asian american millennials: the next wave of change
TRANSCRIPT
Asian American Millennials:
The Next Wave of Change
Dr. Raphael J. Sonenshein
The PBI-CalState LA Poll
Cal State LA Downtown Facility
June 29, 2016
Thank You to Our Partner:
Advancing Justice - LA
Stewart Kwoh
Daniel Ichinose
Joanna Lee
• Charlie Woo, Founder and Chair of CAUSE
• Dr. Jun Xing, Dean of Undergraduate Studies at Cal State LA
• Dr. Ping Yao, Director of Asian and Asian American Studies at Cal State LA
• Dr. Scott Bowman, Dean of Natural and Social Sciences at Cal State LA
• Dr. Gar Culbert, Professor of Political Science at Cal State LA
• Susan Pinkus, PBI Polling Consultant
• PBI and Cal State LA Staff
• And the President and Provost of Cal State LA for supporting our polling
Thank you to Our PBI Asian American Poll Working Group
The Challenges of Polling Asian Americans*
• Too few Asian Americans in many national surveys for valid analysis.
• “Asian American” includes differing national origins.
• Language diversity may require translation of questionnaire.
• Need larger overall samples, Asian American only polls, or oversampling.
• *George Gao, Pew Research Center, May 11, 2016
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/05/11/the-challenges-of-polling-
asian-americans/
• AND geographic concentration: California holds the largest share of Asian
Americans, which complicates national polling of Asian Americans.
How Our Poll Addresses These Challenges
• Geographic concentration: Los Angeles County’s Asian American Voters
• Asian Americans only: 1608 overall, with sufficient samples of four major sub groups.
• Survey offered in multiple languages.
• Time consuming but allows detailed analysis
• Tradeoffs: Not as timely as election polls, but deeper analysis is possible
LA County: Asian American Population
• 30.9% of Asian Americans in the United States live in California
• 13.7% of California’s Asian Americans reside in Los Angeles County.
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1990 2000 2010
Asia
n A
meri
can
Po
pu
lati
on
in
LA
C
ou
nty
(T
ho
usan
ds)
Year
925,561
1,137,500
1,346,865
U.S. Census Bureau, 2010
U.S. Census Bureau, 2010
LA County Population by National Origin
Nationality Population
Chinese
Japanese
Korean
Filipino
350,119
102,287
216,501
322,110
Methodology
• Polled 1,608 Asian American Voters from LA County
between October 22, 2015 and January 24, 2016
• Performed via live telephone interviews in five Asian
languages (Cantonese, Japanese, Korean, Mandarin,
and Tagalog) and English
• Results were weighted by:
• Region (LA City, San Gabriel Valley, and remainder
of LA County)
• Ethnicity (Chinese, Filipino, Japanese, and Korean)
• Age (18-44 and 45+)
• Nativity (foreign vs. native born)
Asian American Voters are Very Well Educated.
Chinese Filipino Japanese Korean All
HS degree, GED or less 32% 22% 18% 32% 27%
College degree 49% 63% 53% 51% 52%
Graduate degree 19% 15% 30% 18% 21%
Education by Ethnicity
Education by Age
18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Total
HS degree, GED or less 29% 17% 24% 37% 27%
College degree 57% 52% 55% 48% 52%
Graduate degree 14% 31% 21% 15% 21%
Younger voters have high English proficiency
18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Total
Very well 83% 64% 46% 28% 53%
Well 12% 23% 33% 21% 23%
Not well 4% 9% 15% 31% 16%
Not at all 1% 4% 5% 20% 8%
English Language Proficiency by Age
…as do Japanese-Americans and Filipino-Americans
Chinese Filipino Japanese Korean All
Very well 40% 61% 87% 35% 53%
Well 24% 30% 11% 21% 23%
Not well 24% 7% 3% 26% 16%
Not at all 12% 2% 0% 19% 8%
English Language Proficiency by Ethnicity
18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ All
Never 46% 48% 40% 34% 42%
Some/Often 46% 50% 59% 64% 55%
Religiosity by Age
Religiosity is higher among older voters
…and among the foreign born
Religiosity by Nativity
Foreign Born Native Born Total
Never 39% 46% 42%
Some 21% 26% 23%
Often 39% 23% 32%
…and varies by ethnicity
Chinese Filipino Japanese Korean All
Never 58% 21% 49% 32% 42%
Some 19% 18% 28% 11% 23%
Often 20% 53% 22% 55% 32%
Religiosity by Ethnicity
Overall, the majority of voters are foreign born
Nativity by Ethnicity
Chinese Filipino Japanese Korean All
Foreign Born 63% 61% 11% 71% 59%
Native Born 37% 40% 89% 29% 42%
….but, the younger and older voters are mirror images
18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Total
Foreign Born 17% 52% 73% 79% 59%
Native Born 83% 48% 27% 21% 42%
Nativity by Age
Most older voters follow Asian media, while most
younger voters lean towards English media.
Average Media Attention by Age
18-29 29% 3% 11% 7% 60% 10% 11% 5% 4%
30-44 31% 12% 11% 6% 64% 16% 16% 13% 9%
45-64 40% 20% 13% 12% 49% 17% 20% 9% 13%
65+ 43% 32% 22% 29% 13% 13% 28% 6% 15%
Total 36% 18% 15% 14% 45% 14% 20% 9% 11%
Foreign born voters rely heavily on Asian Media.
Average Media Attention by Nativity
Foreign Born 34% 28% 11% 21% 37% 19% 25% 7% 16%
Native Born 39% 5% 21% 5% 56% 7% 12% 11% 5%
Total 36% 18% 15% 14% 45% 14% 20% 9% 11%
Chinese-American and Korean-American voters lean
towards Asian media.
Average Media Attention by Ethnicity
Chinese 21% 22% 10% 23% 43% 27% 29% 10% 20%
Filipino 56% 10% 23% 4% 40% 2% 21% 4% 2%
Japanese 59% 6% 35% 2% 41% 4% 3% 12% 0%
Korean 30% 36% 8% 22% 47% 17% 26% 8% 19%
All 36% 18% 15% 14% 45% 14% 20% 9% 11%
Younger voters are most likely to talk to friends but
least likely to donate money to campaigns.
Average Participation Rates by Age
18-29 34% 19% 71% 12% 13% 16%
30-44 33% 22% 69% 20% 13% 23%
45-64 36% 30% 66% 14% 12% 27%
65+ 23% 18% 46% 9% 11% 28%
Total 31% 22% 62% 14% 12% 24%
National differences on participation
Average Participation Rates by Ethnicity
Chinese 19% 14% 53% 9% 10% 20%
Filipino 31% 25% 59% 14% 13% 26%
Japanese 48% 33% 73% 21% 17% 34%
Korean 23% 25% 63% 15% 9% 20%
All 31% 22% 62% 14% 12% 24%
Native born voters are more likely to participate
than foreign born voters.
Average Participation Rates by Nativity
Foreign Born 23% 17% 55% 9% 9% 22%
Native Born 41% 30% 72% 21% 15% 28%
Total 31% 22% 62% 14% 12% 24%
On most issues, especially social ones, young voters are
more liberal than elders.
18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ All
Support Affordable Care Act 77% 67% 64% 56% 65%
Support Legal Path to Citizenship 73% 65% 50% 52% 59%
Support for CA Min Wage 68% 69% 70% 75% 71%
Support Same-Sex Marriage 81% 62% 49% 31% 53%
Legalize Abortions 68% 67% 57% 40% 57%
Undocumenteds Help Economy 49% 50% 46% 41% 46%
Asian-Am Representative Importance 68% 74% 72% 78% 73%
Republican Party ID 11% 19% 20% 23% 19%
Views on Issues by Age
All groups favor greater Asian American representation.
Chinese Filipino Japanese Korean All
Support Affordable Care Act 56% 69% 71% 71% 65%
Support Legal Path to Citizenship 46% 66% 60% 77% 59%
Support for CA Min. Wage Increase 68% 78% 67% 74% 71%
Support Same-Sex Marriage 45% 53% 80% 41% 54%
Legalize Abortions 60% 41% 76% 42% 57%
Undocumenteds Help Economy 39% 42% 50% 51% 41%
Asian-Am Representative Importance 77% 75% 67% 81% 74%
Republican Party ID 16% 24% 24% 20% 19%
Views on Issues by Ethnicity
Native born voters are more socially liberal than foreign
born voters.
Foreign Born Native Born Total
Support Affordable Care Act 60% 72% 65%
Support Legal Path to Citizenship 52% 68% 59%
Support for CA Min. Wage Increase 74% 67% 71%
Support Same-Sex Marriage 38% 75% 53%
Legalize Abortions 48% 70% 57%
Undocumenteds Help Economy 44% 49% 46%
Asian-Am Representative Importance 76% 69% 73%
Republican Party ID 20% 18% 19%
Views on Issues by Nativity
Male Female Total
Support Affordable Care Act 65% 64% 65%
Support Legal Path to Citizenship 61% 57% 59%
Support for CA Min. Wage Increase 67% 75% 71%
Support Same-Sex Marriage 56% 51% 53%
Legalize Abortions 60% 54% 57%
Undocumenteds Help Economy 48% 44% 46%
Asian-Am Representative Importance 68% 80% 73%
Republican Party ID 22% 16% 19%
Views on Issues by Gender
No obvious gender gap. Dig deeper?
Asian American Voters Agree On
• Desire for representation
• Support for economic change, e.g. minimum wage
• Support for health care and immigration reform
• Significant religiosity overall, even among younger
voters.
A New Generation is Reshaping the Community’s Voice.
• Native born
• Less religious, more liberal, more Democratic
• Drawing their information from English language media
• More likely to talk about politics with friends and family
• Becoming somewhat more like their fellow new generation in
other communities.
But, the Older Generation is Still Powerful.
• 25.9% of Voters are between the ages 45 and 64
• 27.6% of Voters are 65 or older
• Language is critical for political mobilization
• More religious
Challenges and Opportunities for Both
Parties
Democrats:
• Not as tuned into religiosity
• Struggling to inspire younger voters, more attuned to older
Democrats
• Enough targeted outreach to older Asian American voters?
• How to balance representation aspirations in their coalition
Republicans:
• More at ease with religiosity, but their policies are not popular
• Rely on older voter activism, not as comfortable with younger
voters
• Representation issue may help Republicans
Consistent With a New National Election Poll by Asian and Pacific Islander American Vote (APIA Vote) and Asian Americans Advancing
Justice (AAAJ)
• “Inclusion, not Exclusion: Spring 2016 Asian American Voter Survey”
• Survey of 1212 Asian American registered voters nationwide.
• “Asian Americans are shifting in party identification toward the Democratic Party.”
• “Young Asian Americans (18 to 34) are a key demographic to watch.” Far more likely than elders to identify with Democratic party; to approve of President Obama; and to support Bernie Sanders over Hillary Clinton.
Join the Conversation!
Pat Brown Institute for Public Affairs
Cal State LA
5151 State University Drive
Los Angeles, California 90032
#PBIAsianAmPoll
www.PatBrownInstitute.org
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