asia frontier capital presentation - asian frontier stock markets

CONFIDENTIAL AFC Asia Frontier Fund

September 2013

Asian Frontier Markets

May 2017

2

Proven Expertise In Frontier Markets • Asia Frontier Capital Limited was created in June 2013 through a MBO from Leopard Capital – a PE fund

manager focusing on frontier markets • The founder and CEO, Thomas Hugger, has more than 20 years experience in investing in Frontier Markets • Licensed by SFC Hong Kong for Type 4 (advising on securities) and Type 9 (asset management)

Asia Frontier Capital Offers Three Funds • AFC Asia Frontier Fund – Launched 30th March 2012 • AFC Vietnam Fund – Launched 23rd December 2013 • AFC Iraq Fund – Launched 26th June 2015

AFC Asia Frontier Fund

INTRODUCING ASIA FRONTIER CAPITAL

3


INTRODUCING ASIAN FRONTIER MARKETS

4


WHY ASIAN FRONTIER MARKETS

AFC Asia Frontier Fund Universe

Bangladesh

Cambodia

Iraq

Laos

Maldives

Mongolia

Myanmar

Pakistan

Papua New Guinea

Sri Lanka

Vietnam

5

Excellent upside potential due to high GDP growth

Low Correlation and Diversification at

attractive Valuations

Increasing Consumption

Favourable Demographics



Manufacturing shift from China

6

Healthy GDP Growth Outlook for AFC Frontier Universe



Source: IMF

7.7 7.2 6.8 6.7

6.2 5.3 5.2

4.7 4.6

3.1

1.4

5.4

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Average GDP Growth Estimates (2017-2021)

7

A sizeable combined GDP which is equal to or larger than some emerging and developed economies. This is backed by an outlook for stable GDP growth rates.


Source: IMF

5.7% 5.4% 5.1%

3.3% 3.1% 2.5%

1.4%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

Emerging Asia

AFC Universe

Sub Saharan

Africa

MENA Eastern Europe

South & Central America

G7

Expected Average GDP Growth Rates (2017-2021)

1,404

1,073 1,064 941

736 638

391

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

Korea AFC Universe

Mexico Indonesia Turkey Saudi Arabia

Thailand

GDP Size as of 2016 (USD billion)

Source: IMF


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Compared to Developed Markets, the AFC Frontier Universe has a much younger population growing at a faster rate: This supports future economic growth and consumption



Source: United Nations Population Division.

AFC Frontier Universe – A Young and Growing Population

AFC Frontier Universe is supported by huge young population Developed Markets are not getting younger. AFC Frontier Universe offer young and growing population

59%

39% 37% 33%

28%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

AFC Universe

North America

Northern Europe

Western Europe

Japan

% of Population below age of 30

25

38 40 44

47 1.5%

0.7% 0.6%

0.2%

-0.2% -0.4%

0.0%

0.4%

0.8%

1.2%

1.6%

0

10

20

30

40

50

AFC Universe

North America

Northern Europe

Western Europe

Japan

Median Age and Population Growth

Median Age Population Growth

9 AFC Asia Frontier Fund


The AFC Frontier Universe has a sizeable population which continues to grow and will support future GDP growth

AFC Frontier Universe Combined Population: 583 million (as of 2015)

Source: IMF

32.6%

27.4%

15.7%

8.9%

6.0%

3.6%

2.7% 1.3%

1.2% 0.5% 0.1%

AFC Universe - Population Mix Pakistan

Bangladesh

Vietnam

Myanmar

Iraq

Sri Lanka

Cambodia

Papua New Guinea Lao P.D.R.

Mongolia

Maldives

1,373 1,293

583

337 322 255 204

-

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

China India AFC Universe

Euro Area

United States

Indonesia Brazil

Population (millions)


Combination of young workforce and low wages is attracting manufacturing activities to Asian frontier countries as wages in China increase and the workforce gets greater employment opportunities


The Shift from China

Source: China Statistical Bulletin, Wage Indicator Foundation, Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers & Exporters Association, General Statistics Office of Vietnam

*Rebased to 100 (2003). RMG: Ready Made Garments

Wages in Asian Frontier countries are amongst the lowest in the region Bangladesh and Vietnam are good examples of the shift of

manufacturing from China to neighboring countries

0

100

200

300

400

500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Bangladesh RMG & Vietnam Export Growth*

Bangladesh Vietnam

68 83

111 115 133

150

223 250 251 252

274 298

0

75

150

225

300

375

Monthly Minimum Wage (USD)

COUNTRY SNAPSHOT


• Two Stock Exchanges:

- Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), started trading in 1956: USD 46 billion market cap, 329 shares

- Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE), started trading in 1995: USD 37.9 billion market cap, 265 shares

• Most of the shares traded in Chittagong are also listed in Dhaka

• 35 closed end funds are listed – all trading at discount (average 34%)

• A few corporate bonds and government bonds are also traded

• Foreigners can buy 100% of almost all companies., including land. Foreigners who invest USD 1 million or transfer USD 2 million to a recognized

bank can apply for Bangladeshi citizenship!

• We prefer the consumer staples and consumer discretionary sectors due to rising income levels and high growth of urbanisation.

• The fund’s biggest holding is Beximco Pharma whose GDR (listed in London) is trading at a 39% discount !

• Very bureaucratic – lot of hurdles for foreigners like a 10% capital gain tax, capital control.

• GDP of USD 227 billion, GDP per capita of USD 1,404, Population of 162 million.

Bangladesh Bangladesh Dhaka Stock Exchange Broad Index

COUNTRY SNAPSHOT


• The Cambodian Securities Exchange started trading in 2012 (with the help of the Korea Stock Exchange)

• Currently 4 stocks listed (soon 5), Market cap of USD 188 million

• Investors need a “trading code” – very bureaucratic for a fund to receive (lack of understanding)

• Few Cambodian stocks listed outside – like Naga Corp (3918) in Hong Kong

• Foreigners cannot own land (except apartments above ground floor and <70% of a building) – similar to Thailand

• More than 90% of currency used is USD – ATMs in Cambodia dispense USD! KHR is “pegged” to USD at ~ 4,100

• Tourism is a big growth driver for the country with 5 million tourist arrivals in 2016 and accounted for ~17% of GDP.

• Garment manufacturing is also a growth area with many Chinese and Taiwanese garment producers relocating or expanding capacity in

Cambodia.

• GDP of USD 19.4 billion, GDP per capita of USD 1,228, Population of 16 million.

Cambodia Cambodia Stock Exchange Composite Index

COUNTRY SNAPSHOT


• Trading started in 1991 but trading stopped for 15 month in 2003/2004 due to Iraq war II

• ISX in Baghdad: USD 10.6 billion market cap, 80 stocks listed – but no oil stocks

• AFC Iraq Fund holds 14 stocks – 12 stocks are listed in Iraq, each 1 in Norway and UK

• Another stock exchange is planed in Erbil – Kurdistan province (North)

• Local government bond market is dominated by banks (instead of lending to corporates)

• Foreigners can own 100% of the company in most sectors (except oil & gas). Capital controls for foreigners. Investors need a trading code.

• Iraq is recovering from conflict and the market can pose a rebound from its bottom.


Iraq Iraq Stock Exchange General Index

COUNTRY SNAPSHOT


• Trading started in 2011 at LSX (with assistance of South Korea). 5 stocks listed, market cap USD 1,3 billion, 2 more IPOs expected later this

year

• Communist country – very difficult to invest for foreigners as of today. Foreigners can only lease land from the government.

• All 5 stocks have foreign ownership limits (EDL: 25%, BCEL: 10%) but foreign can set up 100% owned companies if the sector is open.

• Local banks pay high interest for deposits: for example 2 years: 4.9% in USD or 6.84 for LAK

• LAK is “fixed” to USD at ~ 8,200

• Laos is strong in hydropower generation and this sector holds a lot of potential and Laos can become a regional supplier of power.

• The country has a strong agricultural base as well which accounts for 33% of GDP.


Laos Laos Securities Exchange Composite Index

COUNTRY SNAPSHOT


• Secondary trading started in 1995. Every Mongolian citizen received vouchers to exchange into shares of previously 475 government

owned companies.

• 196 listed companies, market cap USD 599 million. Many resources companies are listed abroad like HK, Australia, Canada and US.

• Average daily turnover in December 2016 was USD 7,000. In 2007 the stock market was up 400%.

• MNT Government bonds are trading at the exchange too: yield ~ 15%, a few unlisted corporate bonds

• Foreigners can own 100% of almost any sectors. Land ownership is complicated though.

• Mongolia is extremely resource rich (gold, copper, coal) and is still to fully tap its potential.

• The recent IMF agreement as well as the restart of the important Oyu Tolgoi “OT” project is a positive and the economy seems to be

turning around.

• GDP of 11 billion, GDP per capita of USD 3,704, Population of 3 million – double the size of France

Mongolia Mongolia Stock Exchange Top 20 Index

COUNTRY SNAPSHOT


• Stock trading goes back to 1930 when British and American stocks were traded – but was halted from 1962 onwards.

• YSX started trading 25th March 2016, 4 stocks listed. Market cap USD 512 million. A few more stocks listed in Singapore and London

• Foreigners today cannot invest on the YSX.

• Since 1st April 2017 new foreign investment law. Foreigners can now own 100% of a company. However foreigners can only lease land

(typically 50 years) or through a JV.

• One of the last few untapped markets with huge potential and favourable demographics.

• Myanmar is also attracting garment related industries and could become a manufacturing hub for garments in the future.

• GDP of 68 billion, GDP per capita of USD 1,307, Population of 52 million.

Myanmar Myanmar Stock Price Index


• Trading started in 1949 and on 11th January 2016 Pakistan Stock Exchange “PSX” was created through a merger of the Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad Exchange.

• Market cap of USD 98 billion, 572 listed shares + various Government bonds. Share futures (shorting). Few GDRs (illiquid)

• Upgrade from MSCI Frontier Index to MSCI Emerging Index in June 2017

• Foreigners can own 100% of most sectors except airlines, banks and media.

• China Pakistan Economic Corridor “CPEC” can lead to sustained economic growth. ~US$ 60 billion in infrastructure investments committed.

• Improving security situation which adds to economic prospects and helps with consumer spending.

• Misunderstood market given the negative press – but a large consumer market with a population of ~194 million.

• We currently like the auto sector and consumer discretionary sector due to low interest rates, improving law and order and under penetrated consumer markets.


Pakistan Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index

COUNTRY SNAPSHOT

COUNTRY SNAPSHOT


• Trading started in 1999

• Market cap of USD 21.8 billion, 15 listings – 8 dual listings like Newcrest Mining and Oil Search. Market cap without dual listing: USD 1.7

billion (USD 1.4 billion Bank BSP)

• Treasury bills, a few government bonds and corporate bonds are available. 364 days treasury bill yield: 7.79%

• Foreigners are not allowed to own freehold land. Leases are typically 50 to 99 years.

• Papua New Guinea offers resource potential (oil, gas, copper, gold) and Exxon Mobil and its partners have invested USD 19 billion in aLNG

project.

• Agriculture is also an important sector which contributes 32% of GDP.


Papua New Guinea Port Moresby Stock Exchange Index

COUNTRY SNAPSHOT


• Stock trading goes back to 1896. Market cap is USD 19.3 billion and 289 shares are traded.

• 279 local LKR bonds are traded at the exchange: yield between 10% and 15%

• Foreigner cannot own freehold land (anymore) – apartments on or above 4th floor

• Sri Lanka is strategically located in the region and is becoming a transhipment hub. Majority of cargo handled in Colombo is for

transhipment to India.

• Given it’s location, Sri Lanka is an important part of China’s One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative and is benefitting from Chinese

investments in the infrastructure sector.


Sri Lanka Colombo Stock Exchange All Share Index

COUNTRY SNAPSHOT


• Vietnam has 3 stock exchanges: HCMC, Hanoi and UPCoM, 1,231 listings (no double listings), market cap USD 103 billion

• Government bonds and local bonds are also traded. Futures and options to start trading in May 2017 ?

• Foreigners could own up to 100%, except banks (20%) but… Registration for ID for funds is “cumbersome”

• Foreigners can own up to 30% of apartments in a building or 10% of houses in a “Ward “

• Vietnam is becoming a hub for low cost manufacturing given lower wages. Samsung now manufactures ~50% of its mobile phones in the

country.

• Given the growth of manufacturing and FDI, we like infrastructure related companies and due to rising income levels we also like the consumer discretionary and real estate related companies.


Vietnam Vietnam Ho Chi Minh Stock Index

COUNTRY SNAPSHOT


Bhutan

• Market cap of USD 383 million.

• 21 listings.

• GDP of USD 2 billion.

• GDP per capita of USD 2,674.

• Population of 0.8 million

Other Potential Markets

Maldives

• Market cap of USD 546 million.

• 7 listings.

• GDP of USD 3.4 billion.

• GDP per capita of USD 9,554.

• Population of 0.4 million.

Nepal

• Market cap of USD 16 billion.

• 221 listings.

• GDP of USD 21 billion.

• GDP per capita of USD 733.

• Population of 29 million.

COUNTRY SNAPSHOT


More info on:

www.asiafrontiercapital.com/country-universe.html



Low Market Cap/GDP relative to Emerging Markets Offers Value

Source: Bloomberg, Asia Frontier Capital

3% 6% 8%

19% 22% 28%

32% 39% 39% 40% 43%

69% 74%

82% 83%

102%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Market Cap. as % of GDP - Asian Frontier v/s Emerging Markets


Source: Bloomberg. P/E is based on Trailing 12 Months and P/B is latest reporting period.

Select Asian Frontier Markets Valuations

Country Index P/E (x) P/B (x) Dividend Yield (%)

Pakistan KSE100 10.9 2.1 4.1

Laos LSXC 11.5 0.9 6.3

Sri Lanka CSEALL Share 12.3 1.3 3.0

Vietnam VNINDEX 15.7 2.2 2.9

Emerging and Developed Markets Valuations

Country Index P/E (x) P/B (x) Dividend Yield (%)

Thailand SET 16.3 1.9 3.2

Malaysia FBMKLCI 17.5 1.8 3.1 USA Dow 18.5 3.5 2.3 South Africa JSE All Share 19.6 2.0 2.8

Japan Nikkei 19.6 1.8 1.7 Korea KOSPI 21.5 1.0 1.6

Philippines PCOMP 21.6 2.5 1.7 India BSE SENSEX 22.2 2.8 1.3 Indonesia JCI 23.1 2.5 2.2

Source: Bloomberg. P/E is based on Trailing 12 Months and P/B is latest reporting period.

Asian frontier markets are attractively valued relative to emerging and developed markets



Source: Bloomberg.

Asian frontier markets are INVESTABLE

Liquidity and number of listings is similar to or also superior to other emerging and frontier markets

Source: Bloomberg.

403

148 138 130 108

88 66 65

17 15 8 8 6 5 -

100

200

300

400

Daily Average Liquidity over past 12 months (USD million)

1,231

572 541 408

329 289 272 260 214 179 104 74 65 49

-

300

600

900

1,200

Number of listings on the exchange


26

Asian frontier stock markets show a low correlation to global markets as they are

under researched relative to larger emerging markets


Source: Bloomberg. *Based on 5 years monthly data

-0.33

-0.09

0.01

0.11

0.20 0.25

0.28 0.31

0.47

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

Correlation with the MSCI World Index DSEX Index (Bangladesh)

ISXGI Index (Iraq)

CSX Index (Cambodia)

MSETOP Index (Mongolia)

LSXC Index (Laos)

VH Index (Vietnam)

CSEALL Index (Sri Lanka)

KSE100 Index (Pakistan)

VN Index (Vietnam)



COUNTRY ALLOCATION

26.1% 24.7%

17.8%

12.6%

4.0% 3.6% 2.8% 1.6% 1.1% 0.3%

5.4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Country Allocation – 30th April 2017


SECTOR ALLOCATION

18.2%

15.1% 14.5%

11.9% 11.5% 10.6%

4.4% 3.6%

2.1% 1.4% 1.3%

5.4%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Sector Allocation – 30th April 2017

29

ASIA FRONTIER CAPITAL LTD.

Thomas Hugger, CEO and Fund Manager, Hong Kong Email: [email protected] Tel: +852 3904 1015, Fax: +852 3904 1017

Peter de Vries, Marketing Director, Hong Kong Email: [email protected] Tel: +852 3904 1079, Fax: +852 3904 1017

Website: www.asiafrontiercapital.com

Registered Office: c/o Intertrust Cayman Islands, 190 Elgin Avenue, George Town Grand Cayman KY1-9007, Cayman Islands

Hong Kong Office: Asia Frontier Investments Limited 905, 9th Floor, Loon Kee Building, 267-275 Des Voeux Road Central, Hong Kong


CONTACT INFORMATION

Asia Frontier Investments Limited is licensed by SFC Hong Kong for Type 4 (advising on securities) and Type 9 (asset management) *The representative of the Fund in Switzerland is Hugo Fund Services SA, 6 Cours de Rive, 1204 Geneva. The distribution of Shares in Switzerland must exclusively be made to qualified investors. The place of performance and jurisdiction for Shares in the Fund distributed in Switzerland are at the registered office of the Representative.

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.asiafrontiercapital.com/

This Presentation is presented solely for purposes of discussion to assist prospective investors in determining whether they have a preliminary interest in the investment opportunity described herein. Under no

circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security or other interest in AFC Asia Frontier Fund, AFC Umbrella Fund or any other fund related thereto (the

“Fund”). Offers and sales of interests in the Fund will not be registered under the laws of any jurisdiction and will be made solely to qualified investors under all applicable laws. Potential investors must read the entire

Offering Memorandum delivered by the Fund and the disclosure in this Subscription Agreement. Nothing contained herein shall be deemed to be binding against, or to create any obligations or commitment on the

part of, any potential investor or the Asia Frontier Capital (the “Fund Sponsors”). The Fund Sponsors reserve the right, in their sole and absolute discretion with or without notice, to alter the terms or conditions of this

Presentation and the Fund and/or to alter or terminate the potential investment opportunity described herein. Potential investors are not to construe this Presentation as investment, legal or tax advice. Prior to

making any potential investment, potential investors should consult with their own legal, investment, accounting, regulatory, tax and other advisors to determine the consequences of the potential investment

opportunity described herein and to arrive at an independent evaluation of such potential investment opportunity.

By accepting this Presentation, the recipient agrees not to copy, distribute, discuss or otherwise disclose this Presentation or the contents hereof (including the potential investment opportunity described) or any

other related information provided by the Fund Sponsors or by its agents to any person other than employees of recipient evaluating this potential investment opportunity on recipient’s behalf without the prior written

consent of the Fund Sponsors.

While the information contained herein has been obtained from various sources which the Fund Sponsors believe, but does not guarantee, to be reliable, the Fund Sponsors do not represent that it is accurate or

complete and it should not be relied upon as such. No person has been authorized to give any information or make any representation or warranty regarding the subject matter hereof, either express or implied, and,

if given or made in this Presentation, in other materials or verbally, such information, representation or warranty cannot and should not be relied upon nor is any representation or warranty made as to the accuracy,

content, suitability or completeness of the information, analysis or conclusions or any information furnished in connection herewith contained in this Presentation and it is not to be relied upon as a substitute for

independent review of the underlying documents, available due diligence information and such other information as prospective investors may deem appropriate or prudent to review. The Fund Sponsors, their

agents, their respective affiliates, and each of their respective shareholders, members, officers, directors, managers, employees, counsel, advisors, consultants and agents (“Representatives”), expressly disclaim any

and all liability for express or implied representations or warranties that may be contained in, or for omissions from or inaccuracies in, this Presentation or any other oral or written communication transmitted or made

available to a prospective investor or its Representatives. Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, nothing contained herein is or shall be relied upon as a promise or representation as to any matter, including,

without limitation, the future performance of the potential investment opportunity described herein. None of the Fund Sponsors, their agents, or their respective Representatives is under any obligation to correct any

inaccuracies or omissions in this Presentation. Each prospective investor will have the sole responsibility for verifying the accuracy of all information furnished in this Presentation and in any other due diligence

information furnished to a prospective investor, and each prospective investor shall have the sole responsibility for determining the value of the potential investment based on assumptions said prospective investor

believes to be reasonable. There shall be no recourse against the Fund Sponsors or any of their Representatives in the event of any errors or omissions in the information furnished, the methodology used, the

calculations of values or conclusions. Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, any historical information or information based on past performance included herein is for informational purposes only, has

inherent limitations and is not intended to be a representation, warranty or guarantee of future performance. All of the information presented herein is subject to change without notice. Actual returns to potential

investors may be lower than the figures shown herein. Projected performance data shown constitutes “forward-looking information” which is based on numerous assumptions and is speculative in nature. Actual

results may vary significantly from the values and rates of return projected herein. There can no assurance that the Fund will realize its rate of return objectives or return of investors’ capital. Potential investors should

have the financial ability and willingness to accept the risks (including without limitation the risk of loss and lack of liquidity) characteristic of investments in entities such as the Fund.

AN INVESTMENT IN THE FUND WILL NOT BE APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. INTERESTS IN THE FUND WILL INVOLVE A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK AND ARE INTENDED FOR SALE ONLY TO

SOPHISTICATED INVESTORS WHO ARE CAPABLE OF UNDERSTANDING AND ASSUMING THE RISKS INVOLVED. INVESTORS MAY LOSE ALL OR SUBSTANTIALLY ALL OF THEIR INVESTMENT.

THE INTERESTS IN THE FUND HAVE NOT BEEN REGISTERED UNDER THE U.S. SECURITIES ACT OF 1933, AS AMENDED (THE “SECURITIES ACT”), OR THE APPLICABLE SECURITIES LAWS OF ANY

US. STATE OR ANY NON-U.S. JURISDICTION, AND ARE BEING OFFERED AND SOLD IN RELIANCE ON EXEMPTIONS FROM THE REGISTRATION REQUIREMENTS OF THE SECURITIES ACT AND ANY

SUCH APPLICABLE LAWS. INTERESTS IN THE FUND HAVE NOT BEEN APPROVED OR DISAPPROVED BY THE US. SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION OR BY THE SECURITIES REGULATORY

AUTHORITY OF ANY STATE OR ANY OTHER RELEVANT JURISDICTION, NOR HAS ANY OTHER AUTHORITY OR COMMISSION PASSED UPON THE ACCURACY OR ADEQUACY OF THIS MEMORANDUM.

ANY REPRESENTATION TO THE CONTRARY IS UNLAWFUL.

*The representative of the Fund in Switzerland is Hugo Fund Services SA, 6 Cours de Rive, 1204 Geneva. The distribution of Shares in Switzerland must exclusively be made to qualified investors. The place of

performance and jurisdiction for Shares in the Fund distributed in Switzerland are at the registered office of the Representative.

** The Fund is registered for sale to investors in Japan, Switzerland (qualified investors), Hong Kong & UK (professional investors), Singapore (accredited investors) and USA (accredited investors and qualified

purchasers).

** By accessing information contained herein, users are deemed to be representing and warranting that they are either a Hong Kong Professional Investor or are observing the applicable laws and regulations of their

relevant jurisdictions.


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asia frontier capital presentation - asian frontier stock markets

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