Asian Regionalism?

•ASEAN

•Northeast Asia

Outline

• Economic development– Flying geese, falling geese

• Economic interdependence

• ASEAN

• Northeast Asia

Postwar Development I

• Flying geese pattern of economic development, by industry

Postwar Development II

• Flying geese pattern of economic development, by region

Trade Interdependence

ASEAN: overview

• Association of Southeast Asian Nations

• 10 member states– Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia,

Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, & Vietnam

• home to 600 million people

• collective GDP of US$2 trillion

ASEAN: founding (1967)

• 5 founding members:– Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia,

Philippines

• Bangkok Declaration of 1967:– accelerate economic growth– promote regional peace and stability– contain the spread of communism

Arc of Containment

End of Cold War

• ASEAN Free Trade Area

• initiated at ASEAN summit in 1992• comprehensive program of regional tariff

reduction

• program later broadened and accelerated

• reaffirmed during Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-98

End of Cold War

• Expansion of ASEAN

• 1995: Vietnam

• 1997: Laos

• 1997: Myanmar

• 1999: Cambodia

ASEAN: external links

• A joint forum with Japan was established in 1977

• A cooperation agreement with the European Community was signed in 1980

• ``ASEAN + 3”: regular series of meetings at the cabinet and head-of-government levels with Japan, China, and South Korea since 1997

ASEAN and U.S.

• Investment:– U.S. direct investment of US$157 billion in

ASEAN

– nearly 3 times more than in China

– 10 times more than in India

• Trade:– 4rd largest export market ($76 billion) for U.S.

– U.S. imported $123 billion from ASEAN

Northeast Asia

• Japan, South Korea, North Korea

• Mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan

• Mongolia, Russia

Northeast Asia

• Compared with Southeast Asia and West Europe, Northeast Asia has lagged behind– in developing mechanisms or institutions– of coordination, cooperation, or integration

• especially considering the immense economic potentials in the region– natural resources– human infrastructure

Political Difficulties

• Legacies of World War II– Japanese atrocities in Pacific Asia

• Legacies of Cold War– partition of Korea

Political difficulties

• Territorial disputes between– Japan and China– Japan and South Korea– Japan and Russia– “Sea of Japan” or “East Sea”?

• mutually reinforcing suspicions

Current Status

• Washington-Tokyo-Beijing triangle– PRC & Japan regard relationship with each

other as 2nd in importance to that with US

• Japan plays significant role in integrating PRC into world economy

• Japan has a vital interest in PRC’s development and stability

• Economic interdependence

PRC’s Trade Partners 2012

• Japan is mainland China’s third largest trade partner and largest import source

• Total trade volume: US$329 billion

• Total imports from Japan: US$178 billion– 10% of mainland China’s total imports

• Total exports to Japan: US$152 billion– 7% of mainland China’s total exports

Japan’s Trade Partners

• Mainland China is Japan’s largest trade partner, largest source of imports, and largest destination of exports– US$334 billion trade in 2012– compared with $217 billion trade with US

• PRC (including Hong Kong) became Japan’s largest trade partner in 2004– surpassed the US for the first time

Japan’s Direct Investment

• Largest overseas investment source

• 22,307 Japan-invested enterprises

• Directly or indirectly employ over 10 million people