are better educated migrants returning? evidence from multi ‐ dimensional education data tiit...
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Are better educated migrants returning? Evidence from multi‐dimensional
education data
Tiit Tammaru, Enel Pungas, Ott Toomet
University of Tarty
Department of Geography
NORCACE seminar11-13 April 2012, University of Waikato, New Zealand
This study was financially supported by European Social FundEstonian Science Foundation
Motivation
Increased East-West migration in Europe Issues related to „brain-drain“ and „brain
gain“ in the focus of debates Studies mainly based on level of education
Literature review on education and return
migration Background of the research population
Main trends of Estonian-Finland migration Characteristics of Estonian migrants in Finland
Intentions of return migration by education Discussion
Presentation outline
Literature review: Education and return migration
Relationship between the level of education and return migration
Less educated return (DaVanzo and Morrison 1981; Reyes 1997; Massey & Espinoza 1997; Curran & Rivero-Fuentes 2003)
Interpretation: Return migration is a correction of a failed move to a foreign country
Relationship between the level of education and return migration
Better educated return (Reicher 2001; Constant & Massey 2003; King and Newbold 2008; Bijwaard 2010)
Interpretations: Better educated are spatially more mobile They are valued also at country of origin
especially when studyed abroad Correction of the failed move to a foreign country
Other education dimensions highlighted
in literature
Studies abroad (Borjas and Bratsberg 1996; Bijwaard 2010; Dustmann and Glitz 2011)
Over-education (Dustmann et al 2007; Kahanec 2009; Drinkwater et al 2009; Trevena 2011)
Aim of the study
To study the associations between intentions of return migration and education
Dimensions of education to be studied: level of education (3 levels) type of education (general/vocational) education country (origin/destination) perceived over-education (yes/no)
Background: Estonia-Finland migration
Case study countries
Estonia (EE) and Finland (FI) Neighbouring countries EE part of the Soviet Union 1944–1991 EE part of European Union since 2004
and eurozone since 2011 Similar languages but differences in wealth No EE diaspora in FI up until 1991
Estonian migration with Finland, 1991-2010
Source: Statistics Finland
Estonian migration with Finland, 1991–2010
Source: Statistics Finland
Immigration mainly implies return migrationImmigration ca ¼ of emigration
Size of Estonian of Estonian diaspora in Finland, 1991–2010
Source: Statistics Finland
Before 1991, almost no EE diaspora in FIIn 2011, largest EE diaspora in FIIn 2011, EE larges immigrant group in FI
Research data
Survey among EE migrants in FI
Spring 2009 1000 immigrant of EE origin living in FI Sample drawn from the FI Population Register Telephone interviews (30 min) conducted from EE Survey company Turu-uuringute AS
Results
Emigration motive
Education of EE migrants in FI
Share, %
Primary 23Secondary 50Tertiary 26
General 63Vocational 37
Overeducated 33Matched 62Undereducated 5
Studied in FI 38Not studied in FI 62
Studied in FI by age at migration
Changes in the labour market position of EE migrants in FI
Last in EE First in FI Last in FI EEManager, senior specialist 16 8 15 16
Specialist 8 8 9 8
Clerk 17 17 17 11
Skilled worker 26 29 29 22
Unskilled worker 7 25 7 7
Not working 26 13 23 36
Total 100 100 100 100
Intends to return from FI to EE
Frequency Percent
Yes 237 24Otherwise 763 76
Intention to return EE by age at migration
Intention to return EE by years lived in FI
Results of the logistic regression, odds ratios (intends to return=1, otherwise=0)
Model 1
Model 2
Model 3
Level of Primary 1.15
1.49
1.51
education Secondary 1
1
1
Tertiary 0.96
1.00
1.03
Type of General 1
1
1
education Vocational 1.37 * 1.41 * 1.43 *
Country of Estonia 1
1
1 education Finland 0.57 *** 1.10
1.11
Overeducation Yes 1.80 *** 1.65 ** 1.62 **
No 1
1
1
Regression continued …
Age at < 20 0.34 *** 0.35 ***migration 20-54 1 1
> 55 2.80 *** 2.85 ***
Years in 0-4 1 1Finland 5-9 0.88 0.89
10-14 0.66 0.72> 15 0.73 0.81
Ethnicity Estonian 1 1Minority 0.29 *** 0.31 ***
Partner Estonia 1 1country Finland 0.42 *** 0.43 ***
Working Yes 1 1No 0.53 *** 0.55 ***
Emigration Income 1.99 **motive Other 1
Robustness checks
Comparability problems with odds ratios across models, groups and samples (Mood 2010) Linear Probability Models were estimated Similar results were obtained
Discussion of the results
Discussion of the results
Return migration intentions by education no differences by level of education people with vocational education wish somewhat more likely to return – education too specific? FI education relates to higher return intention up until we control for age at migration Over-education elevates intentions to return – but U-shape change in the labour market position
Discussion of the results
Other important differences in return intentions EE ethnic minorities want to stay in FI, although Estonians are better integrated in FI Migrants for better income have elevated return migration intentions People out of labour force wish to stay in FI
Thank you!
NORCACE seminar11-13 April 2012, University of Waikato, New Zealand
This study was financially supported by European Social FundEstonian Science Foundation