assessment of decentralized hybrid mini-grids in sub-saharan ......2nd africa-eu renewable energy...

2nd Africa-EU Renewable Energy Research & Innovation Symposium

Assessment of decentralized hybrid mini-grids in Sub-Saharan Africa: Market analysis, Least-cost modelling, and Job creation analysis

Ayodeji OkunlolaInstitute for Advanced Sustainability Studies Potsdam, Germany

THE KNOWN REALITY

Source: World Bank (2016)

Ayodeji Okunlola – RERIS 2018

GLOBAL ELECTRIFCATION RATES

MAJOR CHALLENGE CREATING A SYNERGY BETWEEN RE MINI-GRIDS & MARKET ACCESS IN SSA

????(Job Creation)

Market Access

Decentralized RE hybrid mini-grids

Addressing this question serves as the key research objective


JOBS!!

MINIMAL CONCENTRATION IN AFRICA: SSA STILL LAGGING

Source: IRENA (2017)

RENEWABLE ENERGY CENTERED JOBS CREATED IN 2016


JOBS!!

NO IMPROVEMENT IN JOBS CREATED BETWEEN 2015 AND 2016

ZOOMING CLOSER INTO FIGURES FOR AFRICA

2015 2016


METHODOLOGY:SYSTEM MODELLING and EMPLOYMENT IMPACT


ASSESSMENT MODEL

Energy systems modelling with urbsRE Employment Factors

Leontief Input–Output model

RE generation profiles, and annualElectricity demand profiles

Analysis of Gross jobs created due toindustry linkages

Analysis of Direct jobs created


Demand: Annual load profile

Variable RE source:Wind and Solar

generation profiles

Stock commodity (diesel generator)

Techno-economic Parameters:

• Efficiency • Investment costs • Lifetime • Interest rate• Fuel cost

OUTPUT • Costs • LCOE• Installed capacities mix • Generation mix • Storage needs

urbs techno economic

modelling tool

LEAST-COST MODELLING - urbs framework


urbs results

Direct Jobs

Net Jobs

JOB CREATION ASSESSMENT

Manufacturing, Installation, Operation & Maintenance𝑓(𝑘𝑊𝑖𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑑, 𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸, 𝐸mploymentFactor,

RegionalFactors EUvsZimbabwe ,%localmanufacturing)

Inter-sector backward linkages 𝑓(sectorcontributiontoGDP, Totalcost,

NumberofWorkerspersector, IOTableLeontiefInverse)


ENERGY DEMAND: DEMAND PROFILES ANALYSED

• Questionnaire

• Monte-carlo prediction (Time-of-use & Appliance demographics) 0

200

400

600

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Dem

and

(kW

)

Hour

0

1000

2000

3000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Dem

and

(kW

)

Hour

0

40

80

120

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Dem

and

(kW

)

Hour


11

Mini-grid scenarios considered

Base Scenario Diesel Only

SD Solar Diesel

SDB Solar + Diesel + Battery

SWD Solar + Wind + Diesel

SWDB Solar + Wind + Diesel + Battery

SWB Solar + Wind + Battery

SB Solar + Battery

WB Wind + Battery

WD Wind + Diesel

WDB Wind + Diesel + Battery


RESULTS

0.406 0.367 0.367 0.367 0.3670.656 0.657

2.271

0.405 0.405

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Diesel Only

SD SDB SWD SWDB SWB SB WB WD WDB

LC

OE

($/

kWh)

Ene

rgy

Ret

riev

ed (%

)

SCENARIOS

Diesel PV Wind Battery (retrieved) LCOE ($/kWh)

RESULTSTECHNO-ECONOMIC



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Diesel Only

SD SDB SWD SWDB SWB SB WB WD WDB

Dir

ect j

obs (

jobs

)

SCENARIOS

O&M Diesel Direct Jobs (Wind) O&MDirect Jobs (Wind) C&I Direct Jobs (Wind) ManufacturingDirect Jobs (Solar) O&M Direct Jobs (Solar) C&I

RESULTSDIRECT JOBS CREATED

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

Gro

ss jo

bs (j

obs)

SCENARIOS

Others Finacial Intermediation and Business ActivitiesHotels and Restaurants Education, Health and Other ServicesPublic Administration TransportRetail Trade Wholesale TradeMaintenance and Repair ConstructionElectricity, Gas and Water Other ManufacturingWood and Paper Textiles and Wearing ApparelFood & Beverages Agriculture


RESULTSBACK-WARD LINKAGE (GROSS) JOBS CREATED

15Ayodeji Okunlola – RERIS 2018

Wind Turbines

Cut–in & Rated wind speed

Power coefficient (Cp)

In-country manufacturing

DIY(Low Wind) 2 m/s & 9m/s 0.29 90%

Commercial 3m/s & 11m/s 0.33 20%

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: SWDB ALTERED COMPONENT- WIND TURBINE & DEMAND TYPE


0

200

400

600

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Dem

and

(kW

)

Hour

0

1000

2000

3000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Dem

and

(kW

)

Hour

0

40

80

120

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23D

eman

d (k

W)

Hour

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: SWDB ALTERED COMPONENT- WIND TURBINE & DEMAND TYPE


0.37 0.36 0.350.34 0.33 0.32 0.31

0.27

0.370.35

0.330.31

0.290.28 0.27

0.24

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

reference0%

20% 40% 60% 70% 75% 80% 90%

LC

OE

($/k

Wh)

Dir

ect j

obs

(sca

led

to p

eak

jobs

cre

ated

)

% CAPEX REDUCTION

Direct jobs DIY WIND Direct jobs Solar PVLCOE DIY WIND LCOE Solar PV

SENSITIVITY RESULTSCAPEX REDUCTION EFFECT on LCOE & Direct Job creation

• Solar provides cheaper LCOE but lower employment impact against DIY wind turbine• Effect of in-country manufacturing enhances DIY wind turbine job impact


0.302 0.325 0.334 0.348 0.368 0.386

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0% 5% 7% 10% Reference (15%) 20%

LC

OE

($/k

Wh)

Dir

ect J

obs

(sca

led

to p

eak

jobs

cre

ated

)

WACC

O&M Diesel Direct Jobs (Wind) O&MDirect Jobs (Wind) C&I Direct Jobs (Wind) ManufactureDirect Jobs (Solar) O&M Direct Jobs (Solar) C&I

SENSITIVITY RESULTS IMPACT OF WEIGHTED COST OF CAPITAL (WACC)


KEY CONCLUSIONS

De-risking economic factors such as discount rates can improve market accessfor decentralized RE mini-grids in SSA.

Reducing the cost & duration of wind-resource assessment reduces projectdevelopment costs for the wind technology which improves the market accessfor wind based hybrid systems.

Manufacturing & Agriculture industries still provide the highest productiveback-ward effects of mini-grid electrification.

Trade-off between lower LCOE and high job creation to drive growth ofdecentralized hybrid mini-grid in sub-Saharan Africa is essential.


Thank you.

[email protected]

cobenefits.info@IKI_COBENEFITS

assessment of decentralized hybrid mini-grids in sub-saharan ......2nd africa-eu renewable energy...

Documents