Part of "Strategies for Adapting to Climate Change in Rural Sub-Saharan Africa: Targeting the Most Vulnerable", funded by BMZPresented by P. Zhou, T. Simbini and G, RamokgotlwaneEECG

EECG PROFILEMOSTLY WORKING IN ENERGY AND ENVIORNMENT INCLDUING CLIMATE CHANGE. SINCE 1993.

FOR CLIMATE CHANGE WORK IN ALL ASPECTS- EMISSIONS, IMPACTS AND MITIGATION

WE SUPPORT NATIONAL CC ACTIVITIES- E.G. FIRST NATIONAL COMMUNICATION. ON IMPACTS DID THE WATER SECTOR

MANAGED AND PARTICIPATED IN REGION CC PROJECTS- E.G. ESKOM CC RESEARCH PROGRAMME, CARBON PROJECT DEVELOPMENT AND MITIGATION MLODELLING IN OTHER AFRICAN COUNTRIES

NOW HELPING MOZAMBIQUE DEVLOP THEIR CC MAINSTREAMING AND CAPACITY BUILDING PROGRAMME

WE ARE SMALL BUT SURVIVE ON PARTNERSHIPS WITH OTHER REGIONAL CENTRES AND ASSOCIATE CONSULTANTS

CORE PRODUCERS OF THE REPORT TICH SIMBINI AND GORATA RAMOKGOTLWANE AND TS WILL MAKE THE PRESENTATION

ACKNWOLEDGE UPFRONT THE INPUTS MADE BY IFPRI-WHO MADE ALL THE MODELLING RESULTS

Project BackgroundObjectivesReview of Current Situation and trends Review of Land Use, Potential, and LimitationsInstitutional Policy, Programs and StrategiesScenarios for the FutureAgricultural OutcomesConclusions

This study is part of a Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) project commissioned by the Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

To assess the regions vulnerability of Agriculture to climate change with special emphasis being placed on the poor.

Four agro-ecological zonesKalahari desert sandveld (in center of country, two thirds of country)Eastern part of country loamy clay soilsNorth Eastern wet sand veld Remainder transition sandveld

DecadeTotal Growth RateRural Growth RateUrban Growth Rate1960-19692.702.3011.901970-19793.502.5011.101980-19893.20-0.2012.601990-19992.400.204.902000-20081.20-0.602.60Source: IFPRI calculations, based on World Development Indicators (World Bank)

Most of population in eastern and south eastern parts of country.Availability of fertile soils and better water availability

Settlement TypeCities/TownsUrban VillagesRural AreasNationalTotal households109 556121 321163 395394 272% of households27.8%30.8%41.4%100%Income (per month)Mean3 9612 4451 3792 425Lower 10%504347240358Median1 9491 3347431 344Upper 10%9 6355 5203 1057 030

Variable1984/851993/942002/031. Poverty rate (as % of indiv. population)5946.730.32. Income distribution: national Gini coefficient disposable income0.5560.5370.5733. Livestock ownership% of households without cattle50.254.662.5% of households without goats46.963.0% of households without sheep92.3% of households without chicken59.1

80% of Botswana has significant tree and shrub cover classed as forests under FAOOnly 20% (mostly in the north east tall and dense enough to be called forest in Southern African sense

Location of protected areas i.e. parks reserves and fragile ecosystems allocated tourism and in some parts also suitable for agriculture activities

means

Chart1

9.99

-2.61.6

1.89.7

2.82.8

-119.7

-3.60.5

6.86.1

0.45.6

Agriculture

Total GDP

Year

GDP

Comparison of Agriculture GDP ratevs Overal GDP rate

Sheet1

Years2000/012001/022002/032003/042004/052005/062006/07Annual 2000-07*

Drought years2001/022002/032004/052005/072006/07

Agriculture9.9-2.61.82.8-11-3.66.80.4

Total GDP91.69.72.89.70.56.15.6

Sheet2

Sheet3

Chart1

9.99

-2.61.6

1.89.7

2.82.8

-119.7

-3.60.5

6.86.1

0.45.6

Agriculture

Total GDP

Year

GDP

Comparison of Agriculture GDP vs Overal GDP

Chart2

13000250002000388518460

310003500001012311600

50008000100015385100

30346324370149805880

1969021455209711406792200

386624587590048774732648

1381317170286012870535440

Sorghum Cmnl

Maize Cmnl

Millet Cmnl

Sorghum

Maize

Millet

Year

Hectrage

Planted Area by Communal and Commercial Farmer for Sorghum, Maize and Millet

Sheet1

Years2000/012001/022002/032003/042004/052005/062006/07Annual 2000-07*

Drought years2001/022002/032004/052005/072006/07

Agriculture9.9-2.61.82.8-11-3.66.80.4

Total GDP91.69.72.89.70.56.15.6

Farming SystemCrop2000/01*2001/02*2002/03*2003/042004/052005/062006/07

Communal FarmersSorghum Cmnl13,00031,0005,00030,34619,69038,66213,813

Maize Cmnl25,00035,0008,00032,43721,45545,87517,170

Millet Cmnl2,000-1,000-2,0979,0042,860

Sub-Total40,00066,00014,00062,78343,24293,54133,843

%87%85%48%80%78%90%71%

Commercial FarmersSorghum3,88510,12315,38514,98011,4068,77412,870

Maize1,8461,16010588792732535

Millet----200648440

Sub-Total5,73111,28315,39515,56812,39810,15413,845

%13%15%52%20%22%10%29%

Total45,73177,28329,39578,35155,640103,69547,688

Sheet2

Sheet3

Chart3

122199236240611250

510470015578340

47020491152700

228183017908860

9687551680919795

1992202831750496353

2816242000912989

Sorghum - Cmnl

Maize - Cmnl

Millet - Cmnl

Sorghum

Maize

Millet

Year

Yield/Ha (tons/ha)

Yield Per Hectare for Maize, Sorghum, Millet production by Commercial and Communal Farmers

Chart1

9.99

-2.61.6

1.89.7

2.82.8

-119.7

-3.60.5

6.86.1

0.45.6

Agriculture

Total GDP

Year

GDP

Comparison of Agriculture GDP vs Overal GDP

Chart2

13000250002000388518460

310003500001012311600

50008000100015385100

30346324370149805880

1969021455209711406792200

386624587590048774732648

1381317170286012870535440

Sorghum Cmnl

Maize Cmnl

Millet Cmnl

Sorghum

Maize

Millet

Year

Hectrage

Planted Area by Communal and Commercial Farmer for Sorghum, Maize and Millet

Sheet1

Years2000/012001/022002/032003/042004/052005/062006/07Annual 2000-07*

Drought years2001/022002/032004/052005/072006/07

Agriculture9.9-2.61.82.8-11-3.66.80.4

Total GDP91.69.72.89.70.56.15.6

Farming SystemCrop2000/01*2001/02*2002/03*2003/042004/052005/062006/07

Communal FarmersSorghum Cmnl13,00031,0005,00030,34619,69038,66213,813

Maize Cmnl25,00035,0008,00032,43721,45545,87517,170

Millet Cmnl2,000-1,000-2,0979,0042,860

Sub-Total40,00066,00014,00062,78343,24293,54133,843

%87%85%48%80%78%90%71%

Commercial FarmersSorghum3,88510,12315,38514,98011,4068,77412,870

Maize1,8461,16010588792732535

Millet----200648440

Sub-Total5,73111,28315,39515,56812,39810,15413,845

%13%15%52%20%22%10%29%

Total45,73177,28329,39578,35155,640103,69547,688

Farming SystemYear2000/01*2001/02*2002/03*2003/042004/052005/062006/07

Communal FarmingSorghum - Cmnl1225104702289619928

Maize - Cmnl1994702041838722016

Millet - Cmnl236-91-5528324

Commercial FarmersSorghum2,4061,5571,5271,7901,6801,7502,000

Maize1,125834-886919496912

Millet----795353989

Sheet2

Sheet3

Botswana has average deficit of 99% for maize and 46% sorghum for the period under review (i.e. 2001-2007)FAO reports that daily average kilocalories per capita in Botswana decreased from 2260 in 1990/92 to 2180 in 2001/03

CropsYearRequirementsProduction(mt)DeficitMaize2001/02124 00017 412-106 5882002/03131 0001 633-129 3672003/04125 0006 220-118 7802004/05141 0002 586-138 4142005/06140 00010 467-129 5332006/07144 000751-143 249Sorghum/millet2001/0262 00031 625-30 3752002/0355 00054 362-6382003/0465 00035 134-29 8662004/0564 00021 164-42 8362005/0660 00025 604-34 3962006/0757 00026 193-30 807

Mainstay of the rural population, which makes up about 42.6% of Botswanas population85% of national herd grazed in communal lands and is hampered by a shortage of waterCattle production is the only source of agricultural exports in BotswanaAverage beef production has been declining and targets that were set in NDP9 were not met Being hampered by the lack of quality breeding stock, lack of infrastructure in production areas, poor livestock husbandry and diseases

MoA attribute this fall to outbreaks of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) and that 10% of carcasses from BMC are affected with Bovine measles

Item2001200220032004200520062007Chilled meat8 1184,7815,3764,6924,1982,9861,119Frozen Meat8 1105,0103,8255,4333,3753,1405,336Total Exports16 2289,791920110,1257,5736,1266,455Export Quota18 91618,91618,91618,91618,91618,91618,916Quota fulfillment86%52%49%54%40%32%34%

Small stock production but plays and important socio-economic role in the lives of the rural poor as a source of food and income (mostly to female headed households)national small stock population showing a decreasing trend mostly due to poor management and disease and parasite infestation.high mortality rate for small stock during wet years because of high incidence of disease compared to dry years. E.g heartwater disease case in the eastern part of the country. heartwater disease in also being observed in areas that used to be designated as heartwater disease free areas.Botswana has for the first time in history had an outbreak of the Rift-Valley Fever in the Kanye and Ramotswa area.

Institutional Policy, Programs and StrategiesInstitutional Policy, Programs and Strategies that were reviewed includeVision 2016NDP 9Integrated Support Programme for Arable Agriculture Development (ISPAAD) Livestock Management and Infrastructure Development Programme Phase1 (LIMID)National Master Plan for Arable Agriculture and Dairy Development (NAMPAADD)Gender PolicyBotswanas Agricultural Policy: Critical Sectoral Issues and Future Strategy for DevelopmentDiseases of Animal Act 1977Revised National Food StrategyPrograms in Support of Public Goods (Rural Infrastructure, Agricultural Research)

Scenarios for the Future Changes in mean annual precipitation for SSA and Botswana between 2000 and 2050Changes in normal annual maximum temperature for Botswana between 2000 and 2050Yield change map under climate change: rainfed maize in BotswanaYield change map under climate change: rainfed sorghum in Botswana

CNRM-CM3 GCMCSIRO-MK3 GCMECHAM5 GCMMIROC3.2 While consequences of CC are becoming increasingly well known, greater uncertainty remains about how climate change effects will play out in specific locationsGCMs illustrate the range of potential climate outcomes

CNRM-CM3 GCMCSIRO-MK3 GCMECHAM5 GCMMIROC3.2

CNRM-CM3 GCMCSIRO-MK3 GCMECHAM5 GCMMIROC3.2

CNRM-CM3 GCMCSIRO-MK3 GCMECHAM5 GCMMIROC3.2

CNRM-CM3 GCMCSIRO-MK3 GCMECHAM5 GCMMIROC3.2

MAIZE CHANGESDISTRICTSCOMMENTSOPTIMISTICGreater than 25%NE+PandamatengaAll GCMs5 to 25%kweneng, Kgaltleng3 of 4 GCMsmixedKgalagadiAll GCMs- dont agreePESSIMISTIC-5 to -25%Kweneng and SEall GCMSSORGHUM CHANGESDISTRICTSCOMMENTSOPTIMISTICupto 25%Central, Kweneng, Kgatleng,Southern, SE2 of 4 GCMs-5 to -25%Ghanzi, Ngamiland, half of Centralall GCMSmixedKgalagadi2 of 4 GCMsPESSIMISTICgeneral loss of yields Across the country

Agricultural Outcomes Impact of changes in GDP and population on maize in Botswana

Agricultural OutcomesImpact of changes in GDP and population on sorghum in Botswana

ConclusionsBotswanas semi-arid climate severely already limits the countrys food production capacity before impacts of climate change5% is suitable for cultivation and less than 1% is being cultivated mostly in the eastern parts of the countryAgriculture contribution to GDP reduced from 40% at independence in 1966 to just over 1% at presentAgriculture still remains the mainstay of the rural economy, which is made up of 41.4% of the countrys households and offers employment to 30% of the countrys employable population

Conclusionscommunal farmers cultivate 80% total planted area in the country but produce 38% of the countrys total harvestBeef production is the only agriculture export earner in Botswana and is dominated by communal farmers who possess about 85% of the national herdThere is currently no policy in Botswana, which caters for the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change The current policy framework has taken into consideration the drought prone climate of Botswana

ConclusionsChange in precipitation Most optimistic scenario:- change between -50 to -200mm in different parts of the countryMost probable scenario:- changes of between -50 to 50mm in most of the countryTemperature projected to rise by between 1 to 3.5oC across the countryMaize and sorghum yields, projected to increase as the farming methods improve and better hybrid seeds are produced thus resulting in increased production for both crops.However the increased local production will not be sufficient to satisfy the local demand Communal farmers are more vulnerable to the effects of climate change than commercial farmers

RECOMMENDATIONSHERE ONLY VULNERABILITY-NO ADAPTATION MEASURESEVEN ON VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT- NOT A ONCE OFF EXERCISE-NEED CONTINUED ASSESSMENTS TO GAIN BETTERUNDERSTANDING OF THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS (E.G. ON LIVELIHOODS) AND HOW TO PREPARE FOR THEM. IDENTIFY MODELS THAT BEST SUITE BOTSWANAIDENTIFY IMPORTANT INPUTS INTO PLANNING PROCESSESON ADAPTATION OPTIONSMAP ADAPTATION STRATEGIES AND COSTING THE STRATEGIES

RECOMMENDATIONS CONTDBUILD NECESSARY CAPACITY FOR MODELLINGLEARN FROM GOOD PRACTICES AND BAD PRACTICES- THINKING COST BENEFITUPSCALING OF HOPEFUL PILOT STRATEGIESREVISION OF POLICIES/PLANS/STRAGEIES/PROGRAMMES TO INCORPORATE CC. MAINSTREAMING CC INTO DEVELOPMENTFORUM OF INFORMATION SHARINGM&E FRAMEWORK

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