Aspects covered:

• Air Pollution in Europe: problems and responses• The role and aims of the RAPIDC Programme • Impacts of air pollution at different scales and their linkages• Integrated assessment

PROGRESS IN THE RAPIDC PROGRAMME: Providing Scientific Knowledge for Policy Making

on Air Pollution

Johan Kuylenstierna, SEI

THE EUROPEAN

EXPERIENCE

London Smog Disaster, 1952

Between 4000-12000 excess deaths

Clean Air Act

1950s –1960s European cities deal with urban air pollution

Lake and river acidification in Scandinavia

1970s/80s Understanding grows that transboundary air pollution was damaging ecosystems in Scandinavia, central Europe and the UK

Forest damage in Germany

1979 UN/ECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP)

1979/80 The EMEP Protocol

1980s/90s The SOx, NOx, VOC, Hms and POPS protocols

1999 ‘Multi-pollutant-multi-effect’ – Protocol to abate acidification, eutrophication and ground-level ozone

2000 - New, more stringent, targets being set by UN/ECE & EC

European Inter-governmental Policy Process

UN-ECE Convention on LRTAP Structure

Benefits of International Co-operation within Regional Agreements

• only way to deal with regional problems

• regional focus can also help develop responses to local problems

• Even weak demands means some action taken by worst performers

• exchange of information amongst national advisors and scientists

• Information for international agreements increases awareness

• agreements attract media attention raising the profile

The Progression of Sulphur Emissions in Different Regions

PROGRAMME ON RAPIDC

FUNDED BY Sida

COORDINATED BY SEI

CARRIED OUT BY MANY PARTNERS

Acidification

HealthComposition of AsianDeposition (CAD)

Monitoring Support for

Malé

Informationfor the

Policy Process

APMA/CAI-AsiaAsianCities

Monitoringand

Modelling

Atmospheric Modelling

Emissions

Integrated AssessmentModelling

Regional ImpactsAcidification etc.

AssessmentRapid Urban

Corrosion

Crops and Forests

Network Development Malé Declaration

Impacts of Air Pollution

RAPIDC activities help inform the Malé Declaration

Malé Declaration Network Meeting, 2001

The Malé Declaration Structure

Steering Committee(NFPs, SACEP,

UNEP)

Technical Committee (NIAs, MoC, SACEP,

SEI, UNEP)

Country

NFP

NIA

National Advisory Committee

Knowledge Required by Policy Makers

EMISSIONS, TRANSFER

AND DEPOSITION

EDGAR emissions of sulphur in S Asia

National Emission Inventories

A Malé Declaration emission inventory manual is being prepared.

A process of developing inventories in the next phase will give rise to nationally derived emissions for important pollutants

MATCH model run for emission region ‘India south-central’ (Andhra Pradesh + Karnataka + Goa)

POLLUTION MONITORING ACTIVITIES

Installing monitoring at Nepal Site

Installing Passive Samplers in Nepal

Transportation to the Monitoring Site in Nepal

Monthly deposition data at Bhubaneshwar – part of CAD network

Impacts of Air Pollution at Different Scales

Peri-urbanHousehold RegionalUrban

AIR POLLUTION IMPACTS ON

HEALTH

Indoor Air Pollution

In India 62% of households use wood or agricultural waste, 15% use dung

Estimated as one of largest risk factors for mortality globally

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Women Children Young people Men

Winter

Summer

Mea

n d

aily

in

teg

rate

d

exp

os

ure

(T

SP

mg

/m3

)Indoor Air Pollution: women and children

are particularly at risk

Exposure data for rural hilly area of India

Indoor Air Pollution: biomass burning increases outdoor concentrations also

Urban neighbourhood of Pune, India

Indoor Air Pollution: biomass burning increases outdoor concentrations also

Outdoor Air Pollution and Health

Health Benefits to Children from Air Pollution Reduction in Hong Kong

Urban Particulate Matter

Urban PM10 concentrations in Indian cities

Particulate matter one of the major air pollution causes of mortality and morbidity

PM10 and PM2.5 used to characterise exposure

About 62 million people live in these cities in India

PM linked to excess mortality – shortening lifespans by many years

Some of the WHO-recommended Dose-response Relationships for PM10 and health impacts

Economic Implications of Health Impacts – results from the URBAIR project

0

50

100

150

200

Mumbai Metro Manila Jakarta KathmanduValley

US

$ m

illi

on

s (

p.a

.)

Mortality

Morbidity

More than 8000 people were admitted to hospital in Malaysia due to Indonesian fires in September 1997

Air pollution – a transboundary health problem

RAPIDC Activities on Health

• Book on air pollution and health

• Documenting proven benefits of reducing air pollution to health

• Developing manual for epidemiological studies

• Testing whether airport visibility data can be used to estimate PM2.5

• Indoor air pollution measurements in houses using kerosine compared to biomass

• Health/corrosion meeting – early 2004

AIR POLLUTION IMPACTS ON

CROPS

Impacts on Crops and Forests

VISIBLE INJURY

Ozone induced injury on clover and white pine

Ozone induced injury to muskmelon and peach trees in the Mediterranean region

Dose-response relationships: Crop yield reductions due to O3 from European data

Lahore - rural

UK - rural

Lahore - urban

Invisible Injury: as shown by filtration experiments

O3 injury to wheat whole plant growth, Pakistan(courtesy of A. Wahid)

Open Top Chamber Facilities. Lahore, Pakistan

Invisible injury: O3 impacts on wheat grain size from Filtration experiments in Pakistan

(courtesy of A. Wahid)

Invisible Injury: as shown by filtration experiments

Yield of rice in ambient compared to filtered air outside Lahore

Air Pollution/crop Impacts and Livelihoods

Peri-urban / Urban agriculture Important for:

• Food for home consumption / bartering

• Crop residues to maintain live-stock

• Crop residues for fuel supplies

• Provides seasonal employment

Air Pollution affects Peri-Urban / Urban agriculture by:

• crop yield reductions

• decrease in crop nutritional quality

• Visible damage to edible portions of crop

Effect on Vulnerable social groups

Maximum mean growing season O3 concentrations for 1990 Emberson et al. (2000)

Reported sites of visible ozone injury

Maximum mean growing season O3 concentrations for 2030

Emberson et al. (2000)

Chinese dose-response curves for SO2 impacts on crops

Kathmandu

Chongqing, 2000Chongqing, 1996Mumbai

Dhaka

Asian Air Pollution Network : Current Extent

Developed as part of RAPIDC “Crops & Forests” project

• Air pollution effects scientists• Air pollution modellers & mappers• Policy makers

The network (35 scientists) will meet at AIT Bangkok in December 2003 to discuss:

• impacts in Asia

• Harmonising experimental procedures

• Consolidating a network to pool knowledge, methods and results

RAPIDC Activities on Crops

AIR POLLUTION IMPACTS ON CORROSION

Air Pollution and Corrosion in Europe

Impacts in Central Germany

Steel corrosion in Kopisty, Czech Republic

Limestone / marble affected by SO2 pollution

Industry in Agra relocated or shut down

Corrosion Impacts on the

Taj Mahal

Impacts on Materials in Tropical/Sub-tropical Climates

RAPIDC Corrosion Impact Activities in Asia/Africa

Exposures to develop the dose-response relationships for standard materials relevant to tropical and subtropical conditions

Comparison of sulphur dioxide concentrations for the various exposure sites in the RAPIDC programme for a

selected exposure period

0

20

40

60

80

100

SO

2 /

ug

m-3

Estimation of Losses due to Corrosion

Dose Response Relationships

Mass Loss = {f[SO2].fRH-fT+fRain[H+]}. fTime of Wetness

Economic Evaluations

Link dose-response to Stock at Risk and cost of maintenance/replacement

European Experience

Damage per Tonne SO2 emitted between $86-$1614

Savings estimated at $9000 Million per year when 2nd S protocol achieved

INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF REGIONAL

AIR POLLUTION

Emission workbook

Emission Manual

S, N Deposition (by grid)

Ecosystem sensitivity

Risk areas

ScenarioEmission inventory

Prevention Controloptions options

Policy instruments

Energy, transport and industryscenarios

Emissions by 1ox1o grid

Health impacts

Ozone PM2.5

Crop yield losses

New Deposition

Transfer coefficient (region-to-grid)

MATCH atmospheric transport model (at SMHI/ UNEP etc.)

PHASE III: Other pollutants and impacts

INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT

AT URBAN SCALES

a) APMA, linked with CAI-AsiaBenchmarking of Urban Air Quality Management for 30 Asian Cities: current status and management practice

Strategic Framework for Air Quality Mangement for Asian Cities

Regional Workshops on Better Air Quality Management in Asia (BAQ 2003 will be held in Manilla 17-19 December with CAI-Asia

b) Rapid Urban AssessmentMethodology being applied in Hyderabad to test suitability

Rapid emissions inventory using statistics and land use assessment from satellite imagery

Simple urban transfer model to give concentrations and link to simple health impact assessments

To be described in detail at health/ corrosion workshop in 2004

Developing a Regional Science/Policy Process on Air Pollution in Southern Africa: APINA Meeting, 2002

Draft ‘Maputo Declaration’ at recent policy dialogue

Conclusions

• Regional cooperation has helped Europe tackle its transboundary and local air pollution problems

• Health impacts and crop yield losses will be felt more acutely by poor people

• Health, crop yield losses and corrosion have significant, but poorly quantified economic consequences

• Emissions are always local; impacts may be local, regional or transboundary

• The Malé Declaration is an important regional forum for scientific information provision and transfer and policy development