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IPv4AddressesExhaus0on,

notonlywheniscri0cal

ArturoServn

LACNIC

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Allstarted

WheninLACNICwerealizedthatwewillnotgetmoreIPv4addressspacefromIANA

AndwedecidedtopublishhowmuchIPv4addressspacewehadle

Then,wewerecuriousofwhenthisspacewasgoingtorunout

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Thenumbers

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AvailableToday

AddressesAvailableToday 631616

Availabletoday/8 3.764724731

ReserveLast/1(policy) -.25

GlobalPolicy 1

TotalNumberofAddresses 4.5152/8=75,744,512addresses

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MontlhyAddressAlloca0ons

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

200501

200505

200509

200601

200605

200609

200701

200705

200709

200801

200805

200809

200901

200905

200909

201001

201005

201009

Total/8

Total/8

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Annualized

(36months)

.2

.4

.6

.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

200711

200712

200801

200802

200803

200804

200805

200806

200807

200808

200809

200810

200811

200812

200901

200902

200903

200904

200905

200906

200907

200908

200909

200910

200911

200912

201001

201002

201003

201004

201005

201006

201007

201008

201009

201010

201011

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So,weknowhowmuchwehave

andhowmuchweuse,solets

makesomenumbers

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UsageProjec0ons

.5

1

1.5

22.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

201

009

201

012

201

103

201

106

201

109

201

112

201

203

201

206

201

209

201

212

201

303

201

306

201

309

201

312

201

403

Polin.Mod.

Log.Mod.

Lin.Mod.

Exp.Mod.

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Itappearsthatwewillhaveaddresses

foralmost4moreyears.

Butthereismoretoitthanwhen

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Availabilityvs.Accessibility

t

AvailabilityofIPv4

Addressesspace

Difficulty(andcost)

OfgengIPv4

addresses

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ModelingDifficulty

Wemodeldifficultyasfunc0onofthenumberofrequirementstoapplyfornewaddressspaceandtheamountofaddressesthataRIRmemberwouldbeabletogetperyear

Requirementsare:Morestrictalloca0onspolicies

Amongthemallowingonlyoneaddressrequestofaspecificsizeperyear

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ExperimentalDifficulty

.5

1

1.52

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Ja

n-11

May-11

Se

p-11

Ja

n-12

May-12

Se

p-12

Ja

n-13

May-13

Se

p-13

Ja

n-14

May-14

Se

p-14

Experimental

Difficulty

IPv4remaining

space

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ExperimentalDifficulty

.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

IPv4+Dif

IPv4

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UncertaintyFactor

LinealProjec0on

Lowuncertaintyfactor

Highuncertaintyfactor

213

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Whatisuncertainty?

Anewtechnologydemandingconnec0vity,ergoanincreaseinIPv4addressesrequests

MobiledevicesTransi0onmechanismstoIPv6

Rushshopping

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ExperimentalUncertaintyFactor

.5

1

1.5

22.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-12

Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

IPv4Disrup

IPv4+Disr

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Alltogether

.5

1

1.5

22.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-12

Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

IPv4

All

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Asseen,projec0onmaybe

difficult,look

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NewProjec0on(Dec21)

.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

201009

201012

201103

201106

201109

201112

201203

201206

201209

201212

201303

201306

201309

201312

201403

Lin.Model

Orig

Real+Lin

ModelData

Nov.

Itmoved

lein

October

Itmoved

rightin

November

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Conclusions

ModelingtheIPv4addressexhaus0onisnoteasy,butthatisnotasurprise

Closemonitoringiscrucialifwewanttoreacttochangesintheecosystem

Modelingshortperiodsof0meseemstobeasensibleapproach,butthenRIRsneedto

openuptheirstatsaboutstockand

alloca0on

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Conclusions(cont.)

Knowingthewhenisimportant,buthowthepredic0onchangesandwhyis

alsocri0cal

Alloca0onpoliciescanextendthelifeoftheRIRpoolbutatacostofavailability

Newtechnologiesandrushshoppingmaysignificantlyaffecttheexhaus0onmodel

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Sleep0ght

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

20050

1

20050

4

20050

7

20051

0

20060

1

20060

4

20060

7

20061

0

20070

1

20070

4

20070

7

20071

0

20080

1

20080

4

20080

7

20081

0

20090

1

20090

4

20090

7

20091

0

20100

1

20100

4

20100

7

20101

0

20110

1

APNIC

RIPEARIN

LACNIC

Afrinic

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Thankyou!

aservin@lacnic.net

Twier:@the_real_r2d2