are our cities still losing human capital?
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Paper presented at the BSPS Annual Conference, University of Kent at Canterbury, 12-14 September 2005. Are our cities still losing human capital? The evidence of the ‘moving group’ data from the 2001 Census Tony Champion and Mike Coombes Centre for Urban & Regional Development Studies - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Paper presented at the BSPS Annual Conference, University of Kent at Canterbury, 12-14 September 2005
Are our cities still losing human capital? The evidence of the ‘moving group’ data
from the 2001 Census
Tony Champion and Mike Coombes
Centre for Urban & Regional Development StudiesUniversity of Newcastle, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU
Tel: +44 (0) 191 222 6437, Email: [email protected]
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Are our cities still losing human capital?
• Introduction: aims & acknowledgements
• Policy and theoretical contexts
• Approach and data source
• Overall migration for 27 Primary Urban Areas
• Migration by NS-SeC of Moving Group Representative Persons
• Concluding comments
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Introduction
• Aims: assess the extent to which cities are attracting and retaining their human capital, especially people in higher-skill occupations
• Acknowledgements: based on research funded by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation Census Programme: project on ‘migration and the socio-economic complexion of communities’
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Policy and theoretical contexts
• Policy context:- strong preference for living in the country- quest for an urban renaissance- the ‘knowledge economy’ as growth driver
• Theoretical context:- key = high-quality labour force (R. Florida)- also issue of local decentralisation- any change since analyses of patterns shown by 1991 Census, e.g.
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Seven conurbations: net within-UK migration, 1990-1991, for 4 social groups
-1.2 -1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2
Greater London
Greater Manchester
Merseyside
South Yorkshire
Tyne & Wear
West Midlands
West Yorkshire
Strathclyde
% residents in group
Prof, manag & technical
Other non-manual
Skilled manual
Other manual
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Approach and data source
Same approach broadly, but no direct comparison 1991-2001 is possible, due to:
• Change in definition of resident population in 2001: students at term-time address
• Change in patterns of underenumeration
• Different method of disclosure control
• New socio-economic classification: NS-SeC replaces SEG
• New measure: ‘moving group’
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National Statistics Socio-economic Classification
1.1 Large employers and higher managerial occupations Higher M&P
1.2 Higher professional occupations
2 Lower managerial and professional occupations Lower M&P
3 Intermediate occupations Intermediate
4 Small employers and own account workers
5 Lower supervisory and technical occupations Lower
6 Semi-routine occupations
7 Routine occupations
L15 Full-time students Full-time students
L14.1 Never worked Other unclassified
L14.2 Long term unemployed
L17 Not classifiable for other reasons
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Moving Group
• ‘Moving group’: One or more people living together on census night who were living together at a different address one year ago
• NB.- no obvious denominator for calculating migration rates (though 2/3 MGs comprise one person only)
• Avoid this issue by concentrating on flow composition (% each type) and in/out ratio (N moving in for each out-migrant)
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SMS1 Table MG109
• NS-SeC is for Representative Persons of Moving Groups (MGRPs)
• MGs are counted only for migrants living in private households, i.e. not in communal estabs
• MGRP can be any age, not just 16-74 of NS-SeC range in Area Tables (can be under 16)
• District-to-district* flow matrix for UK (*in Northern Ireland, Parliamentary Constituencies)
• ‘Cities’ are LA-best-fits to ONS (primary) ‘urban areas’
• Study here is on 27 largest GB ‘cities’ that are Principal Cities of CURDS City Regions
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Overall migration for 27 Primary Urban Areas
To provide context:• Within-UK migration of all persons for the
27 cities• Normal measure: net migration rate (%
residents at census)• In/out ratio: number of in-migrants for each
out-migrant (perfect balance = 1.0, but will express as ‘deviation from unity’ in bar graphs where + = more in than out)
• Results are similar, not identical
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27 cities: net within-UK migration rate, all persons, 2000-2001
-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
Plymouth
Brighton
Southampton
Norwich
Leeds
Portsmouth
Cardiff
Edinburgh
Preston
Bristol
Nottingham
Derby
Leicester
Newcastle
Sheffield
Stoke
Northampton
Liverpool
Glasgow
Manchester
Hull
Coventry
Bradford
Middlesbrough
Reading
Birmingham
London
% residents at census
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27 cities: in/out ratio for within-UK migration, all persons
-0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3
Plymouth
Brighton
Southampton
Norwich
Leeds
Portsmouth
Cardiff
Edinburgh
Preston
Bristol
Nottingham
Derby
Leicester
Newcastle
Sheffield
Stoke
Northampton
Liverpool
Glasgow
Manchester
Hull
Coventry
Bradford
Middlesbrough
Reading
Birmingham
London
deviation from unity
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Relationship between net migration rate and ratio of inflow to outflow, for 27 JRF project cities (within-UK flows only)
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
-1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Net migration rate (% residents)
Rat
io o
f in
flo
w t
o o
utf
low
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Migration by NS-SeC of Moving Group Representative Persons
• Restrict to the 4 broad types of classified MGRPs
• Start with all 27 cities as a single aggregate
• Subdivide by size: London, next 5 largest, the other 21
• Look at the 27 individually
• Bar graphs, with in/out ratio expressed as deviation from unity
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In/out ratio for MGRPs, by broad NS-SeC, for the 27 Cities together
-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
Higher M&P
Lower M&P
Intermediate
Lower occs
FT Student
Other
All MGRPs
deviation from unity
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In/out ratio for classified MGRPs, by broad NS-SeC type, for the 27 Cities grouped
-0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
27 cities
London
5 other large
21 others
deviation from unity
Higher M&P
Lower M&P
Intermediate
Lower occs
OUTFLOW GREATER THAN INFLOW INFLOW GREATER THAN OUTFLOW
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In/out ratio for MGRPs, by broad NS-SeC type, for 27 Cities ranked by 'all classified'
-0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
London
Brighton
Norwich
Bristol
Northampton
Reading
Edinburgh
Portsmouth
Derby
Plymouth
Bradford
Manchester
Preston
Southampton
Glasgow
Leeds
Newcastle
Nottingham
Middlesbrough
Leicester
Cardiff
Hull
Stoke
Birmingham
Liverpool
Sheffield
Coventry
deviation from unity
Higher M&P
Lower M&P
Intermediate
Lower skill
OUTFLOW GREATER THAN INFLOW INFLOW GREATER
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In/out ratio for all classified MGRPs
-0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2
London
Brighton
Norwich
Bristol
Northampton
Reading
Edinburgh
Portsmouth
Derby
Plymouth
Bradford
Manchester
Preston
Southampton
Glasgow
Leeds
Newcastle
Nottingham
Middlesbrough
Leicester
Cardiff
Hull
Stoke
Birmingham
Liverpool
Sheffield
Coventry
deviation from unity
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Main findings
• These 27 large cities are evenly split on net gains and net losses of all persons, with most of the largest being losers
• All 27 together have slight loss of MGRPs: gain of students, lowest IOR for ‘other’, positive link between IOR and 4 SEC levels
• London is major part of latter and is one of only 3 with positive IOR for ‘all classified’
• Majority of cities have negative association between IOR and 4 SEC levels, i.e. lower INs for the higher occups
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Concluding comments
• Aimed to see whether GB’s largest cities are (still*) losing human capital
• Half and half re all persons, but majority picture is of losing ‘classified MGRPs’, especially higher-level occupations
• But picture needs to be interpreted in light of their gains of students (graduating to work locally or moving elsewhere)
• Partly in that context, useful to break down into shorter moves to rest of city region vs longer distance moves to other cities (esp London)
*No direct comparison with 1991 possible
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Paper presented at the BSPS Annual Conference, University of Kent at Canterbury, 12-14 September 2005
Are our cities still losing human capital? The evidence of the ‘moving group’ data
from the 2001 Census
Tony Champion and Mike Coombes
Centre for Urban & Regional Development StudiesUniversity of Newcastle, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU
Tel: +44 (0) 191 222 6437, Email: [email protected]