government bodies, NGO’s, individual researchers

• TB water cooperation mechanism were presented to Government bodies, NGO’s, individual

• Face to face meeting with GOV officials regarding the Climate change impact and TB water cooperation

Actual Result and Deliverables

Research Publications:

Benefit Sharing Framework in Trans-boundary River Basins

Capacity Building

Tru

st B

uild

ing

Deg

ree

of

Confl

ict

Pak

ista

n

Mutu

al I

nte

rest

s

Cooperation

Conceptual Diagram 2 (a)

Afghanistan / Pakistan Afghanistan

Despite so many tangible donor supports in the basin, still process of mutual cooperation is in the

failure stage due to lack of trust between the countries.

Benefit Sharing Framework In Trans-boundary River Basins

Actual Result and Deliverables (Papers On Hand)

Average annual maximum and minimum

temperatures are projected to increase in all

three future time period, with lower increase

in the near future and higher increase in the

far future periods.

The magnitude of increase of average

annual minimum temperature is higher than

average maximum temperature in a majority

of the basins.

Unlike temperature, precipitation shows

different directions of change in the basin.

Uncertainty exists in climate change

projections dye to selection of climate

change, downscaling/bias correction

methods.

Emission scenarios 1990-2030 2030-2060 2060-2090

Low emission

scenarios RCP4.5

16% 32% 40.17%

High emission

scenarios RCP 8.5

9.1% 32.63% 53%

Emission scenarios 1990-2030 2030-2060 2060-2090

Low emission

scenarios RCP4.5

3.28 6.86 8.73

High emission

scenarios RCP 8.5

3.21 6.56 8.6

Projected change in average annual Temperature (°C) in 1990-2090

Projected change in average annual Precipitation (%) in 1990-2090

Actual Result and Deliverables

• Start of Cooperation between riparian Sates

• Regional Climate change funding's

Regional Climate change fund

Findings from, PEER Research, Literature review, conferences, face to face meetings

Start of Cooperation

For the countries on Trans-boundary water

Conflict

Actual Result and Deliverables

Data Generated and ways to Calibrate with other granites

Generated Temperature &Precipitation Data up to 2090

Predicted Water Demand up to 2090

Land Use Map, Transboudnay River Maps, Precipitation and Climate Map

Current and Future Hydropower Dams Water Requirement, Increase in Population Rate, Modernization of Irrigation Methods

Note: Climate Generated Data of A2, A1B and B1,

where to compared to RCPs result of Other Granites

The Climate Change Conference in KRB brought together water experts on the same platform with

the following main objectives:

1. Identifying source of funding and practical methodology for climate change mitigate in Kabul river

basin

2. Exploring possible solution based on the challenge of climate change impacts of Kabul River Basin.

3. Proposing an adaptive mechanism to guide policy making in the management, governance, and

development of the Kabul River Basin.

• Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture, Hydropower ,Water and Environment

• Research capacity on river basins improved

• Global Health

Development Impact

The Kabul River Basin has a unique circumstances where both countries are down and up streams of one another. Nonetheless, the distrust and capacity weaknesses have created a complex situation in the basin in terms mutual utilization.

This research has formulated a step-by-step conflict transformation process framework which will transform the existing conflicts to sustainable cooperation.

The framework is formulated in a manner to change the topic of talks from right to benefits. This framework can be widely used as a decision making tool technically and politically.

The findings of this research reveals that the countries will not reach to the state of cooperation in water resources of the basin unless the distrust and capacity weakness challenges are overcome.

Conclusion & Recommendation

Thank you for your attention