Phoenix Vision Consultant Group

Argus Media Conference Europe Fertilizer Barcelona 18-20 OCT 2017

Update on Iranian Production and Impact on Global Fertilizer Trade

CCivilization and Agriculture

The first foods were mostly coming through Animals, by Hunting.

The problem was that they ancient people have to change the places to hunt.

CCivilization and Agriculture

Once the people begun planting they could settle down permanently and then thinking of civilization

Civilization is based on agriculture and once the people thought of planting in high amount

HHistory of Agriculture • The first Agriculture plant on

earth in Chogha Golan • It is almost 10,000 Years ago

that people began planting and providing their food and one of the giant step to make the civilization

SSome Highlights of Iran Agriculture Ranking

Ranking in World

1st Saffron, Pistachio, Caviar, Berries , Pomegranate

2nd Date and Apricot

3rd Watermelon, Cherry, Cantaloupe, Apple, walnut and Cucumbers

4th Almonds, Lamb, Wool and Quince

5th Pea, Vegetables and Fennel

6th Nuts, Caw milk and Tomato

7th Grape, Onion, Black Cherry, Sheep Milk and Kiwi

Iran Agricultural development

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Mill

ion

Tons

/ Ye

ar

year

Agricultural Production

Agricultural Production

10% Average Growth

Iran Fertilizer Industries

Iran Fertilizer installed capacity

Fertilizer Product KTPY No. of operating Units

Urea 5400 7

Ammonia 4530 8

DAP 450 2

Ammonium Nitrate 215 1

Ammonium Sulphate 27 1

Nitrogen based Fertilizer

Local Production Capacity (Urea)

6500

2000 1500 1700 1700

6500

2000 1500

4700

1700

9750

2000 1500

4700

1700

PARDIS KERMANSHAH KHORASAN SHIRAZ RAZI

Tone

s /Da

y Operating Company Capacity

2015 2016 2017

Local Production Capacity (Ammonia)

4100

1200 1000

1300

4050 4100

1200 1000

3350

4050

6150

1200 1000

3350

4050

PARDIS KERMANSHAH KHORASAN SHIRAZ RAZI

Tone

s /Da

y Operating Company Capacity

2015 2016 2017

Export and local consumption in 2015 (Urea)

Local 32%

Export 68%

Total : 3,999,000 MTPY Total : 2,704,200 MTPY

India 64%

Turkey 12%

Iraq 10%

Afghanistan

7%

Brazil 3%

other4%

Local – Export Balance Export Targets

Based on Iran Chamber of Commerce Export Statistics

Export and local consumption in 2015 (Ammonia)

Local 36%

Export 64%

Total : 1,299,000 MTPY Total : 831,200 MTPY

India 86%

Taiwan 14%

Turkey 0%

Local – Export Balance Export Targets

Based on Iran Chamber of Commerce Export Statistics

Operation Ratio

89.72 90.62

81.63

92.8

95.65

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Operation ratio

Extracted from NPC annual Report, based on capacities

722889.72 90.62990.62

81.6381.63

Unstable Feedstock

• This is the Average ratio considering the capacities as Wight factor.

• Up to 2014 the Feedstock was not stable so the ratio is not operation ratio.

• In 2014 and 2015 considering the 4.42 MTPY the plants could not gain about 80-100 Million USD each year.

Urea Consumption in Iran

The Consumption of Urea / Hectare • Iran is the first place on the planet that agriculture has

been done, as a human activity. • 12% of the grounds is now using for agriculture means

200,000 Km2 (which is around 5 times of The Netherland).

• The consumption of Urea is around 65 Kg / Hectare, means almost 30Kg of Nitrogen per Hectare is almost 1/3 of average consumption of Urea (1/10 of Egypt).

• The expectation is around 3-5 % growth / year.• The total market could increase to 4 Milion MT/year.

With in next 10-15 years.

Future Project Perspective

1075 1075 1180

1075

660

1075

1075

1075

1075

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2017 2018 2019 2020

KTPY

YEAR

Approved Project Pardis 3 Lordegan Hengam MIS Kermanshah Hormuz Zanjan Golestan Lavan • Pardis 3 is almost

finished and going for Commissioning.

• Lordegan and MIS has got Chinese Financing.

• Hengam is using local financing and PGPIC support.

• Zanjan has got the finance from National Development Found.

• Other 4 Projects are looking for Financing Scheme which are under negotiation

Total Projects : 9,365,000 Tons/Year

Urea Local Consumption

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Tone

s per

yea

r Urea Local Consumption

Urea Local consumption

Urea Local Outlook

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Tone

s per

yea

r Urea Local Consumption

Consumption Production

Potash based Fertilizer

Potash Mine in shape of Chloride is available in the country

Khoor & Biabanak

Potash Mine in shape of Chloride is available in the country

Potash Local Consumption

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Tone

s Per

Yea

r

Potash Local Consumption / Production

Consumption Production

Potash Local Outlook

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Tone

s Per

yea

r Potash Local Consumption / Production

Consumption Production

Phosphate based Fertilizer

Phosphate Local Consumption

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Tone

s Per

yea

rs

Phosphate Local Consumption / Production

Consumption Production

Phosphate Outlook

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Tone

s Per

yea

r Potash Local Consumption / Production

Consumption Production

Sulfur added Fertilizer

Sulfur Production

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2013 2014 2015 2016

Mill

ion

Tone

s Per

yea

r

Production Local consumption

Sulfur Local Outlook

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Mill

ion

Tone

s Per

yea

r

Production Local consumption

Sulfur added fertilizer • Although there is high production of Sulfur in the country, There are not

too much production of Ammonium Sulfate and Potassium Sulfate. • The Capacity of Ammonium Production is 27 KTPY • The Capacity of Potassium Sulfate is almost 5 KTPY

Value added Fertilizer

Value added Fertilizer in Iran • Few companies recently are producing NPK and other valued added Fertilizers

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

2016 2017 2018 2019

Tone

s per

yea

r

Axis Title

Value added Fertilizer

Value added Fertilizer

Conclusion

Nitrogen Fertilizer

Potash Fertilizer

Phosphate Fertilizer

Value added Fertilizer

Conclusion • For the N the country is not only self-sufficient but also exporting . Thanks to cheap feed stock

this section is still growing. • For the K the market will be self-sufficient in later years, due to good Potash resource this

section has ability for development. • For the P, which is most suitable nutrient for the Soil of country there are some mining needs

to be developed, the demand for P will increasing every year by at least 20%. • Few amount of advanced Fertilizer like NPK is importing, some mixing companies are providing

production in this section, but needs much more investment and import as well. • Due to availability of Resources , the best solution could be providing the production

technologies in land and local production, which financing of the projects will be a challenge

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