assessing the vulnerability of tree species in the sub-boreal ......assessing the vulnerability of...
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Assessing the Vulnerability of Tree Species in the Sub-Boreal Spruce Zone to Climate Change
Craig Nitschke, Ph.D., F.I.T.BV Research Centre,
Dept. Forest Resources Mgt, University of British ColumbiaSchool of Forest and Ecosystem Science, University of Melbourne
By:Craig Nitschke, Rasmus
Astrup, Aaron Trowbridge
-
OutlineIntroduction
Research Area & Objectives
Methods
Results
Summary
-
A History of Climatic ChangeClimate is changing, but it always has!
In the last 14,000 years we have seen the end of a:
Great Ice Age (10,000 – 14,000 yrs);Medieval Warm Period (850 – 1250); Little Ice Age (1350 - 1850)
In the last century we have warmed by 0.6 °C
Now we are in a period of rapid climate change
Global Warming
-
Projected Climate Change
For WorldGCMs predict a 1.4 to 5.8 ºC increase by 2085
For CanadaGCMs predict a 4.9 to 6.8 ºC increase by 2085
Northern Canada & AlaskaUp to a 10 ºC increase in temperature predicted in some locations
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Impacts of Climate ChangeIncreased frequency and severity of natural disturbancesIncreased Variability in Weather AnomaliesChanges in phenological responsesShifts in Species Distributions
Change in ecosystems compositions
Extinction and Extirpation
-
Research Area & Objectives
-
Year 1 of Multi-Year FSP Project
Assessing the vulnerability to climate change from the tree- to the stand- to the landscape-level
Year 1: regeneration and site type
Link to ongoing FSP project investigating the influence of site type on competition
Year 2 : Species competition & stand succession under climate change
-
Study Area
Bulkley Valley
Sub-Boreal Spruce Zone
SBSdkSBSmc2
Elevation500 -1400 m
SBSdk: 500-1100 mSBSmc2: 500-1350 m
Smithers
A.P. Topley
Landing
-
Research Questions
Are tree species in the Sub-Boreal Spruce zone vulnerable to predicted climate change in their regeneration niche?
What climate thresholds are trigger points for species?
-
Methods
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Vulnerability Approach
Vulnerability assessments of ecosystems to climate change are recommended by the IPCC
Assessed Vulnerability of Species in their Regeneration Niche
Species and ecosystems are most sensitive in the regeneration phase to changes in climateMature individuals and communities can withstand large changes in climate
Biological InertiaDisturbances that remove mature communities/ individuals will require regeneration for ecosystem to sustain itself
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Why Species and Ecosystem Vulnerability?
Ecosystems are the basic units of nature on Earth
Determined by the interaction between biotic and abiotic components
Maintenance of ecosystems health and function are at the foundation of sustainable forest management
If ecosystems are vulnerable:Ecological services they provide are threatened sustainable management is threatened
AdaptationHow do you undertake adaptation if you do not understand what needs to be adapted?
-
Ecological Resilience
Adapted from Gunderson and Holling (2001)
α Κ
Γ Ω
Connectedness
Resilience
Exit
Reorganisation
Exploitation
Conservation
Release
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Modelling Species and Ecosystem Response
TACA Tree and Climate Assessment
Nitschke and Innes. 2008. A tree and climate assessment tool for modelling ecosystem response to climate change. Ecological Modelling 210 (3): 263-277.
Fundamental-regeneration niche modelMechanistic model Species response to climate-driven biophysical mechanisms that hinder/ prevent regeneration
Assess the regeneration potential of species under different climate scenarios and edaphic conditions (i.e. presence/ absence)
CurrentClimate Change Projections
-
Model Parameterisation
Empirical-based thresholdsPeer-Reviewed Literature
Field surveys Soil DepthSoil Texture Slope PositionSMR-SNR
-
Climate Transects1400 m
500 m
ESSF
SBS
North South
Environmental Lapse Rates
• Temperature (0.58 C/ 100m)
• Precipitation (5.3 %/ 100m)
Northern aspects are 1-3 C warmer than Southern aspects
100 m Plot Interval
-
Microclimate Treatments
T1: Open Stand ConditionsNorth AspectSouth Aspect
T2: Understorey ConditionsNorth AspectSouth Aspect
A B CA B C
T1 T2
Edaphic
ConditionsA: Xeric
B: Mesic
C: Subhygric
D: hygric
+
-
Climate/ Weather Data
2 Weather Stations
Generated Multiple climate scenarios for each station
Average climateBelow Average Climate (x 2)Above Average Climate (x 2)
Represent observed variability in historical climate records
Daily Resolution
Multiple stations increase variability
Smithers A.P. Topley
Landing
-
Climate Change Predictions
Pacific Climate Impacts ConsortiumCGCM2
SRES A2X Scenario
CGCM2SRES B2X Scenario
Hadley CM3SRES A2X Scenario
Hadley CM3SRES A1F1 Scenario
Direct Adjustment ApproachMonthly resolution
-
Climate Change Scenarios: Ensemble
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Minimum Temperature Maximum Temperature Precipitation
Climate Variable
Cha
nge
in C
limat
e (
o C &
% )
20252055
2085
-
Testing for Differences
Student’s t-test
Test for difference in regeneration potential between climate scenarios
Test for difference in soil moisture between climate scenarios
Standard error and confidence intervals
-
Results
-
Regeneration Potential Weighted by Proportion of Site Types
1: NilRegeneration Probability = 0
2: Rare Regeneration Probability = < 0.10
3: InfrequentRegeneration Probability = 0.10 – 0.25
4: FrequentRegeneration Probability = 0.25 - 0.50
5: Very FrequentRegeneration Probability = > 0.50
-
Change in Regeneration Potential non-spatial!
By 2025:South Aspect:
3 species respond significantly (Sx, Sb, Se)North Aspect:
2 species (Fd, Lw)
By 2055South Aspect:
6 species respond significantly (Bl, Pa, Pl, Sx, Sb, Se)North Aspect:
3 species (Sx, Sb, Se)
By 2085South Aspect:
10 species respond significantly (Ac, At, Bl, Ep, Hw, Pa, Pl, Sx, Sb, Se)North Aspect:
5 species (Bl, Pl, Sx, Sb, Se)
-
Regeneration Potential South Aspect
1
2
3
4
5
Blac
k C
otto
nwoo
d
Trem
blin
g As
pen
Amab
ilis F
ir
Gra
nd F
ir
Suba
lpin
e Fi
r
Wes
tern
Red
ceda
r
Mou
ntai
n Al
der
Pape
r Birc
h
Dou
glas
-fir
Wes
tern
Lar
ch
Whi
teba
rk P
ine
Lodg
epol
e Pi
ne
Wes
tern
Whi
te P
ine
Pond
eros
a Pi
ne
Blac
k Sp
ruce
Enge
lman
n Sp
ruce
Hyb
rid W
hite
Spr
uce
Wes
tern
Hem
lock
Mou
ntai
n H
emlo
ck
Species
Reg
ener
atio
n Po
tent
ial
Current202520552085
-
Regeneration Potential North Aspect
1
2
3
4
5
Blac
k C
otto
nwoo
d
Trem
blin
g As
pen
Amab
ilis F
ir
Gra
nd F
ir
Suba
lpin
e Fi
r
Wes
tern
Red
ceda
r
Mou
ntai
n Al
der
Pape
r Birc
h
Dou
glas
-fir
Wes
tern
Lar
ch
Whi
teba
rk P
ine
Lodg
epol
e Pi
ne
Wes
tern
Whi
te P
ine
Pond
eros
a Pi
ne
Blac
k Sp
ruce
Enge
lman
n Sp
ruce
Hyb
rid W
hite
Spr
uce
Wes
tern
Hem
lock
Mou
ntai
n H
emlo
ck
Species
Reg
ener
atio
n Po
tent
ial
Current202520552085
-
Change in Regeneration Potential: Understorey
non-spatial!
By 2025:South Aspect:
1 species respond significantly (Pm)North Aspect:
7 species (Bg, Cw, Dm, Fd, Lw, Pm, Py)
By 2055South Aspect:
6 species respond significantly (Bl, Pa, Pl, Sx, Sb, Se)North Aspect:
2 species (Bg, Dm)
By 2085South Aspect:
11 species respond significantly (At, Ba, Bl, Ep, Hm, Hw, Pa, Pl, Sx, Sb, Se)North Aspect:
3 species (Ba, Dm, Sb)
-
Regeneration Potential Understorey: South Aspect
1
2
3
4
5
Blac
k C
otto
nwoo
d
Trem
blin
g As
pen
Amab
ilis F
ir
Gra
nd F
ir
Suba
lpin
e Fi
r
Wes
tern
Red
ceda
r
Mou
ntai
n Al
der
Pape
r Birc
h
Dou
glas
-fir
Wes
tern
Lar
ch
Whi
teba
rk P
ine
Lodg
epol
e Pi
ne
Wes
tern
Whi
te P
ine
Pond
eros
a Pi
ne
Blac
k Sp
ruce
Enge
lman
n Sp
ruce
Hyb
rid W
hite
Spr
uce
Wes
tern
Hem
lock
Mou
ntai
n H
emlo
ck
Species
Reg
ener
atio
n Po
tent
ial
Current202520552085
-
Regeneration Potential Understorey: North Aspect
1
2
3
4
5
Blac
k C
otto
nwoo
d
Trem
blin
g As
pen
Amab
ilis F
ir
Gra
nd F
ir
Suba
lpin
e Fi
r
Wes
tern
Red
ceda
r
Mou
ntai
n Al
der
Pape
r Birc
h
Dou
glas
-fir
Wes
tern
Lar
ch
Whi
teba
rk P
ine
Lodg
epol
e Pi
ne
Wes
tern
Whi
te P
ine
Pond
eros
a Pi
ne
Blac
k Sp
ruce
Enge
lman
n Sp
ruce
Hyb
rid W
hite
Spr
uce
Wes
tern
Hem
lock
Mou
ntai
n H
emlo
ck
Species
Reg
ener
atio
n Po
tent
ial
Current202520552085
-
Vulnerability Classes: Based on IUCN Categories
0 = NilNo change or Increase in range
1 = Low< 20 % contraction in range
2 = Medium< 40 % contraction in range
3 = High< 50 % contraction in range
4 = Very High 80 % contraction in range
-
Species Vulnerability South Aspect
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Blac
k C
otto
nwoo
d
Trem
blin
g As
pen
Amab
ilis F
ir
Gra
nd F
ir
Suba
lpin
e Fi
r
Wes
tern
Red
ceda
r
Mou
ntai
n Al
der
Pape
r Birc
h
Dou
glas
-fir
Wes
tern
Lar
ch
Whi
teba
rk P
ine
Lodg
epol
e Pi
ne
Wes
tern
Whi
te P
ine
Pond
eros
a Pi
ne
Blac
k Sp
ruce
Enge
lman
n Sp
ruce
Hyb
rid W
hite
Spr
uce
Wes
tern
Hem
lock
Mou
ntai
n H
emlo
ck
Species
Vuln
erab
ility
Cla
ss
202520552085
-
Species Vulnerability North Aspect
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Blac
k C
otto
nwoo
d
Trem
blin
g As
pen
Amab
ilis F
ir
Gra
nd F
ir
Suba
lpin
e Fi
r
Wes
tern
Red
ceda
r
Mou
ntai
n Al
der
Pape
r Birc
h
Dou
glas
-fir
Wes
tern
Lar
ch
Whi
teba
rk P
ine
Lodg
epol
e Pi
ne
Wes
tern
Whi
te P
ine
Pond
eros
a Pi
ne
Blac
k Sp
ruce
Enge
lman
n Sp
ruce
Hyb
rid W
hite
Spr
uce
Wes
tern
Hem
lock
Mou
ntai
n H
emlo
ck
Species
Vuln
erab
ility
Cla
ss
202520552085
-
Understorey Species Vulnerability South Aspect
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Blac
k C
otto
nwoo
d
Trem
blin
g As
pen
Amab
ilis F
ir
Gra
nd F
ir
Suba
lpin
e Fi
r
Wes
tern
Red
ceda
r
Mou
ntai
n Al
der
Pape
r Birc
h
Dou
glas
-fir
Wes
tern
Lar
ch
Whi
teba
rk P
ine
Lodg
epol
e Pi
ne
Wes
tern
Whi
te P
ine
Pond
eros
a Pi
ne
Blac
k Sp
ruce
Enge
lman
n Sp
ruce
Hyb
rid W
hite
Spr
uce
Wes
tern
Hem
lock
Mou
ntai
n H
emlo
ck
Species
Vuln
erab
ility
Cla
ss
202520552085
-
Understorey Species Vulnerability North Aspect
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Blac
k C
otto
nwoo
d
Trem
blin
g As
pen
Amab
ilis F
ir
Gra
nd F
ir
Suba
lpin
e Fi
r
Wes
tern
Red
ceda
r
Mou
ntai
n Al
der
Pape
r Birc
h
Dou
glas
-fir
Wes
tern
Lar
ch
Whi
teba
rk P
ine
Lodg
epol
e Pi
ne
Wes
tern
Whi
te P
ine
Pond
eros
a Pi
ne
Blac
k Sp
ruce
Enge
lman
n Sp
ruce
Hyb
rid W
hite
Spr
uce
Wes
tern
Hem
lock
Mou
ntai
n H
emlo
ck
Species
Vuln
erab
ility
Cla
ss
202520552085
-
Summary of Vulnerability: Open Sites
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2025 2055 2085
Climate Period
Num
ber o
f Spe
cies Nil
LowMediumHighVery HighExtreme
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2025 2055 2085
Climate Period
Num
ber o
f Spe
cies Nil
LowMediumHighVery HighExtreme
South Aspect
North Aspect
-
Summary of Vulnerability: Understorey
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2025 2055 2085
Climate Period
Num
ber o
f Spe
cies Nil
LowMediumHighVery HighExtreme
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2025 2055 2085
Climate Period
Num
ber o
f Spe
cies Nil
LowMediumHighVery HighExtreme
South Aspect
North Aspect
-
Species Diversity: South Aspects
50060070080090010001100120013001400
Curre
nt20
2520
5520
85
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Number of Species
ElevationClimate Period
-
Species Diversity: North Aspects
50060070080090010001100120013001400
Curre
nt20
2520
5520
85
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Number of Species
ElevationClimate Period
-
Driving Variables for Species Response
-
Soil Water Deficits Open Sites
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
Soil 1 Soil 2 Soil 3
Soil Type
Ann
ual A
ET/P
ET R
atio
Current202520552085
-
Driving Variables: Open Sites
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
Growing DegreeDays
MinimumTemperature
ChillingRequirement
Soil 1-Drought Soil 2-Drought Soil 3-Drought Frost Days Frost Damage
Driving Variable
Prob
abili
ty o
f Thr
esho
ld E
xcee
ded
Current202520552085
-
Driving Variables: Understorey Sites
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
Growing DegreeDays
MinimumTemperature
ChillingRequirement
Soil 1-Drought Soil 2-Drought Soil 3-Drought Frost Days Frost Damage
Driving Variable
Prob
abili
ty o
f Thr
esho
ld E
xcee
ded
Current202520552085
-
Vulnerability of dominant Sub-Boreal Spruce zone tree species
-
Black Cottonwood
Current 2025
-
Black Cottonwood
Current 2055
-
Black Cottonwood
Current 2085
-
Trembling Aspen
Current 2025
-
Trembling Aspen
Current 2055
-
Trembling Aspen
Current 2085
-
Lodgepole Pine
Current 2025
-
Lodgepole Pine
Current 2055
-
Lodgepole Pine
Current 2085
-
Hybrid White Spruce
Current 2025
-
Hybrid White Spruce
Current 2055
-
Hybrid White Spruce
Current 2085
-
Black Spruce
Current 2025
-
Black Spruce
Current 2055
-
Black Spruce
Current 2085
-
Subalpine Fir
Current 2025
-
Subalpine Fir
Current 2055
-
Subalpine Fir
Current 2085
-
Western Hemlock
Current 2025
-
Western Hemlock
Current 2055
-
Western Hemlock
Current 2085
-
The Bulkley Valley in the Future?
-
Douglas-Fir
Current 2025
-
Douglas-Fir
Current 2055
-
Douglas-Fir
Current 2085
-
Western Larch
Current 2025
-
Western Larch
Current 2055
-
Western Larch
Current 2085
-
Ponderosa Pine
Current 2025
-
Ponderosa Pine
Current 2055
-
Ponderosa Pine
Current 2085
-
Understorey?
-
Ponderosa Pine: Understorey
Current 2025
-
Ponderosa Pine: Understorey
Current 2055
-
Ponderosa Pine: Understorey
Current 2085
-
Western Red Cedar: Understorey
Current 2055
-
Western Red Cedar: Understorey
Current 2055
-
Western Red Cedar: Understorey
Current 2085
-
Western Hemlock: Understorey
Current 2025
-
Western Hemlock: Understorey
Current 2055
-
Western Hemlock: Understorey
Current 2085
-
Summary
-
General Pattern of ResponseContraction from lower elevations to higher elevations
Increase in drought conditionsIncrease in temperatureDecline in chilling weeks
Contraction from xeric-mesic sites with increased water deficits
Drought
Expansion to higher elevationsIncrease in temperatureIncrease in chilling weeksIncrease in frost free periodDecrease in growing season frosts
-
Are SBS Species Vulnerable?
All dominant SBS species exhibited a:significant contraction in regeneration potentialcontraction to higher elevation
Understorey conditions ameliorated responsesSignificant change occurs at higher degree of climate change
Aspect moderated responsesNorth aspects will benefit understorey species over shade-intolerant species
-
The Future BV Ecosystems?
Below 1000 m Dominants
Douglas-firWestern larchPonderosa pineTrembling aspen
(above 600 m) Understorey
Douglas-firPonderosa Pine
Western hemlockWestern red cedar
Grand firWestern white pine
Above 1100 m
All current SBS Species
But suitable, to some degree, for most lower elevation species
-
Are there Thresholds?
Increase in evapotranspiration offsets increase in precipitation
Increase in soil water deficits
Variable Response by Species by SiteOpen sites
South: 1.3 °C to 5.2 °C North: 2.8 °C to 5.2 °C
UnderstoreySouth: 2.8 °C to 5.2 °C North: 5.2 °C
Bl, Sx: no significant response
-
Take Home MessageThese are NOT predictions, it is an assessment of vulnerability
Conducted to provide and understanding of a hazardAllows for management under risk not uncertainty
Even if the assessment is 50 % wrong the dominant SBS species are still vulnerable!
The cost of doing nothing could far outweigh the costs of undertaking adaptation
Mitigation is more expensive than Adaptation
-
Acknowledgements
B.V. Centre
Forest Sciences Program
Ministry of ForestsDave CoatesAlex Woods
Prof. John InnesUBC
-
TACA (Nitschke and Innes 2008)
Daily Weather ParametersMaximum TemperatureMinimum Temperature
Precipitation
Growing Degree Day Requirements met?
Heat Sum Accumulated until Bud Burst
Drought Tolerance Exceeded?
Chilling Week Requirement Met?
YesNo
Minimum Temperature Threshold Exceeded?
Growing Season Frost Event Occurs?
NoYes NoYes
Absent Absent
Absent
YesNoNoYes
Absent Regeneration in Scenarioi
Regeneration Probability Modified
Multiple Annual Climate ScenariosMean Daily Scenario
Below Average Scenarios Above Average Scenarios
Presence/ Absence Probability:P/A = (∑Regeneration in Scenarioi
)/ Total # of Scenarios
Frost Free Period Exceeded?
Yes No
Absent
-
Understorey
50060070080090010001100120013001400
Curre
nt20
2520
5520
85
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Number of Species
ElevationClimate Period
50060070080090010001100120013001400
Curre
nt20
2520
5520
85
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Number of Species
ElevationClimate Period
-
Soil Water Deficits Understorey Sites
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
Soil 1 Soil 2 Soil 3
Soil Type
Ann
ual A
ET/P
ET R
atio
Current202520552085
-
North-Open
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
Soil 1 Soil 2 Soil 3
Soil Type
Ann
ual A
ET/P
ET R
atio
Current202520552085
-
Impacts of Recent Climate Change
1896
-
Impacts of Recent Climate Change
1996
Assessing the Vulnerability of Tree Species in the Sub-Boreal Spruce Zone to Climate ChangeOutlineA History of Climatic ChangeSlide Number 4Impacts of Climate ChangeResearch Area & ObjectivesYear 1 of Multi-Year FSP ProjectStudy AreaResearch QuestionsMethodsVulnerability ApproachWhy Species and Ecosystem Vulnerability?Ecological ResilienceModelling Species and Ecosystem ResponseModel ParameterisationClimate TransectsMicroclimate TreatmentsClimate/ Weather DataClimate Change PredictionsClimate Change Scenarios: EnsembleTesting for DifferencesResultsRegeneration Potential�Weighted by Proportion of Site TypesChange in Regeneration Potential�non-spatial!Regeneration Potential�South AspectRegeneration Potential�North AspectChange in Regeneration Potential:�Understorey� non-spatial!Regeneration Potential�Understorey: South AspectRegeneration Potential�Understorey: North AspectVulnerability Classes: �Based on IUCN CategoriesSpecies Vulnerability �South AspectSpecies Vulnerability �North AspectUnderstorey Species Vulnerability �South AspectUnderstorey Species Vulnerability �North AspectSummary of Vulnerability:�Open SitesSummary of Vulnerability:�UnderstoreySpecies Diversity: South AspectsSpecies Diversity: North AspectsDriving Variables for Species ResponseSoil Water Deficits �Open SitesDriving Variables: �Open SitesDriving Variables: �Understorey SitesVulnerability of dominant Sub-Boreal Spruce zone tree species �Black CottonwoodBlack CottonwoodBlack CottonwoodTrembling AspenTrembling AspenTrembling AspenLodgepole PineLodgepole PineLodgepole PineHybrid White SpruceHybrid White SpruceHybrid White SpruceBlack SpruceBlack SpruceBlack SpruceSubalpine FirSubalpine FirSubalpine FirWestern HemlockWestern HemlockWestern HemlockThe Bulkley Valley in the Future?Douglas-FirDouglas-FirDouglas-FirWestern LarchWestern LarchWestern LarchPonderosa PinePonderosa PinePonderosa PineUnderstorey?Ponderosa Pine:�UnderstoreyPonderosa Pine:�UnderstoreyPonderosa Pine:�UnderstoreyWestern Red Cedar:�UnderstoreyWestern Red Cedar:�UnderstoreyWestern Red Cedar:�UnderstoreyWestern Hemlock:�UnderstoreyWestern Hemlock:�UnderstoreyWestern Hemlock:�UnderstoreySummaryGeneral Pattern of ResponseAre SBS Species Vulnerable?The Future BV Ecosystems?Are there Thresholds?Take Home MessageAcknowledgementsTACA�(Nitschke and Innes 2008)Understorey Soil Water Deficits �Understorey SitesNorth-OpenImpacts of Recent Climate ChangeImpacts of Recent Climate Change