aspire: the atlas of social protection and labor...

Maddalena Honorati

Pension Core Course

Washington, DC

Apri l 27, 2016

ASPIRE: THE

ATLAS OF SOCIAL

PROTECTION AND

LABOR

INDICATORS

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FIND ASPIRE AT

WWW.WORLDBANK.ORG/ASPIRE

1. Why ASPIRE?

Objectives

2. What is ASPIRE?

Indicator types

Social protection and labor programs classification

Limitations and caveats

3. How is ASPIRE useful?

4. Where are we?

5. Navigate the ASPIRE website

OUTLINE

1. Build empirical evidence on SPL program performance to inform the design of programs and policies By compiling and maintaining a comprehensive,

standardized and up-to-date database of SPL indicators

2. Benchmarking indicators across countries and time Harmonization methodology to ensure comparability of

indicators

3. Contribute to improve the quality, availability, comparability of household surveys and administrative data on SPL

WHY ASPIRE? OBJECTIVES

1. Why ASPIRE?

Objectives

2. What is ASPIRE?

Indicator types

Social protection and labor program classification



4. Where are we?


OUTLINE

1. A database of comparable indicators to

monitor SPL performance over time and

across countries

2. PUBLIC GOOD for practitioners, policy -

makers, researchers. It is FOR YOUR USE!

3. Based on data collected BY YOU, through

national statistical offices and program

agencies

WHAT IS ASPIRE?

Country context

• Country level indicators describing the socio-economic context where SPL programs operate [demographic patters, living arrangements, primary activity rates, age-based poverty rates, employment status, employment structure by sector]

Spending and program size

•Program level public spending and number of beneficiaries based on administrative data

Performance

•Program level indicators of program performance measured by coverage of the poor, targeting accuracy, adequacy, impacts on poverty and inequality reduction

ASPIRE INDICATOR TYPES

Demographic patterns Share of children, youth, working age, elderly

Living arrangements Elderly with non-elderly co-residence

Dependency rates

Share of households with elderly

Share of households with children

Age-based poverty rates

Labor market status Share of employed, unemployed, inactive

Employment structure by status Share of employed who are wage employees, employers, self -employed, unpaid.

Employment structure by sector Share of employed in agriculture, industry , services

COUNTRY CONTEXT

INDICATORS

Disaggregated

by

• Gender

• Age groups

• Urban/rural

Spending

as % of GDP

as % of total public spending on SPL

Number of beneficiaries

as % of total population

as % of elderly population

SPENDING AND PROGRAM

SIZE

Disaggregated

by

• program

Coverage: Coverage: as % of the poor (poorest 20%, <$1.25 a day), % of

total population

Program duplication and overlap: % of population receiving 0, one or more benefits

Target ing accuracy Benefit incidence: % of benefits going to the poorest quintile

Beneficiary incidence: % of beneficiaries in poorest quintile

Benefit level Average transfer per capita: daily USD PPP, 2005

Adequacy of benefits: total transfer amount as a fraction of total consumption

Impacts and ef f ic iency Impact on poverty reduction % of pre-transfer poverty (HC or

poverty gap) due to transfer

Impact on inequality reduction % of pre-transfer inequality (Gini) due to transfer

Benefit -cost ratio: % reduction in poverty gap obtained for each $1 spent in SPL programs

PROGRAM PERFORMANCE

INDICATORS

1. Administrative program level data:

Official government reports /websites

Information collected by local consultants from government when official data are not available

Directly provided by government officials

Published WB and other DPs country reports

2. Nationally representative household surveys:

HH income expenditure/budget surveys

LSMS

Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICs)

Welfare Monitoring Surveys

LFS

ASPIRE DATA SOURCES

•Social assistance/SSN (Non-contributory)SA

•Labor Market Programs (Active and passive) LM

•Social Insurance (Contributory)SI

ASPIRE CLASSIFICATION OF SPL

PROGRAMS

Classification Typology

Cash transfers Cash transfers (poverty targeted, categorical)

Low Income/last resort program

Family allowances

Conditional cash transfers Conditional cash transfers

Social pensions Non-contributory old age social pensions

Veteran pensions

Disability benefits

In kind transfers Food stamps and vouchers

Supplementary feeding

Emergency food distribution

Public Works Cash for work

Food for work

Fee waivers Health waivers and targeted subsidies

School Feeding School Feeding

Other social assistance programs Scholarships

Other SA

SOCIAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS

(NOT CONTRIBUTORY)

Contributory and earnings related

pensions

Other social insurance

Old age pensions

National scheme

Civil servant

Other special

Disability pensions

National scheme

Civil servant

Other special

Survivorship pensions

National scheme

Civil servant

Other special

Occupational injuries

Sickness/injury leave

Maternity/Paternity benefits

Other social insurance

SOCIAL INSURANCE PROGRAMS

(CONTRIBUTORY)

LM policy services

(intermediation)

LM policy measures

(active LM programs)

LM policy supports

(passive LM

programs)

Job search and

intermediation

services through

public employment

services (PES)

Labor market training

(vocational, life skills)

Employment incentives

(wage subsidies)

Employment measures

for disabled

Startup incentives

(cash and in kind grant,

loans) to support

entrepreneurship

Unemployment

insurance

(contributory)

Unemployment

assistance (non-

contributory)

LABOR MARKET (LM)

PROGRAMS

VALIDATION AND QUALITY ASSURANCE

PROCESS

UNDERSTAND

COUNTRY’S SP

SYSTEMS

COMPARE WITH

OFFICIAL GOVERNME

NT SOURCES AND

REPORTS

CONTRAST WITH

EXISTING INTERNATIO

NAL DATABASES

CROSS-TIME CONSISTENC

Y CHECKS

VALIDATE WITH

COUNTRY TEAMS:

VALIDATE WITH

GOVERNMENTS:

The level and quality of information on specific SP transfers

and programs captured in the household surveys can vary a

lot across countries.

If the monetary transfer amount is not asked in the survey,

indicators of adequacy and benefit incidence cannot be

generated

ASPIRE reflects what is available in the hh surveys, which often

does not represent the full portfolio pf programs in the

country

this undermines the comparability of indicators

LIMITATIONS AND CAVEATS

1. Why ASPIRE?

Objectives

2. What is ASPIRE?

Indicator types




4. Where are we?


OUTLINE

How is the country socio economic context where SPL programs operate?

What are the trends in the number of beneficiaries covered? How does it vary by quintile of the consumption distribution?

What are the types of benefits?

Are benefits adequate?

Which percentage of benefits is going to poorest quintiles?

How much do countries spend on SPL programs?

What is the impact of SPL programs on poverty and inequality reduction?

ASPIRE ANSWERS:

COUNTRIES SPEND 1.6 (% OF GDP) ON SSN,

ALTHOUGH THE LEVEL VARIES BY REGION

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Su

da

n

Ca

me

roo

n

Nig

eri

a

Zim

ba

bw

e

Ma

li

To

go

Ca

bo

Ve

rde

Ug

an

da

Eth

iop

ia

Mo

zam

biq

ue

Nig

er

Rw

an

da

Se

ych

elle

s

Ke

nya

Ma

uri

tiu

s

Bu

run

di

Le

so

tho

Va

nu

atu

Ph

ilip

pin

es

Vie

tna

m

Ch

ina

Ma

lays

ia

Sa

mo

a

Kir

iba

ti

Mo

ng

olia

Aze

rba

ija

n

Ka

zak

hsta

n

Ma

ce

do

nia

, FY

R

Tu

rke

y

Mo

ldo

va

Po

lan

d

Se

rbia

Slo

va

k R

ep

ub

lic

Slo

ve

nia

Esto

nia

Ru

ssia

n F

ed

era

tio

n

Uk

rain

e

Bo

sn

ia

Pa

rag

ua

y

Gu

ate

ma

la

Co

sta

Ric

a

Do

min

ica

n R

ep

.

El S

alv

ad

or

Ho

nd

ura

s

Gu

yan

a

Bo

livia

St.

Kit

tis

Tri

nit

ad

Be

lize

St.

Vin

ce

nt-

a

Nic

ara

gu

a

Djib

ou

ti

Jord

an

Ku

wa

it

Le

ba

no

n

Ye

me

n

Ira

q

Bh

uta

n

Ba

ngla

de

sh

Ne

pa

l

Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia and the Pacific Eastern Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and North South Asia

SS

N s

pe

nd

ing

, p

erc

en

t o

f G

DP

Region/country

Average=1.60%

OECD=2.92%

86

68

4941 38

30

11

25

42

43

34

29

14

2

4

10

22

1 3 612

18 18

Sub-Saharan

Africa

South Asia East Asia Middle East -

North Africa

Latin America Easter Europe

and Central Asia

No transfer Only Social Assistance Only Social Insurance At least one SP benefit

MOST OF THE POPULATION IN NEED

RECEIVE NO SPL TRANSFERS

COVERAGE OF SOCIAL ASSISTANCE

PROGRAMS IS HIGHER IN RURAL

Pe

rce

nt

of

tota

l p

op

ula

tio

n

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

Social Safety Nets Social Insurance Labor Market

Urban Rural

COVERAGE OF SA PROGRAMS

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

ECA Latin

America

Middle East Africa East Asia South Asia

Other

Social

pensions

School

feeding

Public

works

In kind

UCT

CCT

SOCIAL ASSISTANCE INTERVENTIONS

VARY BY REGION

Coverage of poorest population

COVERAGE OF SOCIAL INSURANCE

(% OF TOTAL POPULATION)

42

18

12

32

11

11

3

5

24 4

1

7

21

Europe & Central

Asia

Latin America Middle East East Asia &

Pacific

Africa South Asia

Contributory Pensions Other Social Insurance Social pensions

PENSION COVERAGE

(% OF TOTAL POPULATION)

13

19

37

01

10

11 1

9

3

Low income Lower middle income Upper middle income High income

Contributory Pensions Other Social Insurance Social Pensions

GLOBAL COVERAGE OF POOREST

HH BY PROGRAM TYPE

Years: 2000—2013 (112 countries)

3.9 4.3

8.310.5 10.6 11.0 11.6

13.2

18.8

27.2

30.2

38.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

BENEFITS INCIDENCE OF SSN

CCT ARE AMONG THE BEST TARGETED

FORM OF CASH TRANSFERS

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5

CT CCT Social pensions

Pro

-po

or

TARGETING ACCURACY (% OF BENEFITS

TO POOREST QUINTILE): CCT PROGRAMS

Between 2008 -2012.

57 56 56 55

4846 46

4240 40 38

28 2723 23

SSN ADEQUACY FOR THE POOR VARIES BY

COUNTRY

Between 2012--2014

48

41

41

38

33

30

24

22

22

21

20

19

18

18

17

16

16

16

14

14

11

7

6

5

Argentina-2012

Brazil-2012

Ecuador-2012

Bolivia-2012

Ukraine-2013

Average Social Pension

Average UCT

Average CCT

Romania-2012

Armenia-2013

Panama-2012

Mongolia-2012

Poland-2012

Mexico-2012

Average PW

Albania-2012

Philippines-2013

Colombia-2012

Peru-2012

Iraq-2012

Turkey-2012

Sri Lanka-2012

Pakistan-2013

Vietnam-2014

ADEQUACY OF CONTRIBUTORY PENSIONS

(% OF CONSUMPTION)

Between 2012--2014

74

68

59

55

47

46

43

42

40

40

36

36

35

33

32

32

30

30

30

28

21

20

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Poland- 2012

Romania-2012

Ukraine-2013

Belarus-2012

Brazil-2012

Uruguay-2012

Mexico-2012

Turkey-2012

Ecuador-2012

Moldova-2013

Mauritius-2012

Argentina-2012

Djibouti-2012

Albania-2012

Sri Lanka-2012

Armenia-2013

Pakistan-2013

Philippines-2013

Colombia-2012

Chile-2013

Peru-2012

Iraq-2012

1. Why ASPIRE?

Objectives

2. What is ASPIRE?

Indicator types




4. Where are we?


OUTLINE

External Portal: Performance indicators

based on HH surveys for 115 developing

countries - between 1998-2014:

External portal updated twice a year

User friendly tableau dashboards

WHERE ARE WE?

1. Why ASPIRE?

Objectives

2. What is ASPIRE?

Indicator types




4. Where are we?


OUTLINE

FIND ASPIRE AT

WWW.WORLDBANK.ORG/ASPIRE

PROGRAM DOCUMENTATION

Thank you!!

aspire: the atlas of social protection and labor...

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