April 22, 2015

University of Missouri Extension

Pat Guinan

April 22, 2015

2015 was warmest first quarter (Jan-Mar) for globe since records began in 1880…

Missouri Climate Center/NOAA

Mild April in the Great Plains & Midwest…

+3-4°+6-7°

+5-6°+4-5°

Average Temperature Departure from Mean (°F) April 1-20, 2015

http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/

MRCC

50-55°F

55-60°F

60-65°Fhttp://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/cliwatch/mesonets/soilTemp.html

Accumulated Precipitation (in.) Apr 1 – Apr 21, 2015

Accumulated Precipitation (in.) Departure from Mean

Apr 1 – Apr 21, 2015

Generally wet April with pockets of dryness…

MRCCMRCC

http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

7-day precipitation forecast beginning 7:00 p.m., Tue, Apr. 21 thru 7:00 p.m., Tue, Apr 28,

2015

11

0.5

0.5

1.523

.25

.250.5

6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook Apr 27- May 1, 2015

6-10 Day Temperature Outlook Apr 27- May 1, 2015

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

David Reinbott

April 22, 2015

Issues Impacting Prices on April 22

• Strong U.S. dollar

• Planting progress – 9% vs. 13%

• Acres planted – change of 1- 2 million

• Large world stocks

• Growing S.A. crop

• Avian bird flu

• Grain sorghum acres up

2015 Grain Sorghum Budget2015

Cost &

Returns

Adequate

Sugarcane

Aphid

Control

Without Adequate Sugarcane

Aphid Control

2015

Cost &

Returns

Corn

Revenue

Estimated Yield (Bu/Acre)A 110 110 82.5 150

Estimated Price ($/Bushel)B $4.60 $4.60 $4.60 $3.70

Estimated Gross Revenue ($/Acre) $506.00 $506.00 $379.50 $555.00

Total Variable Cost 328.06$ 340.54$ 334.29$ 453.29$

Fixed CostsFixed Machinery CostI 47.00 47.00 51.70 52.00 Fixed Buildings & Bins Cost 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 Total Costs (Excluding Land) 392.06$ 404.54$ 402.99$ 522.29$

Estimated ReturnsReturns Above Variable Costs $177.95 $165.46 $45.21 $101.71Returns Above Total Costs $113.95 $101.46 ($23.49) $32.71

Variable CostC

Weekly U.S. Dollar Futures

Corn Balance Sheet1 Million less acres

U.S. Corn: Supply & UseNew Crop New Crop New Crop

2014/15 2015/16 2015/16 2015/16Planted Acres 90.6 89.2 88.2 88.2Harvested Acres 83.1 81.7 80.8 80.8

Yield 171 164 166 170

Beginning Stocks 1,232 1,828 1,828 1,828Production 14,216 13,399 13,411 13,735Imports 25 25 25 20Total supply 15,473 15,252 15,264 15,583

Feed & Residual 5,250 5,350 5,350 5,350Food, Seed, & Industrial 6,595 6,635 6,635 6,635Ethanol 5,200 5,225 5,225 5,225Total Domestic 11,845 11,985 11,985 11,985Export 1,800 1,820 1,825 1,825Total use 13,645 13,805 13,810 13,810

Ending Stocks 1,828 1,447 1,454 1,773Stocks/Use 13.4% 10.5% 10.5% 12.8%Ave Farm Price $3.70 $4.25 $4.10 $3.80

2015 - 16 Corn Ending Stocks Projections Matrix

USDA 2015-16 Est. Beginning Stocks 1.827 Billion Bushels Import 0.025 Billion BushelsUSDA Estimated 2015-16 Demand 13.81 Billion Bushels

Planted Acres

Harvested Acres 154 156 158 160 162 164 165 166 167 168 169

86.7 79.5 0.284 0.443 0.602 0.761 0.920 1.079 1.158 1.237 1.317 1.396 1.47687.2 79.9 0.354 0.514 0.674 0.834 0.994 1.154 1.234 1.314 1.393 1.473 1.55387.7 80.4 0.425 0.586 0.747 0.907 1.068 1.229 1.309 1.390 1.470 1.550 1.63188.2 80.8 0.496 0.657 0.819 0.981 1.142 1.304 1.385 1.466 1.546 1.627 1.70888.7 81.3 0.566 0.729 0.891 1.054 1.217 1.379 1.460 1.542 1.623 1.704 1.78689.2 81.8 0.637 0.800 0.964 1.127 1.291 1.454 1.536 1.618 1.700 1.781 1.86389.7 82.2 0.707 0.872 1.036 1.201 1.365 1.529 1.612 1.694 1.776 1.858 1.94090.2 82.7 0.778 0.943 1.109 1.274 1.439 1.605 1.687 1.770 1.853 1.935 2.01890.7 83.1 0.848 1.015 1.181 1.347 1.514 1.680 1.763 1.846 1.929 2.012 2.09591.2 83.6 0.919 1.086 1.253 1.421 1.588 1.755 1.838 1.922 2.006 2.089 2.17391.7 84.0 0.990 1.158 1.326 1.494 1.662 1.830 1.914 1.998 2.082 2.166 2.250

Yield per Acre

Bu./ac.

May 2015 Corn Futures

December 2015 Corn Futures

Ron Plain

April 22, 2015

Cattle Outlook (title)

Retail Choice Beef Prices, Monthly

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Cents per Pound

Source: USDA/ERS

10 monthly records in 2014

U.S. Per Capita Meat Consumption

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

25019

45

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

f

Pounds

Source: USDA/ERS

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Million Head

2014: 33.9 million head, up 0.5%

First increase since 1995

Source: USDA/NASS

U. S. Calf Crop, 1945-2014

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Percent

Imports Exports

U.S. Beef Imports & Exports as % of U.S. Production, monthly

Source: USDA/ERS

Dollar Exchange Rate

USDA expects 2015 meat exports to be down 6% and meat imports to be up 4% compared to 2014.

C-S-0804/17/15

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS

Livestock Marketing Information Center

2014 cattle slaughter was down 6.9%2015 year-to-date is down 6.0%

C-S-1804/17/15

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS

Livestock Marketing Information Center

2014 steer dressed weight was up 1.0%2015 year-to-date weight is up 1.6%

C-S-1404/17/15

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS

Livestock Marketing Information Center

2014 cow slaughter was down 13.8%2015 year-to-date is down 5.9%

C-S-1304/17/15

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS

Livestock Marketing Information Center

2014 heifer slaughter was down 7.9%2015 year-to-date is down 5.9%

Large U.S. Feedlots, Monthly

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Mil. Head

2012

2013

2014

2015

Mar 1 cattle on feed: down 0.5%

Cattle on Feed

04/13/15

Data Source: USDA-AMS

Livestock Marketing Information Center

Choice Steer Breakeven PriceS. Plains Cattle Feedlots, Monthly

75

95

115

135

155

175

195

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

$ Per Cwt.

Breakeven Projected Breakeven

Source: LMIC

Cost of Gain is roughly $73/cwt.

U.S. Commercial Beef ProductionMillion Pounds

*forecast

2013 2014 2015

Qtr 1 6,172 5,868 5,660

Qtr 2 6,516 6,183 6,240*

Qtr 3 6,609 6,178 6,210*

Qtr 4 6,423 6,023 6,100*

Year 25,720 24,252 24,210*

----- % Change -----

2013-14 2014-15.

- 4.9% - 3.5%.

- 5.1% +0.9%.

- 6.4% +0.5%.

- 6.2% +1.3%.

- 5.7% - 0.2%

5 Area Slaughter Steer PricesChoice Steers Per Live Hundredweight

2012 2013 2014 2015

Qtr 1 $125.29 $125.52 $146.34 $162.43

Qtr 2 $121.91 $124.95 $147.82 $162-168*

Qtr 3 $119.69 $122.30 $158.49 $157-169*

Qtr 4 $125.54 $130.77 $165.60 $157-171*

Year $122.86 $125.89 $154.56 $160-167*

*forecast

Nebraska Slaughter Steer Price,Monthly Average 2000-2015

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jan

00

Jan

01

Jan

02

Jan

03

Jan

04

Jan

05

Jan

06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

Jan

16

Dollars per Cwt.

Cash Futures

OKC 750-800# Feeder Steer Price,Monthly Average 2000-2015

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

250

Jan

00

Jan

01

Jan

02

Jan

03

Jan

04

Jan

05

Jan

06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

Jan

16

Dollars per Cwt.

Cash Futures

Estimated Average Cow Calf ReturnsReturns Over Cash Cost (Includes Pasture Rent), Annual

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

$ Per Cow

Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

David Reinbott

April 22, 2015

Issues Impacting Prices on April 22

• Record acres and production

• U.S. acres – plus 1 – 2 million acres

• U.S. exports

• Large S.A. crop

• Large world stocks

Soybean Balance Sheet

1 Million more acres

U.S. Soybean: Supply & UseNew Crop New Crop New Crop

2014/15 2015/16 2015/16 2015/16Planted Acres 83.7 84.6 85.6 85.6Harvested Acres 83.1 83.8 84.7 84.7

Yield 47.8 44.6 44.6 46.0

Beginning Stocks 92 370 370 370Production 3,972 3,737 3,780 3,898Imports 30 20 20 20Total supply 4,094 4,127 4,170 4,288

Crush 1,795 1,800 1,800 1,800Seed & Feed 136 120 120 120Export 1,790 1,800 1,825 1,825Total use 3,721 3,720 3,745 3,745

Ending Stocks 373 407 425 543Stocks/Use 10.0% 11.0% 11.3% 14.5%Ave Farm Price $10.10 $9.75 $9.50 $8.50

2015 - 16 Soybean Ending Stocks Projections Matrix

USDA 2015-16 Est. Beginning Stocks 0.37 Billion Bushels Import 0.020 Billion BushelsEstimated 2015-16 Demand 3.72 Billion Bushels

Planted Acres

Harvested Acres 42.1 42.6 43.1 43.6 44.1 44.6 45.1 45.6 46.1 46.6 47.1

82.1 81.3 0.092 0.132 0.173 0.214 0.254 0.295 0.336 0.376 0.417 0.458 0.49882.6 81.8 0.113 0.154 0.194 0.235 0.276 0.317 0.358 0.399 0.440 0.481 0.52283.1 82.3 0.134 0.175 0.216 0.257 0.298 0.339 0.380 0.421 0.463 0.504 0.54583.6 82.8 0.154 0.196 0.237 0.279 0.320 0.361 0.403 0.444 0.485 0.527 0.56884.1 83.3 0.175 0.217 0.258 0.300 0.342 0.383 0.425 0.467 0.508 0.550 0.59184.6 83.8 0.196 0.238 0.280 0.322 0.364 0.405 0.447 0.489 0.531 0.573 0.61585.1 84.2 0.217 0.259 0.301 0.343 0.385 0.428 0.470 0.512 0.554 0.596 0.63885.6 84.7 0.238 0.280 0.322 0.365 0.407 0.450 0.492 0.534 0.577 0.619 0.66186.1 85.2 0.259 0.301 0.344 0.386 0.429 0.472 0.514 0.557 0.600 0.642 0.68586.6 85.7 0.279 0.322 0.365 0.408 0.451 0.494 0.537 0.579 0.622 0.665 0.70887.1 86.2 0.300 0.343 0.386 0.430 0.473 0.516 0.559 0.602 0.645 0.688 0.731

Yield per Acre

Bu./acre

2015 May Soybeans

2015 November Soybeans

Ron Plain

April 22, 2015

U.S. Retail Pork Prices, 2000-2015

200

250

300

350

400

450Ja

n 0

0

Jan

01

Jan

02

Jan

03

Jan

04

Jan

05

Jan

06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

Cents Per Pound

Source: USDA/ERS

Cost of Slaughter Hog Production, 2000-2015

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

8020

00

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Marketing Month

$ Per Live Cwt

Actual Forecast

Source: Iowa State University & University of Missouri

U.S. Hog Imports from Canada

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,00019

97

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Head per mo.

Slaughter Hogs Feeders Pigs

Source: USDA/ERS

U.S. Pork Imports & Exports as % of U.S. Pork Production, 2006-2015

Monthly Carcass Weight Equivalent

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Ja

n 0

6A

PR

JU

LO

CT

Ja

n 0

7A

PR

JU

LO

CT

Ja

n 0

8A

PR

JU

LO

CT

Ja

n 0

9A

pr

Ju

lO

ct

Ja

n 1

0A

pr

Ju

lO

ct

Ja

n 1

1A

pr

Ju

lO

ct

Ja

n 1

2A

pr

Ju

lO

ct

Ja

n 1

3A

pr

Ju

lO

ct

Ja

n 1

4A

pr

Ju

lO

ct

20

15

% of Production

Imports Exports

Source: USDA/ERS

New PEDV & PDCoV Cases by WeekNAHLN Reports

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

4-1

5 5

-06

5-2

7 6

-16

7-0

7 7

-28

8-1

8 9

-08

9-2

9 1

0-20

11-

10 1

2-01

12-

22 0

1-12

02-

02 0

2-23

03-

16 0

4-06

04-

27 0

5-18

06-

08 0

6-29

07-

20 0

8-10

08-

31 0

9-21

10-

12 1

1-02

11-

23 1

2-14

01/

04 0

1/25

02/

15 0

3/08

2013-2015 Week Ending

New Cases

PDCoV

PEDV

Source: AASV & NAHLN

U.S. Pigs per Litter by Month

8.6

8.8

9

9.2

9.4

9.6

9.8

10

10.2

10.4

10.6

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Head

Pigs per litter:

Dec-Feb 14: - 5.5%

Dec-Feb 15: +6.7%

Source: USDA/NASS

Barrow & Gilt Live WeightsIowa-Minnesota Weekly Average

265

270

275

280

285

290

Pounds

2013

2014

2015

record

2014 average was 284.4 lbs, up 8.5 lbs from 2013

Source: USDA/AMS

H-S-0504/17/15

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS

Livestock Marketing Information Center

2014 hog slt - 4.6%2015 YTD slt + 6.8%

March Hog InventoryAll Hogs & Pigs 107.2 Kept for Breeding 102.2 Kept for Marketing 107.7 Under 50 lbs 109.4 50-119 lbs. 106.6 120-179 lbs. 106.0 180 lbs. and over 108.9 Jun-Aug Farrowings 103.5 Sep-Nov Farrowings 103.3 Dec-Feb Farrowings 102.4 Mar-May Farrowing Intentions 102.1 Jun-Aug Farrowing Intentions 97.9

Source: USDA - NASS

Sows Farrowed by Quarter - U.S.

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

DJ

F9

9

DJ

F0

0

DJ

F0

1

DJ

F0

2

DJ

F0

3

DJ

F0

4

DJ

F0

5

DJ

F0

6

DJ

F0

7

DJ

F0

8

DJ

F0

9

DJ

F1

0

DJ

F1

1

DJ

F1

2

DJ

F1

3

DJ

F1

4

DJ

F1

5

% change from yr. ago

Source: USDA/NASS

H-P-0904/13/15

Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

Livestock Marketing Information Center

Commercial Pork Production Forecast Million Pounds

*Forecast

2013 2014 2015

Qtr 1 5,777 5,785 6,155

Qtr 2 5,519 5,504 5,720*

Qtr 3 5,622 5,423 5,915*

Qtr 4 6,274 6,132 6,450*

Year 23,187 22,844 24,240*

------ Change ------2013-14 2014-15

+ 0.1% + 6.4%

- 0.3% + 3.9%

- 3.6% + 9.1%

- 2.3% + 5.2%

- 1.5% + 6.1%

Source: USDA - OCE

Iowa-Minn. Hog Price ForecastNegotiated Base Price Per Carcass Hundredweight

2012 2013 2014 2015

Qtr 1 $84.78 $80.17 $ 95.15 $64.10

Qtr 2 $85.45 $89.33 $115.67 $68-72*

Qtr 3 $83.15 $95.37 $111.79 $68-72*

Qtr 4 $79.93 $82.36 $ 88.65 $62-66*

Year $83.36 $86.87 $102.83 $66-70*

*Forecast price – prior day purchased

Net Slaughter Hog Price,Monthly Average 2002-2015

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

Jan

02

Jan

03

Jan

04

Jan

05

Jan

06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

Jan

16

Dollars per cwt.

Cash Futures

Iowa Farrow to Finish Profits, 2006-2015Iowa State University Calculations

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

$ Per Head

Actual Forecast

Forecast Source: Ron Plain, University of Missouri

David Reinbott

April 22, 2015

Issues Impacting Prices on April 22

• Plains drought/rain

• World ending stocks going up

Wheat Balance SheetU.S. Wheat: Supply & Use New Crop

2014/15 2015/16 ChangePlanted Acres 56.8 55.4 -1.4Harvested Acres 46.4 46.9 0.5

Yield 43.7 45.4 1.70

Beginning Stocks 590 691 101Production 2,026 2,130 104Imports 145 150 5Total supply 2,761 2,971 210

Feed 160 165 5Food, Seed, & Industrial 1,037 1,045 8Total Domestic 1,197 1,210 13Export 880 1,000 120Total use 2,077 2,210 133

Ending Stocks 684 761 77Stocks/Use 32.9% 34.4% 1.5%Ave Farm Price $6.05 $5.40 -$0.65

2015 July Wheat

Joe Horner

April 22, 2015

Dairy Outlook in a Nutshell

• Supply Neutral– US cow numbers – rising slowly 1.1% (Feb 2015 year over year)

– US milk per cow – rising 0.6% (Feb 2015 year over year)

– US milk production – rising 1.7% (Feb 2015 year over year)

– California drought constraining 1/5 milk (-3.8% Feb 2015 year over year)

• Demand Neutral– Domestic – Spring flush moving supply to storage– Exports – Strong dollar hurting exports vs. NZ & EU – Global – Chinese and Middle Eastern weakness

• Outlook Better than feared– Margins pressured, but milk price hasn’t collapsed– Cull cow prices vs. milk prices dictate length of low prices

Stocks – Rising

Bullish Neutral

Bearish Bearish

http://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/pages/content/farmBill/fb_MPPDTool.jsp

Dairy Price Outlook

1st Half

2015

2nd Half

20152015

USDA – All Milk PriceFebruary 17, 2015

$16.00 - $17.00 $17.05 - $19.30 $17.05 -$17.65

MO Farm Forecast $18.25 $19.00 $18.50