INTRO Three years after the Arab Spring began, prospects for a more democratic Middle East seem worse than ever. Political transitions appear stalled in Egypt, Libya, and Yemen, while most other protest movements have failed to seriously challenge other regional leaders aside from that of Tunisias - which did prove to be successful in its transition to a democratic regime. Despite these disappointments, the Arab Spring provides a unique opportunity to examine regional trends that will only clarify structural factors that strengthen dictatorships fighting to survive waves of revolutionary upheaval, but also serve to inform future attempts to achieve more meaningful political reforms.

Factors that lead to regime change: obvious unequal distribution of capital; globalization (ability to mobilize people and stand as a unified front against an oppressive force that is, in this case, authoritarian regimes); becoming weary of extended periods of economic stagnation accompanied by high unemployment and limited social mobility, demographic shifts (the youth bulge) For the purpose of this essay, two principle factors that contributed to the regime changes (or attempted regime changes) in Tunisia and Libya include corruption and military involvement.

WHAT ARAB SPRING CAN TEACH US ABOUT REGIME CHANGE Something about monarchies sets the Arab countries apartperhaps a distinctive political culture, or access to a wider range of political strategies. Alternatively, the well-known resource curse argument posits that a surplus of oil wealth in several authoritarian Arab countries hindered revolutionary change. Meanwhile, others point to the strength of a regimes coercive apparatus as the most important factor in determining the dynamics of conflict in protest-ridden societies. Proponents of this position argue dictators are more likely to survive if thearmed forcesdecide to stay loyal to the regime, whereas their defection makes it more likely a revolution will succeed. So what can we take away from this? Its important to take into consideration the cultural backgrounds, religious and ethnic beliefs and traditions, that factor into peoples actions and political decisions. It also sheds light on the importance of consolidating democracy - overthrowing a government without an organized effort to displace it with a more efficient one will result in an unsatisfied populace who become vulnerable to military intervention. Consolidation of democracy also involves vitalizing the economy. As job creation and entrepreneurship will be critical for the success of democratic transition, Arab governments will have to adopt creative economic policies to promote economic growth. Failure to do so will hinder their ability to build modern economies. MILITARY (Barany reading)- We can also learn from the Arab Spring about the importance of military involvement in overthrowing a corrupt regime. No institution matters more to a states survival than its military, and no revolution within a state can succeed without the support or at least the acquiescence of its armed forces. Revolutions require so many political, social, and economic forces to line up just right, and at just the right moment, that revolutions rarely succeed. But support from a preponderance of the armed forces is surely a necessary condition for revolutionary success.

TUNISIA The country where the wave of unrest began, 2010. When it became apparent that the police and security forces would not be able to stop the quickly spreading street demonstrations, President Ben Ali unleashed gangs of thugs and his elite Presidential Guard against the protesters. Every ruler ordered his military and security agencies to suppress protests by force (including lethal force). In some cases, the generals said yes; in others, they said no because they calculated that their own and their countrys interests would be best served by regime change. Ben Ali, who essentially crafted Tunisia into a police-state kept his armed forces on the political sidelines. Unlike most other North African armies, Tunisias had never taken part in making political decisions, had never been a nation-building instrument. Ben Ali kept it a small and modestly funded force focused on border defense. Thus, as a police state, the regular military found itself overshadowed by far larger, more amply funded, and more politically influential security agencies run by the Interior Ministry. Even still, the lack of distractions made the Tunisian military one of the Arab worlds most professional forces. However, it had no special status and its officers disdain for the notorious corruption of the presidential clique, the military had no special stake in the regimes survival and no strong reason to shoot fellow Tunisians on the regimes behalf. As soon as Ben Ali found himself forced to turn to the soldiers as his last resort, he was doomed. Corruption. The graft and nepotism practiced by Ben Alis family are among the main causes of anti-government anger. The former presidents wife, Leila Trabelsi, is resented by many for her opulent wealth in a country that has seen prices jump and employment diminish during the worldwide recession. Ali owns a stake in most companies that bring in profit within Tunisia. Thus, corrupt government involvement in the economic sector has contributed to unemployment and economic stagnation. In recent months, unemployment has risen to 14 percent. NOTE: many of the unemployed are young college graduates who benefited from Tunisias relatively good public schools and free post-secondary education, but now they find themselves unable to make a living. Unemployed intellectuals make problems because the absence of work violates a bargain struck between Ben Alis authoritarian regime and the people: You ignore our iron fist, and we will supply you with jobs after you graduate ;) Corruption goes even beyond capital-stealing and economic harm. It was also pervasive Shrinking Press Freedom. Tunisia has long had a rigorously censored press; Ben Alis face appeared daily on the front page of every newspaper. The television was entirely state-run. Media (reporters, journalists) were harassed, as well. Ben Alis own family members own printed newspapers. For Tunisians already bitter about the presidents millionaire relatives controlling the country, this was a stinging blow: the relative in question was a wealthy businessman known to be part of the inner ring of government corruption. *also had a pet tiger. The economic miseries of the people were accentuated by endemic corruption of the regime. The corruption of the regime grew incessantly. With all this corruption, not only did the military feel marginalized, but the Tunisian people feel betrayed by Ben Ali turning the country into a police state.

LIBYA- The uprising in Libya that unseated Muammar Gaddafi is a vivid demonstration of the deep social, economic and political discontent in the Arab world and of the aspirations of its peopleparticularly the youngfor democracy and equality. In 2011, Libyans staged a protest demonstration against Gaddafis forty-two-year rule, calling on him to step down and demanding change and freedom.Reasons: Like Tunisia, theres low levels of institutional development and significant government corruption. Independent public institutions are nonexistent. Libya has not had a constitution since 1951. It has no formal head of state (Qadhafi/Gaddafi was the supreme guide of what he saw as a large clan), its parliament was literally symbolic, and Qadhafi had decades to sap its governmental institutions (the military included) in order to bolster his highly personalized brand of rule. So, corruption is rampant. Libyan economy was "a kleptocracy. Several foreign governments and analysts have stated that a large share of the business enterprise was controlled by Gaddafi, his family, and the government. Low income per capita, one-third living below poverty line. Naturally endowed with resources, the states income came from its oil production, which soared in the 1970s. But it was either stolen by the dictator and his cronies or utilized to sponsor militant activities. One of the most corrupt countries and notorious for its human rights controversies. Unlike Tunisia abad Egypt, Libya had the issue of tribal affiliations in government. Qadhafi gave most positions of trust, including key military and security commands, to his own tribesmen and close relatives: sons and nephews to head various security agencies and choice military units. The regular military was ostensibly charged with the external defense of the country while the security forces were sup- posed to protect the regime, though in practice ensuring regime survival was the main mission of all these forces. Qadhafis response to the revolt against him in Libya was to unleash his half-dozen or so paramilitary organizations against his opponents. Qadhafi deliberately neglected the military and gave priority treatment to parallel elite and paramilitary forces, most of them newly established and commanded by his relatives. Once the uprising broke out, the regime tried to guarantee the regular militarys obedience by giving out cash and making threats, by purging commanders who hesitated to use their guns against the rebels, and by holding the families of unit commanders as hostages. Many army soldiers deserted their posts. In order to compensate for the shortage of loyal troops, Qadhafi brought in mercenaries from sub-Saharan Africa, Europe, and Latin America. Soldiers who continued to fight against the rebels reported that their officers lied by telling them that they were being sent to put down foreign terrorists. The divisions in the Libyan armed forces reflected the many and deep-seated divisions in their respective societies. By mid-2011, country was in a state of civil war, with military still split and the outcome of the fighting uncertain. After months of fighting, the poorly organized rebels were still unable to take Qadhafi down. In 2011, the United States joined more than thirty countries in officially recognizing the rebel leadership, the Transitional National Council, as Libyas legitimate government.

CONCLUSION The events of the Arab Spring have given hope to millions of people across the Middle East and beyond that meaningful political change for the better is a distinct possibility. That said, of all the Arab countries effected by this wave of political protest, only two, Egypt and Tunisia, are now in what looks like political transitions to a more representative form of government. Two more, Syria and Libya, were driven into civil war with Yemen also showing some signs of following them. The rest of the countries of the Middle East retain the ruling elites they had before the Arab Spring started. Successful revolutions are very rare, but the attempted revolutions have taught a great deal about regime change and what can be done to make the transitions successful, next time around for subsequent revolutions.

WHAT WE CAN LEARN FROM CHILE: The Arab Spring countries that failed to consolidate democracy could have adopted policies from other countries that led similar revolts and succeeded in their establishments of democratic rule. Example 1: MALAWI - Unlike the Arab Spring, the driving force behind demonstrations in Malawi was not necessarily regime change. People were making modest and reasonable demands that every government, not least a democratic one, should meet. The protests exposed the lack of democratic institutions that have allowed the leaders administration to rule with total impunity (thanks to an uninvolved parliament). Their post-revolution success shows that democracy is not a one-way street. Once attained, citizens must be on their toes and defend it ferociously. A free vote is most valued by those that have been deprived of it for a long time. This carries with it a danger that peoples excitement makes them blind to the fact that democracy does not begin and end at the ballot box. There are some significant differences between the Arab region and sub-Saharan Africa, cultural and geo-political, but the Arab countries must pay attention and draw some valuable lessons on how hard-earned democracy is unraveling in the region despite its record number of votes. Tunisia - succeeded in finding common ground between Islamists and secularists - the new government actively sought a marriage between the two models, hearing their people in an organized fashion. Botswana - Since independence, Botswana has had the highest average economic growth rate in the world; growth in private sector employment has averaged about 10% per annum over the first 30 years of independence; since their revolution, theyve been open to foreign investment; LIKE LIBYA, AND SEVERAL OTHER ARAB SPRING NATIONS, Botswana is endowed with natural resources. This could be a corruption-magnet as it often is, but a disciplined government chose to diversify its economy away from minerals. With its proven record of good economic governance, Botswana was ranked as Africa's least corrupt country.