asset management dept. | monthly newsletter yemeni armed groups, ... head of asset management...

13
Monthly Newsletter Introduction With less than one month to complete the first half of our investment journey in 2015, global and regional capital markets were hostage to a series of events that resulted in the pop-up of pockets of systematic risks. Stranded talks over Greece’s debt problem is curbing the momentum of the recovery in Europe and raising uncertainty regarding the socio-economic implications of a potential Greek default or exit from the Euro zone. Not so far from Greece, the Turkish parliamentary election delivered a surprise outcome with no party able to form a government alone. While the OPEC meeting was a “no event”, news of investigation into bribery at the FIFA took its toll on the Qatari equity markets. On the other hand, regional and international investors are holding their breath awaiting the outcome of the final negotiation regarding Iran’s nuclear deal amid fighting escalation stretching from the Lebanese-Syrian borders all the way to Iraq. With all this noise, and border skirmishes with Yemeni armed groups, Saudi Arabia is on track to open its stock market to foreign investors on June 15. Turning from geopolitics to macroeconomics, it is worth to note that Europe was showing some signs of green shoots over the past few months on the back of ECB’s commitment to its Quantitative Easing program (purchase of assets by the central bank). However, the US and China in particular were the main contributors to the economic slowdown during the first half of 2015. While weakness in the US could be attributed to seasonal factors, the Chinese authority started recently to take some countercyclical measures that range from accommodative monetary policy to the relaxation of some import duties to encourage consumption. Based on this we expect to see a rebound in economic activity in H2 2015. Key issues for this recovery to build pace are stability in major currency and fixed income (funding) markets. On the first front we have noticed few statements favoring weaker USD, these include a statement (deemed denied) attributed to President Obama during the G7 meeting in Germany and remarks from Japan’s central bank governor regarding the weakness of the Yen vis a vis the USD. On the fixed income front, the recent volatility in European bond yields translated into volatility in US treasury and corporate yields not to mention stocks. This upheaval in markets coupled with pronounced selling pressures proved that reduced liquidity and high magnitude volatility are valid concerns although the ECB’s President Mario Draghi and US Fed’s “Chairman” Janet Yellen stressed that markets should expect high volatility. In this context, and because there is a reason to assume fire when we see smoke, as asset managers we take seriously that the IMF and the World Bank urged the US Fed to defer its rate hike to 2016 while major global fund managers are putting the probability of a rate hike in December at below 50%. As such a weaker USD and an accommodative monetary environment are a good recipe in our opinion for global economic growth and capital markets. We will shift our mind- set only when the tide changes course with valid confirmation. Until then we will keep pursuing a cautious approach by maintaining our discipline in being patient while waiting for bargains in an effort to pick investments with a margin of safety and simultaneously diversifying to enhance downside protection. For further information and to discuss possible investment opportunities, please contact: Asset Management Dept. Tel: +962 6 5200330 Ext. 494 and 832 [email protected] Monthly Newsletter Asset Management Dept. Asset Management Dept. | Monthly Newsletter “There are three classes of people: those who see, those who see when they are shown, those who do not see”-Leonardo da Vinci “Be happy for this moment. This moment is your life”. –Omar Khayyam Recent Asset Classes: It was all about Liquidity & Volatility Macro …Potential Recovery in H2 2015 Oil: Rally is Welcome but may be Reaching its Limit over the Short Run A Review of Saudi Arabia in Light of Opening the Equity Market to Foreigners June 11 th , 2015 Asset Management Team: Wassim Jomaa, CFA VP, Head of Asset Management [email protected] Samar Miqdadi Senior Portfolio Manager [email protected] Raed Al Momani Senior Financial Analyst [email protected] Qasem Bilbeisi Financial Analyst [email protected] This report must be read with the disclaimer at the end of the report.

Upload: vudang

Post on 25-Apr-2018

219 views

Category:

Documents


1 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Asset Management Dept. | Monthly Newsletter Yemeni armed groups, ... Head of Asset Management Wassim.Jomaa@Capitalinv.com ... Monthly Newsletter | Asset Management Dept. 4 June 11th,

Monthly Newsletter

Introduction With less than one month to complete the first half of our investment journey in 2015, global and regional capital markets were hostage to a series of events that resulted in the pop-up of pockets of systematic risks.

Stranded talks over Greece’s debt problem is curbing the momentum of the recovery in Europe and raising uncertainty regarding the socio-economic implications of a potential Greek default or exit from the Euro zone. Not so far from Greece, the Turkish parliamentary election delivered a surprise outcome with no party able to form a government alone.

While the OPEC meeting was a “no event”, news of investigation into bribery at the FIFA took its toll on the Qatari equity markets. On the other hand, regional and international investors are holding their breath awaiting the outcome of the final negotiation regarding Iran’s nuclear deal amid fighting escalation stretching from the Lebanese-Syrian borders all the way to Iraq. With all this noise, and border skirmishes with Yemeni armed groups, Saudi Arabia is on track to open its stock market to foreign investors on June 15.

Turning from geopolitics to macroeconomics, it is worth to note that Europe was showing some signs of green shoots over the past few months on the back of ECB’s commitment to its Quantitative Easing program (purchase of assets by the central bank). However, the US and China in particular were the main contributors to the economic slowdown during the first half of 2015. While weakness in the US could be attributed to seasonal factors, the Chinese authority started recently to take some countercyclical measures that range from accommodative monetary policy to the relaxation of some import duties to encourage consumption. Based on this we expect to see a rebound in economic activity in H2 2015.

Key issues for this recovery to build pace are stability in major currency and fixed income (funding) markets. On the first front we have noticed few statements favoring weaker USD, these include a statement (deemed denied) attributed to President Obama during the G7 meeting in Germany and remarks from Japan’s central bank governor regarding the weakness of the Yen vis a vis the USD.

On the fixed income front, the recent volatility in European bond yields translated into volatility in US treasury and corporate yields not to mention stocks. This upheaval in markets coupled with pronounced selling pressures proved that reduced liquidity and high magnitude volatility are valid concerns although the ECB’s President Mario Draghi and US Fed’s “Chairman” Janet Yellen stressed that markets should expect high volatility. In this context, and because there is a reason to assume fire when we see smoke, as asset managers we take seriously that the IMF and the World Bank urged the US Fed to defer its rate hike to 2016 while major global fund managers are putting the probability of a rate hike in December at below 50%. As such a weaker USD and an accommodative monetary environment are a good recipe in our opinion for global economic growth and capital markets. We will shift our mind- set only when the tide changes course with valid confirmation. Until then we will keep pursuing a cautious approach by maintaining our discipline in being patient while waiting for bargains in an effort to pick investments with a margin of safety and simultaneously diversifying to enhance downside protection.

For further information and to discuss possible investment opportunities, please contact:

Asset Management Dept.

Tel: +962 6 5200330

Ext. 494 and 832

[email protected]

Mo

nth

ly N

ew

sle

tte

r

Ass

et

Man

age

me

nt

De

pt.

Asset Management Dept. | Monthly Newsletter

“There are three classes of people: those who see, those who see when they are shown, those who do not see”-Leonardo da Vinci

“Be happy for this moment. This moment is your life”. –Omar Khayyam

Recent Asset Classes: It was all about Liquidity & Volatility

Macro …Potential Recovery in H2 2015

Oil: Rally is Welcome but may be Reaching its Limit over the Short Run

A Review of Saudi Arabia in Light of Opening the Equity Market to Foreigners

June 11th, 2015

Asset Management Team: Wassim Jomaa, CFA VP, Head of Asset Management [email protected]

Samar Miqdadi Senior Portfolio Manager [email protected]

Raed Al Momani Senior Financial Analyst [email protected]

Qasem Bilbeisi Financial Analyst [email protected]

This report must be read with the disclaimer at the end of the report.

Page 2: Asset Management Dept. | Monthly Newsletter Yemeni armed groups, ... Head of Asset Management Wassim.Jomaa@Capitalinv.com ... Monthly Newsletter | Asset Management Dept. 4 June 11th,

Monthly Newsletter | Asset Management Dept. 2

June 11th, 2015

Recent Asset Classes: It was all about Liquidity & Volatility

A strong USD coupled with a monetary withdrawal stance from the US Fed have led to a

shrinkage of liquidity, this resulted in sharp moves in markets deemed to be liquid such as the US

and German sovereign bonds. To make a general gauge of the global liquidity we are keeping an

eye on global foreign currency reserves which are following a downward trend since one year

and simultaneously we are closely watching the US Fed monetary base.

The TED spread is the difference between the three-month LIBOR and the three-month T-bill

interest rate. It is an indicator of perceived credit risk in the general economy, since T-bills are

considered risk-free while LIBOR reflects the credit risk of lending to commercial banks. The TED

spread was on a rising trend since Q4 2014, staying persistently above 0.25% is alarming and an

indication of stress in money markets. In addition we have noticed recently an uptick in other key

money market indicators such as the Eurodollar deposits rates and USD 3month Libor which

indicates that there was a little pressure in the funding market.

On the back of weak US macro data over the past few months and thus expectations that the US

Fed would not increase its key interest rates during its June meeting, the USD followed a

downward trend before catching ground on the back of re-assuring figures that the US economy

is back on track for better growth in H2 2015. The fact that the Fed officials are “data

dependent” and will assess potential interest rate increases on a meeting by meeting basis is

keeping investors on their toes and thus raising uncertainty regarding the timing of the hike and

12.03

11.57

10.00

10.50

11.00

11.50

12.00

Intl Reserve Assets Excluding Gold World (Trl USD)

3,951

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base (Bln USD)

27.53

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

TED Spread (bps)

94.79

79

84

89

94

99

DOLLAR INDEX SPOT

Sources: Bloomberg, Capital Investments , https://research.stlouisfed.org, Capital Investments The monetary base is also referred to as high powered money. In the money multiplier model, an increase in the monetary base can lead to a bigger proportional increase in overall money supply (broad money). Source: http://www.economicshelp.org

Source: Bloomberg, Capital Investments

Page 3: Asset Management Dept. | Monthly Newsletter Yemeni armed groups, ... Head of Asset Management Wassim.Jomaa@Capitalinv.com ... Monthly Newsletter | Asset Management Dept. 4 June 11th,

Monthly Newsletter | Asset Management Dept. 3

June 11th, 2015

how it’s going to progress not to mention its potential investment implications. As mentioned

earlier we are starting to notice signs that the probability of an interest rate hike is receding and

the appreciation of the Euro and the spike in German sovereign yields are leading indicators in

this context.

Gyrations in the European bond markets sent waves of turbulence across other financial markets

mainly those of US bonds and equities. The bond market was plagued by rising yields with great

magnitude and thus coupled with a sharp fall in prices (the rise in German 10 year yield from

almost 0.15% to 1% is equivalent to a fall of 10% in bond price or around 1000 points for the Dow

Jones Index). Besides the shocking magnitude of volatility, the rise in yield is taking place amid

mild economic data (in US and Europe), weak macro environment in China, and dovish central

banks in Europe and Japan. We do not think that the rise in German yields is due to the Greek

debt negotiation noise as it is not coupled with a fall in Euro out of fear, however we think it is an

indication of more normalized currency markets that will lead ultimately to a pick- up in growth

in the US and Europe and thus an increase in inflation which would then warrant an interest rate

hike at a later stage by the US Fed.

The above graphs illustrate the behavior of the Dow Jones index and the VIX index (volatility

index or fear gauge), while the Dow Jones was on a downward trend and following a volatile

pattern, it is obvious that the realized volatility in the stock market was not mirrored through the

VIX index which stayed relatively calm.

2.47

1.501.701.902.102.302.502.702.903.10

US Treasury 10 Year Yield, %

1.00

0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.60

Germany 10-yr Gov. Bond Yield, %

17,764

15,700

16,200

16,700

17,200

17,700

18,200

18,700 Dow Jones Industrial Avg. Index

14

9.00

14.00

19.00

24.00

29.00

VIX (Volatility S&P 500), %

Source: Bloomberg, Capital Investments

Source: Bloomberg, Capital Investments

Page 4: Asset Management Dept. | Monthly Newsletter Yemeni armed groups, ... Head of Asset Management Wassim.Jomaa@Capitalinv.com ... Monthly Newsletter | Asset Management Dept. 4 June 11th,

Monthly Newsletter | Asset Management Dept. 4

June 11th, 2015

As for gold it was relatively moving sideways with a downward bias due to rise in yields and the

recent appreciation of the USD. On a separate note we are following the El Niño phenomenon

which describes the fluctuations in temperature between the ocean and atmosphere in the

region stretching from Australasia to South America. This phenomenon will lead to droughts in

many regions and as a result would deliver potential shocks to commodity prices and food

inflation pressures in the future, these could include: Sugar from Brazil, Indian rice, dairy and

beef in Australia due to less pasture space, in addition to reduction in key metal production that

relies on hydroelectric power.

Macro …Potential Recovery in H2 2015

We mentioned earlier that the US and China were the main contributors to weakness in the

global economy over the past few months. However the softness in the US data could be

attributed to temporary factors such as freezing weather during winter, and ports strike in the

west coast. Despite being mixed, recent data releases pointed that the economy is turning the

corner. Chief among these figures are encouraging non-farm payroll (jobs) data coupled with

rising confidence and improvement in the housing sector as indicated by the graphs below. On

the other hand, weak business investment and high inventory to sales ratio continue to be the

major concerns.

1,190

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

Gold ($ per Troy Ounce)

229

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

CRB Commodity Index

280

0

100

200

300

400

500

US Employees on Nonfarm Payrolls, MoM Net Change (Thousands)

-2.7

-10.00

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

US Durable Goods New Orders YoY, %

Source: Bloomberg, Capital Investments

Page 5: Asset Management Dept. | Monthly Newsletter Yemeni armed groups, ... Head of Asset Management Wassim.Jomaa@Capitalinv.com ... Monthly Newsletter | Asset Management Dept. 4 June 11th,

Monthly Newsletter | Asset Management Dept. 5

June 11th, 2015

On the other side of the Atlantic, the accommodative monetary policy employed by the ECB is

being fruitful as epitomized by the fall in unemployment rate, improvement in inflation figures,

enhancement in sentiment, and most importantly the increase in lending activities.

As for China, reported data continues to be weak at almost all levels, fixed assets investments,

retail sales, and industrial production are growing below expectations. However, Chinese officials

have been taking key measures to manage a growth target of 7% and avoid a hard landing. These

include, lowering interest rates for the third time since November 2014, while requesting banks

to lend to provincial governments, in addition to slashing import duties on a wide range of

consumer product. Through these measures, the Chinese authorities are trying to deal with key

challenges that include, industrial overcapacity, troubled property market, shadow banking, and

local government debt issues in a way to achieve their growth objective and to ensure the

smooth transition of their economy to a new normal based on domestic consumption. We

expect that China will take further measures to step up its economy which would put some

grease to the global economic engine in H2 2015.

95.4

85.00

90.00

95.00

100.00

105.00

Conference Board Consumer Confidence

1135

800850900950

10001050110011501200

Housing Starts (Units/ Thousand)

0.3

-0.80

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

Eurozone Inflation Rate, %

11.10

10.8010.9011.0011.1011.2011.3011.4011.5011.6011.70

Eurostat Eurozone Unemployment Rate, %

Source: Bloomberg, Capital Investments

Source: Bloomberg, Capital Investments

Page 6: Asset Management Dept. | Monthly Newsletter Yemeni armed groups, ... Head of Asset Management Wassim.Jomaa@Capitalinv.com ... Monthly Newsletter | Asset Management Dept. 4 June 11th,

Monthly Newsletter | Asset Management Dept. 6

June 11th, 2015

The table below summarizes major PMI’s trends up to May 2015

5.9

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

China Industrial Production YOY Change, %

10

9.009.50

10.0010.5011.0011.5012.0012.5013.00

China Retail Sales YOY Change, %

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

Global Manufacturing 52.4 52.5 52.2 52.2 51.8 51.5 51.7 51.9 51.8 51.0 51.2

Global Services 56.0 55.5 55.2 53.6 53.4 52.5 53.0 54.1 55.2 54.8 54.1

Global Compos ite 55.6 55.2 54.8 53.5 53.2 52.4 53.0 53.9 54.9 54.2 53.6

US Manufacturing 56.4 58.1 56.1 57.9 57.6 55.1 53.5 52.9 51.5 51.5 52.8

US Services 57.9 58.6 58.1 56.9 58.8 56.5 56.7 56.9 56.5 57.8 55.7

US Manuf. New Orders 62.0 63.9 59.4 63.0 62.1 57.8 52.9 52.5 51.8 53.5 55.8

EU Manufacturing 51.8 50.7 50.3 50.6 50.1 50.6 51.0 51.0 52.2 52.0 52.2

EU Services 54.2 53.1 52.4 52.3 51.1 51.6 52.7 53.7 54.2 54.1 53.8

EU Compos ite 53.8 52.5 52.0 52.1 51.1 51.4 52.6 53.3 54.0 53.9 53.6

China Manufacturing 51.7 51.1 51.1 50.8 50.3 50.1 49.8 49.9 50.1 50.1 50.2

China Services 54.2 54.4 54.0 53.8 53.9 54.1 53.7 53.9 53.7 53.4 53.2

China Manuf. New Orders 53.6 52.5 52.2 51.6 50.9 50.4 50.2 50.4 50.2 50.2 50.6

* PMI reading above 50 indicates economy expansion

* Red points displayed within the lines above indicate highest point in the range

* Figures in green indicate acceleration from previous month, while red indicate deceleration

Source: Bloomberg, Capital Investments

Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI) (2014-2015):

Source: Bloomberg, Capital Investments

Page 7: Asset Management Dept. | Monthly Newsletter Yemeni armed groups, ... Head of Asset Management Wassim.Jomaa@Capitalinv.com ... Monthly Newsletter | Asset Management Dept. 4 June 11th,

Monthly Newsletter | Asset Management Dept. 7

June 11th, 2015

Oil: Rally is Welcome but may be reaching its Limit over the Short Run

Almost one year has elapsed since oil prices started to slide and despite the impressive rally since

March 2015 from the mid- forties level to the current price of USD 65 per barrel, oil prices are

still 40% down from their peak in June 2014.

While we welcome the recent rally that was backed by inventory drawdown due to the US

summer fuel demand and the Chinese refilling of their strategic reserves, we think that

sustainable price gain over the short term are unsustainable due to weak underlying

fundamentals.

65.57

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120 Brent Crude Oil Prices (USD/Bbl)

Toward the mid of September 2014 Saudi Arabia declared that it pumped an additional 100k barrel per day amid a glut of supply and that it lowered its official selling price to Asia in a way to protect its market shares which led to further weakness in oil prices that were trading relatively in a range channel during the year

The USD started to appreciate since early July which drove oil prices lower

Oil prices moving in a range channel

On October 13th according to Reuters, Saudi Arabia tells oil market participants to get used to lower oil prices for a longer time while speculation is rising regarding a potential oil supply cut on the November 27th meeting in Vienna

Glut persistent, IEA warns on lack of investment in new production due to low oil prices, Research Houses lower their forecast on oil price to USD 40

October 14th the IEA which is a club representing oil consumers issued a report by which it lowered its forecast for oil consumption in 2015 due to weak economic demand by 300k barrel a day to be 1.1mln barrel a day which led to a 4 USD free fall in oil prices

“OPEC meeting”; On November 27, OPEC governing body represented by the oil ministers of the 12 member countries decided to keep the oil production unchanged at 30mln barrel per day. Oil markets received the news badly and Brent crude oil prices plunged by 11% before stabilizing near USD 70 per barrel

After touching a nadir of $46.6 (Brent) on January 13, 2015, oil prices jumped by 20% on the following supply factors:

- IEA spots signs that oils decline “tide will turn”,

- Rig counts in the US fell significantly,

- Aramco in Saudi, along with BP and others cut spending on Capex significantly in 2015,

- Supply disruptions in Libya - On the demand front OPEC

raised demand forecast for its oil by 430k bpd

Source: Bloomberg, Capital Investments

Oil prices drop from USD 60/barrel as IEA see glut persistent given inventory build -up continues with limited storage capacities in addition to strong USD Oil prices inched higher in April on the back of lower than expected rise in inventory in the US coupled with softer USD, Saudi selling May contract at a premium, & a consensus that Iranian oil will affect the market in 2016

Oil prices rebounded sharply above USD 60 per barrel as the drop in rig counts in the US continued, coupled with a weak USD and supply disruptions from few OPEC members (Libya, Nigeria and Iraq) in addition to easing supply glut in the US

Page 8: Asset Management Dept. | Monthly Newsletter Yemeni armed groups, ... Head of Asset Management Wassim.Jomaa@Capitalinv.com ... Monthly Newsletter | Asset Management Dept. 4 June 11th,

Monthly Newsletter | Asset Management Dept. 8

June 11th, 2015

For instance, current demand is deemed seasonal as refineries will cut their utilization rates once

the US summer driving season ends. On the other hand, the OPEC meeting in June was non

eventful and thus investors focus turned again on production levels which are still high among

OPEC nations and a few shale producers whose cost of production is competitive when oil prices

are above USD 60. The sustained supply is keeping the surplus of inventory in the range of 1.3 to

1.5mln barrel per day.

Some upside risk to our short term price scenarios include, weaker USD, materialization of

growth in demand as forecasted by EIA and OPEC faster than expected due to better global

economic performance, supply disruptions from Iraq, Libya, or Nigeria and environmentalist

pressure to stop oil transportation by rail after the registration of few accidents of trains

derailment in the US and Canada.

A Review of Saudi Arabia in Light of Opening the Equity Market to Foreigners

During the second quarter of 2015, and post the escalation in Yemen, market participants

capitalized on opening the door for foreign investors as well as on the recent enhancement in oil

prices to recoup some gains. Afterward, the Saudi market proved to be quite resilient, though

neither the current valuation nor the expected/ future valuations could justify these levels; It is

imperative to emphasize that the Saudi market witnessed some negative events during this

quarter such as Yemen’s tensions and the IMF projections of 20% budget deficit.

8,619

9,542

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000Saudi Arabia Tadawul Index

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

10

20

30

40

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2012 2013 2014 2015

SAR

Bln

Tadawul Total Market NetProfit in Billion SAR (LHS)Market PE (RHS)

0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2012 2013 2014 2015

SAR

Bln

Tadawul Total Market Salesin Billion SAR (LHS)

EBIT Margin (RHS)

Source: Bloomberg, Capital Investments

The market was trading sideways on a low volume in anticipation of a flow of liquidity upon opening to foreigners which is not guaranteed given valuation levels

Source: Bloomberg, Capital Investments

Page 9: Asset Management Dept. | Monthly Newsletter Yemeni armed groups, ... Head of Asset Management Wassim.Jomaa@Capitalinv.com ... Monthly Newsletter | Asset Management Dept. 4 June 11th,

Monthly Newsletter | Asset Management Dept. 9

June 11th, 2015

Although it is expected that the market as a whole would deliver better results in the second

quarter in terms of earning vis a vis the first quarter and led by the petrochemical sector due to

higher oil price, on a year on year basis performance will continue to be muted and thus prove

that valuation in certain market pockets are overstretched. In this context, our approach to Saudi

Arabia would be selective on a case by case basis following a clustering structure and clear

investment themes identification.

9%

11%

13%

15%

17%

19%

21%

4550556065707580

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2012 2013 2014 2015

SAR

Bln

Saudi Tadawul Petrochemical Sector

Sales (LHS) EBIT Margin (RHS)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2012 2013 2014 2015

SAR

Bln

Saudi Tadawul Banking Sector Sales

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

15

17

19

21

23

25

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2012 2013 2014 2015

SAR

Bln

Saudi TadawulTelecom Sector

Sales (LHS) EBIT Margin (RHS)

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2012 2013 2014 2015

SAR

Bln

Saudi Tadawul Building Materials Sector

Sales (LHS) EBIT Margin (RHS)

On a quarterly basis, the petrochemical sector is expected to register better results than 1Q-2015 but lower than 2Q-2014, since the average oil price for 2Q-2015 is around 15% higher than 1Q-2015 but around 42% lower than 2Q-2014

The second quarter of the year is generally the strongest for banks. However this should be taken with a grain of salt and a differentiation process should be applied on targeted investment universe as some banks are trading at unjustified multiples. Plays would include banks with potential lower provisioning, or higher growth prospects within a cost efficient context along with limited dilution effect in case of capital increase in addition to few beta picks

With the Mobily saga still in play, will it still be the main sector performance driver?

The outlook for the Cement sector in 2Q-2015 is looking solid as the sector sales rose in May and April by 7% and 9% respectively, moreover the sector might benefit from the potential housing theme despite generous dividends investors should factor in the summer seasonality

Source: Bloomberg, Capital Investments

Source: Bloomberg, Capital Investments

Page 10: Asset Management Dept. | Monthly Newsletter Yemeni armed groups, ... Head of Asset Management Wassim.Jomaa@Capitalinv.com ... Monthly Newsletter | Asset Management Dept. 4 June 11th,

Monthly Newsletter | Asset Management Dept. 10

June 11th, 2015

3%

5%

7%

9%

11%

13%

15%

2

4

6

8

10

12

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2012 2013 2014 2015

SAR

Bln

Saudi Tadawul Retail Sector

Sales (LHS) EBIT Margin (RHS)

As for the retail sector, the recent “point of sales” data showed that the impact of the two month salary bonus was short lived, thus it is expected that 2Q-2015 results will be modest, bearing in mind that the food & beverage segment as well as the grocery segment should deliver decent results due to shifting seasonality in Ramadan month. However, some stand -alone names offer selective opportunities coupled with dividend and strong fundamentals Source: Bloomberg, Capital Investments

Page 11: Asset Management Dept. | Monthly Newsletter Yemeni armed groups, ... Head of Asset Management Wassim.Jomaa@Capitalinv.com ... Monthly Newsletter | Asset Management Dept. 4 June 11th,

Monthly Newsletter | Asset Management Dept. 11

June 11th, 2015

Major Indices Status as of end Performance

Dec. 2014 May. 2015 May. 2015 YTD (31 May. 2015)

MENA

Abu Dhabi 4,528.93 4,527.63 -2.57% -0.03%

Bahrain 1,426.57 1,363.67 -1.94% -4.41%

Dubai 3,774.00 3,923.24 -7.23% 3.95%

Egypt 8,926.58 8,782.55 1.27% -1.61%

Jordan 2,165.46 2,183.57 3.22% 0.84%

Kuwait 6,535.72 6,292.46 -1.33% -3.72%

Lebanon 1,170.26 1,193.65 -0.03% 2.00%

Morocco 9,620.11 9,711.36 -2.27% 0.95%

Oman 6,343.22 6,387.85 1.03% 0.70%

Palestine 502.79 478.85 -1.07% -4.76%

Qatar 12,285.78 12,048.26 -0.96% -1.93%

Saudi Arabia 8,333.30 9,688.69 -1.48% 16.26%

Tunisia 5,089.99 5,646.40 1.83% 10.93%

S&P Pan Arab Composite 795.11 845.02 -1.82% 6.28%

Dow Jones MENA 599.89 626.91 -2.01% 4.50%

Americas

Dow Jones Industrial 17,823.07 18,010.68 0.95% 1.05%

S&P 500 2,058.90 2,107.39 1.05% 2.36%

NASDAQ Composite 4,736.05 5,070.03 2.60% 7.05%

S&P/Toronto Composite 14,632.44 15,014.09 -1.38% 2.61%

Europe

EURO Stoxx 50 3,146.43 3,570.78 -1.24% 13.49%

S&P Europe 350 Index 1,401.41 1,630.23 0.78% 16.33%

FTSE 100 Index/ London 6,566.09 6,984.43 0.34% 6.37%

FTSE MIB Index/ Italy 19,011.96 23,495.68 1.95% 23.58%

DAX Index/ Germany 9,805.55 11,413.82 -0.35% 16.40%

ASIA/Pacific

NIKKEI 225/ Japan 17,450.77 20,563.15 5.34% 17.84%

S&P/ASX 200/ Australia 5,411.02 5,777.16 -0.22% 6.77%

BRIC

Brazil/ Bovespa 50,007.41 52,760.48 -6.17% 5.51%

Russia/ RTS 790.71 968.81 -5.88% 22.52%

India/ Bombay Sensitive 27,499.42 27,828.44 3.03% 1.20%

China/ Shanghai Composite 3,234.68 4,611.74 3.83% 42.57%

Hong Kong/ Hang Seng 23,605.04 27,424.19 -2.52% 16.18%

Source: Bloomberg, Capital Investments

Page 12: Asset Management Dept. | Monthly Newsletter Yemeni armed groups, ... Head of Asset Management Wassim.Jomaa@Capitalinv.com ... Monthly Newsletter | Asset Management Dept. 4 June 11th,

Monthly Newsletter | Asset Management Dept. 12

June 11th, 2015

Description Closing Prices as of end Performance

Dec. 2014 May. 2015 May. 2015 YTD (31 May. 2015)

Commodities (in USD)

Brent Spot (Barrel) 55.76 63.89 -1.50% 14.58%

WTI Cushing Spot (Barrel) 53.27 60.30 1.12% 13.20%

Natural Gas NYMEX (MMBtu) 3.01 2.64 -5.71% -12.28%

Gold Spot (OZ) 1,185 1,191 0.52% 0.48%

Silver Spot (OZ) 15.70 16.75 3.72% 6.67%

Copper LME Spot (MT) 6,368 6,005 -0.98% -5.70%

Iron Ore Spot Price 62% USD (MT) 69.30 61.10 11.50% -11.83%

Corn CBOT Active Month (Bushel) 4.13 3.52 -8.52% -14.79%

Wheat CBOT Active Month (Bushel) 5.98 4.77 -7.20% -20.17%

Soybean CBOT Active Month (Bushel) 10.37 9.34 -4.47% -9.93%

Rough Rice Futures (USD/cwt) 12.25 9.51 -14.40% -22.34%

Currencies Spot Exchange Rates Against US Dollar

Euro 1.2098 1.0986 -2.12% -9.19%

GBP 1.5577 1.5291 -0.39% -1.84%

CAD 0.8605 0.8031 -3.04% -6.67%

Yen 0.0084 0.0081 -3.84% -3.59%

CNY 0.1611 0.1613 0.04% 0.12%

Source: Bloomberg, Capital Investments

610

0200400600800

1000120014001600

Baltic Dry Index

The Baltic Dry Index tracks worldwide international shipping prices of various dry bulk cargoes. It provides an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea. Recently showing demand in emerging markets.

Source: Bloomberg, Capital Investments

Page 13: Asset Management Dept. | Monthly Newsletter Yemeni armed groups, ... Head of Asset Management Wassim.Jomaa@Capitalinv.com ... Monthly Newsletter | Asset Management Dept. 4 June 11th,

Monthly Newsletter | Asset Management Dept. 13

June 11th, 2015

Disclaimer The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Capital Investments makes no warranty as to the accuracy and completeness of the information contained herein. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute and reflect our independent judgment as of the date published on the report and are subject to change without notice. Capital Investments accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss of any kind arising out of the use of all or any part of this report. Capital Investments and its related companies may have performed or seek to perform any financial or advisory services for the companies mentioned in this report. Capital Investments, its funds, or its employees may from time to time take positions or effect transactions in the securities issued by the companies mentioned in this report .This document may not be reproduced in any form without the expressed written permission of Capital Investments. The opinions contained within the report are based upon publicly available information at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Prior to investing, investors should seek independent financial, tax and legal advice.

Capital Investments

Asset Management Dept.

Tel: +962 6 5200330 Ext. 494 & 832

[email protected]