April 30,2004 Space Solar Power Workshop 1

A Clean, Safe and Reliable

Baseload Energy System

Space Solar Power

Darel PrebleChair, Space Solar Power Workshopwww.sspi.gatech.edudarel.preble@comcast.net

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• Global Oil Production (~hydrocarbon) peak • War & Terrorism with energy component

• Micro Global Climate Change – Food

• Macro Global Climate Change - Weather

-- Both directly connected to rising carbon

dioxide from fossil fuel burning

A brief Energy & Environment overview

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“World oil production is at or near its peak and current world demand exceeds the supply.”

“Saudi Arabia is considered the bellwether nation for oil production and has not increased production since April 2003.”

- “Energy Trends and Their Implications for U.S. Army Installations”, by D. Fournier and E. Westervelt, September 2005, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Research and Development Center http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/files/2005-09_US_Army_Corps_of_Engineers_Energy_Trends.pdf

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“Once worldwide petroleum production peaks, geopolitics and market economics will result in even more significant price increases and security risks.

“Oil wars are certainly not out of the question.” - ibid

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“The problem is refineries are not prepared to take the oil that is available today. They need to make investments to handle sour oil.”

- Edmund Daukoru, President of OPEC and Minister for Petroleum Resources in Nigeria, http://www.peakoil.net/OilSummit2006.html

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“Peak oil is not a theory; 33 out of 48 of the largest oil producing countries have hit peak. It will require more than a decade to transition our civilization away from our heavy dependence on oil. Nothing close to the efforts envisaged have yet begun.

- Testimony by Robert Hirsch, SAIC, at the Pentagon and U.S. Congressional Committee on Energy and Commerce hearing, from the "Hirsch Report", commissioned by the Department of Energy -http://energycommerce.house.gov/108/hearings/12072005Hearing1733/hearing.htm and "Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management www.netl.doe.gov/otiic/World_Oil_Issues/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf

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Some say we are at peak oil now. Some say it is years away. Regardless of which is true, we need to quickly prepare for “demand destruction” - when rising oil prices and declining supply will slowly reduce oil demand – consumers - from the market.* These are typically transportation of people to work and goods to market. Electrification of transportation is necessary - which Japan has done more fully than any other industrial nation. *Update: on October 11, 2006, for the first time in two decades, oil demand in developed countries contracted, [IEA]. “Oil demand shrinks in developing countries”, www.ft.com/cms/s/71ed02d6-594b-11db-9eb1-0000779e2340.html

]

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Mexico’s Super giant field Cantarell is in Decline

Pemex CEO says production will fall without massive help to develop Ku-Maloob-Zaap, a heavy crude and/or Chicontepec with small oil pockets within fractured rock. Developing Chicontepec requires $38 billion to drill 20,000 wells, more than Pemex has drilled in 70 years. (With drilling technology Pemex doesn’t have.) Mexico’s Congress refuses to allow private investment.

• - “Pemex Oil Output to Drop Without Private Investment” March 30 (Bloomberg)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=aiCFqPwH6eo4

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China passed Japan as the #2 world oil importer in 2004. Global oil demand is surging. China burns more coal than the US.

Welcome to the new Cold War

A bitter pricing dispute with Ukraine disrupted Russia's natural-gas supplies to Europe, fueling fears over Moscow's growing clout as an energy supplier to Europe. Doubts about Russia's reliability and intentions as an energy supplier dominated the European press. "Welcome to the new Cold War," wrote the London Times, describing Moscow's leading role as energy supplier "Russia's most powerful weapon in its post-Soviet arsenal.1"

[1] “Gas price dispute worries Europeans” by Andrew Borowiec and David Sands, January 4, 2006 The Washington Times www.washtimes.com/world/20060103-103729-1692r.htm

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Some Peak Oil links :

Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO)http://www.peakoil.net/

Energy Bulletin (ODAC) http://www.energybulletin.net/

Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC) http://www.odac-info.org/

Matthew Simmonshttp://www.simmonsco- intl.com/

research.aspx?Type=msspeeches

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Increasing levels of CO2 are

impacting all

ecosystems.

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Ocean pH has become 30% more acidic. This affects calcification by organisms including phytoplankton and zooplankton, a major food source for fish and other

animals. - "Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide", page vi, Royal Society Policy:

www.royalsoc.ac.uk

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At our current rate of increase CO2 levels will be doubled by mid-century. How are, and will, such

changes impact us?

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Using Free-Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment (FACE) experiments to create doubled CO2 environments, impact on plants can be measured and predicted accurately :

Harshaw Experimental Forest near Rhinelander, Wisconsin http://oden.nrri.umn.edu/factsii/

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Plant-available nitrogen decreases 40 to 50 % under elevated carbon dioxide ...

Resulting in reduced nutrition from forage and grasses grown under doubled CO2 .

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Ruminants, including cattle, sheep, oxen, buffalo, deer, etc., are the source of nearly all the milk and half the meat the world eats. They will gain weight more slowly under under doubled CO2 »» Kansas State University

http://spuds.agron.ksu.edu/gainco2.gif

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Rice and wheat, the top grains in the world, both decline in nutritional value based on testing under elevated CO2.

Wheat grown at doubled CO2 declines in protein content by 9-13%. Wheat grown at high CO2 produces poorer dough of lower extensibility and decreased loaf volume. Hence, for bread making, the quality of flour, produced from wheat grain developed at high temperatures and in elevated CO2, degrades.

Nutrition from grains drops - wheat

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“The nutritive value of rice was also changed at high CO2 due to a reduction in grain nitrogen and, therefore, protein concentration.” The protein content of rice declines under combined increases of temperature and CO2.

Iron and zinc concentrations in rice, important for human nutrition, would be lower.

Nutrition from grains drops - rice

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Wild Bees And The Flowers They Pollinate Are Disappearing Together

An international team of researchers from the UK, the Netherlands and Germany compiled biodiversity records for 100s of sites, and found that bee diversity fell in almost 80% of them. Over the last 25 years, many bee species are declining or have become extinct. Plant declines closely mirrored those of their pollinators.

Researchers were shocked by decline in plants as well as bees. If this pattern is replicated elsewhere, the 'pollinator services' we take for granted could be at risk.“, said Dr Koos Biesmeijer, Univ of Leeds.

The economic value of crop pollination worldwide is between £20 and 50 billion each year. - Science, 21 July 2006, www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/07/060721200158.htm

Field scabious (Photo: Gérard Minet)

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Macro Global Climate Change

Large scale climate changes:

• drought heat waves • floods severe storms

are immense problems to forecast or model. Where does “regular weather” end and climate changed weather begin?“Abrupt climate change” is a growing and poorly understood concern.

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Global Ocean Slowing – Temporary or Increasing?

Much of the ocean water in the high latitudes of the Northand South Atlantic has grown fresher over the last fifty years, as tropical Atlantic waters became dramatically saltier. These were due to evaporation rates over the tropical Atlantic increasing by 5% - 10 over the last 40 yrs.

“The ocean current that gives western Europe its relatively balmy climate is stuttering, raising fears that it might fail entirely and plunge the continent into a mini ice age. A study of ocean circulation in the North Atlantic found a 30% reduction in the warm currents that carry water north from the Gulf Stream.” - "Failing ocean current raises fears of mini ice age" by Fred Pearce, Nature (vol 438, p 655)

www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn8398 See also www.whoi.edu/institutes/occi/viewArticle.do?id=9206 www.mbl.edu/inside/what/news/press_releases/2006_pr_08_24.html

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Source: (Broecker, 1995) “Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises”, National Research Council. - makes London warmer than NY

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More Bigger Hurricanes

The number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes worldwide has doubled over the past 36 years, even though the total number of hurricanes has dropped since the 1990s. The only region in the world experiencing more hurricanes and tropical cyclones overall is the North Atlantic, where they have become more numerous and longer-lasting, especially since 1995. The shift occurred as global sea surface temperatures have increased over the same period. – “Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment”, by P. J. Webster, G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry, H.-R. Chang, Science, 16 September 2005: Vol. 309. no. 5742, pp. 1844 – 1846 http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/309/5742/1844 and www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2005/hurricanestudy.shtml See also http://www.gatech.edu/news-room/release.php?id=898

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Global Dimming

Increased evaporation rates also increase cloud cover. Scientists have measured the loss of sunlight at about 2-3% per decade during much of the last half of the twentieth century. Concentrated at northern and mid latitudes, published estimates of the global average value are:• 5.3% (9 W/m²) over 1958-85 (Stanhill and Moreshet, 1992)• 2%/decade over 1964–93 (Gilgen et al, 1998)• 2.7%/decade (total 20 W/m²) up to 2000 (Stanhill and Cohen, 2001)• 4% over 1961-1990 (Liepert 2002)[i]

[i] “Global Dimming II” 19 Jan 2005, Guest commentary on BBC documentary on "Global Dimming" aired on January 13th 2005 by Beate Liepert, LDEO, Columbia University http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=110 last accessed 3/22/06

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“Human activities are increasingly altering the Earth's climate. Scientific evidence strongly indicates that natural influences cannot explain the rapid increase in global near-surface temperatures observed during the second half of the 20th century. Research indicates that increased levels of carbon dioxide will remain in the atmosphere for hundreds to thousands of years. ...

“Scientific research provides a basis for mitigating the harmful effects of global climate change through decreased human influences, technological advancement, ...

- adopted by the Council, American Geophysical Union, December, 2003

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“The costs of natural disasters, aggravated by global warming, threaten to spiral out of control, forcing the human race into a catastrophe of its own making”. The economic costs of such disasters threaten to double to $150 billion a year in 10 years, hitting insurers with $30-40 billion in claims, or the equivalent of one World Trade Centre attack annually.

"There is a danger that human intervention will accelerate and intensify natural climate changes to such a point that it will become impossible to adapt our socio-economic systems in time. The human race can lead itself into this climatic catastrophe -- or it can avert it.”

- World's second-largest reinsurer, Swiss Re,

Geneva (Reuters) March 3, 2004

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“2005 was marked by record losses from hurricanes in the North Atlantic, with insured losses exceeding US$ 83 billion and about $350 billion dollars of uninsured economic loss, e.g., including lost profits, lost business opportunities, etc.

Florida’s largest property insurer, State Farm Insurance, raised their average hurricane rates from $1,733 to $3,101 this year.

- “Hurricanes – More intense, more frequent, more expensive Insurance in a time of changing risks” Munich Re and American Re, (The 2005 hurricane season) April 2006, page 18, http://www.munichre.com/publications/302-04891_en.pdf?rdm=1825

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In Summary

• Oil production slowly declines as oil prices set record highs against roaring demand, triggering other price increases. Declining oil stocks intensify global tensions. • Production of nutritious food is very slowly declining, similar to Biosphere II. Many agricultural regions experiencing increasing drought. Water for irrigation is in short supply. Fertilizer, essential to maintaining nutritious crops becomes more expensive as natural gas and electricity rise in cost. • Global Ocean Circulation has begun slowing, warping our climate further.• Energy alternatives reveal SSP to be key energy solution

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Gasoline, diesel and jet fuel for transportation are the largest oil

users.

Global oil usage is inefficient, producing more waste heat and injecting more CO2 into the

atmosphere per unit of work

than any other fossil fuel.

Conservation & more efficient technology could help:

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Instant on water heaters, high efficiency refrigerators,..

Cutting oil usage with carpooling, hybrid cars, light rail and bicycles would help. Switzerland survived a six-year complete oil embargo during World War II with electrified transportation. Transportation is the largest and least efficient primary energy user. http://www.energybulletin.net/14492.html.

So conservation and more efficient technology is important, but not enough.

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Many large investors have banded together to push major energy companies to work on reducing their growing risk exposure to climate lawsuits, regulation and many other punitive loss risks. Ceres is one example:

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Generous Federal and state subsidies and incentives for many types of renewable energy. These are summarized by state at the Database of State Incentives for Renewable Energy: http://www.dsireusa.org/

These efforts are ineffectual - they won’t get the job done. The EIA forecasts no progress – no decline in CO2

emissions – as a result of current policies through 2030.

Nuclear Proliferation … and war?

 Iran said it could defeat any American military action over its controversial nuclear drive. The United States accuses Iran of using an atomic energy drive as a mask for weapons development. US news reports said President George W. Bush's administration was refining plans for preventive strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities.

Iran announced it had successfully enriched uranium to make nuclear fuel, despite a UN Security Council demand for the work to be halted by April 28. - “Iran issues stark military warning to United States”, April 15, 2006 Copyright AFP 2005, AFP

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With SSP -- that nuclear power plant 93 million miles away

nuclear waste problems

nuclear fuel supply worries

nuclear proliferation problems

Evaporate ..

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SPS requires no fuel and has no operations personnel – it is an antenna – with farms underneath.

It is the cleanest source of virtually unlimited baseload energy.

SSP is available 99% of the year at GSO. Baseload nuclear or coal plants are available only 90%.

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  Clean? Safe? Reliable? Baseload?

Fossil Fuel No Yes Decades remaining Yes

Nuclear No Yes Fuel very limited Yes

Wind Power Yes Yes No, intermittent No

Ground Solar Yes Yes No, intermittent No

Hydro Yes Yes No; drought; complex scheduling

Bio-fuels Yes Yes Very limited quantities - competes directly with food production. *

SSP Yes Yes Yes Yes

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Oil and energy tightly link our world markets.

"We are in the beginning stages of major changes to agricultural markets caused by rapidly expanding production of biofuels.“ – Credit Suisse Group, in “Corn Is Booming as Ethanol Heats Up”, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116260858542413472.html

Poorer nations, such as Mexico and China, are beginning to confront this growing fuel or food crisis -

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"75,000 Mexicans stood up in Mexico City’s giant Zocalo plaza to denounce the rising price of tortillas...

“Calderon stole the elections, and now he’s stealing the tortillas!” screamed a banner...   

“If all the corn produced in America in 2005 were dedicated to ethanol production it would reduce U.S. demand for gasoline by, at most, 12 percent... 

- “A bumper crop of unintended consequences”, February 3, 2007 http://news.bostonherald.com/editorial/view.bg?articleid=180746

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To reach Bush’s 20 percent goal, corn production must grow to 167 percent of its 2005 levels, and every kernel must go into ethanol.   Kiss your corn pudding goodbye.

Corn is also the major feed/ingredient for chickens, pigs, cattle; milk, cheese, eggs, hamburger, Coke, Pepsi, Jack Daniels, etc., ...

(By weight, a McDonald’s hamburger is 52% corn.)

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“The 111 ethanol refineries now in operation, the 75 under construction or expansion, and others still being planned, would be able to use 10 billion bushels of corn a year by 2009 — about the same as the entire 2006 crop.  The price of pig feed has gone up 25 per cent since the US summer, he said, "and it's not the price so much as the fact that it's just not available“ -  Dave Warner, National Pork Producers Council.

"The days of the United States meat industry in its current state appear to be numbered. The gates are down. The lights are flashing. Does anyone see the train coming?" - " David Nelson, agribusiness analyst for Credit Suisse Group. - “Ethanol fuels concern of US farmers"

http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/ethanol-fuels-concern-of-us-farmers/2007/01/28/1169919212154.html

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"By 2010, China plans to plant an area the size of England, or 13 million hectares, with trees from which biofuel can be extracted as a source of clean energy” - State Forestry Administration in" Fuel from forests is new clean energy goal”  http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2007-02/08/content_803963.htm

China’s action will also exacerbate climate change; although jatropha trees (palm oil) would provide about 5% of China’s oil demand by 2010.  China's "food or fuel?" crisis is developing much like Mexico and other countries.

     "The government has to consider food as a top priority for the people. In looking at the cause of death statistics, the number of people dying from starvation is very great... We have to consider the cost to human lives as weighed against monetary gains. - " Biodiesel Sweeps China in Controversy", http://www.renewableenergyaccess.com/rea/news/chinawatch/story?id=47207

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2002 2005 What should be America’s Goal in Space?

32% 35% Build satellites in Earth orbit to collect solar energy to beam to utilities on Earth

23% 17% Develop the technology to deflect asteroids or comets that might destroy the Earth

13% 10% No Opinion

4% 10% Send humans to Mars

2% 7% Search for life on other planets

6% 7% Build a human colony in space

3% 6% Develop a passenger rocket to send tourists into space

5% 4% Build a base on the moon for humans to use for moon exploration

11% 2% None of the above, we should stop spending money on space

1% 2% None of the above

Source: Matula, Thomas L and Karen A. Loveland. " Public Attitudes toward Different Space Goals: Building Public Support for the Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) " in the Proceedings of Space 2006: The 10th International Conference on Engineering, Construction, and Operations in Space, Houston, TX, March 5-8, 2006.

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If we started now could we build SSP in time to mitigate most? of the problems mentioned?..

The technology to build an SSPS system is available now.

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No company(s) or agency(s), however, is prepared to assume the immense financial risk of initiating construction of an SSPS.

There are simply too many engineering, financial, regulatory and managerial risks for any group we have been able to identify to undertake SSP today.

But this road has been well traveled by America before ...

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There is a tried and true vehicle, that could initiate SSP construction today.

A private Congressionally chartered corporation has all the requisite advantages. Comsat Corp., chartered in 1962, opened space for communication satellites - when we knew little about space, rockets or space communications. Communications satellites are now a $100 Billion industry per year. The “Sunsat Act” would accomplish the same task, creating a space solar power industry of much greater size.

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Thank you for the privilege of speaking to you today about Space Solar Power.

Space Solar Power can cleanly repower earth and build a highway to the High Frontier… 

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FOR MORE INFO...

Let’s Roll!!

Call or write your Congressmen: www.congress.org

Ask them to sponsor the Sunsat Act - a draft is available at

www.sspi.gatech.edu/sunsat-how.pdf

Learn more - at the Space Solar Power Workshop website www.sspi.gatech.edu