assessing real estate & financial markets: a macro...
TRANSCRIPT
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Assessing Real Estate & Financial Markets: A Macro Economic View
Prepared for
14th Annual UC Berkeley Fisher Center for Real Estate Conference – St. Francis Hotel, San
Francisco
Prepared by
Lawrence Souza, CRE/RICS/CCIM
- Principal - Real Estate-Financial Economist / Advisor / BrokerJohnson Souza Group, Inc.
- Professor – Real Estate/Finance/Economics Tue 04/14/09
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• Over 20 years of real estate economic and financialresearch, and institutional due diligence underwriting.Specializes in apartment and commercial market research,valuation and brokerage services.
• Offering tax deferred vehicles: 1031 Exchanges, Tenantsin Common (TIC), Deferred Sales Trusts (DST), etc.; andreal estate related investments: partnerships, funds, REITs,etc.
Johnson Souza Group, Inc
Contact Information: www.the-commercial-group.com
[email protected] Direct: (415) 713-0213 Fax: (415) 826-2216
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• Introduction• Business/Commercial Real Estate Cycles• Commercial Capital Market Fundamentals• Commercial Mortgage Lending• Appendix
Introduction
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Introduction
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• Economy in decline/trough phase, employment contractionbottoming: 36-to-60 month trough, decline from August 2007.
• Economic contraction - bottom 2/3Q 09’, moderate growth 10’.
• Next business-commercial real estate cycle peak 2015 - 2020,technology-employment cycle peak 2016 – 2018, potential rentspikes.
• Target markets for commercial real estate investment 2009-2010:
Business-Market Cycle Overview
Downtown San Francisco/San Jose; I-680/880 Corridors-Walnut Creek/San Ramon/Pleasanton/Fremont; SF Peninsula-Redwood City/Palo Alto; Marin/Santa Cruz Counties
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Institutional Foundations for Efficient Capital Markets
“Efficient real estate and securities capitalmarkets require strong public and private sectorcooperation, disclosure of government andcorporate financial conditions, and institutionaland individual investor confidence in financial andpolitical institutions.”
Lawrence Souza
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• $11 trillion public debt outstanding, $55 billion in interest; Total Debt-to-GDP to reach ~100% by 2015 Crowding Out Effect ~ High Inflation Expectations and Interest Rates ~ Fiscal/Monetary Policy Ineffectiveness
• $1.2 trillion annual budget deficit, not including $600 billion forIraq War 2004 – 2009; defense budget up 41% since 2001
• Administration to cut deficit in half by 2009, over optimisticassumptions for rising tax revenue, excluding cost ofIraq/Afghanistan wars ($100 + billion in 2008)
• Fed will spend $300 billion over 6 mths to buy L-T T-Bills/Bonds,total $1.2 trillion, already has $2 trillion on balance sheet
• Budget deficits to total $10 trillion over next 10 years.
• Foreigners currently own 47% of U.S. government debt(China/Japan)
US Budget Deficits
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Business and Commercial Real Estate Cycles
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Income and WagesAverage Hourly Earnings of Production Workers
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. http://www.bls.gov
Zero Real Wage Growth
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Change in Net WorthTrade balance roughly zero from 1960 through 1981, fell to -173 billion as of October 2007.
Increasing probability of a international financial crisis.
Faster rates of capital accumulation due to foreign direct investment in manufacturing
production, services, and technology sectors.
CHANGE IN NET W ORTH(end of year to end of year)
-$14,000 .0-$12,000 .0-$10,000 .0
-$8,000 .0-$6,000 .0-$4,000 .0-$2,000 .0
$0 .0$2,000 .0$4,000 .0$6,000 .0$8,000 .0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times
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Personal Savings Rate
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. http://www.bea.gov/briefrm/saving.htm
Deleveraging Contributing to Fall in Aggregate Demand
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World GDP Growth Rates
2004 2005
Wld 3.6% 2.9%
U.S. 4.4% 3.6%
Eur 1.8% 0.9%
Jap 4.0% 2.3%
China 9.2% 8.0%
Gross National Product (GDP)
Q4 08’ -6.2%
http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/newsrel/gdp_glance.htm. http://www.conference-board.org/economics/ConsumerConfidence.cfm
e e e
1Q09f = -5.4%, worst in 28 yrs.
= -6.4% 1982
36-to-60 month trough
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Retail SalesTrade balance roughly zero from 1960 through 1981, fell to -173 billion as of October 2007.
Increasing probability of a international financial crisis.
Faster rates of capital accumulation due to foreign direct investment in manufacturing
production, services, and technology sectors.
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Corporate Profits
http://www.bea.gov/briefrm/corpprof.htm
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Non-Residential Fixed Investment
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. http://www.bea.gov/briefrm/nonresfi.htm
20 Yr. Avg. Ann. Tot. Ret. 10%: 2% Earnings, 3% Inflation, 4% Dividends, 1% multiple expansion.
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Real Residential Fixed Investment
http://www.bea.gov/briefrm/resfi.htm
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Non-Farm Payroll Employment
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. http://www.bls.gov
5.0% Avg
YOY Feb 2009 Total = -4,200,000
-2.5% Avg
YOY Jan 2009 California -3.3%
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U.S. Unemployment Rate
5.0% Natural Rate (NAIRU)
Feb’09 8.1%
http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Well Above
Natural rate, Dis-Inflation Exposure
California 10.1%
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San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet
Monthly % Year-Over-Year Non-Farm Employment Growth Rates
-2.9% YOY Jan.
09 (-58.5k)
4.3% YOY
Aug.00 (88.8k)
-5.6% YOY
Mar.02 (-120.5k)
2.1% YOY
Jun.06 (41.1k)
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Commercial Real Estate Capital Market Fundamentals
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Inflation ExpectationsU.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) – Finished Goods
http://www.bls.gov/home.htm
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Average monthly year-over-year change, 2.8% (1968), 6.4% (1978), 2.0% (1988), -1.6% (1998), 6.9% (2008).
Mar’08 6.9%
Highest Dec. ‘81
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Yield 10-Year Treasury
10-Year Treasury Yield up over 157 basis points since June 03’ due to rising inflation expectations, geo-political risk, and government deficit financing; below historical averages at this point in the growth phase of the business cycle due to
massive foreign central bank intervention (China/Japan)
Imputed Mtg. Int. Rt. 2.93% + 2% = 5% ~
http://finance.yahoo.com/
8.75% Avg. 600 bpts below historical averages
http://finance.yahoo.com
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Yield Curve
http://stockcharts.com/charts/YieldCurve.html
-400 bsp since 2005Objective: Steep Rebuild Interest Margin, Loan Loss Reserves, Reserve Capital, etc.
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REIT Equity Stock Index Performance – Dow Jones
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=REIT&t=my
-59% from Peak
FFO Yields (Equity Cost of Capital) ~ 15% -to- 25%
35% -to- 80% Value Declines Depending on
Sector/Portfolio/Management
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Commercial Mortgage Back Securities (CMBS) Issuance
http://www.cmsaglobal.org/uploadedFiles/CMSA_Site_Home/Industry_Resources/Research/Industry_Statistics/CMSA_Compendium.pdf
-93%
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CMBS Spreads – Investment Grade vs. 10 Yr. Treasury
http://www.cmsaglobal.org/uploadedFiles/CMSA_Site_Home/Industry_Resources/Research/Industry_Statistics/CMSA_Compendium.pdf
35% -to- 50% Imputed Debt Cost of Capital
IRR = WACC = 25% -to- 35%[35% -to- 50% Imputed Debt Cost of Capital] * 50% +
[15% -to- 25% Imputed Equity Cost of Capital] * 50%
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Commercial Property Sales Volume (From 2001 to 2008)
http://www.mbaa.org/files/Research/DataBooks/3Q08QuarterlyDataBook.pdf
-75%~85%
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Commercial Property – Capitalization Rates (2001-2008)
http://www.mbaa.org/files/Research/DataBooks/3Q08QuarterlyDataBook.pdf
Cap Rates to Rise 150-to-200 bsp
From 6%-to-8% in Some Sectors (Supply Constrained)
And to 10% form some Sector/Regions (Commodity)
8%-to-16% NOI Declines
Potential Intrinsic Devaluation = 30%-to-50%*
* Assumes 16% drop NOI, Cap rates to 10%
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Commercial Property Value Indices (From 2000 to 2008)
http://www.mbaa.org/files/Research/DataBooks/3Q08QuarterlyDataBook.pdf
-13%
25-to-35% Value Decline over 24-to-18 months
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Non-Residential Commercial Construction Spending Forecast – Decrease by 11% in 2009
http://www.aia.org/aiarchitect/thisweek09/0116/0116n_consensus.cfm
Commercial / industrial 2009 2010
• Hotels -20.2% -12.2%
• Retail -19.2% -6.6%
• Office buildings -17.5% -11.1%
• Industrial facilities -11.2% -8.4%
Institutional 2009 2010
• Religious -9.4% 1.4%
• Education -7.4% -1.9%
• Amusement / recreation -5.9% 1.0%
• Health care facilities -3.6% -1.9%
• Public safety -3.5% -1.9%
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Commercial Mortgage Lending
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Commercial Mortgage Debt Outstanding – (From 1980 to 2008)
http://www.mbaa.org/files/Research/DataBooks/3Q08QuarterlyDataBook.pdf
Growth 10% Per Year: 1995-2008
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Commercial Mortgage Debt Exposure
http://www.mbaa.org/files/Research/DataBooks/3Q08QuarterlyDataBook.pdf
Massive Bank Balance Sheet, Capital Market, and Tax Payer and Default Risk Exposure
$3.4 trillion Outstanding: Banks (49%), CMBS (22%)
Source: Jim Valente, Kennedy Associates, Institutional Real Estate Letter, April 2009.
Next 4 Years: $200 billion per year coming due, will need to be refinanced, escalating until 2015.
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Commercial Mortgage Back Securities (CMBS) Delinquency
http://www.cmsaglobal.org/uploadedFiles/CMSA_Site_Home/Industry_Resources/Research/Industry_Statistics/CMSA_Compendium.pdf
Commercial: 5% -to- 15%
Residential: 15% -to- 30%
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Commercial Mortgage Origination Index – (From 2002 to 2008)
http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Research/CommercialOriginations/3Q08CMFOriginationsSurvey.pdf
Div
&
Yield:
2.08 (12.90%) -67%
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Net Change Commercial Mortgage Debt (1980-2008)
http://www.mbaa.org/files/Research/DataBooks/3Q08QuarterlyDataBook.pdf
Falling values/deleveraging: Equity Shortfall $425 billion next 5years.
Source: Jim Valente, Kennedy Associates, Institutional Real Estate Letter, April 2009.
Source: Jim Valente, Kennedy Associates, Institutional Real Estate Letter, April 2009.
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Housing Market – Tight Credit Standards
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Housing Market – FHA Originations
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Appendix
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• Loss of Civil Liberties - Personal/Individual/Property Rights• Lack of Governmental Transparency and Accountability• Dismantling of Social Welfare State and Safety Net• Direct Input into Policy Development by Special Interests• Redistribution and Concentration of Wealth (Privatization)• Lack of Access to Democratic Institutions and Legal System• Freedom of Speech and Press Limitations (Censorship)• Unification of Church and State, attack on science
“Institutional deconstruction is the dismantling of pluralisticand democratic institutions by powerful interests withinsociety. The goal is to “deconstruct” these institutions, andreplace them with new authoritarian institutions thatenforce and redistribute private property rights toprivileged interests, at any cost.”
Jacques Derrida, Martin Heidegger, Friedreich Nietzsche, Et.Al.
Institutional Deconstruction
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• Greenspan developed a New Business Cycle that privilegesfinancial-capital markets over labor markets.
• Major shift to preemptive monetary policy strikes towardinflation targeting, and away from full employment-real wagegrowth targeting (Paul Volcker -> Ben Bernanke).
• Foundation of monetary policy was deregulation, a financialboom in the stock and real estate markets and free trade, drivingup consumer consumption and debt levels.
• Results: Cycle marked by deindustrialization, growing tradedeficits, financial-asset market price bubbles, dollarovervaluation, L-T decline real wage growth, growing householddebt levels, under investment by business in capital stock
• Risks: Fragile economy-recovery, high debt levels, underperforming labor markets, exposure to financial marketcorrections, moral hazard – Fed intervention to rescue markets
Thomas Palley, Challenge, Nov.-Dec. 2005.
Greenspan Critique: Labor vs. Capital
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REIT Equity Stock Index Performance – Redwood Trust
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=RWT&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
Div
&
Yield:
2.08 (12.90%)
P/E (ttm): N/A EPS (ttm): -43.85 Div & Yield: 3.00 (22.20%)Price $14.83
-80%
AVG WACC=.6(8%) + .4(22%)=14%~17%
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REIT Equity Stock Index Performance – AMB
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AMB&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
Div
&
Yield:
2.08 (12.90%)
P/E (ttm): N/A EPS (ttm): -0.67 Div & Yield: 1.12% (8.90%)Price $14.10
-77%
AVG WACC=.6(8%) + .4(9%)=8%~11%
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REIT Equity Stock Index Performance – BRE
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BRE&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
Div
&
Yield:
2.08 (12.90%)
P/E (ttm): 9.15 EPS (ttm): 2.50 Div & Yield: 2.25 (10.70%)Price $22.83
-58%
AVG WACC=.6(6%) + .4(11%)=8%~11%
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REIT Equity Stock Index Performance – Digital Realty Trust
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DLR&t=5y
Div
&
Yield:
2.08 (12.90%)
P/E (ttm): 78.96 EPS (ttm): 0.41 Div & Yield: 1.32 (4.20%)Price $32.61
-36%
AVG WACC=.6(6%) + .4(4%)=5%~8%
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Increasing Debt of ConsumersSource: Economy.com
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Non-Farm Payroll Employment
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. http://www.bls.gov
1.3 mil.Avg
YOY Feb 2009 Total = -4,200,000-2.0 mil.Avg
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Non-Farm Payroll Employment
300,000
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. http://www.bls.gov
-681,000 in Dec 2008
Feb 09’ Total = -651,000YOY Feb 2009 Total = -4,200,000
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Source: Department of Labor Statistics.
San Francisco PMSA Non-Farm Employment Growth (YOY)
Jan’09 -2.1%
Jan’09 -20,700
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Source: Department of Labor Statistics.
San Jose PMSA Non-Farm Employment Growth (YOY)
Jan’09 -2.1%
Jan’09 -19,100
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Source: Department of Labor Statistics.
Oakland PMSA Non-Farm Employment Growth (YOY)
Jan’09 -3.7%
Jan’09 -37,800
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http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_crude.html
Inflation Expectations
Up +70%
Oil Prices up from $15 in 1998 to $102 in 2008, up 580%
Source: Energy Information Administration (http://eia.doe.gov/)
Above inflation-adjusted high of $90 per
barrel in 1980
$37.50
$142.50
-73.7%
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Inflation Expectations - VolatilityU.S. Consumer Price Index – All Items (U.S. City Average)
Increasing Volatility
8% Ann. Avg.3% Ann. Avg.
5.0% Ann. Avg.
http://www.bls.gov/home.htmSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Extremely Excessive Volatility
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Euro/Yen Exchange Rates 2008-2009
Source: New York Federal Reserve Bank. http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/foreignex.html
-16.0%
-14.8%
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Balance of Trade
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BOPBCA/13
Trade balance roughly zero from 1960 through 1981, fell to -173 billion as of October 2007.
Increasing probability of a international financial crisis.
Faster rates of capital accumulation due to foreign direct investment in manufacturing
production, services, and technology sectors.
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Real Estate Relative to Bond Prices …
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Commercial Vacancy Rates (From 1988 to 2010)
http://www.cmsaglobal.org/uploadedFiles/CMSA_Site_Home/Industry_Resources/Research/Industry_Statistics/CMSA_Compendium.pdf
Structural Vacancy Rate
Structural Vacancy Rate
Up 300-to-500 bsp increase
over 16 months
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Mortgage Debt and NCREIF Cap Rates
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
1978
Q119
80Q1
1982
Q119
84Q1
1986
Q119
88Q1
1990
Q119
92Q1
1994
Q119
96Q1
1998
Q120
00Q1
2002
Q120
04Q1
2006
Q120
08Q1
Source: Based on data from NCREIF, Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federal Reserve
Mor
tgag
e D
ebt a
s a
% o
f GD
P
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%
9.0%
9.5%
10.0%
NC
RE
IF C
ap R
ate
Comm Mtg as % of GDP NCREIF Cap Rate (CV)
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New Housing Starts
Source. United States Census Bureau. http://www.census.gov/briefrm/esbr/www/esbr020.html
Jan-Feb 09’ 583,000 Up
22%
Apr 06’- Feb 09’ Down 83%
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Housing Market – Price Declines
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CSHomePrice_Release_022445.pdf
From Peak 2Q06 down 26.7%
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Housing Market - Excess Inventory
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CMBS Delinquency Rates by Type (From 2003 to 2008)
http://www.cmsaglobal.org/uploadedFiles/CMSA_Site_Home/Industry_Resources/Research/Industry_Statistics/CMSA_Compendium.pdf
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Lawrence Souza (lsouza@Johnson/SouzaGroup.com) brings to Johnson Souza Group,Inc. (Direct: (415-713-0213) over 20 years of experience in real estate economic andfinancial research. As Managing Director-Index Services, Charles Schwab InvestmentManagement (CSIM); Chief Real Estate Economist and Director of Index Services,Global Real Analytics (GRA); Director of Research for BRE Properties, Inc. (REIT) inSan Francisco and holding Senior Market/Research Analyst positions at MetricInstitutional Realty Advisors and Mellon-McMahan/MacFarlane Realty Advisors, andmarket research positions at Norris, Beggs and Simpson and Grubb & Ellis commercialbrokerage. Mr. Souza combines traditional fundamental real estate economic and marketresearch with fundamental and technical financial and capital market research. Thiscombined approach allows for the tracking and forecasting of economic, real estate andfinancial cycles and efficient portfolio construction, optimization and risk management.
Mr. Souza is also a licensed California Real Estate Broker (Realtor), specializing inurban-infill residential, commercial property transactions, and 1031 Exchanges in theSan Francisco Bay Area and Western Region.
Mr. Souza has undergraduate degrees in Economics (BA) and Business Administration(BS) with concentrations in Accounting, Finance, Banking and Real Estate; and holdsmaster’s degrees in Applied Economics (MA), Finance/Investments (MS), PublicAdministration (MPA), and Information Systems (MSIS). Mr. Souza has been teachingModern Real Estate Principles and Finance since 1996 with an emphasis on real estatein a modern portfolio and capital markets context; and the institutionalization,securitization, internationalization and technologization of real estate markets andproducts.
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