“Arab Climate Resilience Initiative”

“The Impacts Of Climate Change On � Water Resources ”

Damascus, The Arab Republic of Syria 15-16 September 2010.

First Regional Consultation Meeting

Dr. Naif Abu-LohomProf. Dr. Abdulla Babaqi

Water & Environment Centre (WEC), Sana’a UniversityRepublic of Yemen

• Background Information

• Yemen’s Climate Change Profile

• Challenges in Water Sector

• Scenarios of Climate Change Impact on water sector

• Main National Policies, Projects, Activities Undertaken to Address CC

• Recommendation to Mitigate and adopt with CC Impacts

• Opportunities for Interventions at Different Levels:

(Technical, Policy, Institutional, Support of Local Communities, etc)

Contents

Yemen signed UNFCCC in 1992 and ratified it in May 1996.

Ratified Kyoto Protocol in September 2004.

Established CDM Committee in 2007.

Background Information

Hyper- Arid Zone

Rainfall < 50 mm/Y

Arid Zone (Rainfall = 100 – 250 mm/Y

Semi Arid Zone

Rainfall = 250 – 500 mm/Y

Sub-Humid Zone

Rainfall > 500 mm/Y

UNESCO (1979), classified Yemen into 4 Climatic Zones:

Yemen Climate Change Profile

• Historical data (since 1970) indicate Warming become greater for summer(+0.2°C/decade) than winter (+0.15°C/decade).

• According to IPCC report, Yemen is expected to warm by 3-4°C by 2080s which is roughly 1.5 times the global mean response

Temperature Trend

• The average total annual precipitation recorded for about 100 years show variability but without an obvious and unpredictable trend

• The extreme events are increasingly becoming a source of concern

(Hadramout & Almahra Floods).

Yemen Climate Change Profile

Rainfall Variability In Yemen

• The Fig. depicts the spatial distribution of rainfall in Sana’a City measured at four stations

• It shows significant differences in total rainfall over a period Jan. – July 2007

Rainfall Variability In Sana’a City

Hadhramout Flood, 25th October, 2008

• The flooding comes after more than a full day of rain in Yemen, which normally receives only a few inches of rain per year.

• A flash floods have claimed the lives of more than 140 persons and left more than 20,000 without shelter in the Hadramout and Maharah Governorates

INC & NAPA identified 5 main sectors vulnerable to climate change

Impacts:

1. Water Resources

2. Agriculture

3. Coastal Zone

4. Biodiversity

5. Health and Tourism

Vulnerable Sectors to Climate Change Impacts

Challenges In Water Sector

• Increased water scarcity and reduced water quality

• Per capita annual water resources of only 120 m3

• 10% of regional average and 2% of global average

• Over-exploitation of GW (3-8 meters/year annual drop in most of the basins)

• Annual Abstraction in SB exceeds 4 times the recharge

• Irrigated area has expanded from 37,000 to about 1,200,000 ha

• Agriculture use more than 90 % of Water Resources

• Decrease Water Supply in most of the main cities (Sana’a, Taiz,Amran.)

• Increase water conflicts.

• Low irrigation water use efficiency (20-40%)

• Institutional and implementation capacity challenges for groundwater management

Water status in Yemen

Total renewable water: 2.1 BmTotal renewable water: 2.1 Bm33/y. /y.

Total water use: 3.0 BmTotal water use: 3.0 Bm33/y/y

Deficit: Deficit: 900 Mm 900 Mm33/y/y

Flood Irrigation

���Qat trees

Excessive Pumping

Impacts of Climate Change in Groundwater

Three simplified CC scenarios of the impacts of CC on groundwater for the period 2025 up to 2080s were developed (WEC & HR Wallingford, 2010) . This study financed by the World Bank in the framework of NAPA programe:

1. A “hot and dry” scenario

2. A “mid” scenario,

3. A “warm and wet” Scenario

These scenarios were developed based on the collected baseline data (1961-2000) i.e. :

1.Average annual Temperature

2.Average annual rainfall

3. 15 Global Climate Model (GCM)

Warming Degree C

Ch

ang

e in

an

nu

al r

ain

fall

%Scenarios

Broad Characterization Expectations:- warming (1 to 1.6 °C)-An increase in rainfall -An increase in Runoff and recharge

Expectations:

-Considerable warming (1.6 to 3.1 °C)

-No significant change in rainfall

Expectations:

•Decrease Rainfall,

•Decline of runoff and recharge

•Temp. may become too high (2 to 4.5 °C)

Prospects of GW Abstraction & Climate Change impacts for Yemen as a Whole

The RL after2025 traces:

Drop in recharge & abstractionsbelow current recharge levels under Hot & Dry Scenario

Average GW Recharge Baseline

The Red Line is common to all scenarios up to 2025

By 2025 GW reserves will be exhausted & abstraction will equal recharge

After 2025, the GL shows the extraction levels that would be consistent with current rates of recharge + the extra resource available from increased recharge under the ‘warm & wet’ scenario.

The Initial National Communication (INC) on CC was prepared on April, 2001

The National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA, Yemen) was prepared

on 2008 and endorsed by Cabinet in March 2009.

The Second National Communication (SNC) on CC was prepared on 2007- 09.

Some Relevant Existing national and sectoral strategies and plans

Poverty Reduction Strategy, Vision 2025.

National Water Sector Strategy and Investment Programme (NWSSIP)

Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plans

Health and Environment Strategy

Environmental Impact Assessment Policy

World Bank Country Assistance Strategy (CAS)

Establishment of Inter-ministerial CC Commission/Board, 2009:

(MWE, MAI, MoF, MLA, MFW, MoT, MTIT, EPA, NWRA)

Main National Policies Undertaken to Address the CC

Previous Projects Related to CC

- National Level:

•A Study on climate change scenarios projections

(2008/09)

•National Capacity Self Assessment for climate change,

biodiversity and combating desertification

•National Probabilistic Risks Assessment

•Hadramout and Al Mahra Probabilistic Risks Assessment

- Local Level:

•Municipality of Sana’a Natural Disaster Risk Evaluation

and Urban Planning

•Sana’a Integrated Storm water Management Plan •Adapting to Water Scarcity for Yemen’s Vulnerable

Communities: (Case studies of Sana'a Basin , Sada’a Basin and

Aden City)

On-going Projects Related to CC

• Climate impacts on water resource management and agriculture (W. Bank)

• Climate impacts on Agrobiodiversity (World Bank)

• Rainfed Areas Livestock Project

• Agro-biodiversity and Adaptation Project

• Water Sector Support Program

• Groundwater and Soil Conservation Project (World Bank)

• Sana’a Basin Water Management Project

• Integrated Coastal Zone Management

• Irrigation Improvement Project

Planned Projects Related to CC

• Pilot Project for Climate Resilience (PPCR)

Recommendations to Mitigate and Adopt with Climate Change Impacts

Improving governance through transparency and an active civil society role,

Capacity Building and awareness Programme at all levels

Empowering rural communities so that they can participate in assessments and feed in their knowledge to provide useful climate information;

Integrate climate resilience into the design of new infrastructure for irrigation and flood control

Developing an early warning systems which can help to anticipate and prevent disasters

Integrating climate change impacts into economic planning for the national budget.

• Updating knowledge on critical basins to determine safe yields and storage capacities of aquifers and surface water resources.

• Upgrading the network of hydro-meteorological monitoring stations; collating relevant agricultural, social and economic datasets to enhance understanding of the system

• Developing and use appropriate tools such as Decision Support System DSS at different levels (Catchment, Basin, County)

• Developing robust climate models that reduce the degree of uncertainty in national and regional climate prediction.

•  Conducting Remote sensing and ground-truthing studies to identify the relationship between climate and change in water resources, food security and agriculture.

The opportunities for interventions

1. Technical Opportunities : WR management and agriculture

The opportunities for interventions

1. Technical Opportunities : WR management and AgricultureInterventions Suggested measures

1. More efficient groundwater irrigation and more use of groundwater for supplementary irrigation

Piped conveyance and distribution Pressurized irrigation (drip, bubbler) Improved irrigation management Drought bridging through supplementary irrigation

2. Investment in infrastructure and improved water use efficiency of surface irrigation

Improved spate irrigation Incorporating flood preparedness into surface irrigation management Wastewater reuse

3. Return to traditional agricultural and water harvesting techniques

Promoting water harvesting, fog harvesting Terrace rehabilitation Promoting improved livestock and rangeland systems

4. Changing cropping patterns, growing shorter cycle

Varietal research (on short cycle or drought tolerant varieties, high value low water using crops etc.)

Farming systems research

5. Adoption of integrated management of the water resource at all levels

Develop capacity for planning and regulation on a partnership basis Water resource evaluation and monitoring Incentive structure to encourage efficient and sustainable use Licensing, registration, regulation Promote basin level planning and management Support WUAs as the lowest building block of WR management Watershed management in key catchments

Establishing a CC strategy endorsed by Cabinet and in consistence with available strategies

Accelerating formation of National Committee for CC adaptation and representing all concern agencies

Mainstreaming of climate change issues into all local, sub – national, national, and sectorial planning processes

Building institutional and technical capacity in the MWE, including NWRA, the water utilities and GARWSP to better integrate climate change concerns into water strategies and policies.

Ensuring close cooperation among various agencies with interests in the water sector, including MAI, MWE, NWRA, EPA, the water utilities, GARWSP, and CAMA.

Revision and development of Water Resources plans according to CC impacts

Staff Capacity Building and provision of a suitable environment to perform their tasks

 

The opportunities for interventions

2. Policies, Institutional and Capacity Building:

3. Support of Local Community-:

Investing in public awareness campaign of local communities about CC impacts

& adaptation

Promote Capacity building of lo identify priorities and adaption with CC

Involve local communities (LC, WUA) in planning and implementation process of

pilot projects

Improve livelihood of local communities through implementation of certain

activities based on areas priorities

Exchange experiences between community

representatives in different topographical areas

Documentation of the local traditional, indigenous

knowledge and use it for CC adaptation 

The opportunities for interventions

THANK YOU