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ARTNeT CONFERENCE ASIA-PACIFIC RESEARCH AND TRAINING NETWORK ON TRADE
ARTNeT Trade Economists’ Conference Trade in the Asian century - delivering on the promise of economic prosperity
22-23rd September 2014
Organized Session 3: Protectionism and BRICS economies
www.artnetontrade.org
Competition-Cooperation Game:
China & Brazil in BRICS
YUE YUNXIA
Bangkok
September 23, 2014
OUTLINE
Bilateral trade and the protectionism
Impetus for protectionism
China-Brazil trade potential in BRICS
Outlook and options
China- Brazil Trade
PROTECTIONISM MEASURES AGAINST EACH OTHER
• Brazil took more measures: Total measures implemented by China is 30, while those by Brazil is 161
• Brazil was more flexible on measure selection: Among all the 23 types of measures, China took 9 types, while Brazil took 10 types.
• Both countries tended to take traditional protectionism measures: The types of measures that both countries didn’t implemented against each other: Technical Barrier to Trade, Sub-national government measure, State-controlled company, State trading enterprise, Sanitary and Phytosantiary Measure, Other service sector measure, Migration measure, Investment measure, Import ban, Consumption subsidy, Competitive devaluation
• Brazil took more advantage on the WTO rules
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Export subsidy
Tariff measure
Export taxes or restriction
Quota (including tariff rate quotas)
Local content requirement
Public procurement
Non tariff barrier (not otherwise specified)
Trade defence measure (AD, CVD, safeguard)
Import subsidy
Trade finance
Bail out / state aid measure
Intellectual property protection
Protectionism Measures Implemented by China & Brazil
Implemented by Brazil against China
TRADE REMEDIES: ANTIDUMPLING
0 50 100 150 200
India
United States
European Union
Argentina
Brazil
Turkey
Australia
Mexico
South Africa
Colombia
161
117
114
90
78
64
41
40
38
36
Anti-dumping Initiations against China: Top 10
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
India
United States
European Union
Argentina
Turkey
Brazil
Canada
Korea, Republic of
Mexico
South Africa
129
96
84
66
60
47
25
21
20
20
Anti-dumping Measures against China: Top 10
OUTLINE
Bilateral trade and the protectionism
Impetus for protectionism
China-Brazil trade potential in BRICS
Outlook and options
IMPETUS FOR PROTECTIONISM
• Trade
– Limited market potential
– Concentrated product structure
– Trade imbalance
• Pressures
– Competition from similarity
– Internal pressures
• Perspectives
POTENTIAL OF CHINESE EXPORT TO LAC
0,2 0,2 0,2 0,3
0,6 0,6 0,6 0,6 0,6 0,7 0,7 0,7 0,8 0,8 0,9 0,9 1 1 1 1,1 1,1 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,3
1,8 1,9 2,1 2,1
2,5 11,6
14,7
格林纳达 圣基茨和尼维斯
圣卢西亚 特立尼达和多巴哥
玻利维亚 古巴
多米尼加 萨尔瓦多 洪都拉斯
哥斯达黎加 牙买加 伯利兹 苏里南 墨西哥
危地马拉 哥伦比亚 委内瑞拉 圭亚那
巴巴多斯 巴西
厄瓜多尔 秘鲁
多米尼克 阿根廷 海地
拉美地区合计 尼加拉瓜 巴拉圭 巴哈马 智利
乌拉圭 圣文森特和格林纳丁斯
巴拿马 安提瓜和巴布达
CONCENTRATION OF BILATERAL TRADE
TRADE STRUCTURE: BILATERAL VS. WORLD
TRADE IMBALANCE
COMPETITION FROM SIMILARITY
ESI （World）
ESI （US）
1999 60.79 64.26
2000 64.18 66.87
2001 61.44 67.90
2002 58.46 71.20
2003 55.43 66.19
2004 56.89 61.92
2005 57.75 61.94
2006 57.37 56.56
2007 54.85 52.12
2008 52.02 53.83
2009 45.53 47.83
2010 43.89 41.67
china Brazil 1 USA 19% CHN 17%
2 HKG 11% USA 11%
3 JPN 8.30% ARG 7.20%
4 DEU 4.40% NLD 5.40%
5 KOR 3.70% DEU 3.90%
6 GBR 2.50% JPN 3.60%
7 MEX 2.40% IND 2.30%
8 FRA 2.30% VEN 2.00%
9 RUS 2.30% CHL 2.00%
10 IND 2.30% KOR 2.00%
Exporting Similarity Index: product Exporting Similarity : market
PEW Global Attitude：Many Say China’s Growing Economy Is Good for Own Country
OUTLINE
Bilateral trade and the protectionism
Impetus for protectionism
China-Brazil trade potential in BRICS
Outlook and options
BILATERAL TRADE POTENTIAL IN BRICS
• Potential from BRICS mechanism
• Complementarity between China & Brazil
• Emerging market space
• Potential created by FDI
Complementarity between China & Brazil
BACKGROUND FOR FURTHER COOPERATION
Middle Class Consumption –Top 10 Countries 2009 2020 2030
1 United States 4,377 21% China 4,468 13% India 12,777 23%
2 Japan 1,800 8% United States 4,270 12% China 9,985 18%
3 Germany 1,219 6% India 3,733 11% United States 3,969 7%
4 France 927 4% Japan 2,203 6% Indonesia 2,474 4%
5 United Kingdom
889 4% Germany 1,361 4% Japan 2,286 4%
6 Russia 870 4% Russia 1,189 3% Russia 1,448 3%
7 China 859 4% France 1,077 3% Germany 1,335 2%
8 Italy 740 3% Indonesia 1,020 3% Mexico 1,239 2%
9 Mexico 715 3% Mexico 992 3% Brazil 1,225 2%
10 Brazil 623 3% United Kingdom
976 3% France 1,119 2%
CHINESE OFDI TOWARD BRAZIL
OUTLINE
Bilateral trade and the protectionism
Impetus for protectionism
China-Brazil trade potential in BRICS
Outlook and options
OUTLOOK AND OPTIONS
The China-Brazil trade stands at a new turnover point. With a slowing growth,
the two economies should seek new trade growth points:
• FDI should become a new engine, which might push the upgrade of the
trade structure
• The intra-industry coordination will help to promote trade and FDI
• The regulation innovation will bring a more stable growth of the bilateral
trade
THANKS! Yue Yunxia
Institute of Latin American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Email: [email protected]; [email protected]