Asian American Survey - Florida

Findings from a Survey of 700 Asian American Voters nationwide plus 100 each in FL, IL, NV, and VACelinda Lake, David Mermin, and Shilpa GroverLake Research PartnersWashington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NYLakeResearch.com202.776.9066

2

Methodology

• Lake Research Partners designed and conducted this telephone survey of 713 registered Asian American and Pacific Islander voters nationwide, with oversamples of 100 voters in Florida, Illinois, Nevada, and Virginia.

• Interviews were conducted April 5-15, 2012. Sampling error is +/- 3.7%. For Florida, we conducted 140 interviews, with a margin of error of +/-8.3%.

• Telephone numbers for the survey were drawn randomly from voter files. The sample was stratified geographically by region based on the proportion of voters in each region. The data were weighted by gender, age, region, and race/ethnicity.

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Asian Americans are more divided politically in Florida than in other states.

• Asian American voters in Florida are more Republican than in other states. 46% say they are Democrats, 20% independents, and 33% Republicans. (Nationwide, more than half say they are Democrats, and only 16% are Republicans.)

• Florida Asian American voters are very negative about the direction of the country for people like them – only 20% say things are going in the right direction, and 62% say the wrong track. Impressions of the country’s direction overall are also net negative, with 37% saying things are going in the right direction, 47% wrong track, and 15% unsure. – They are also more pessimistic about the economy, with 45% saying it’s fair and 35% saying it’s poor.

• More than half (55%) say that Obama’s job performance is just fair or poor. A majority still support Obama (57%), though a higher number than usual support Romney (29%), and 12% are undecided.

• On the generic congressional ballot, the margin is closer—43% of Floridian Asian American voters support the Democratic candidate, 33% support the Republican, and 23% are undecided—which means both parties in Florida can make gains, and neither can take Florida for granted. – Asian Americans are +9 points more likely in Florida to say that they have been reached out to by the Republican Party, at

26%. Fewer Asian Americans than nationwide (-5 points) say they have been contacted by the Democratic Party, at 18%--though this number is within the margin of error.

• While nearly half of Florida Asian American voters say they are more enthusiastic to vote this year, a third say they are less enthusiastic. Even so, 87% say they are almost certain to vote.

Who Asian American Voters Are

5

Demographics of registered Asian American voters in FloridaLanguage Spoken At Home:• Only English – 35%• Mandarin – 8%• Korean – 8%• Hindi – 15%• Vietnamese – 10%• Cantonese – 7%• Tagalog – 6%• Hmong – 0%• Other – 16%

Race:• Chinese – 15%• Indian – 26%• Filipino – 16%• Korean – 12%• Vietnamese – 13%• Japanese – 3%• Other – 11%

Gender:• Male – 49%• Female – 51%

Party Identification:• Democrat – 46%• Republican – 33%• Independent/Don’t know/

Refused – 20%

Voting Pattern:• Democratic – 43%• Republican – 28%• Independent/Don’t know/

Refused – 29%

Employment Status: • Employed full time – 55%• Employed part time – 10%• Unemployed – 7%• Retired – 17%• Homemaker – 6%

Marital Status:• Married – 71%• Single – 19%• Unmarried with partner – 2%• Separated/divorced – 2%• Widowed – 4%

Kids under 18:• Yes – 38%• No– 60%

Age:• Under 30 – 19%• 30-39 – 19%• 40-49 – 20%• 50-64 – 25%• 65 and over – 13%

Education:• HS or less – 20%• Some college – 21%• College graduate – 43%• Post-graduate – 9%

6

Almost 90% of Asian Americans report being almost certain to vote this November. This indicates a potential for record turnout among the Asian American community this year.

87

10 1 0 2 0Almostcertain

Probably 50-50 Probably notDefinitely not Don't know

Likelihood of Voting

Although it is some time from now, what are the chances of you voting in the election for President, Congress, and other offices this November – are you almost CERTAIN to vote, will you PROBABLY vote, are the chances about 50-50, are you probably NOT going to vote, or are you DEFINITELY not going to vote?

7

Most Asian American voters in Florida were born outside the U.S., and of those, most immigrated as young adults or younger.

25

10

35

1714

Child (0-12) Teenager(13-17)

Young Adult(18-29)

Adult (30+) Don't know

Age of Immigration to U.S.

Were you born in the United States or were you born in another country?If born in another country: How old were you when you moved to the United States?

Born in US, 33

Born in another country,

65

Don't know, 2

8

Of those who were born in the U.S., four out of five have immigrant parents, a higher number than nationwide totals.

83

17

Born in another country Born in US

Parents Born in US or Another Country

Was either your mother or your father born in a country other than the United States?

*Asked among those who were born in the United States

9

76

46

28

15

13

7

Television

Internet and social media

Newspapers

Friends and family

Radio

Community organizations and leaders inmy community

News Source for Politics in United States

While most Asian American voters use TV as a news source, 46% use internet and social media. Newspapers are also used by 28% of Asian Americans.

Thinking about news, which of the following sources would you say you use to get news about politics in the United States?

10

81

3

17

Mostly in English

Mostly in another language

Equal mix of both

Language of News

Close to one in five Asian Americans in Florida consume at least some of their news in an Asian language.

And is the news you watch or read mostly in English, mostly in another language, or an equal mix of both?

How Asian Americans Feel About the United States

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Asian Americans in Florida have a dramatically negative opinion of how things are going for people like them as compared to Asian Americans nationwide.

Thinking about how things are going in the country, do you feel things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Thinking about how things are going in the country for people like you, do you feel things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

3747

15 20

62

18

Right direction Wrong track Don't know Right direction Wrong track Don't know

Direction of Country

*Asked of half the sample

How things are going in the country* How things are going in the country for people like you*

-42-10

13

80% of Asian Americans in Florida have negative impressions of the economy.

216

4535

1Excellent Good Just fair Poor Don't know

U.S. Economy

How would you rate how the U.S. economy is doing right now—would you say it is excellent, good, just fair, or poor?

14

Florida Asian American voters are split on Obama’s job performance.

6

35 38

18

3

Excellent Good Just fair Poor Don't know

President Obama's Job Performance

How would you rate the job being done by Barack Obama as President? Is he doing an excellent, good, just fair, or poor job?

Asian Americans and their Political Attitudes

16

Although Obama and the Democratic Party are net positive among Floridian Asian Americans, the favorability ratings for Obama and the Democratic Party are lower than nationwide, and Romney and the Republican Party are rated higher than we see elsewhere.

Now I’d like to ask you about some people and organizations who have been mentioned in the news recently. For each, please tell me whether you have a VERY favorable, SOMEWHAT favorable, somewhat UNFAVORABLE, or VERY unfavorable impression. If you haven’t heard of them [6] , or if you don’t know enough about them to have an impression [5], just say so, and we will move on.

Net

-7

+2761

37

54

37

34

44

34

48

23

7

23

12

15

22

13

21

Barack Obama

Mitt Romney

The Democratic Party

The Republican Party

Favorability

+20

-11

Unfavorable Favorable

NO/NH

20

5

12

15

17

A majority of Asian Americans support Obama, while nearly a third support Romney. 12% are undecided.

Assuming Mitt Romney is the nominee for the Republican party, if the election for President was held today and the candidates were: President Barack Obama, Democrat and Former Governor Mitt Romney, Republican, for whom would you vote, or are you undecided?

57

29

124216

Obama Romney Undecided

Presidential Ballot

+28

*Asked of 114 respondents. 26 received a similar question on Obama vs. Santorum before he dropped out.

18

Just under half of Asian American voters in Florida report voting for Obama in 2008, while one in five say they did not vote.

47

24

920

Obama McCain Neither/ other/ don'tremember/ refused

Didn't vote

2008 Vote

Thinking about past elections, did you get a chance to vote in the 2008 presidential election? If so, did you vote for Democrat Barack Obama or Republican John McCain?

19

Asian Americans in Florida are more divided than Asian American voters nationally on the congressional ballot (52% Democratic, 37% Republican, 31% undecided) , with only ten points separating the Democratic candidate from the Republican.

And if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for: the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district, or are you undecided?

4333

23

29 21

Democratic candidate Republican candidate Undecided

Generic Congressional Ballot

+10

20

On values and fairness, Asian Americans say the Democratic Party is better than the Republican Party. Democrats also have the advantage on health care, education, and immigration. However, a significant number think there is no party difference or don’t know which party is doing a better job.

Now I’d like to ask you about some issues that might be important in the election. For each, please tell me whether you think the Democratic Party or the Republican Party is doing a better job with this issue, or if there is no difference. Do you feel the Democratic Party or the Republican Party is doing a better job with this issue? Is that a MUCH better job or SOMEWHAT?

No Diff/DK

30

25

25

24

25

27

54

50

48

48

48

45

2120

27

2927

28

39

36

35

32

31

31

8

11

13

11

12

14

Standing up for the middle class

Treating all Americans fairly and equally

Health care

Sharing your values

Immigration

National security

Which Party Doing Better JobRepublican Party Democratic Party

21

On economic and national security issues, Asian Americans are less sure but still favor the Democrats. A plurality does not favor either party on the deficit.

Now I’d like to ask you about some issues that might be important in the election. For each, please tell me whether you think the Democratic Party or the Republican party is doing a better job with this issue, or if there is no difference. Do you feel the Democratic Party or the Republican Party is doing a better job with this issue? Is that a MUCH better job or SOMEWHAT?

No Diff/DK

36

45

41

43

35

29

23

27

27

28

29

28

27

26

21

13

8

8

11

11

Taxes

Education

Foreign policy

Jobs and the economy

The budget deficit

Which Party Doing Better Job

35

Republican Party Democratic Party

32

32

30

38

Engaging Asian Americans

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Asian American voters in Florida report that they have been contacted by the Republican Party in higher numbers than Asian Americans nationwide (26% in Florida, 17% nationally). Still, the majority have not been contacted by either party.

7 11 14

62

818 15

55

A greatdeal

Some A little Not atall

A greatdeal

Some A little Not atall

Been Contacted in the Past Two Years

Have you been contacted by the Democratic party/Republican party in the past two years a great deal, some, a little, or not at all?

By the Democratic Party By the Republican Party

18 26

24

Nearly half of Asian American voters say they are more enthusiastic to vote this year than in previous elections—however, a third say they are less enthusiastic.

Compared to previous elections, would you say you are more enthusiastic about voting in 2012 than usual, or less enthusiastic than usual? [IF MORE OR LESS ENTHUSIASTIC: Is that much more/less enthusiastic or somewhat?]

49

33

1719 11

More enthusiastic Less enthusiastic Same

Enthusiasm for voting in 2012

+16

25

Almost a fifth of respondents who speak another language say they would be more likely to vote if they had in-language assistance.

For future elections, would in-language assistance make you more or less likely to vote in elections, or would it make no difference?

190

81

More likely Less likely No difference/ don't know

In-Language Assistance More/Less Likely to Vote*

*Asked of 96 respondents who took the survey in another language or say they speak another language at home

Asian Americans and their Potential Impact

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Asian Americans in Florida give Obama a 38 point lead over Romney. That would provide a 33,000 vote margin for Obama if there is a similar turnout pattern as 2008. However, more than 1 in 10 remain undecided, and both parties have opportunities for additional contact and outreach.

Assuming Mitt Romney is the nominee for the Republican party, if the election for President was held today and the candidates were: President Barack Obama, Democrat and Former Governor Mitt Romney, Republican, for whom would you vote, or are you undecided?

57

29

124216

Obama Romney Undecided

Presidential Ballot - Florida

+38

*Asked of 114 respondents

88,000 Asian Americans voted in the November 2008 election of 8,453,000 total voters in Florida.

Celinda Lakeclake@lakeresearch.com

David Mermindmermin@lakeresearch.com

Shilpa Groversgrover@lakeresearch.com

Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NYLakeResearch.com202.776.9066