Artificial General Intelligence

The Shortest Path to a Positive Singularity

Ari A. Heljakka

GenMind Ltd

The Coming Technological Singularity Vernor Vinge (1993)

“Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly thereafter, the human era will be ended…

When greater-than-human intelligence drives progress, that progress will be much more rapid”

“Two years after Artificial Intelligences reach human equivalence, their speed doubles. One year later, their speed doubles again.

Six months - three months - 1.5 months ...

Singularity.

Plug in the numbers for current computing speeds, the current doubling time, and an estimate for the raw processing power of the human brain, and the numbers match in:  2021.

But personally, I'd like to do it sooner.”

Staring into the Singularity 1.2.5 Eliezer S. Yudkowsky (2001)

“Certainly my best current projected range of 2020-2060 is voodoo like anyone else's, but I'm satisfied that I've done a good literature search on the topic, and perhaps a deeper polling of the collective intelligence on this issue than I've seen elsewhere to date. To me, estimates much earlier than 2020 are unjustified in their optimism, and likewise, estimates after 2060 seem oblivious to the full scope and power of the… processes in the universe.”

Nanotech.biz interview withJohn Smart (2001)

“I set the date for the Singularity- representing a profound and disruptive transformation in human capability- as 2045.

The nonbiological intelligence created in that year will be one billion times more powerful than all human intelligence today."

The Singularity is Near, When Humans Transcend Biology - Ray Kurzweil (2005)

"One could argue that agriculture and the industrial revolution represent other Singularity situations, albeit weak ones compared to the one which may be upon us next.

But, while evolution might take millions of years to generate another psychological sea change as dramatic as the emergence of modern humanity, technology may do the job much more expediently. The technological Singularity can be expected to induce rapid and dramatic change in the nature of life, mind and experience.”

The Path to Posthumanity Dr. Ben Goertzel & Stephan Bugaj (2006)

Ben Goertzel

Stephan Bugaj

Credit: Ray Kurzweil

Credit: Ray Kurzweil

Singularity Enabling Technologies

Strong AI

Robotics

Nanotech

Biotech

Ray Kurzweil and some other leading futurists advocate a longer-term approach to AGI via brain mapping

Major projects such as IBM’s Blue Brain and Artificial Development’s Ccortex are working in this direction.

However, this approach requires AGI engineers to sit and wait for decades while neuroscientists figure out how to better map the brain, and the computer engineers build better hardware

Rather than waiting for the neuroscientists, the Novamente AGI design fills the knowledge gap via appropriate deployment of computer science

This approach may feasibly lead to AGI equaling or surpassing human level intelligence before 2020.

Singularity Enabling Technologies

Strong AI

Robotics

Nanotech

Biotech

Singularity Enabling Technologies

Strong AI

Robotics

Nanotech

Biotech

Race-specific pathogens

Gray goo

MatrixUnfriendly goal systemUnstable goal system

Potential Dangers of a Greater-than Human Intelligence AGI

Apr 2000 - WIRED

Why the future doesn’t need us

Bill Joy (co-founded Sun Microsystems in 1982)

Genetics Nanotech

G N

R = Robotic & Strong AI

“Inherently there will be no absolute protection against strong AI. Although the argument is subtle I believe that maintaining an open free-market system for incremental scientific and technology progress, in which each step is subject to market acceptance, will provide the most constructive environment for tech to embody widespread humans values.” - Ray Kurzweil (2005)

R

& Strong AIRobotics

RELINQUISHEMBRACE

Totalitarian

TECHNOLOGY

“Fine-Grained Relinquishment”

Destruction

Solution: Augmentation & Uploading?

“It's okay to fail at building AI. The dangerous thing is to succeed at building AI and fail at Friendly AI.

Right now, right at this minute, humanity is not prepared to handle this. We're not prepared at all. The reason we've survived so far is that AI is surrounded by a protective shell of enormous theoretical difficulties that have prevented us from messing with AI before we knew what we were doing.”

Why We Need Friendly AI-Eliezer Yudkowsky (2003)

Hierarchical goal system with ongoing compassion and Friendliness as part of the supergoal

Ethics initially taught and evaluated via interactions in a simulated environment…

Novamente’s Pragmatic Approach to Safer AGI

“Balance the risks of action and inaction.”

- Max More (2004)

Proactionary Principle

Thank you!

Ari A. Heljakka

GenMind Ltd

DeGaris’s Law

“The initial condition of the superhuman AI will determine its ongoing evolution… initially.”

- Prof. Hugo de Garis (2006)