asia pacific aviation · growth of asian middle class consumers 47% 52% 56% 0 1,000 2,000 3,000...
TRANSCRIPT
Asia Pacific Aviation
EMBRACING FUTURE CHALLENGES
Andrew Herdman
Director General
Association of Asia Pacific Airlines
Overview• Asia Pacific aviation
• Industry trends & outlook
• Evolving business strategies
• Global regulatory challenges
• Future growth
Aviation: delivering global mobility
• Safely connecting people and business
• Wider social and economic benefits
• Outstanding safety record
• Committed to sustainable growth
Source: IATA WATS 2018E, ATAG Aviation Benefits Beyond Borders 2018
35%by value of
global trade
Goods worth
US$6 trillion
4.4 billionpassengers
12 million daily
Asia Pacific
Source: IMF WEO October 2018, ATAG Aviation Benefits Beyond Borders 2018
• Diverse geographic region
• Home to more than 4 billion people
• Dynamic economies generate 34% of global GDP
• Aviation widely recognised as a key contributor
to economic and social development
- Supports 30 million jobs and US$684 billion in GDP
• Wide range of income levels, rapidly growing
middle class
Source: Airbus GMF 2018 - 2037
Households with yearly income between $20,000 and $150,000 at PPP in constant 2017 prices
Growth of Asian middle class consumers
47%
52%
56%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2017 2027 2037
CIS
Latin America
Africa
Middle East
North America
Europe
Asia Pacific
Rising demand for goods & services including air travel
Asia Pacific Aviation
Source: Combined AAPA + non-AAPA airlines GMT+5 to GMT+12
US$186 billion revenue
US$9 billion net profit
1,486 million passengers
1,055 million domestic
431 million international
22 million tonnes of cargo
7,997 aircraft
Asia Pacific carriers overall market share:
34% of global passenger traffic
36% of global cargo traffic
2017 Data - Traffic: IATA World Air Transport Statistics, Financials: AAPA Estimates
World’s ten busiest domestic routesKareen
Source: IATA WATS 2018, 2017 data
Rank Route PAX (million)
1 Jeju – Seoul 13.5
2 Melbourne – Sydney 7.8
3 Fukuoka – Tokyo 7.6
4 Sapporo – Tokyo 7.4
5 Beijing – Shanghai 6.4
6 Hanoi – Ho Chi Minh City 6.4
7 Delhi – Mumbai 5.6
8 Tokyo – Okinawa 4.8
9 Jeddah – Riyadh 4.8
10 Beijing - Chengdu 4.6
almost all in Asia Pacific
World’s ten busiest international / regional routes
Rank Route PAX (million)
1 Hong Kong - Taipei 5.4
2 Dublin – London 3.4
3 Jakarta – Singapore 3.3
4 Bangkok – Hong Kong 3.1
5 Kuala Lumpur – Singapore 2.8
6 Hong Kong – Seoul 2.7
7 London – New York 2.7
8 Osaka – Taipei 2.6
9 Bangkok – Singapore 2.5
10 Tokyo – Taipei 2.5
Source: IATA WATS 2018, 2017 data
almost all in Asia Pacific
Industry Outlook
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8E
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Emerging &
Developing
economies
World
Advanced
economies
GDP Growth
% change
Global economic trends
2016 2017 2018E 2019F
+3.3% +3.7% +3.7% +3.7%
Policy uncertainty including trade frictions may
undermine confidence
World GDP Growth
Source: IMF WEO October 2018
Global passenger and cargo traffic
RPKs FTKs
Robust growth in air passenger markets
Trend rate +6.9% p.a.
Firm air cargo markets
Trend rate +5.1% p.a.
Source: IATA
0
20
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US
$ p
er
ba
rre
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Crude oil price (Brent)Jet fuel price
Oil prices rising again
Source: US Energy Information Administration
Airfares follow changes in oil prices
Source : IATA Industry Forecast June 2018
Average airfare
Average jet fuel price
• Airfares remain highly competitive
• Margins under pressure
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
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40
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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E
US$ billion
North America Europe Asia Pacific Middle East Latin America Africa
5.0
14.717.3
-26.1
-4.6
8.3 9.2 10.713.8
36.034.2
38.033.8
Global airline profitability trends
Source: IATA
Global net profit
• Strong passenger and air cargo markets
• Profit margin still just 4%
Revenue & Profit per Passenger
Profit per Passenger below US$10 even in good yearsSource: IATA
Evolving Business Strategies
Airline business model share by region
RP
Ks, B
illi
on
Source: IATA WATS 2018, 2017 data
81%
63% 75%
94%
72%91%
19%
26% 24%
6%
28%
9%
11%
1%
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Asia Pacific Europe North America Middle East Latin America Africa
Full Service Low Cost Leisure
Global Full Service Low Cost
Market Share 76% 21%
Growth +6.5% +13.6%
Digitising the passenger experience
• Evolving consumer expectations
• Smartphone for everything
• Streamlining customer processes
• Online research + booking + ancillaries + payment
+ digital token
• Self-service check-in + bag drop + boarding
• Biometric identity checks
• Flight updates & baggage tracking
• Automated service recovery
Challenge of harnessing new technologies to
deliver a better passenger experience
Global Regulatory Challenges
Global regulatory influences
Asia
Pacific
• Wider impact of US and EU regulations
• Asia Pacific needs a unified voice
• Need for harmonised global standards
Global regulatory challenges
Aviation is subject to intensive regulation
• Safety
• Security
• Sustainability
• Passenger Facilitation
• Consumer Protection
• Taxes & Charges
• Infrastructure
Ben
Aviation Safety Performance
Outstanding safety record built on focus,
commitment and cooperationSource: AAPA
*Data as of 10 October 2018
1 major accident in 2
million flights
1 major accident in 3
million flights
1 major accident in 4
million flights
1 major accident in 5
million flights
Western-built Jet Aircraft Major Accident Rates by Operator Region 2008-2018
3-year moving averages
Aviation Security
• Aviation remains highly secure despite perceived risks
• Threats and challenges evolving: no room for complacency
• Good security about comprehensive threat assessment and
balanced risk management, not the elimination of every
conceivable risk
• Shared global concern requires close international
coordination built on trusted relationships
• Mitigation measures need to be proportionate, focus on the
probable threat, avoid unnecessary disruption
• Approach to security can learn from safety management
Cybersecurity
• Universal dependence on information technology
• Growing connectivity and digitisation bring increased
challenges and vulnerabilities
• Cyber threats constantly evolving
• Criminals as well as State actors
• New regulatory initiatives
• Focus on ecosystem and resilience
Requires trust and cooperative efforts
Aviation & Sustainable development
Aviation continues to deliver on its commitments
• Aviation pursuing ambitious strategy:
- Fuel efficiency + Operational enhancements + Infrastructure improvements
+ Sustainable alternative fuels + Carbon offsets
- Carbon Neutral Growth from 2020
- A 50% reduction in net aviation CO2 emissions by 2050, relative to 2005
levels
• Aviation is the first industry sector to commit to CO2 reductions
using a global market based measure
• ICAO CORSIA
- Emissions reporting for all operators - 2019
- Carbon offsetting obligations - 2021 onwards
• Risk of duplicative measures undermining support
Passenger Facilitation
Need for closer collaboration to improve passenger
facilitation whilst enhancing border security
• Challenges of processing 12 million daily passengers
• Harness technologies to streamline airline, security &
border control processes
• Lack of data exchange standards and concerns over
privacy issues
• Proliferation of complex and inconsistent passenger
rights regulations confuse travellers
• Mass disruption events require close cooperation of
multiple stakeholders
Taxes & ChargesBen
• Opportunistic taxes hurt economic
development & impede job creation
• User charges must be transparent, cost-
related, non-discriminatory & for current use
• Economic regulation of monopoly service
providers required
Aviation is a catalyst for economic growth,
job creation & social development
Future Growth
Global Aviation - Future growth
Source: Boeing CMO 2018-2037
*Does not include travel within China
2017 traffic Added traffic 2018-2037 Annual growth %
Global aviation - future aircraft orders
Source: Boeing CMO 2018-2037
• Asia Pacific to account for 40% of new aircraft deliveries
• Corresponding infrastructure & manpower requirements
New airplane deliveries by region
Aviation – manpower development challenge
• Need to attract, train and develop skilled
manpower to meet future growth
• ICAO Next Generation of Aviation
Professionals (NGAP) programme
• Government policy on education and
training
• Private sector partnerships
• Commitment to workforce diversity and
gender equality
Source: Boeing Pilot and Technician Outlook 2018 - 2037
Asia Pacific839,00035%
North America569,00023%
Europe465,000 19%
Latin America165,000 7%
Middle East227,000 9%
Africa86,0004%
Russia / Central Asia83,000 3%
Demand for Pilots, Technicians & Cabin Crew
2018 - 2037
Infrastructure
• Airport Capacity
- Long-term planning to meet projected growth
- Capital investments required but need cost vigilance
- Slot management only an interim measure
• Various forms of public and private sector involvement
• Economic regulation & oversight
- Balancing interests of airlines, airports and travelling public
Governments have a responsibility to coordinate
infrastructure planning and regulatory oversight
• Aviation a key driver of global economic and social
development
• Infrastructure planning is now critical
• Airline strategies evolving in response to changing
market dynamics and consumer preferences
• Regulatory oversight should focus on maintaining
consistent global standards on safety, security and
ensuring a competitive business landscape
Closing thoughts
Asia Pacific airlines at the forefront of global air
transport development