asia office leasing survey_3q
TRANSCRIPT
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Colliers AsiA
3Q 2012
oiCe leAsing survey
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MAIN-INdex 1Q 2012 2Q 2012 3Q 2012
Market Condence 62.9% 64.2% 55.1%
sub-INdex 1Q 2012 2Q 2012 3Q 2012
New Leasing Inquiry 52.8% 54.4% 51.4%
Real Estate Requirements 79.3% 78.9% 60.4%
Landlords Expectations 49.4% 51.1% 41.5%
Rental Expectations 70.0% 72.2% 67.0%
exeCutives u m m A r y
Colliers International is delighted to present the results o our 3Q 2012 Asia Oce Leasing Survey.
We surveyed all o our oce leasing proessionals in Asia through an on-line questionnaire in early
September 2012.
Based on the ndings o our Survey and the methodology o Diusion Index (DI), Colliers Asia Oce Leasing Market Condence Index was
at 55.1% in 3Q 2012 (2Q 2012:64.2%), indicating that market participants are holding positive views on market outlook but their condence
is not as strong as previous quarter.
The sub-index o real estate requirements decreased to 60.4% in 3Q 2012 rom 78.9% in 2Q 2012. It indicates the oce tenants are seeking
or expansion while the pace o expansion was less aggressive. In terms o rental expectations, market expectation is less strong when
compared with 2Q 2012 since the reading o the rental expectations sub-index decreased to 67.0% in 3Q 2012 rom 72.2% in 2Q 2012.
Colliers Asia Oce Leasing Survey
3Q 2012
Colliers Asia Oce Leasin MarketConfence Ine
The readings of the Index and Sub-Index fall within the range of 0% to 100%.
A reading above 50% indicates the market trend is generally improving; below 50% indicates that it is generally declining.
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New LeAsINg INQuIry
The overall level o new oice leasing inquiry decreased in 3Q 2012. As reported, there were 25.5% o our brokers saying
the level o inquiry was an increase, up rom 23.3% in 2Q 2012. However, 22.6% o our brokers saw a decline in new leasing
inquiry (2Q 2012: 14.4%). The diusion index o clients new leasing enquiry was at 51.4% in 3Q 2012, decreased rom the
54.4% in 2Q 2012.
Compare to last qarter, ow o o see te level o new leasin inqiries in 3Q 2012?
neW inQuiry
groWing AtsloWer PACe
Colliers Asia Oce Leasing Survey
3Q 2012
New Leasin Inqir S-Ine
The readings of the Sub-Index fall within the range of 0% to 100%.A reading above 50% indicates the market trend is generally improving; below 50% indicates that it is generally declining.
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Most ActIve teNANt groups
Similar to the preceding quarter, the most active oice tenants groups remained Banking, Finance, Insurance (FIRE) and
IT sectors during 3Q 2012.
Breaking down by key business sectors, rise in activity happened in Banking, Finance, Insurance (FIRE), IT and
Proessional Consultants sectors.
Wic o te ollowin tenant rops are te most active in or market?
BAnKing AnD
inAnCe is tHemost ACtive
Colliers Asia Oce Leasing Survey
3Q 2012
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cLIeNts reAL estAte reQuIreMeNts
About 41.5% o our brokers saw an increase o real estate requirements rom their clients; the percentage was lower than
that in 2Q 2012 (i.e. 62.2%). Across the various key markets in the region, 20.8% o our brokers said a contraction o their
clients real estate requirements during 3Q 2012, compared with 4.4% in previous quarter.
The reading o diusion index o clients real estate requirements was at 60.4% in 3Q 2012 as compared to 78.9% in 2Q
2012, suggesting the clients are less aggressive in taking on additional space in 3Q 2012.
In view o or clients reqirements, wat are teir real estate reqirements?
less
Aggressive inexPAnsions
Colliers Asia Oce Leasing Survey
3Q 2012
Real Estate Reqirements S-Ine
The readings of the Sub-Index fall within the range of 0% to 100%.A reading above 50% indicates the market trend is generally improving; below 50% indicates that it is generally declining.
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LANdLords expectAtIoNs
In 3Q 2012, over hal o the landlords (ie. 54.7%) oered the same level o leasing incentives as previous quarter. More
landlords (31.1% in 3Q 2012 vs 23.3% in 2Q 2012) were being more generous in oering leasing incentives.
The reading o diusion index o landlords' expectations was at 41.5% in 3Q 2012. Since it was below the 50%-mark,
it signiied that landlords generally took a cautious view on the market and were being more generous in oering lease
incentives.
lAnDlorDs
BeCAmeCAutious
Lookin at leasin incentives (ree rent, cas, etc), are lanlors in or market :
Colliers Asia Oce Leasing Survey
3Q 2012
Lanlors Epectations S-Ine
The readings of the Sub-Index fall within the range of 0% to 100%.A reading above 50% indicates the market trend is generally improving; below 50% indicates that it is generally declining.
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reNtAL expectAtIoNs
On a orward-looking basis, ewer brokers (46.2% in 3Q 2012 vs 56.7% in 2Q 2012) expected rents to increase over the
next 12 months. Meanwhile, more brokers (41.5% in 3Q 2012 vs 31.1% in 2Q 2012) believed rents will remain stable over the
next 12 months.
The reading o diusion index o rental expectations was at 67.0% in 3Q 2012, decreased rom 72.2% in 2Q 2012. Since it
was above the 50%-mark, our brokers remain positive on prospective trend o oice rentals in the next 12 months.
Over te net 12 monts, o o epect rents in or market to:
PositiveexPeCtAtions
on rentAlgroWtH
Colliers Asia Oce Leasing Survey
3Q 2012
Rental Epectations S-Ine
The readings of the Sub-Index fall within the range of 0% to 100%.A reading above 50% indicates the market trend is generally improving; below 50% indicates that it is generally declining.
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This is a measurement o the change o clients inquiries during the quarterly period. Based on the methodology o DiusionIndex, the reading above 50% indicates the level o new leasing inquiries is improving during the quarter, and it is decliningwhen it read below 50%.
NEW LEASINg INQuIRy INdEx
Data is taken rom the responses to the question Compared to last quarter, how do you see the level o new leasing
inquiries in the current quarter?
Colliers Asia Oice Leasin Market Conience Ine = (dI1 + dI2 + dI3 + dI4 )/4
P1 = Percentae nmer o responents tat reporte an improvement o inqiriesP2 = Percentae nmer o responents tat reporte no caneP3 = Percentae nmer o responents tat reporte a eterioration o inqires
dision Ine (dI1) o New Leasin Inqir = (P1*1) + (P2*0.5) + (P3*0)
ThE MAIN INdExColliers Asia Oice Leasin Market Conience Ine (Leasing Conidence Index) is the main index. It is constructed byusing the methodology o Diusion Index (DI) and the consolidation o our component sub-indices - New Leasing Inquiry,Real Estate Requirements, Landlords Expectations and Rental Expectations. Applying equal weighs to the our sub-indices,
the Leasing Conidence Index with reading above 50% indicates the Asia leasing market conidence is general improving. TheIndex indicates the market conidence is deteriorating when it reads below 50%.
FOuR Sub-INdICES
The construction o the our sub-indices is based on the each o the ollowing our questions.
metHoDology
Short questionnaires comprising ive key questions had been sent to our oice leasing brokers in the Asian region via an on-line survey platorm during the irst week o September 2012.
Using the technique o * Diusion Index (DI), the results were used to develop our sub-indices covering (1) New LeasingInquiry, (2) Real Estate Requirements, (3) Landlords Expectations and (4) Rental Expectations. Ater all, Colliers Asia OiceLeasin Market Conience Ine is a composite index based on the above our diusion indexes with equal weights.
* dision Ine (dI) = (P1*1) + (P2*0.5) + (P3*0)P1 = Percentae nmer o responents tat reporte an improvementP2 = Percentae nmer o responents tat reporte no caneP3 = Percentae nmer o responents tat reporte a eterioration
A reain aove 50 percent inicates te market tren is enerall improvin;elow 50 percentae inicates tat it is enerall eclinin.
Colliers Asia Oce Leasing Survey
3Q 2012
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This is a measurement o the change o clients requirements. Based on the methodology o Diusion Index, the reading above50% indicates the level o clients requirement is expanding during the quarter, and it is contracting when it read below 50%.
This is a measurement o landlords expectations on the leasing market with reerence to the change o lease incentivesbeing oered to their tenants. Based on the methodology o Diusion Index, the reading above 50% indicates landlords
expectations are improving during the quarter, but it is contracting when it read below 50%.
This is a measurement o rental expectations on the leasing market with reerence to the read o brokers. Based on themethodology o Diusion Index, the reading above 50% indicates rental expectations over the next 12 months are positiveduring the quarter, but it is negative when it read below 50%.
REAL ESTATE REQuIREMENTS
Data is taken rom the responses to the question In view o your clients requirements, what are their real estaterequirements?
LANdLORdS ExPECTATIONS
Data is taken rom the responses to the question Looking at leasing incentives (ree rent, cash, etc), are landlords in yourmarket are being more generous, about the same or being less generous?
RENTAL ExPECTATIONS
Data is taken rom the responses to the question Over the next 12 months, do you expect rents in your market to increasequickly, increase slowly, remain airly lat or decrease slowly?
P1 = Percentae nmer o responents tat reporte an epansion o clients reqirements
P2 = Percentae nmer o responents tat reporte no caneP3 = Percentae nmer o responents tat reporte a contraction o clients reqirements
dision Ine (dI2) o Real Estate Reqirement = (P1*1) + (P2*0.5) + (P3*0)
P1 = Percentae nmer o responents tat reporte lanlors are less enerosP2 = Percentae nmer o responents tat reporte aot te sameP3 = Percentae nmer o responents tat reporte lanlors are more eneros
dision Ine (dI3) o Lanlors Epectations = (P1*1) + (P2*0.5) + (P3*0)
P1 = Percentae nmer o responents tat reporte rents to increase eiter qickl or slowin in te net 12 montsP2 = Percentae nmer o responents tat reporte rents to remain airl lat in te net 12 monts
P3 = Percentae nmer o responents tat reporte rents to ecrease slowl in te net 12 monts
dision Ine (dI4) o Rental Epectations = (P1*1) + (P2*0.5) + (P3*0)
Colliers Asia Oce Leasing Survey
3Q 2012
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Colliers Asia Oce Leasing Survey www.colliers.com
greAter cHINA
beijin, Cina502 Tower W3, Oriental PlazaNo 1 East Changan AvenueDongcheng District
Beijing 100738Tel : 86 10 8518 1633Fax : 86 10 8518 1638Amana gaoManaging Director, North [email protected]
Cen, CinaUnit 1504 Yanlord Landmark1 Renmin South Road Section 2Chengdu 610016Tel : 86 28 8658 6288Fax : 86 28 8672 3226Jack TsaiGeneral Manager
ganzo, Cina702 Teem Tower208 Tianhe RoadGuangzhou 510620Tel : 86 20 3819 3888Fax : 86 20 3819 3899Eric LamManaging [email protected]
Sanai, Cina16F Hong Kong New World Tower300 Huaihai Zhong Road
Shanghai 200021Tel : 86 21 6141 3688Fax : 86 21 6141 3699Lina WonManaging DirectorEast and South West ChinaInvestment Services, [email protected]
hon Kon, hKSAR5701 Central Plaza18 Harbour RoadWanchai, Hong HongCompany Licence No: C-006052Tel : 852 2828 9888
Fax : 852 2828 9899Ricar Kirke (E-279867)Managing [email protected] brnner (E-183614)Chie Executive Ocer - [email protected]
Taipei, Taiwan49F TAIPEI 101 TOWERNo. 7 Xin Yi Road Sec 5, Taipei 110Tel : 886 2 8101 2000Fax : 886 2 8101 2345
Anrew LiManaging [email protected]
NortH AsIA
Seol, Sot Korea10F Korea Tourism Organization Bldg.10 Da-dongJung-gu, Seoul 100-180Tel : 82 2 6740 2000Fax : 82 2 318 2015Ja ynSenior Director & General [email protected]
Toko, JapanHaliax Building3-16-26 RoppongiMinato-ku, Tokyo 106-0032 JapanTel : 81 3 5563 2111Fax : 81 3 5563 2100James FinkSenior Managing [email protected]
soutH eAst AsIA
Jakarta, Inonesia10F and 14F World Trade CentreJl Jenderal Sudirman
Kav 29-31 Jakarta 12920Tel : 62 21 521 1400Fax : 62 21 521 1411Mike broomellManaging [email protected]
Kala Lmpr, Malasiac/o Mark Lampar*Managing DirectorCorporate Solutions | Asia PacicTe : 65 6531 8601Fax : 65 6557 [email protected]* Based in Singapore
Karaci, PakistanSuite 2-A, level 2, Harbour House37-A, Lalazar AvenueBeach Hotel Road, O. M.T Khan RoadKarachi, PakistanTel : 92 21 3561 2550-2Fax : 92 21 3563 6382Moamme yasir QiwaiSenior Manager, Corporate Solutions &[email protected]
Laore, PakistanSuite 2, Mezzanine 2, Executive FloorsAl-Qadir Heights, Main BoulevardNew Garden Town, Lahore, PakistanTel : 92 42 3584 3474-6
Fax : 92 21 3563 6382Ame KanCountry [email protected]
Islamaa, PakistanONE Constitution Avenue, Adjacent ConventionCentre & Diplomatic Enclave Islamabad,PakistanTel : 92 51 834 7433Fax : 92 51 831 4737Walee MrrawatRegional Sales [email protected]
Manila, Pilippines10F Tower 2 RCBC PlazaAyala Avenue, Makati CityPhilippines1226Tel : 63 2 888 9988Fax : 63 2 845 2612davi yonManaging [email protected]
Sinapore1 Rafes Place#45-00 One Rafes PlaceSingapore 048616Tel : 65 6223 2323
Fax : 65 6222 4901dennis yeoManaging DirectorSingapore & Industrial Services | [email protected]
bankok, Tailan17/F Ploenchit Center2 Sukhumvit RoadKlongtoey, Bangkok 10110Tel : 66 2 656 7000Fax : 66 2 656 7111Simon LanExecutive [email protected]
ho Ci Min Cit, VietnamH Ch mh C, va7 Bc Bd19-25 n H sDc 1, H Ch mh C, vat : 84 8 827 5665a : 84 8 827 5667Peter dinninga [email protected]
For rter etails, please contact:
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Colliers Asia Oce Leasing Survey www.colliers.com
hanoi, Vietnam10, Capa tw Bd109 ta H Da sHa K Dc, Ha, vat : 84 4 3941 3277
a : 84 4 3941 3278dane Mooiemaa [email protected]
INdIA
benalr, IniaP ga, l 2, u n. 201/20236 u rad, Ba 560 042t : 91 80 4079 5500a : 91 80 4112 3131gotam Cakraortoc [email protected]
Cennai, Iniau 1C, 1 , Ha Cp23 spak rad, ChpCha 600 031t : 91 44 2836 1064a : 91 44 2836 1377Kasik Reoc [email protected]
graon, Inia1 , tchp BdDl g Cma sc rad
sc 54, ga 122 002t : 91 124 4375807a : 91 124 4375806Aja Rakejaoc [email protected]
Kolkata, Iniai B C, i Bchakl 18, r n 13, P g - 1Bck eP & gP, sc v, sa lakKkaa 700 091, W Bat : 91 33 2357 6501a : 91 33 2357 6502Soma Mkerjee
Mmai, Inia31-A, 3d , C68 tad radmba 400 034t : 91 22 4050 4500a : 91 22 2351 4272Pra Raavenraoc [email protected] McKash Aa Dcoc & iad sc
New deli, Inia204/205, 2d Kachja Bd18 Baakhaba radnw Dh 110 001
t : 91 11 4360 7500a : 91 11 2335 6624Aja Rakejaoc [email protected]
Pne, IniaBaha l H ld.(l md P)101 r.B.m. radP 411 001, mahaahat : 91 20 4120 6435a : 91 20 4120 6434Sres Castellinooc Dc
AustrALAsIA
Aelaie, Astralial 10, 99 gaw PacAdad sA 5000t : 61 8 8305 8888a : 61 8 8231 7712James yonsa Ch ec
brisane, Astralial 20 Ca Paza o
345 Q sBba QlD 4000t : 07 3229 1233a : 07 3120 4555Simon beirnesa Ch [email protected]
Canerra, Astraliagd f, 21-23 mac Cak sCaba ACt 2601t : 61 2 6257 2121a : 61 2 6257 2937Pal Powerlsa Ch ec
Melorne, Astralial 32 367 C smb viC 3000t : 61 3 9629 8888a : 61 3 9629 8549Jon Marascosa Ch ec
Pert, Astralial 19, 140 s g tacPh WA 6000t : 61 8 9261 6666a : 61 8 9261 6665
K. Imran Moiinsa Ch [email protected]
Sne, Astralial 12, g Pac225 g ssd nsW 2000t : 61 2 9257 0222a : 61 2 9251 3297Malcom Tsonsa Ch [email protected]
Acklan, New Zealan
sAP tw, l 27151 Q sAckad 1140t : 64 9 358 1888a : 64 9 358 1999Mark SnnottCh ec oc, nw [email protected]
Wellinton, New Zealanl 10, 36 Ch QaW 6011t : 64 4 473 4413a : 64 4 499 1550 (Ac)
: 64 4 470 3902 (vaa)
Ricar Finlamaa [email protected]
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