assessing natural hazard risk in urban areas henrike brecht louisiana state university emergency...
TRANSCRIPT
Assessing Natural Hazard
Risk in Urban Areas
Henrike BrechtLouisiana State University
Emergency Management Higher Education Conference, June 7, 2007
Why a Risk Index?
Identifying Risk: Key element in disaster reduction Enables informed policy making
Index: Summarizes a body of knowledgeEasy to understandFacilitates comparisons
Emergency Management Higher Education Conference, June 7, 2007
Urban Risk Index
Follow-up of World Bank Disaster Hotspots
Multi-hazard index All cities worldwide with more than
100,000 inhabitants Outcome: Relative risks of
mortalityeconomic losses
Emergency Management Higher Education Conference, June 7, 2007
What is Risk?
Risk = Hazard x Exposed Elements x Vulnerability
Hazard Derived from historic hazard data
Exposed Elements City Population City GDP
Vulnerability Population vulnerability: derived from historic
death tolls Economic vulnerability: derived from historic
economic losses
Emergency Management Higher Education Conference, June 7, 2007
Data Inputs: Hazards Five major hazards
Vector data was gridded, raster data was resampled at 1 km resolution.
Emergency Management Higher Education Conference, June 7, 2007
Data Inputs: Cyclones
Emergency Management Higher Education Conference, June 7, 2007
Data Inputs: Landslides
Emergency Management Higher Education Conference, June 7, 2007
Data Inputs: Floods
Emergency Management Higher Education Conference, June 7, 2007
Data Inputs: Earthquakes
Emergency Management Higher Education Conference, June 7, 2007
Data Inputs: Exposed Elements
City population numbers (Henderson)
City GDP (World Bank) City footprints: GRUMP (Global
Rural-Urban Mapping Project) by CIESIN
Emergency Management Higher Education Conference, June 7, 2007
Data Inputs: Exposed Elements
Emergency Management Higher Education Conference, June 7, 2007
Data Inputs: Vulnerability
Not based on social vulnerability indicators
Damage rates by hazard EM-DAT (Emergency Disaster
Database) Population vulnerability:
historic death tolls per hazard Economic vulnerability:
economic loss rate per hazard
Emergency Management Higher Education Conference, June 7, 2007
Outcomes
For each cityMortality risk index Economic risk index
Relative risk levels
Emergency Management Higher Education Conference, June 7, 2007
Earthquake Mortality Risk
Emergency Management Higher Education Conference, June 7, 2007
Conclusion
Index is a comprehensive summary and enables comparisons
Guides policy making and resource allocation
Index creation is impeded due to lack of accurate data
Macro analysis which does not replace careful risk assessments for cities
Emergency Management Higher Education Conference, June 7, 2007
A Glance Ahead
Individual city assessment Improve global flood and
landslide hazard data Improve global loss data
Emergency Management Higher Education Conference, June 7, 2007
