asic fundamental analysis - amazon s3 · - you will understand valuation (find good deals and buy...
TRANSCRIPT
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BASIC FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
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- YOU WILL UNDERSTAND VALUATION (FIND GOOD DEALS AND BUY SMART)
- YOU WILL ANALYZE CURRENT STOCKS AND PRACTICE
- YOU WILL YOU USE YOUR COMPUTER TO SEARCH FOR STRONG COMPANIES
- YOU WILL LEARN FUNDAMENTAL VOCABULARY ESSENTIALS
-YOU WILL DISCOVER HOW FUNDAMENTALS RELATE TO DEBT, CURRENCY, AND INFLATION
- YOU WILL FIND OUT HOW TO SET FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS CRITERIA
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS ONLINE TRAINING
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IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATIONTANNER TRAINING LLC IS PROVIDING THIS TRAINING AND ANY RELATED MATERIALS (INCLUDING NEWSLETTERS, BLOG POSTS AND OTHER COMMUNICATIONS) FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. WE ARE NOT PROVIDING LEGAL, ACCOUNTING, OR FINANCIAL ADVISORY SERVICES, AND THIS IS NOT A SOLICITATION OR RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY STOCKS, OPTIONS, OR OTHER FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS OR INVESTMENTS. EXAMPLES THAT ADDRESS SPECIFIC ASSETS, STOCKS, OPTIONS OR TRANSACTIONS ARE FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY AND MAY NOT REPRESENT SPECIFIC TRADES OR TRANSACTIONS THAT WE HAVE CONDUCTED. IN FACT, WE MAY USE EXAMPLES THAT ARE DIFFERENT OR THE OPPOSITE OF TRANSACTIONS WE HAVE CONDUCTED OR POSITIONS WE HOLD. THIS TRAINING IS ALSO NOT INTENDED AS A SOLICITATION FOR ANY FUTURE RELATIONSHIP, BUSINESS OR OTHERWISE, BETWEEN THE STUDENTS OR PARTICIPANTS AND THE TRAINER. NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES ARE BEING MADE WITH RESPECT TO THESE SERVICES AND PRODUCTS.
ALL INVESTING AND TRADING IN THE SECURITIES MARKETS INVOLVES RISK. ANY DECISION TO PLACE TRADES IN THE FINANCIAL MARKETS, INCLUDING TRADING IN STOCK OR OPTIONS, IS A PERSONAL DECISION THAT SHOULD ONLY BE MADE AFTER THOROUGH RESEARCH, INCLUDING A PERSONAL RISK AND FINANCIAL ASSESSMENT, AND THE ENGAGEMENT OF PROFESSIONAL ASSISTANCE TO THE EXTENT YOU BELIEVE NECESSARY.
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IGNORANCE COMPETENCEAWARENESS PROFICIENCY
PHASE 1 PHASE 2PHASE 0 PHASE 3
401 K MUTUAL FUNDS
HANDS OFF
LITTLE OR NO FINANCIAL EDUCATION
ADVANCED CLASSESSELECT YOUR STYLE
BASIC CLASSESMENTOR
MARKET LABS
SPECIFIC RULES DETAILS
SELECT YOUR STYLE
STRATEGIESVOCABULARY
CONTEXT CLASSES
EXPERIENCEPRACTICE INCOME!
MARKET LABS
ANDY’S EDUCATION CONTINUUMTM
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FUNDAMENTALANALYSIS
TECHNICALANALYSIS
CASH FLOW RISK MANAGEMENT
STRENGTH OF AN ENTITY STRENGTH OF A MARKET EARN UP, DOWN, SIDEWAYS EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED
FOUR PILLARS OF INVESTING
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FINANCIAL STATEMENT
CASH FLOW
INCOME STATEMENT
EQUITY
BALANCE SHEET
THE HEART OF FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS IS THE FINANCIAL STATEMENT.
INCOME
EXPENSES
ASSETS LIABILITIES
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THREE BASIC FINANCIAL STATEMENTS:
PERSONAL CORPORATE SOVEREIGN
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WHAT IS LIKELY?THE VELOCITY OF A BODY REMAINS CONSTANT
UNLESS THE BODY IS ACTED UPON BY AN EXTERNAL FORCE.
WHERE ARE THINGS HEADED NOW?
EXTERNAL FORCE = POLICY
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1. TAXES
2. SPENDING
1. INTEREST RATE
2. BUY TREASURIES
IMPACTS THE MONEY SUPPLY AND THE GDP
FISCAL POLICY
CONGRESS
MONETARY POLICY
FEDERAL RESERVE
IMPACTS INCOME, EXPENSES THE DEFICIT AND THE DEBT
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SOVEREIGN FINANCIAL STATEMENT: UNITED STATES
$100+ TRILLION
A L
SOCIAL SECURITY, MEDICAREDEBT SERVICE, DEFENSE
GDP
(RECESSION)
$14 TRILLION
ON BALANCE SHEET PROMISE
I TAXES
E
OFF BALANCE SHEET PROMISE
$1.6 TRILLIONDEFICIT
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INSOLVENCY
DEFAULT
BANKRUPTCY
WHERE ARE THINGS HEADED NOW?THE BANKRUPTCY PATTERN
OPERATES AT A DEFICIT AND MUST USE
RESERVES OR DEBT PROGRAM
FAILS TO PAY OBLIGATIONS DEATH OR
RESTRUCTURING OF THE ENTITY
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SOVEREIGN FINANCIAL STATEMENT: UNITED STATES
$100+ TRILLION
A L
SOCIAL SECURITY, MEDICAREDEBT SERVICE, DEFENSE
GDP
(RECESSION)
$14 TRILLION
ON BALANCE SHEET PROMISE
I TAXES
E
OFF BALANCE SHEET PROMISE
QUANTITATIVE EASING
$1.6 TRILLIONDEFICIT
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THE UNITED STATES CAN PAY ANY DEBT IT HAS
BECAUSE WE CAN ALWAYS PRINT MONEY TO
DO THAT
- ALAN GREENSPAN
PRINTING MONEY
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NOTES AND CERTIFICATES REPRESENT VALUE
STOCKCERTIFICATEONE SHARE
CERTIFIES THAT YOU OWN A CAR IN THE VALET GARAGE
CERTIFIES THAT YOU OWN SILVER IN THE TREASURY
CERTIFIES THAT YOU OWN A SHARE OF THE COMPANY
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WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF I PRINTED MORE TICKETS?
CERTIFIES THAT YOU OWN A CAR IN THE VALET GARAGE
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NOTES AND CERTIFICATES REPRESENT VALUE
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CERTIFIES THAT YOU OWN SILVER IN THE TREASURY
WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF I PRINTED MORE CERTIFICATES?
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CERTIFIES THAT YOU OWN SILVER IN THE TREASURY
WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF I PRINTED MORE CURRENCY?
IT WOULD BE FRAUD - BECAUSE IT WOULD NOT
PRODUCE MORE SILVER.....
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FIAT CURRENCY
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BACKED BY THE FULL FAITH A CREDIT OF THE
UNITED STATES
WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF I PRINTED MORE CURRENCY?
IT WOULD NOT BE FRAUD - BECAUSE IT JUST MAKING
ANOTHER PROMISE
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EARNINGS: $10,000
$10 EARNINGS:
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FULL FAITH AND CREDIT
PRINTING MORE STOCK CERTIFICATES
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INFLATION - REDUCING THE VALUE OF THE DOLLAR
$10/GALLON$1/GALLON $5/GALLON
Remarks by Governor Ben S. BernankeBefore the National Economists Club, Washington, D.C.November 21, 2002
What has this got to do with monetary policy? Like gold, U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services.
IN THIS CASE PRODUCTS DO NOT GAIN VALUE, THE DOLLAR LOSES
VALUE
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TREASURY NEEDS MONEY TO COVER THE DEFICIT, SO IT
BORROWS MONEY BY SELLING TREASURY BONDS.
HOW DOES THE FED CREATE CURRENCY?
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“CODE” FOR PRINTING MONEY:“EXPAND THE BALANCE SHEET”
“MONETIZING THE DEBT”“QUANTITATIVE EASING”
THE MARKET GETS MORE CURRENCY
HOW DOES THE FED CREATE CURRENCY?
LIABILITIESASSETS
NOW THE GOVERNMENT CAN PAY ITS BILLS FOR
A SHORT TIME...
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NOW THERE IS AN INCREASE OF US CURRENCY IN THE WORLD...
...BUT THERE IS NOT AN INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF GOODS
THUS WHILE THE FED HAS INCREASED THE CURRENCY SUPPLY, THE DEMAND FOR GOODS REMAINS THE SAME, SO THE CURRENCY’S VALUE DECREASES.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
SINCE A DOLLAR IS NOW NOT AS VALUABLE, WE HAVE TO EXCHANGE MORE DOLLARS FOR THE GOODS.
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NOT WORTH A CONTINENTAL
LESSONS FROM HISTORY
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SOAP: $50SUIT: $2700
LESSONS FROM HISTORY
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400,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
(FOUR HUNDRED OCTILLION) PENG! BECAME 1 FORINT.
LESSONS FROM HISTORY
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IN 1980, ZIMBABWE ISSUED A NEW DOLLAR CURRENCY IN WHICH 1 ZWD WAS
WORTH $1.47 UNITED STATES.
LESSONS FROM HISTORY
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IN FEBRUARY 2009 THE ZIMBABWE DOLLAR WAS RE-DENOMINATED FOR THE LAST TIME IN
$100,000,000,000,000 BILLS
LESSONS FROM HISTORY
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ZIMBABWE
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ANGOLA 1995 GERMANY 1923 POLAND 1923, 1992
ARGENTINA 1991 GREECE 1944 REPUBLIKA SRPSKA 1993
AUSTRIA 1922 HUNGARY 1924, 1946 ROMANIA 2005
BELARUS 2002 ISRAEL 1984 SOVIET UNION 1993
BOLIVIA 1984 KRAJINA 1993 TAIWAN 1949
BOSNIA 1993 MEXICO 1982 UKRAINE 1995
BRAZIL 1994 NORTH KOREA 2009 UNITED STATES 1779,
BULGARIA 1996 NICARAGUA 1990 YUGOSLAVIA 1993, 1865
CHINA 1272, 1948 PERU 1990 ZAIRE 1996
DANZIG 1923 PHILIPPINES 1944 ZIMBABWE 2008
PRINTING CURRENCY: COUNTRIES THAT SUFFERED HYPERINFLATION
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$1/GALLON $10/GALLON $100,000 $1,000,000
MORTGAGE$100K
MORTGAGE$100K
SAVERS LOSE - DEBT WINS
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WHAT IF YOU COULD PAY OFF YOUR MORTGAGE WITH THE SAME AMOUNT OF
MONEY IT COSTS TO BUY A BANANA!
INFLATION CAN BENEFIT A FIXED DEBT
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TREASURY NEEDS MONEY TO COVER THE DEFICIT, SO
IT BORROWS MONEY BY SELLING TREASURY
BONDS.
SO AGAIN, WHY DO WE DO THIS?
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TWO MARKETS
BOTH IMPACT ON SOVEREIGNS FUNDAMENTALS
EQUITIES MARKET
STOCKS = OWNERSHIP
COMMON
PREFERRED
PRIVATE OR PUBLIC
DEBT MARKET
BONDS = LOAN
CORPORATE
MUNICIPAL
TREASURY
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FOREIGN DEBTTHE US HAS A TRADE DEFICIT
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FINANCIAL STATEMENT TRADE DEFICIT
FOREIGN DEBT PRINTING CURRENCY
SOVEREIGN FUNDAMENTALS IMPACT SYSTEMIC RISK
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DOES THIS COUNTRY HAVE A STRONG ENOUGH GDP TO COLLECT ENOUGH TAXES THAT IT CAN PAY ITS BILLS?
DEBT TO GDP RATIO
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DEBT TO GDP = 234%
JAPAN
DOES THIS COUNTRY HAVE A STRONG ENOUGH GDP TO COLLECT ENOUGH TAXES
THAT IT CAN PAY ITS BILLS?
DEBT TO GDP RATIO EXAMPLE: JAPAN
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LONG TERM RESULTS OF JAPANESE QE POLICY
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200
150
100
50
0
234%
139%
DEBT AS % OF GDP*
99%
JAPAN GREECE UNITED STATES
COMPARISON
250
*SOURCE=IMF
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GREECE
FISCAL POLICY
MONETARY POLICY
GREECEEUROPEAN UNION
CENTRAL BANK
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IN THE SHADOW OF SOVEREIGN FUNDAMENTALS
CORPORATE
INCOME
EXPENSES
ASSETS LIABILITIES
PERSONAL
INCOME
EXPENSES
ASSETS LIABILITIES
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CORPORATE FINANCIAL STATEMENTS: Q4 2010
TRADING AT $300+ TRADING AT .06
APPLE COMPUTER BLOCKBUSTER VIDEO
$86 B
$54B
$32 B
LA
$6 B$21 B
$26 BI
E
$1.12B $1.16B
$789M
-$400M
$736MI
E
LA
-$53M
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VALUATION
HOW DO WE PRICE A COMPANY?
SUPPLY & DEMAND
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
PRICE = WHAT YOU PAY
HOW DO WE VALUE A COMPANY?
EARNINGS
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
VALUE = WHAT YOU GET FOR YOUR $$
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EARNINGS
COSTS: LEMONS, SUGAR, WATER, TAXES = $20
REVENUE: SALES, TIPS = $50
REVENUE - COSTS = EARNINGS
$50 - $20 = $30
EARNINGS = $30
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50 SHARES 50 SHARES
SHARES
100 SHARES
OWNER 1 OWNER 2
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EARNINGS PER SHARE
EARNINGS = $30
SHARES = $100
EARNINGS / SHARES = EARNINGS PER SHARE
$30 / 100 = .30
EARNINGS PER SHARE = .30
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PRICE EARNINGS RATIO
EARNINGS PER SHARE = .30
HOW MUCH ARE INVESTORS WILLING TO PAY EACH DOLLAR THE BUSINESS IS EARNING?
STOCK PRICE / EPS = PRICE EARNINGS RATIO
$3 / .30 = 10
PRICE EARNINGS RATIO = 10
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MARKET CAPITALIZATION
WHAT IS TO TOTAL COMPANY WORTH?
SHARE PRICE = $3
TOTAL NUMBER OF SHARES = 100
$3 X 100 = $300
SHARE PRICE X TOTAL SHARES = MARKET CAP
MARKET CAPITALIZATION = $300 (NANO CAP)
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Apple Once Again Bigger Than Exxon Mobil — For Good?
By Mark Gongloff
We’re all looking up to it now.Once more, this time with feeling, Apple is the biggest public company in America, topping Exxon Mobil.
As of last check, everybody’s favorite tech company had a market cap of $342.8 billion, compared with $339.7 billion for the oil behemoth.
WALL STREET JOURNAL
LARGE CAP: >$10 BILLION
MID CAP: $2-$10 BILLION
SMALL CAP: $300M-$10B
LARGE CAP, MID CAP, SMALL CAP
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MID CAP: $2-$10 BILLION
LARGE CAP: > $10 BILLION(SUPPOSEDLY WELL ESTABLISHED)
SMALL CAP: $300M-$10B(GROWTH POTENTIAL)
POTENTIAL GROWTHRISK
LARGE CAP, MID CAP, SMALL CAP
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$0
COMPANY XYZ
$0
EARNINGS GROWTH
COMPANY ABC
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PRICE EARNINGS GROWTH = 1
PRICE, EARNINGS, AND GROWTH (PEG)
PRICE EARNING RATIO = 10
PRICE EARNINGS RATIO/ % GROWTH = PEG
10/10 = 1
% GROWTH = 10
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10 P/EGROWTH OF 20%
20 P/EGROWTH OF 10%
10 P/EGROWTH OF 10%
PEG = .5
PEG = 2
PEG = 1
OVER VALUED
AVERAGE VALUE
UNDER VALUED
PEG TRIES TO GIVE A METRIC ON VALUE
LESS THAN .5 COULD MEAN TGTBT
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HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE OF THE COMPANY (5 YRS)
COMPARED TO OTHERS IN THE SAME SECTOR OR GROUP
CONSIDER BOTH CURRENT & FUTURE EARNINGS POTENTIAL
PRICE EARNINGS AND GROWTH
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BUSINESS
WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AN S-CORP,LP
LLC?WHAT FITS BEST?
COMMODITIES
HOW DOES A DOW TO GOLD RATIO
RELATE TO INFLATION?
WHAT IS A FIAT CURRENCY?
STOCKS
WHAT DOES A PEG, P/E
MARKET CAP MEAN & HOW DOES
IT RELATE TO VALUE?
REAL ESTATE
WHAT IS A 1031 EXCHANGE?
HOW MUCH WOULD IT HELP MY ME ON
MY TAXES THIS YEAR?
EACH ASSET CLASS HAS A VOCABULARY
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PRACTICE COMPARING THE VALUE SEVERAL STOCKS
MARKET CAP: TOTAL DOLLAR VALUE OF YOUR COMPANY
ENTERPRISE VALUE: VALUE OF COMPANY INCLUDING CASH & DEBT
TRAILING P/E: HOW MUCH YOU ARE PAYING FOR EARNINGS
FORWARD P/E: WHAT WILL YOU LIKELY PAY FOR EARNINGS
PRICE/EARNINGS AND GROWTH.PEG RATIO:
PRICE/SALES: HOW MUCH YOU ARE PAYING FOR REVENUE
PRICE/BOOK: HOW MUCH YOU ARE PAYING FOR THE ASSETS
Income
Expenses
Assets Liabilities
WEALTH BUILDING ACTIVITY
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APPLE INC. (AAPL)
GROWTH STOCK(CAPITAL GAIN)
PROCTER & GAMBLE CO. (PG)
DIVIDEND OR INCOME(CASH FLOW)
COMPARISON
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WHAT ARE YOU GOALS?
CAPITAL GAIN(FLIP THE HOUSE FOR PROFIT)
CASH FLOW(RENT THE HOUSE FOR INCOME)
HEDGE(BUY INSURANCE FOR PROTECTION)
BEFORE YOU INVEST
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CAPITAL GAIN(FLIP THE HOUSE FOR PROFIT)
I
E
LA
NET WORTH
NET WORTH
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CASH FLOW(RENT THE HOUSE FOR INCOME)
CASH FLOW
CASH FLOW
RENT
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INSURANCE
HEDGE(BUY INSURANCE FOR PROTECTION)
PROTECT ASSETS
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CAPITAL GAIN(BUY LOW SELL HIGH)
AMCE CO.STOCK
100 SHARES NET WORTH
NET WORTH
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DIVIDEND
CASH FLOWCOLLECT A DIVIDEND FOR INCOME
CASH FLOW
AMCE CO.STOCK
100 SHARES
CASH FLOW
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I
E
LA
INSURANCE
HEDGE(BUY A OPTION TO HEDGE RISK)
AMCE CO.PUT OPTION
100 SHARES
PROTECT ASSETS
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USING TECHNOLOGY
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USE SOFTWARE TO SEARCH
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ORGANIZE AND SORT
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FILTERS AND SCANS
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EXPERIAN, TRANSUNION
STANDARD AND POOR’SMOODY’S
PERSONAL CORPORATE SOVEREIGN
DEBT CRITICAL TO FUNDAMENTALS
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DEBT IS AN OBLIGATION CREDIT IS POWER
POWER IS REDUCED BY ABUSE
DEBT AND CREDIT
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ABUSING CREDIT POWER
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WISE USE OF CREDIT TO PROSPER
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TO APPROACHES TO CONTROLLING POWER
REMOVE THE POWER FROM THE PEOPLE TO PREVENT IMPROPER USE
INCREASE THE POWER AND EDUCATE PEOPLE ON ITS PROPER USE
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ORGANIZE YOUR PERSONAL FINANCIAL STATEMENT
JOB
I
E
A L
PAYMENTS
-
-
=
DEFICIT= - NET
WORTH
MORTGAGE
LOANS
TAXES
ACTIVE INCOME
BAD CREDIT / NO CREDIT
I
E
A L-
-
=
SURPLUS= + NET
WORTH
PASSIVE INCOME
EXCELLENT CREDIT / HIGH LIMITS
STOCKSCOMMODITIESREAL ESTATE
BUSINESS
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IMPROVING PERSONAL FUNDAMENTALS
GET A BETTER JOB OR GET A SECOND JOB
SCHOOL # 1 : GET A JOB”
JOB
I
E
A L
PAYMENTS
-
-
=
DEFICIT= - NET
WORTH
MORTGAGE
LOANS
TAXES
ACTIVE INCOME
BAD CREDIT / NO CREDIT
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CUT EXPENSES LOWER YOU LIFESTYLE
SCHOOL # 2 : ACT YOUR WAGE”
IMPROVING PERSONAL FUNDAMENTALSJOB
I
E
A L
PAYMENTS
-
-
=
DEFICIT= - NET
WORTH
MORTGAGE
LOANS
TAXES
ACTIVE INCOME
BAD CREDIT / NO CREDIT
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IMPROVING PERSONAL FUNDAMENTALS
GET EDUCATEDBUILD BUYING POWER
& USE IT TO BUY ASSETS
SCHOOL # 3 : INCREASE EDUCATION, CREDIT & ASSETS”
I
E
A L
-
-
=
SURPLUS= + NET
WORTH
PASSIVE INCOME
EXCELLENT CREDIT / HIGH LIMITS
STOCKSCOMMODITIESREAL ESTATE
BUSINESS
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YOU HAVE JUST COMPLETED
BASIC FUNDAMENTAL
ANALYSIS
CONGRATULATIONS!