asset management and risk management dnv

8/22/2019 Asset Management and Risk Management Dnv

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TV Sddeutschland Bau und Betrieb GmbH

SDDEUTSCHLAND

Risk

Expenditure

Asset Management and Cost Saving

Maintenance Strategy based on

Risk-Informed Decision Making.Cost effective, reliable, and safe through TV gAte and ROI


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SDDEUTSCHLAND

Our World is changing

SOMEHOWRISK-INFORMED

Costs mustbe decreased

Increasing

responsibility

Worldwidecompetition

...........

Increased flexibilityneeded

Adaptedavailability needed

Knowledge Based

The Others are

doing itMore or LessPRESCRIPTIVE


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SDDEUTSCHLAND

Understanding of RISK

Risk = Probability of Failure (PoF) x Consequence of Failure (CoF)

Whats really new?

Integral Approach new, traceable assessment criteria risk assessment requires multi-disciplinary team all type of equipment considered under one hat

more distinctive regarding the identification ofdamage/deterioration mechanism to addressoptimized inspection techniques

remnant life related (for predictable mechanism) confidence related

PoF

CoFSHE-related

Costs-related

systematic introduction of CoF

distinction between SHE and Cost/Reliability CoF


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SDDEUTSCHLAND

Related Guidelines and Documents

ASME Risk Based InspectionVol. 1 General DocumentVol. 3 Fossil Fuel Fired Electric Power Generating Systems

EPRI Risk Based In-Service Inspection Evaluation Procedure WOG Application of Risk Based Methods for Piping In-Service Inspection API (American Petroleum Institute)

API 579 Fitness for ServiceAPI RP 580 Risk Based Inspection (qualitative)API RP 581 Risk Based Inspection (qualitative/quantitative)

Development of an European Guideline for Risk Based ISI/IST

and Maintenance:

Risk Based In-Service Inspection and Maintenance Procedures for European Industries


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SDDEUTSCHLAND

Rank

ing

Risk-MatrixRisk-Matrix

Engineering Judgement Semi-Quantitative Analysis Cause-Consequence A. System Simulation ....

Optimization

Safety and Economic relatedOptimization

ISI/IST Scope, Locations,Method, and Frequency

Monitoring Design modifications Spare Parts Operation ....

Scaffolding Insulation Inspections

Servicing ....

Realiza

tion

Planning andCoordination

Nr Vorgangsname

1 Projekt lei tung2 Marktverantwortung

3 Projektvorlauf

7 Kick-of f -Meet ing

8 TP1: Sichtung / Met

13 Information / Kontro

17 TP2: Vernetzung / E

23 TP3: Datenbasis


31 TP4: Mitarbeiter

35 TP5: Vermarktung


44 A bsch luss

45 Projektnachlauf

Kauer

Schmitt,Schrder,S

Projektteam

12/23

1011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

ft e 1 . H lft e 2 . H lft e 1 . H l ft e 2 . H l ft e 1 . H l ft e 2. Hlfte

Expe

rtPanel

Plant Specific Data

Generic DataData

Mining

Inspection Reports

Operating Window

Medium / Hazards

Damage/Deterioration

Mechanism

Reliability Data

....

Regulatory

Requirements


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SDDEUTSCHLAND

TV-Software based Procedure

Representation of the contributionto risk of the subcomponents ofthe component 01P002:

PoFi * CoFi


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SDDEUTSCHLAND

Inspection and Maintenance Planning

Risk-informed decision making using the risk matrix as central elementfor the long term strategy and day to day work planning

I: Run to FailureCorrective MaintenanceAim at zero expenditure

I

II

IIII

15 17

86 6

5

17 8

1

0

2

19

31

8231

2 2 05 2

18

11 6 215 4

Consequence of Failure (CoF)

ProbabilityofFailure(PoF

)

Economic Risk Ranking Diagram

II: ALARPAs Low as Reasonably Practicable viaPeriodical and Condition BasedMaintenance corresponding to riskPrinciple of expenditure minimization

III: UnacceptableUrgent measures like Change ofDesign, and/or Operation, Repair etc.

Principle of Risk Mitigation


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SDDEUTSCHLAND

Risk-Orientied Master Plan

Explicit measures are planned on the basis of

the risk identified the information regarding risk driving components,subcomponents and damage/deterioration mechanisms

the information regarding acting damage/deteriorationmechanisms, remnant life and the confidence level achieved,through which adapted and adequate measures can beselected

the overall confidence level

by considering resources, spare part situation, .....


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SDDEUTSCHLAND

Detailed Planning

No PoFReductionpossible

Notpossible

predictable f(t)

Calculate RemnantUseful Life

ConfidenceAssessment

Determine Interval, Method,Scope, and Place

f (Risk, Remnant Useful Life,Confidence)

Reductionof PoF


non-predictable

Monitoring possible?

ConditionMonitoring

InfluenceMonitoring


Determine Interval, Method,Scope, and Place

f (Risk, Confidence)

Reductionof Pof

Damage /DeteriorationMechanism


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SDDEUTSCHLAND

Example 1: Shut-down postponement of a refinery

Discussion with the authority regarding the generalpossibility to extend the prescribed interval and aboutthe method going to be used

Assessment of 464 Subcomponents

Risk Ranking Result: - Extreme High: 0 %

- Very High: 7 %- High: 20 %- Medium: 33 %

- Low: 40 %

Extension more or less no problem for most of the equipment

At the end there were 25 pieces of equipment for which it wassimply not possible to extend the interval in the first place


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SDDEUTSCHLAND

Example 1: Shut-down postponement

For those 25 we developed a detailed procedure how toreplace the internal by non-intrusive inspections(formalistic speaking the non-intrusive is replacing the

internal inspection)

The result was that this is possible for additionally 15 pieces

of equipmentResult:10 pieces of equipment (out of 464) remaining to be

internally inspected, repaired, or replaced at the originallyscheduled inspection time

Big Shut Down could be postponed(Savings > 8 Mio EUR)


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SDDEUTSCHLAND

Example 2: Economic Strategy (Combined Cycle)

heatrecoverysteamgenerator

gasturbine

fuelgas

air intake

exhaustgas

water steamcycle

gene-rator

electric power

steam

turbinegene-rator

Plant Control

Gas- line 1

Gas- line 2

Bypass 1

Bypass 2

Steam- generator1

Steam- generator2

Steam- line

Condensatsystem

Feedwater system

Coolingsystem

Circuit breaker

Transformers

SystemausflleFehler pro Historie

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Fa

ilures

Main Components

84,74

%8

4,5

2%

8

4,2

6%

80,1

3%

79,6

7%

78,7

5%

509,99

517,36

521,01

74,00%

76,00%

78,00%

80,00%

82,00%

84,00%

86,00%

Concept 1 Concept 2 Concept 3

485

490

495

500

505

510

515

520

525

averag

ePower[MW]

PmittelAF

NCF

The Decision for Concept 1 resultedin saving 40% of capital investment


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SDDEUTSCHLAND

Optimization targets in ROI

Identification (ranking) of critical systems and components

Identification of possible damage / deterioration mechanisms

Suitable inspection and maintenance methods

Determination of scope, location, and intervals

Economic balance

Documentation and traceability

Adjusted requirements for specifications, quality, certification,...(Risk Oriented Design, Risk Oriented Quality), Insurance Risk,

.....


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SDDEUTSCHLAND

Summary

; Cost OptimizationAppropriate balance between costs and benefits

; Cost ConcentrationPrioritizing on relevant and critical systems and components

; Cost TraceabilitySystematic decision making on thebasis of traceable measures

; Code ComplianceAPI, ASME, RIMAP, ...national standards

Risk

Expenditure