arab spring
TRANSCRIPT
The Arab Spring: What it represents & implications for national security
(Data from Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, & Saudi Arabia)
Mansoor Moaddel (PI)
Arland Thornton (Co-PI)
Stuart Karabenick
Linda Young-DeMarco
Julie de Jong
The Arab Spring: What it represents & implications for national security
(Data from Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, & Saudi Arabia)
Overview
• The Arab Spring as a departure from extremism: Non-ideological movements for democracy & economic prosperity
• The Internet as an ideologically-neutral organizing tool
• A shift in people’s political and cultural values• A shift in people’s political and cultural values
• Who participated in the Arab Spring?
• Westernization, democracy, equality, & economic prosperity
• Interest in Western technology
• Positive implications for national security:
(1) The Arab Spring’s focus on freedom and democracy counters tendencies toward political violence
(2) Positive attitudes toward Westernization and Western technology provide a basis for constructive dialog with the Arab public
Data Collection Methods
Face-to-face interviews with nationally-
representative samples
Survey Field Period Sample Size
Survey questionnaire available:http://mevs.org/data/survey-summary/1004
Egypt June – August 2011 3,496
Iraq January – February 2011 3,000
Lebanon March – July 2011 3,034
Saudi Arabia January – February 2011 2,005
People’s Explanations for the Arab Spring:
Movements for democracy & economic prosperity
59%
51%
40%
50%
60%
70%
% r
ep
ort
ing
ma
in r
ea
son
fo
r th
e A
rab
Sp
rin
g
25%
9%
2% 2% 3%
15%
9% 10% 9%
4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Freedom &
democracy
Economic
equality &
prosperity
Islamic
government
Counter Western
influence
Part of a Western
conspiracy
Arab unity
% r
ep
ort
ing
ma
in r
ea
son
fo
r
Egypt Lebanon
%Relying on Satellite TV, Internet, or Mobile as Sources
of Information
49%
69%
74%
62%
49%50%
60%
70%
80%
14% 14%
10%
28%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Egypt Iraq Saudi Arabia
Satellite TV Internet Mobile
Trends in values among Egyptians,
Iraqis, and Saudis
National Identity
Which one of the following best describes you?
1. I am an Egyptian, Iraqi, Saudi, above all
2. I am a Muslim, above all
3. I am an Arab, above all
4. I am a Kurd, above all
5. Other
Egypt: % Expressing “I am an Egyptian,
Muslim, or Arab, above all”
81%
50%48%50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
8%
1%
50%48%
2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Above all, Egyptian Above all, Muslim Above all, Arab
2001 2011
Iraq: % Expressing “I am Iraqi, above all”
56%59%
63%
57%
40%
50%
60%
70%
23%
32%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Dec.-2004 Apr.-2006 Mar.-2007 Jul.-2007 Dec.-2008 Jan.-2011
Saudi Arabia: % Expressing “I Am Saudi, Muslim,
or Arab, above all”
75%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
17%
9%
46% 44%
8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Saudi, above all Muslim, above all Arab, above all
2003 2011
Trends in values
Religion & Politics
Is it very important, important, somewhat
important, not important, or not at all important
for a good government tofor a good government to
1.Implement only the Shari'a law?
2.Implement only the wishes of the people?
Egyptian Muslims:
People’s Wishes Versus the Shari’a
48%
64%
40%
50%
60%
70%
31%28%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Shari'a law Laws according to the people's wishes
2001 2011
Egypt: Which is better in a politician?
Strong religious beliefs or strong commitment to
national interests(2011)
78%
60%
70%
80%
90%
22%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Strong religious beliefs Strong commitment to national interests
Iraq: % Agree that Iraq would be a better place if
religion and politics are separated
50%
55%
60%
70% 69%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Dec.-2004 Apr.-2006 Oct.-2006 Dec.-2008 Jan.-2011
Saudi Arabia: Decline in support for the Shari’a
& in trust of religious institutions
69%
84%
60%
70%
80%
90%
31%
46%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Shari'a law very important Trusting religious institutions a great deal
2003 2011
Egypt: Democracy vs. Strong head of gov’t
(% Strongly agree)
68%
79%
84%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2%
9%5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Democratic political system Strong head of government
2001 2008 2011
Iraq: % Strongly agree that form of government
is good
59%
55%53%
40%
50%
60%
70%
30%
11%
5%
22%
11%
6%
15%12%
7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Democracy Islamic government Strong head of
government
Army rule
2004 Apr-06 2011
Saudi Arabia: Democracy as the best form of
government (% agree)
58%
71%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2003 2011
Trends in values
Attitudes toward gender equality
1. A wife must always obey her husband.
2. Men make better political leaders
than women do.than women do.
3. University education is more important for
boys than it is for girls.
Egyptian Muslims: Increase in support for
gender inequality
47%
55%
68%
60%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
16%
21%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Wife must always obey her
husband
Men make better political leaders University education is more
important for boys
2000 2011
Iraq: Decline in support for gender inequality
(% Strongly agree)
64%
71%
63%
69%
42%
50%
60%
70%
80%
29%25%
33%
8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
A wife should always obey her
husband
Men make better political leaders University education is more
important for boys
2004 2006 2011
53%
61%
44% 44%
50%
60%
70%
Saudi Arabia: Decline in support for gender
inequality (% Strongly agree)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Men make better political leaders A wife must always obey her husband
2003 2011
Egyptian Muslims: Correlates of protest
participations (Correlation coefficients)
.14
.25
.15
.17.16
.25
.11
.20
.13
.18
.11
.15
.20
.25
.30
.11 .11
.00
.05
.10
Egypt: Increased Westernization is tied to
increased gender equality, democracy, and
overall standard of living
90%93% 95%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Equality between women & men Democracy The overall standard of living
COUNTRY Would Be Better with Technology of
the West (2011)
85%89%
84%
90%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Egypt Iraq Lebanon Saudi Arabia
Summary
1. Increase in national identity
2. Decline in support for the shari’a
3. Increase in gender equality (except in Egypt)
4. Positive implications for national security:
(1) The Arab Spring’s focus on
freedom and democracy freedom and democracy
counters tendencies toward
political violence
(2) Positive attitudes toward
Westernization and Western
technology provide a basis
for constructive dialog with the
Arab public