argus fmb potash - argusmedia.com · said to include the npk producers petrochina, shandong luxi,...

Copyright © 2013 Argus Media Ltd

Argus FMB PotashFormerly FMB Weekly Potash Report

price guidemarket summary

india books 2.1m mOp this week, more to come

BPC visited India for a further round of talks on 5 February and, as reported in the FMB Update email yesterday, concluded 1 million tonnes firm with IPL (Indian Potash Ltd), the major importer at a price of $427/t cfr including 180 days credit. Indian terms normally include 180 days credit and this would mean a $63/t reduction from BPC’s previous contract. Shipment is over 12 months Feb 2013 to Jan 2014.

This was quickly followed today by Canpotex concluding another ‘approximately 1.1 m’ in total with IPL and Canpotex’s private customers Tata Chemicals Ltd, CIL (Coromandel International Ltd.) and the Zuari Group. The exact split between the four has not been released but FMB believes that the majority will be for the private customers.

ICL/DSW and APC are expected to visit India next week to tie up their contracts and BPC has begun talks with its other customers. There are reports circulating in India that all the importers will book around 3.5 million tonnes MOP for the Feb 2013 to Jan 2014 period but FMB believes that the total will be nearer 4 million.

With the 2.7-3.1 million tonnes MOP to be shipped to China in the first-half together with perhaps 1.5-2.0 out of India’s 3.5-4.0 total, suppliers have a more substantial baseload committed for the next five months. Some buyers in S.E. Asia and elsewhere are already coming back into the market with more confidence that the erosion in spot prices has stopped and even will be reversed.

The saga continues on Vale SA’s $6 bn Rio Colorado potash project. After meetings with the state and national authorities this week, Vale has been given an extension until the end of this month to submit details of its plans for the project in Mendoza, Argentina (see Company News section later in this report).

Highlights this week

▪ India books 2.1m MOP contracts from BPC and Canpotex...

▪ ...and more to come, totalling 3.5-4.0m.

▪ The total of spot sales in SE Asia continues to rise.

▪ Update on local prices, stats and contracts in China.

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Braz

il $/t

310

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380

NW Europe Euro/t

MOP Brazil MOP NW Europe

granular mOp cfr bulk

potash fertilizer prices $/t

contract spot

mOp – fob standard bulk

Vancouver fob (+$10-25) 370**-380*** 400*-430*

NW Europe fob (+$10-25) 360*** 390*-420*

FSU fob (+$10-25) 360***-370** 390*-410*

Jordan fob (+$10-25) 375*** 400*-420*

Israel fob (+$10-25) 375*** 400*-420*

S.E. Asia cfr (+$15-20) 450*

India cfr 180 days (na) 427

(premium for granular MOP)

mOp – cfr granular bulk

Brazil cfr cash 440*-460*

Europe cfr, € **** 345*-358*

sOp – fob bulk

US Gulf fob (+$20-25) 595-600*

NW Europe fob, € (+€15-20) 415-430*

(premium for granular SOP)

* - Indicative price

** - Estimated netback from cfr contracts in India

*** - Estimated netback from cfr contracts in China

**** - this price for France/Benelux. Others as much as €375

An Argus Media companyView the methodology used to assess potash prices at

www.argusmedia.com/methodology. Your feedback is always welcome at [email protected].

argus fmb potash

Issue 13-06 Thursday 7 February 2013

Copyright © 2013 Argus Media Ltd of 9

Argus FMB Potash Issue 13-06 | Thursday 7 February 2013

▪ CPO prices rise in the futures market.

▪ BPC sale of gMOP to Thailand at $465/t cfr.

▪ Latest prices in Vietnam.

▪ Port delays still long in Paranagua, Brazil...

▪ ...and Carnival holidays about to begin.

▪ Ege Gubre in Turkey in the market for standard MOP.

▪ Latest prices in South Africa.

▪ Company News: Vale given until end-Feb to submit new plan for Argentine project; Encanto Potash and Allana Potash both report positive feasibility studies; Western Potash announces Saskatchewan Ministry has started 30 day public review on the Environmental Impact Statement.

asia

Sales are steadily growing in the SE Asian region at the new prices of $450 and $465/t cfr for standard and granular MOP, respectively. BPC has recorded a new sale of 10,000t to Thailand this week to add to Canpotex’s sales of 30-40,000t reported last week. Between them they now have about 300,000t and BPC is understood to be close to finalising some more. The news of the contracts in India has sparked more interest.

india As noted in the Market Summary above, the BPC delegation in India had a further round of talks on 5 February and concluded 1 million tonnes firm with Indian Potash Ltd, the major importer at a price of $427/t cfr including 180 days credit. Indian terms normally include 180 days credit and this would mean a $63/t reduction from BPC’s previous contract. Shipment is over 12 months February 2013 to January 2014. The full text of the announcement was:

“JSC “Belarusian Potash Company” (BPC) - the exclusive distributor of potash fertilizers of JSC “Belaruskali” (Soligorsk, Belarus) and JSC “Uralkali” (Perm Territory, Russia) on foreign markets and the leading world exporter of the product, has concluded a contract with Indian Potash Ltd (IPL) - the largest Indian importer of mineral fertilizers, on MOP deliveries in 2013.

The delivery price of potash fertilizers for India has been set at $427/ton on CFR basis. The deliveries of the product under the new contractual terms are to begin in February 2013 and will continue till January 2014. BPC deliveries under the contract with IPL will total 1 million tons.

Supplying over 60% of potash, demanded in India, IPL is the strategic partner of BPC. The companies’ constructive relations in many respects stipulate BPC’s position in the market of India.

Valery Ivanov, BPC CEO, said “We are pleased that a new contract with our Indian partners has been signed supporting stability on the Indian market, which is traditionally viewed as a strategically important area for us. The agreement reflects the interests of both the potash producers and importers, as well as end users of potash - Indian farmers as they contribute to the development of the world agriculture.We strongly believe that the agreement bringing us one step forward in restoring potash demand will influence positively both the domestic and global potash market in the nearest time.””

This was quickly followed today by Canpotex concluding another ‘approximately 1.1 m’ in total with IPL and Canpotex’s private customers Tata Chemicals Ltd, CIL (Coromandel International Ltd.) and the Zuari Group. The exact split between the four has not been released but FMB believes that the majority will be for the private customers.

http://www.europeanmachinetrading.com/



As reported in the FMB Update email earlier today the full text of Canpotex’s announcement was:

Canpotex Limited (Canpotex) announces that “it has reached agreement with its government and private sector customers in India to supply approximately 1.1 million tonnes of potash for shipment up to January, 2014 at a price of US$ 427.00 per tonne on a CFR basis.

Steven Dechka, Canpotex’s President and Chief Executive Officer, stated that this agreement demonstrates the continued importance Canpotex places on the Indian market and on supporting its loyal and long-term customer base in that market.

“We are very pleased to sign supply contracts with our long-term Indian customers, and to continue our history of being a leading supplier to this important market. We look forward to meeting India’s future growing potash needs in collaboration with our Indian partners,” stated Dechka.

Dechka also stated that Canpotex will continue to collaborate with its Indian customers in implementing new market development programs in India, designed to

provide Indian farmers with the educational tools needed to improve yields through balanced fertilization and best management practices.”

As noted in the Market Summary above, ICL/DSW and APC are expected to visit India next week to tie up their contracts and BPC has begun talks with its other customers. There are reports circulating in India that all the importers will book around 3.5 million tonnes MOP for the Feb 2013 to Jan 2014 period but FMB believes that the total will be nearer 4 million.

china Chinese New Year celebration start next week so this market will be quiet.

The ex-warehouse prices for Russian red MOP in northern ports are reported locally to be Rmb 2,570-2,600/t ($408-413 at current exchange rates) while white MOP is around Rmb 2,700/t ($429). Russian product being railed acroos the border with China are now said to be around Rmb 2,450-2,500/t ($389-397) for red and Rmb 2,480-2,550/t ($394-405) for white.

argus fmb potash sales selection

product Origin seller buyer destination ’000t $/t bulk shipment

potash

Canada Canpotex 4 companies India 1100sMOP Feb'13-Jan'14 Feb'13-Jan'14

FSU BPC IPL India 1000sMOP 427 cfr 180d Feb'13-Jan'14

FSU BPC n.a. Thailand 10gMOP 465 cfr Feb

Germany K+S Kali n.a. China sMOP c.400 cfr Jan-Jun

Canada Canpotex n.a. 'S.E. Asia' 35s/gMOP 450/465 cfr Jan/Feb

FSU BPC Pequiven Venezuela 25s/gMOPc.445/mid-450s cfr

Feb

FSU BPC n.a. L. America 49s/gMOPc.445/mid-450s cfr

Jan/Feb

Jordan APC n.a. Philippines 5sMOP 450 cfr Feb

Canada Canpotex contracts Japan s/gMOP av.over $470 cfr Jan-Jun

Canada Canpotex n.a. 'S.E. Asia'165s/gMOP

450/465 cfr Jan/Feb

Israel ICL various China 660sMOP c.400 cfr Jan-Jun

Jordan APC Sinofert China 250sMOP c.400 cfr Jan-Jun

FSU BPC CNAMPGC/Sin China 700sMOP 400 cfr Jan-Jun

Canada Canpotex Sinofert China 1m MOP 400 cfr Jan-Jun



Of the 6,342,140t MOP imported during January-December 2012 by China according to the statistics we published two weeks ago, it is understood that around 2,300,000t was imported across the border with Russia by rail.

Qinghai Salt Lake Potash announced new MOP prices last month. Delivered prices for MOP with 60% K2O are Rmb 2,680/t ($425) for powder and Rmb 2,720/t ($432) for granular, a reduction of RMB 230-270/t

ICL’s contracts for 660,000 tons reported two weeks ago are said to include the NPK producers PetroChina, Shandong Luxi, Hebei Yangfeng, Sino-Arab Chemical, Xiyang Group, Lubei Chemical and the provincial distributors Shanghai AMPC, Zhejiang AMP and Guangdong AMPC.

malaysia CPO (Crude Palm Oil) prices on the futures market have moved up by Ringgits 150/t this week to around 2,550, after running at around Ringgits 2,400 during most of January. The improvement was said to have been due to dry weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina’s soyabean producing regions, plus higher crude oil prices.

Both Canpotex and BPC are still understood to be firm on no new sales of standard MOP at less than $450/t cfr Malaysia. However, there is no buying interest at the moment.

thailand BPC has concluded the sale of 10,000t granular MOP for shipment to this market in February. The price is understood to be at the $465/t cfr level.

snapsHOt - wOrld pOtasH prices/netbacks

sMOP spot$400-430/t fob

Vancouver

gMOP spot$425-430/st fob

barge Nola

gMOP spot€345-358/t cfr

Benelux

gMOP spot$440-460/t cfr

BrazilgMOP spot

$480-495s/t cfr S. Africa

sMOP spot$400-420/t fob

Middle EastsMOP contract

$400/t cfr China 1st-Half 2013

sMOP contract$427/t cfr Indiainc. 180 days

smOp = standard gmOp = granular

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550MOP SE Asia MOP Vancouver

standard mOp cfr cOmparisOn



Vietnam In HoChiMinh, the latest prices ex-warehouse in bags are understood to be unchanged so far since December at around the following:

Israel $535/tCanada $555/tRussia $540/t

This is because plenty of product has been booked and is still arriving at last year’s prices. For example a cargo from Belarus arrived mid-January with about 9,000t each of standard and granular MOP at around $510 and $525/t cfr HoChiMinh, with another 9,700t standard MOP discharged in the last week of January at Quy Nhon Port at $510 also.

There are reports that small quantities of MOP from Laos arrived as follows: Nov 2012 : 3.000t at $425/t cfrDec 2012: 1,500t at $430$/t cfrJan 2013: 3,000t at $460/t cfr

latin america

brazil Carnival in Brazil is due to start on 9 February so this market is already winding down. There does not seem to have been a huge rush for tonnes before then. No business is known to have concluded as yet at BPC’s new prices for March loadings of granular MOP at $450/t cfr for big buyers (then rising to $465 for April). As reported last week, other suppliers are claiming to have stopped offering product at less than $450/t even for February.

There are still long waiting times for vessels to get on the berths at Paranagua to discharge their cargo. The worst continues to be the main commercial berth with 36-38 days, adding substantial demurrage costs. The other two berths are better but still ten days or more. Ponta do Felix/Antonina is 12-14 days, while the Fospar terminal is 10-12 days.

Observers point out that importers need to spread the arrival of fertilizer cargoes as much as possible from now onwards. Demand in the main soybean area, Matto Grosso, is expected to be huge like last year and fertilizers such as MOP and NPKs need to arrive by June/July at the latest. There could be a two or three month lead time from loading the cargo to arriving in Matto Grosso.

cuba In the freight market, there is an enquiry circulating for 17,000t MOP prompt loading out of Klaipeda for shipment to one or two ports Cuba.

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granular mOp cfr brazil

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nOrtH america

united states Pricing of granular MOP at Nola is flat at $425-430/st fob barge Nola ($468-474 per metric tonne) with a confirmed transaction at $425. Buyers are still a little nervous that the price might come down further perhaps eyeing Brazil where buyers are paying perhaps $10-20 per tonne less on a cfr basis. However, Brazilian prices are targetted to rise in the next few weeks. Offtake of nitrogen has been healthy and hopefully this will eventually transfer to potash and phosphates when prices are clearer.

Those upriver in the Corn Belt have also not shown signs of changing since last week and are put in the range $460-465/st fot ex-terminal ($507-512/tonne) but again there is little movement.

eurOpe

There has been no change to our report last week for northern Europe. It has been very cold and wet in a number of countries so little in the way of pre-season sales have been made. Similarly, there is be little or no application by farmers for the moment. Application normally starts in February or March.

spain Progress is slow on Fertiberia’s requirement for three cargoes of fine standard MOP totalling 20,000t to be shipped in Feb/March. It has yet to accept €330/cfr for standard MOP. The shipments might be deferred until March according to some sources.

italy Following the freight enquiries by APC and ICL reported last week, BPC also has one: It is for 7,000t MOP loading 5-7 Feb at Klaipeda for shipment to Piombino.

turkey Ege Gubre has been in the market for the usual size of 4-6,000t standard MOP. Offers of around $435-440/t cfr were turned down. It is not clear if the cargo went to a lower offer.

africa

south africa Price ideas for granular MOP are said to have eased to $480-495/t cfr in this market with major buyers able to obtain the low end of this range.

K+S Kali hopes to conclude another shipment in March after the 10,000t in February.

cOmpany news

brazil argentina The Brazilian company Vale sa has been given an extension until the end of this month to submit details of its plans for its Rio Colorado project in Mendoza, Argentina. Vale suspended work there on 22 December for the Christmas holidays but has not called the workers back since then. This lead to reports that it might be deferring the project indefinitely as part of a general cutback on capital investment, which Vale has since denied. The govenor of Mendoza province, Francisco Perez, had threatened to revoke Vale’s mining concession to develop the project if it did not come up with a working plan by 4 February.

The project was originally schedule to come on-strean in 2014 with an initial capacity of 2.4 million tpa and subsequently expanded to 4.3m.

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Argentine President Cristina Fernandez turned down a request by Vale to cut or defer taxes in exchange for maintaining Rio Colorado’s timeline but in a meeting this week between Vale and the state and national authorities some possibilities of saving expenditure on the rail link from the mine were raised. Instead of building a new 900km track, it is mooted that extensions and renovations to existing track could be evaluated.

canada On 4 February, encanto potash corp. announced “the completion of an independent positive Pre-Feasibility Study (the “PFS”) prepared by Novopro Projects Inc. (“Novopro”) for the Muskowekwan property (the “Project”) in southern Saskatchewan.

The PFS confirms that the Project has significant positive economics and that the resource is of sufficient size as well as grade to support primary and secondary mining for over 50 years with Muriate of Potash production rate of 2.8 million tons per annum.

The PFS’ Economic Model for the Project generated an Internal Rate of Return of 19.1% (20.4% before taxes) and a Net Present Value of $3.63 billion ($4.47 billion before taxes) yielding a Project payback period of 5.0 years. A list of assumptions used in the model are shown in Table 1 below:

Table 1: Summary of Financial Model Realized Potash Price (FOB Vancouver) $460/t standard$485/t granular Discount Rate 10% Inflation Rate 2% OPEX at full capacity $54.32/t(includes utilities, labour, maintenance, reagents, fuel, insurances and municipal taxes)Sustaining capital cost $32.21/t (includes brine field and Tailing Management Area extensions) Logistics Costs (rail and port) $50.50/t Taxes and Royalties $64.76/t (includes Potash Production Tax, Crown Royalty and Saskatchewan Resource Surcharge, average over the life of the project)Initial CAPEX $2.86 billion(includes contingency and escalation) Deferred CAPEX $130 million All CAPEX and OPEX costs are in $CAD, revenues are in $USUS to CAD exchange assumed as 1. Annual Production rate 2.8 Mt of K62 grade potash (98% KCl) Construction Start Date Q2 2014 Mine Start up Q1 2017 Lifespan of Project 50 years +

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Jim Walchuck, Encanto’s President and CEO commented:

“This pre-feasibility study confirms the economic robustness of the Muskowekwan Project and highlights our flagship property as an attractive potash project. This is a major milestone in the Company’s intention to develop the Muskowekwan Project into a significant producing potash mine. I would like to express the Company’s sincere appreciation to the Company’s employees and consultants who worked on the study and made it possible to move the Project towards the next stage of its development.”

Capital and Operating cost estimates were generated with a target accuracy of ±20%, typical for this level of study. The initial CAPEX estimate for the plant is $2.86 billion and includes estimates for water supply, gas pipeline and a Cogeneration plant and includes a contingency and escalation of $460 million.

The Operating costs were estimated at $54.32/t at full production capacity. This number includes utilities, labour, maintenance, reagents (including fuel), insurances and municipal taxes. It does not include Royalties, Potash Production Taxes or Federal/Provincial Income taxes which are estimated at $64.76/t. The logistical costs estimates of $50.50/t were provided by existing carriers and port facilities with capacity to serve this Project. Sustaining Capital costs were estimated at $32.21/t at full production and include well field extension, and Tailing Management Area (TMA).

Novopro is a Canadian based project development and implementation company servicing the mining and metallurgical industries, specialising in the potash sector with industry leading expertise in solution mining related projects.” More details are at www.encantopotash.com

Encanto also announced “the commencement of the environmental assessment process for the Muskowekwan Project, a joint venture between Encanto and the Muskowekwan First Nation and Muskowekwan Resources Limited to develop a potash mine on Muskowekwan lands in Saskatchewan.

The joint venture formally initiated the environmental assessment process by submitting a Project Description/Technical Proposal to the Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency and the Saskatchewan Ministry of Environment on December 7, 2012.”

canada ethiopia On 4 February, allana potash announced “positive feasibility study at its Danakhil Potash Project:

Highlights•After-tax Net Present Value of US $1.32 billion, based on lower price expectations in current potash markets•After-tax Internal Rate of Return of 33%•Production capital expenditures including mining and processing facilities (“Production CAPEX”) of US$579 million•Port and logistics infrastructure (“Infrastructure CAPEX”) of US $63 million•Total CAPEX Contingencies of US$64 million included in the Production and Infrastructure CAPEX estimates•Total production operating expenditures (“Production OPEX”) of US$69.25/tonne•Total transportation expenditures (“Transportation OPEX”) (including transportation/handling, port, loading costs) FOB on Vessel of US$29.50/tonne•Based on Annual Production of one million tonnes of MOP per year using solution mining from Proven and Probable Sylvinite Mineral Reserves only•Significant Carnallitite or Kainitite resources not included in the production plans in this Feasibility Study

Allana’s Board of Directors is pleased to congratulate the people and government of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia on the receipt by Allana of the first NI 43-101-compliant feasibility study on a potash resource in Ethiopia’s Danakhil potash basin that defines one of the few economically viable greenfield potash projects in the world.

The FS is based on commercial operations that produce one million tonnes per year (“MTPY”) of a standard grade Muriate of Potash (“MOP”) product over an initial estimated operating life of approximately 25 years from Sylvinite Reserves at Allana’s Danakhil Project in Ethiopia. The FS yielded, on an unlevered basis, an after-tax Internal Rate of Return (“IRR”) of 33 % and an after-tax Net Present Value (“NPV”) of US$ 1.32 billion based on a 10% discount rate.

Farhad Abasov, President and CEO of Allana commented: “Allana is extremely pleased with the very positive Feasibility Study of its Danakhil Potash Project, as prepared by ERCOSPLAN. Even with current potash market realities driving the lower potash price forecast of USD $430/tonne used in the FS, the favourable total production CAPEX of about US$579 million and port and transport CAPEX of US$63 million, make this project one of the lowest cost and potentially highest return greenfield potash projects worldwide. Similarly, the very competitive production OPEX at US$69.25/tonne, within a total, loaded-on-ship, OPEX of US$98.75/tonne FOB, is one of the lowest among greenfield potash projects currently under development.”

Mr. Abasov added, “ERCOSPLAN modeled the production of one million tonnes of MOP from just the Sylvinite Zone on the project, excluding future potential production from the extensive Carnallite and sulphate-based Kainite resources.

Fertilizer

illuminating the markets


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disclaimerThe data and other information published herein (the “Data”) are provided on an “as is” basis. Argus makes no warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness, or completeness of the Data or fitness for any particular purpose. Argus shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from any party’s reliance on the Data and disclaims any and all liability related to or arising out of use of the Data to the full extent permissible by law.

The FS’s extremely positive results give Allana great confidence in advancing its project to development and securing project finance and offtake.”Fuller details are on www.allanapotash.com

canada On 5 February, western potash corp. announced that “the Saskatchewan Ministry of Environment (the “MOE”) has initiated the 30 day public review phase on the Environmental Impact Statement (“EIS”) for the proposed Milestone Solution Potash Mine (the “Milestone Project”). A draft EIS was submitted to the MOE on August 31, 2012 and is the culmination of over two years of environmental data collection, analysis and reporting. Following a review by Government technical reviewers, Western Potash finalized the EIS and submitted it to the MOE in late January 2013. The EIS will now be available from the MOE for public review and comment, starting on February 4, 2013. Following the public review period the Minister of Environment will provide an Environmental Assessment decision regarding the Milestone Project. Western Potash Corp anticipates this decision in quarter 1 of 2013. Project construction permitting can be initiated assuming a positive decision from the MOE.”

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