are we there yet
DESCRIPTION
ZonditsTRANSCRIPT
Headquarters: 120 Water Street, Suite 350, North Andover, MA 01845 With offices in: NY, ME, TX, CA, OR
www.ers-inc.com
ARE WE THERE YET?Determining a Baseline UsingData-Driven Boiler Market Characterization
IEPPEC – BerlinSeptember 2014Presented by Jeff Perkins
04/13/2023
Susan Haselhorst and Isaac Wainstein, ERS, North Andover, MA
Michael Smalec, DNVGL, Middleton CT
Antonio Larson, National Grid, Waltham, MA
AUTHORS
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Getting There Is Half The Fun!
AGENDA
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A program for commercial and industrial natural gas-fired boiler systems for space heating and industrial applications Incentives paid for condensing boilers with
thermal efficiency > 90% • State of Massachusetts code requires 80%
(combustion) Total program savings delivered in 2012
• 25%–50% of prescriptive program: 90–1700 MBH (30–500 kW)
• 15%–25% of custom program: f(size, type, use)
BACKGROUND
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In 2011 there were indications that significant numbers of program eligible boilers were being installed without applying for incentives . . .
HMMMM
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Innovators Early Early Late Laggards adopters majority majority
TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION
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Rogers’ bell curvewww.filosophy.org
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Innovators Early Early Late Laggards adopters majority majority
MARKET SHARE
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0
50
75
25
100
Market sh
are %
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Innovators Early Early Late Laggards adopters majority majority
MARKET TRANSFORMATION
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0
50
75
25
100
Market sh
are %
Are we there yet? Where are we along the curve? Are incentives still needed?
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Ideally we need to determine: How many boilers are sold in the
state?• For replacement• For new construction
How many are high efficiency?
TO FIND AN ANSWER
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We need to know this for: C&I, heating or process, natural gas fired,
across a specific size range And . . .
Nobody has all the information. Some do not want to share what they do have.
Have you ever wondered: How many boilers are in your
state/region/territory? What size are they? How many get replaced in any year?
MORE SPECIFICALLY
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Expert opinion Survey market actors
Ask the gas company Ask the gas company?
WHERE TO LOOK FOR ANSWERS
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HOMOGENEOUS GROUPS
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Limit the boiler size range 90–2000 MBH (30–600 kW) This range covers all of prescriptive and a
large portion of custom Over 40 market actors in the state
20 identified as covering a majority of sales 16 agreed to participate 13 provided useful information
Not homogeneous: gas, oil, propane, biomass, condensing, standard, end use, etc.
SURVEY MARKET ACTORS
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Not everyone is entirely forthright Big players and small players have
different views on the market All of them blur lines by type of system,
type of customer, size ranges (not homogeneous)
We felt we had the market covered, but might there be a hole somewhere?
Lacks an upper bound
Is there a way to bolster this?
SURVEY OBSERVATIONS
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The gas company has monthly billing data. Location and fuel specific Can tease out the heating usage
Coupled with weather data, this becomes a great definition of heating design load
Then just size heating systems to that load
Use existing data sets to make assumptions about percentage of boilers by building type
A “bottom up” approach for a sanity check
ASK THE GAS COMPANY
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Inexpensive way to get a number for the size of the “universe”
Gained tremendous granularity by location and customer type
Needed to make an assumption on replacement rate (1/EUL)
Know nothing about the efficiency of the unit
BOTTOM-UP OBSERVATIONS
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RESULTS
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Surveys BillingFacilities with a natural gas boiler Not known 41,000 sitesReplacements each year Estimate 75% of sales 1900
New construction each year Estimate 25% of sales Not directly known
Total C&I natural gas-fired boilers installed each year
1500–3000 boilers (90–1700 MBH) 2500Assume 25% of market is new
Percentage of the market that meets program eligibility requirements.
25%–75% Cannot be derived
2012 applications for incentives = 675
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THE GOOD AND BAD
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Surveys Billing
Strengths
Specific boiler characteristics (e.g., efficiency)
Expert judgment
Includes estimates of new construction
Best estimate of installed natural gas systems and sizes
Cheap!
Location granularity
Weaknesses Unknown upper bound
Oil vs. gas and also residential vs. nonresidential is ambiguous
No basis for estimating new construction or proportion of high efficiency units
Infer replacements from EUL and boiler vs. non-boiler systems
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Innovators Early Early Late Laggards adopters majority majority
ARE WE THERE YET?
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0
50
75
25
100
Market sh
are %
Where are we?
04/13/2023
THANK YOU!CONTACTS:
Sue HaselhorstSr. [email protected]+1-978-521-2550 x218
Jeff PerkinsSr. Director Project [email protected]+1-978-521-2550 x207
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