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Future Shock? Area Schools Conference Keynote Wellington, 17 August, 2017 [email protected] @dwenmoth

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Future Shock?Area Schools Conference KeynoteWellington, 17 August, 2017

[email protected]


Then NowPopulation 720 570Roll 220 82Industry 3 mills closed

Dairy factory closedKiwifruit closed

Our changing world

Our world is changing and changing rapidly. What must we do to prepare students for living and working in the 21st century? How must our schools and teachers change to meet these opportunities and challenges?

Future Shock

•“Future shock is the shattering stress and disorientation that we induce in individuals by subjecting them to too much change in too short a time.”

•Alvin Toffler

The Future…• Food supply• Water • Cryogenics• Nano-technology

• Superdiversity• Human rights• Poverty• Religious intolerance

Sensors $350K six years ago

Less than $1000 today

$325,000 per kilo in 2013

$12 per kilo in 2017

Neural Lace

•“…an ultra-thin mesh that can be implanted in the skull, forming a collection of electrodes capable of monitoring brain function. It creates an interface between the brain and the machine”

• In 2015 Darrell West of the Brookings Institute wrote about the impact of emerging technologies on employment and public policy in which he cites computerized algorithms and artificial intelligence as key influencers of this change.

• “Economists may be underestimating how fast the robots are coming.

• Robots and intelligent machines threaten to replace workers in industries from finance to retail to haulage, with more than 15 million British jobs and 80 million in the U.S. lost to automation.”

• BOE Chief Economist Andrew Haldane

• While automation will eliminate very few occupations entirely in the next decade, it will affect portions of almost all jobs to a greater or lesser degree, depending on the type of work they entail.

• Automation, now going beyond routine manufacturing activities, has the potential, as least with regard to its technical feasibility, to transform sectors such as healthcare and finance, which involve a substantial share of knowledge work.

• McKinsey Quarterly, July 2016

• “The artificial intelligence revolution and its impact on the US workforce is not even on our radar screen…

• …technology is still 50 to 100 years from displacing human jobs.”

• US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin

Amplification effect

•“Our technological powers increase, but the side effects and potential hazards also escalate.”

•Alvin Toffler




Three Global Forces


7 in 10Will enter the labour

market in jobs that will be automated or lost

60%Training in jobs that willbe radically changed by



1 in 10Service jobs can be performed remotely

750m12-26yrs in Asia-

Pacific region


1 in 3Australians are already in flexible working arrangements

Change in demand for skills









1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 2009

Routine manualNonroutine manualRoutine cognitiveNonroutine analyticNonroutine interpersonal

Mean task input in percentiles of 1960 task distribution

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Source: Autor, David H. and Brendan M. Price. 2013. "The Changing Task Composition of the US Labor Market: An Update of Autor, Levy, and Murnane (2003)." MIT Mimeograph, June.

• What would schools look like?• How would they operate?• What would be the focus of the curriculum?• How would we organise the school day?• What would teachers do?• How would we assess learning?• What would be the role of digital

technologies?• What would we do differently???

But what if all of this really is true?

“We’re still working within the same twentieth-century framework. The thinking hasn’t changed. It’s just couching what we’ve already done in much fancier production values. It looks cooler and more digitised, but the underlying educational objectives have not changed.”

Dr. Jane Gilbert

“if we don’t change the way we are teaching our young people, they will be staggeringly ill-prepared for the future.”

Dr. Jane Gilbert

Changing paradigms

History7000 BC 3000 AD

David Ronfeldt TIMN (Tribal, Institutional, Market, Network)

Changing nature of education provision

In the networked age, our education institutions

must shift from the existing paradigm of operating

in relative isolation (even competition) to being

more collaborative and working as a node on an

education network. Virtual learning services are

expanding internationally, with the development

of virtual schools in many countries.

Thinking like a network• What do the nodes represent? (schools,

students etc.)

• What are the links that connect the nodes? (structural, relational etc.)

• What is activity occurring across the network? (research, resource sharing, teaching, learning, community connections etc.)

Activity (or comms)

Virtual learning networkThe Virtual Learning Network Community (VLNC) is a group of clusters and individuals who choose to operate as a collaborative network, utilising digital technologies in order to enhance the learning outcomes and opportunities for learners (students, teachers, school communities and educators).

COOLs?Effective from January 2020 after the development of an appropriate regulatory framework to protect the education, safety and wellbeing of students… e.g.:

• Students enrolled in more than one institution

• Students managing their own learning record

• Varied roles for educators – facilitators, SMEs,

• Flexibility in terms of the ’learning day’

How might you exploit this opportunity?

Toffler’s vision for schools• Open 24 hours a day

• Customized educational experience

• Kids arrive at different times• Students begin their formalized schooling at different ages

• Curriculum is integrated across disciplines

• Non-teachers work with teachers

• Teachers alternate working in schools and in business world• Local businesses have offices in the schools

• Increased number of charter schools

Think Big!

•“You've got to think about big things while you're doing small things, so that all the small things go in the right direction...”

•Alvin Toffler

[email protected]