arpa-e perform workshop · cloudy/slight rain • maximum net import was 9,820 mw • max hourly...
TRANSCRIPT
California ISO - Public Page 1
ARPA-E Perform Workshop
Operational Challenges and Potential Opportunities Transitioning to a Low Carbon Grid
Clyde Loutan: Principal Renewable Energy Integration
W Hotel – Union squareNew York
June 17-18, 2019
California ISO - Public Page 2
California is aggressively pursuing a low carbon future
• Aggressive renewable energy goals
Decarbonization is creating opportunities to develop a
high renewables and high DER energy service industry
33% by 2020 60% by 2030
• Deep greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction goals
2020 TargetReduce GHG emissions
to 1990 levels
2030 Target40% below 1990 levels
2050 Target80% below 1990 levels
• Robust electric vehicles goal: 1.5 million by 2025
100% zero-carbon by 2045
• 12,000 MW of distributed generation by 2020;
• 1.3 GW of battery storage by 2024
California ISO - Public Page 3
CAISO’s current real time operational challenges
• Intra-hour ramps can be greater than ± 6,000 MW in some hours
• Maximum 3-hour ramps greater than 15,000 MW during sunset
• 10-minute variability between ±1,000 MW and ± 1,500 MW
– Dispatch decisions for the binding 5-minute interval could be off by ± 1,500 MW
• Depleting regulation procured in some hours
• Oversupply conditions continues to increase
• Experiencing control performance challenges during sunrise and sunset and the middle of the day on weekends
• During spring, cannot commit enough gas units on governor control to meet primary frequency response obligation --- especially under hydro spill conditions
California ISO - Public Page 4
Actual net load vs. minimum non-dispatchable resources that’s needed for controllability through 2024
2013 (Actual)
2015 (Actual)
2016 (Actual)
2018 (Actual)
2019 (Actual)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
MW
Actual Net Load For A Typical Spring Day
Nuclear Geothermal Biogas Small Hydro Dispatchable Wind
Solar 2013 (Actual) 2015 (Actual) 2016 (Actual) 2018 (Actual) 2019 (Actual)
California ISO - Public Page 5
January 14-17, 2019 the hourly solar production was low due to cloud cover while gas gen and imports filled the gap
1/14/2019
• Weather: Cloudy/slight rain
• Maximum net import was 9,820 MW
• Max hourly solar production was 1,970 MW
• Maximum simultaneous wind/solar was about 3,800 MW and occurred during HE11
• Maximum thermal generation was about 12,000 MW
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1/12/2019 1/13/2019 1/14/2019 1/15/2019 1/16/2019 1/17/2019 1/18/2019
MW
Generation Breakdown --- Jan 12 through Jan 18, 2019
Nuclear Geo/Biomass/Biogas Thermal Hydro Net Interchange Wind Solar Load Net Load
California ISO - Public Page 6
In comparison May 19-25 solar production combined with hydro production required minimum thermal production
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5,000
10,000
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20,000
25,000
30,000
5/19/2019 5/20/2019 5/21/2019 5/22/2019 5/23/2019 5/24/2019 5/25/2019
MW
Generation Breakdown --- May 19 through May 25, 2019
Nuclear Geo/Biomass/Biogas Thermal Hydro Net Interchange Wind Solar Load Net Load
During Hydro Spill Conditions
• Rely on gas fleet for most ancillary services
• Typically operate gas fleet at low operating levels to minimize over supply
• Committed gas fleet cannot provide adequate primary frequency response obligation
• Need renewable resources to provide essential grid services
California ISO - Public Page 7
Hourly load and solar change for January through March 2019
• During sunrise, while solar is ramping up, load is still dropping off partly due to roof-top solar PV
• Recommend imposing a maximum ramp rate limit on all new solar resources at 10% of Pmax/min
• May have to impose a MW/hour limit on aggregated solar production during sunrise due to high ACE and frequency
• During sunset, load is increasing while solar production is decreasing, which drives the 3-hour upward ramping needs
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Load/S
ola
r 1-H
our
Change (
MW
)
Load/Solar Hourly Change --- January through March 2019
Load 1-Hour Change Solar 1-Hour Change Solar
California ISO - Public Page 8
• Maximum renewable curtailment was 4,789 MW
• Total curtailment of renewables was 31,989 MWh
• Maximum net export was 2,359 MW
• Max EIM export was 4,150 MW
• The CAISO continued to curtail solar during sunset, which helped in reducing the 3-hour upward ramp
• Max simultaneous wind & solar production was 11,598 MW at 14:36
0
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6,000
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20,000
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24,000
26,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
MW
Generation Breakdown --- 04/21/2019
Nuclear Geothermal/Biomass/Biogas Thermal
Hydro Net Import Wind
Solar Curtailment
Net Export Total CAISO Load CAISO Net Load
Net Load = Load -Wind -SolarRenewablesCurtailment
Net Export
On Sunday April 21, 2019 the CAISO experienced a minimum net of 5,667 MW @ 14:37
3-hr, 11,355 MW ramp met by: - Import ~ 64.4%- Hydro – 15.6%- Thermal – 20.0%
California ISO - Public Page 9
What is the ISO doing?
• Sharing awareness of the how demand is balanced during different conditions
• Assessing ability of the resource fleet and import to meet demand in all periods
• In near-term to mid-term, ensure sufficient gas resources are maintained to meet demand when renewable production ceases
• In long-term, support alternatives to gas resource or overbuilding renewables to meet high demand periods
• Support Time-of-Use rates to incentivize demand to respond to system conditions
• Incentivize renewable resource to provide controllability and essential reliability resources traditional provided by conventional resources
California ISO - Public Page 10
The 3-Hour upward ramps are more than 50% of the daily peak demand, which indicates the need for faster ramping resources
2/18/2018 3/4/2018 3/5/2018
Max 3-Hr UP Ramp 13,597 14,777 13,740
Max 1-Hr Up Ramp 7,101 7,545 7,537
Peak Demand 25,604 26,186 28,378
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
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25,000
30,000
MW
Comparison of 3-Hour and 1-Hour upward Ramps
Max 3-Hr UP Ramp Max 1-Hr Up Ramp Peak Demand
53% of gross peak
56% ofgross peak
48% of gross peak
Page 10
California ISO - Public Page 11
What is the “Duck” telling us?
• Integrating renewables is making significant impact on how we meet mid-day demand
• Management of increased oversupply requires economic bids from all resources, including renewables
• Increasing evening ramp requires flexible capacity to balance supply and demand
• Need additional solutions such as storage, TOU rates, regional collaboration, and using all resources flexibly could help manage increasing oversupply and ramping needs
• Need to maintain sufficient production capacity during periods of low renewable production due to multiple days of cloud cover and low winds
• The volume and speed at which solar resources ramp up is faster than demand is increasing and needs to be managed
• Renewable resources need to follow dispatch instructions similar to other resources
California ISO - Public Page 12
How are we going to ensure our energy future is resilient, sustainable and efficient?
We must make the duck fly!
A healthy grid must counter-act the ill-affects of the sitting “duck curve”
California ISO - Public Page 13
Must leverage all capabilities across the grid to achieve a more favorable/flatter net load shape
Load
Net Load
RTD Prices$/MWh
0
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20
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50
60
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
RT
D_P
rices ($/M
Wh)
MW
Load, Net Load, Nuclear & RPS Generation vs. RTD Prices --- Mar, Apr & May, 2018
Nuclear Geothermal Biogas Small Hydro Wind Solar Load Net Load RTD_Prices
Discharge/consumeDischarge/
consume
Charge/Shift
Reshaped net load
Favorable net load curve
California ISO - Public Page 14
What levers must we pull to create a more favorable load shape and operationally sustainable grid?
California ISO - Public Page 15
Can variable energy resources provide essential reliability services to reliably operate the grid?
• NERC identified three essential reliability services to reliably integrate higher levels of renewable resources
– Frequency Control
– Voltage Control
– Ramping capability or Flexible Capacity
• Test results demonstrated the plant has the capability to provide these essential reliability services
• Advancement in smart inverter technology allows VERs to provide services similar to conventional resources
• VERs with the right operating characteristics are necessary to decarbonize the grid
California ISO - Public Page 16
Actual test results of a 300 MW solar PV plant for regulation, voltage and high and low frequency events