arrest patterns juvenile. total juvenile arrests
TRANSCRIPT
Arrest Patterns
Juvenile
Total Juvenile ArrestsTotal Juvenile Arrest Rate 1997-9, Annual Average
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
White Black AmerInd Asian
Arr
ests
per
100
,000
pop
ulat
ion
Dane
Kenosha
Milwaukee
Racine
Rock
Waukesha
WIBalance
Wisc Total
Offense Proportions JuvProportion of Juvenile Arrests, Wisc. Total
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30
Serious
Marijuana Possession
Other Drug Offenses
Theft/Larceny
Simple Assault
Other Property
Weapons & Misc
Alcohol-Related
Disorderly Conduct
Wrong Place
Other, Except Traffic
BlackWhite
Juv Arrests - SeriousJuvenile Arrest Rate 1997-9, Annual Average Serious Offenses
(Homicide, Agg. Assault, Sexual Assault, Robbery, Burglary, Auto Theft)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
White Black AmerInd Asian
Arr
ests
per
100
,000
pop
ulat
ion
Dane
Kenosha
Milwaukee
Racine
Rock
Waukesha
WIBalance
Wisc Total
Juv Arrests Other Except TrafficJuvenile Arrest Rate 1997-9, Annual Average
Other Except Traffic
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
White Black AmerInd Asian
Arr
ests
per
100
,000
pop
ulat
ion
Dane
Kenosha
Milwaukee
Racine
Rock
Waukesha
WIBalance
Wisc Total
Juv Drugs exc MJ arrestJuvenile Arrest Rate 1997-9, Annual Average
Other Drug Offenses (Excludes Marijuana possession)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
White Black AmerInd Asian
Arr
ests
per
100
,000
pop
ulat
ion
Dane
Kenosha
Milwaukee
Racine
Rock
Waukesha
WIBalance
Wisc Total
Juv Marijuana arrestJuvenile Arrest Rate 1997-9, Annual Average
Marijuana possession
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
White Black AmerInd Asian
Arr
ests
per
100
,000
pop
ulat
ion
Dane
Kenosha
Milwaukee
Racine
Rock
Waukesha
WIBalance
Wisc Total
Juv Alcohol arrestJuvenile Arrest Rate 1997-9, Annual Average
Alcohol Offenses
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
White Black AmerInd Asian
Arr
ests
per
100
,000
pop
ulat
ion
Dane
Kenosha
Milwaukee
Racine
Rock
Waukesha
WIBalance
Wisc Total
Juv Disorderly & Assault BW arrest
Juvenile Arrest Rate 1997-9, Annual AverageDisorderly Conduct & Simple Assault
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Disord White DisordBlack Asslt White AssltBlack
Arr
ests
per
100
,000
pop
ulat
ion
Dane
Kenosha
Milwaukee
Racine
Rock
Waukesha
WIBalance
Wisc Total
Juvenile Disparity Ratios
Wisc Total Dane Kenosha Milwaukee Racine Rock Waukesha WIBalanceSerious 5 7 3 4 4 6 9 8Marijuana Possession 2 4 2 1 1 2 3 4Other Drug Offenses 6 12 11 3 8 10 3 8Theft/Larceny 3 5 3 2 3 3 15 7Simple Assault 6 12 6 3 3 6 21 17Other Property 2 3 2 1 2 2 5 5Weapons & Misc 5 5 3 3 3 4 16 9Alcohol-Related 0 1 1 0 0 1 2 3Disorderly Conduct 4 7 4 3 3 4 7 8Wrong Place 3 3 3 2 0 4 5 6Other, Except Traffic 2 3 2 2 1 4 3 7
Total 3 4 3 2 2 4 6 7
Arrest Patterns
Adult
Offense Proportions, Adult arrests
Proportion of Adult Arrests, Wisc. Total, Average Annual 1997-9
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40
Serious
Marijuana Possession
Other Drug Offenses
Theft/Larceny
Simple Assault
Other Property
Weapons & Misc
Alcohol-Related
Disorderly Conduct
Wrong Place
Other, Except Traffic
Black
White
Adult, Total arrestsTotal Adult Arrest Rate 1997-9, Annual Average
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
White Black AmerInd Asian
Arr
ests
per
100
,000
pop
ulat
ion
Dane
Kenosha
Milwaukee
Racine
Rock
Waukesha
WIBalance
Wisc Total
Adult Serious arrestsAdult Arrest Rate 1997-9, Annual Average,Serious Offenses
(Homicide, Agg. Assault, Sexual Assault, Robbery, Burglary, Auto Theft)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
White Black AmerInd Asian
Arr
ests
per
100
,000
pop
ulat
ion
Dane
Kenosha
Milwaukee
Racine
Rock
Waukesha
WIBalance
Wisc Total
Adult, Other Exc Traffic arrestsAdult Arrest Rate 1997-9, Annual Average
Other Except Traffic
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
White Black AmerInd Asian
Arr
ests
per
100
,000
pop
ulat
ion
Dane
Kenosha
Milwaukee
Racine
Rock
Waukesha
WIBalance
Wisc Total
Adult Drug not Marijuana arrestsAdult Arrest Rate 1997-9, Annual Average
Other Drug Offenses (Excludes Marijuana possession)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
White Black AmerInd Asian
Arr
ests
per
100
,000
pop
ulat
ion
Dane
Kenosha
Milwaukee
Racine
Rock
Waukesha
WIBalance
Wisc Total
Adult Marijuana ArrestsAdult Arrest Rate 1997-9, Annual Average
Marijuana possession
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
White Black AmerInd Asian
Arr
ests
per
100
,000
pop
ulat
ion
Dane
Kenosha
Milwaukee
Racine
Rock
Waukesha
WIBalance
Wisc Total
Adult Disparity Ratios
Wisc Total Dane Kenosha Milwaukee Racine Rock Waukesha WIBalanceSerious 12 18 10 10 9 9 34 15Marijuana Possession 4 13 6 4 3 5 13 8Other Drug Offenses 17 33 26 9 11 17 38 27Theft/Larceny 11 16 11 7 6 5 75 12Simple Assault 11 20 7 7 6 6 17 15Other Property 5 8 6 5 4 3 26 9Weapons & Misc 13 13 6 7 6 5 19 10Alcohol-Related 1 3 2 1 1 1 6 3Disorderly Conduct 7 12 4 5 2 5 17 9Wrong Place 1 44 3 23 10 6Other, Except Traffic 8 19 8 7 5 10 21 12
Total 6 13 7 5 4 7 20 9
Multiple Arrests
• An arrest rate of 50,000 could mean that 50% of African Americans in a County are arrested each year, or could be that 5% are arrested 10 times a year.
• These imply very different images of what “the problem” is.
• But the multiple arrest phenomenon is true for all races, cannot explain the differences.
Place• Much of the racial disparity in arrests arises
from WHERE police concentrate their efforts
• Police appear to be using arrests for less serious offenses as a way of combating more serious offenses
• Place is not neutral with respect to race or other social factors
• There are real community debates about how to police high-crime places
Intensive Policing
• Parallels political repression
• Constantly asking people what they are doing, monitoring
• Blurred boundaries between crime & politics
• LEAA etc a response to riots & political turmoil
Politics
• War on drugs was/is political
• Police incentives to have high drug arrests
• Political incentives to focus on small, politically weak populations
• Economic interests in prisons: rural whites
Allocating Disparities to Arrests & Prison/Arrest Ratios
US: Accounting for 1996 black-white difference in prison admissions
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4
derivedother/unknown
public orderassault
fraud, stolen propertyburglary, theftdrug offenses
arsonsexual assault
robberyhomicide
Proportion of total black-white difference
Due to arrest rate differencesDue to prison/arrest ratio
Total
Wisconsin 1996 accounting for black white imprisonment difference
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40
derivedother/unknown
public orderassault
fraud, stolen propertyburglary, theft
drugarson
sexual assaultrobbery
homicide
Proportion of total black-white difference
Due to arrest differences due to prison/arrest ratio
Total
Allocating Sources of Dane County Imprisonment Disparity
Sources of Black/White Imprisonment Rate Difference: Dane County
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30
Homicide
Sex Assault
Agg Assault
Other Assault
All Robbery
Arson
Burglary
Theft/Fraud
Prostitution
Mfg/Sale Drug
Possess Drug
Weapons
Family/Child
Public Order
Derived
Other/Unkno
Due to arrests Due to P/A Ratio
Allocating difference, MilwaukeeSources of Black/White Imprisonment Rate Difference:
Milwaukee County
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50
Homicide
Sex Assault
Agg Assault
Other Assault
All RobberyArson
Burglary
Theft/Fraud
Prostitution
Mfg/Sale Drug
Possess DrugWeapons
Family/Child
Public Order
Derived
Other/Unknow
Due to arrests Due to P/A Ratio
Conclusions of this Analysis
• There are large disparities in serious crimes
• Imprisonment disparities are largely driven by drug and property crimes
• Milwaukee County’s disparities are mostly arrest-driven, while Dane County’s disparities arise from both arrests and prison/arrest ratios
Methodological Caveats About this Decomposition
• Prison admissions and arrests are not directly comparable. You can be arrested multiple times for multiple offenses. May not be convicted of the crime you were arrested for.
• Imprisonment may not occur in the year of arrest.• Many people are imprisoned for parole/probation
violations and are thus imprisoned for offenses that would not, themselves, merit prison. Hard to track in aggregate statistics.
Assessing “Bias”
• Prison/arrest ratio may not be “bias.” • Seriousness of offense within category &
prior record affect sentence. Studies say this accounts for much of the racial difference in sentencing, but not all.
• Factors correlated with social standing, such as “good family,” employed, educational level also play a role in sentencing.
Arrests and Crime: On the Other Hand . . .
• For homicide, robbery, stranger rape, arrests track crime fairly well. (Although there is a pattern in some cities of “rounding up” suspects – many more arrests for murder than murders, for example.)
• But for drugs, theft, assault, public order offenses, arrests are not a good proxy for actual crime.
• Arrests for less serious offenses are more a measure of police zealousness and emphasis on particular crimes or particular populations than a measure of crime.
Less Serious Offenses Matter
• Arrests for minor crimes affect “prior record” – this seems more true in Dane than Milwaukee County
• The “drug war” is the central source of racial disparities in new sentences in both counties
• Probation/parole system is where a lot of the action is: relatively minor crimes or non-criminal probation/parole violations lead to prison admission
Policing of Minor Crimes Matters
• Most people, even black youths, never commit a serious crime
• Lots of research shows impact of intervention on whether a person stays criminal or desists
• Prison does not aid desistence. Labeling.
Segregation, Crime and Policing
Location of Crime
• Much research showed spatial concentration of violent crime, especially homicide.
• Not clear whether it generalizes.
• Property crime (& drug sales?) may be more often concentrated where the poor & affluent meet
Segregation & Policing
• Some literature that segregation and intensive policing are alternate ways of protecting the affluent from property crimes by the poor
• Higher %black increases the probability of intra-racial crime, which is less politically inflammatory
• Higher % black increases black political influence, reduce arbitrary policing
Social Conditions, Political Processes, Crime, and Corrections
Laws,Penalties
PrisonInterests
Social &Demographic
Conditions
Crime
PoliticalProcesses
PoliceEnforcement
CorrectionsOutcomes
Feedback from Imprisonment to Social Conditions
Social Control, Deterrence
JudicialProcesses
Arrests
An Individual Life Course Model of Crime With Policing Added
JuvenileCrime
Peer &Normative
Context
AdultCrime
FatherAbsence/
FamilyDisruption
ParentalInvolvement in
Crime
ParentalUnemployment,
Economic &Educational
Disadvantage
AdultUnemployment/
Under-Employment
School Failure
Labelingand/or
InterventionProcesses
Intergenerational Effects
Imprisonment
JuvenileUnemployment
PolicingPractices
Imprisonment as a Cause of Crime?
CrimeUnemployment
FamilyDisruption
EconomicDistress
MiddleClass Flight
SpatialIsolation ofPoor Blacks
Deviant Culture(Gangs, Drug
Trade, Criminalityas a way of life)
ImprisonmentRates
+
+
++
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ due to Political Powerlessness
AggressivePolicing
LabelingEtc.
Processes+
+reduces ?
reduces ?
Segregation and Crime
• Spatial isolation leads to reduced opportunities, poverty, and increased crime
• Major reason non-poor move out of poor areas is fear of crime
• Crime increases spatial isolation of poor, especially black poor
• Disrupted families, destabilized neighborhoods, downward spirals
Non-poor areas matter
• Too much focus on inner cities has neglected some of the engines of causation
• Poor also out-migrate from high-crime areas
• What happens to them where they go affects long-term trajectories
• Policing in non-poor areas a crucial factor
In Conclusion
• Looking at the data challenges many preconceived ideas of where “the problem” is
• There is a serious need to address racial disparities in Wisconsin’s smaller communities
• Blacks are being differentially affected by the drug war
• The drug war & attendant policing look a lot like political repression might look
And Finally
• Police are not “the problem” but arrests and criminal sanctions are part of the problem
• We need to consider the incentive structures: police are “paid” to do drug enforcement
• We have to accept the fact that the drug war has been racial in its execution, and discuss what that means for our images of a just society