architecting for resilience and sustainability

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Architecting For Resilience and SustainabilityStuart Boardman Edinburgh 20 November 2015

Stuart.Boardman@KPN.com Ed.Harrington@Conexiam.com

ContextPropositions and definitions

What do we mean by.

Sustainability is a goalResilience is way of getting thereResilience is not being bullet proofIts about taking a hit, recovering and becoming strongerAnd its certainly not about trying to control everythingWe want our enterprises to be resilientWe want our world to be resilient3

Sustainability, Resilience and Us

Humans and Technology

Smart things and stupid peopleDoing It Wrong

Some Stories

My Citroen

The Hospital Generator

Systemic Thinking

ecosystem falloutAll about Stuarts car

666

Now I drive a VW dieselI selected it because of the low emissionsNow my dealer is spamming me with mails about their sustainability policy

Affected Ecosystems

Wolfsburg Almost 50% of the population work directly for VWLocal Council budget depends on company taxation

Affected Ecosystems

The state of Lower SaxonyShareholder in VWFactories in 3 other cities

Affected Ecosystems

The automobile industryShares down everywhereThe German automobile industryThe German economy

Affected Ecosystems

The NetherlandsTax breaks for low CO2 Standard20%Diesel (low)14%Hybrid 7%Electric 4%(except above EUR60K)

Tesla just opened a second factory in Tilburg

Affected Ecosystems

Our worldCan regulatory control succeed?Are we consumers or citizens?Are we solving problems with the thinking that created them?If we go fossil free what happens to oil based economies?How will shareholders react?

The Automobile Ecosystem

New high-end cars are among the most sophisticated machines on the planet, containing 100 million or more lines of code

More and more recalled cars good thing or bad one?In July, Ford said that it would recall 432,000 Focus, C-Max and Escape vehicles because of a software bug that could keep the cars engines running even after drivers tried to shut them offSource: New York Times 27/09/2015 Get me out of here!

Smart People & Stupid People More ways of getting it wrong

A story about complexity in which ancient wisdom beats modern meddling

Along rivers in Bali, small groups of farmers meet regularly in water temples to manage their irrigation systems. They have done so for a thousand years. Over the centuries, water temple networks have expanded to manage the ecology of rice terraces at the scale of whole watersheds. Although each group focuses on its own problems, a global solution nonetheless emerges that optimizes irrigation flows for everyone. Did someone have to design Bali's water temple networks, or could they have emerged from a self-organizing process?

Making People SmarterUnderstanding your ecosystem

Building Smarter Models When we try to pick out anything by itself, we find it hitched to everything else in the universe. John Muir

To understand any complex, adaptive system, we must look outside its limitsAll models are wrong But some models are useful. Jerry Ravetz

Static Models

What we have done for usWhat we do (and how that works)(And what we know about that)What they have done for them(thats relevant for us)And how it might affect usWhat else affects their businessThat we ought to keep an eye onEconomyResourcesPolicyInnovationEnvironmentStakeholdersCustomersEmployeesInvestorsSocietyhttp://blog.opengroup.org/2014/12/30/the-onion-from-the-inside-out/

We use the onion to:understand relationship between partiesIdentify stakeholders and what constitutes value for themIdentify dependencies between services (manual & auto)Identify external dependencies per party

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Dynamic Models Causal Loops

Source: Pallab Saha https://www2.opengroup.org/ogsys/catalog/D128

Interacting Loops

Source: Pallab Saha https://www2.opengroup.org/ogsys/catalog/D128

Emergent Strategies25

Dealing With Uncertaintyhttp://www.pbl.nl/sites/default/files/cms/publicaties/PBL_2013_Guidance-for-uncertainty-assessment-and-communication_712.pdf Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

What do we do if something completely unexpected crops up?26

Operational ModelsAgent-Based Modeling shows how ancient wisdom works.

An agent-based model (ABM) is one of a class of computational models for simulating the actions and interactions of autonomous agents (both individual or collective entities such as organizations or groups) with a view to assessing their effects on the system as a whole.Agent-based models are a kind of microscale model that simulate the simultaneous operations and interactions of multiple agents in an attempt to re-create and predict the appearance of complex phenomena. The process is one of emergence from the lower (micro) level of systems to a higher (macro) level. As such, a key notion is that simple behavioral rules generate complex behavior.Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agent-based_model

Smart Things & Smart PeopleLet things do what theyre good atMachines calculate and react fasterPeople think wider, less predictably, bring experience and emergenceContinuous exchange of information between people and machinesThe mechanic and Citroen and my carIoT, Data Science, Cognitive Computing and the shop floor

Theories/Frameworks/InsightsSystemic thinking and sensemakingBeer & Ashby http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viable_system_model http://www.esrad.org.uk/resources/vsmg_3/screen.php?page=homehttp://www.fractal-consulting.com/VSM-Intro-Fractal.pdfhttp://talesoftheenterprise.com/2013/06/mr-ashbys-bright-idea/Funtowicz/Ravetz Post-normal Science http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-normal_science Graves - Service Oriented Enterprise & SCAN http://weblog.tetradian.com/2014/10/29/services-and-ecanvas-review-summary/http://weblog.tetradian.com/2013/06/07/a-simpler-scan/ http://weblog.tetradian.com/2015/01/29/toolsets-for-associative-modelling/ Hodgson, Ison in Learning for Sustainability (ed Wals, Corcoran)Heuristics/common sense : BMC, TOGAFVia negativia Taleb in Antifragile

There is no one single best method. We need to understand all this.29

Sustainable Architecture: a Profile

http://www.ruthmalan.com/Journal/2014/2014JournalJanuary.htm#Agility_Integrity_Sustainability @ruthmalan

@ArtBourbon Stuart@stuartboardman.com www.talesoftheenterprise.com THANKS

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