assets reporter - callan€¦ · callan’s real estate indicators have long played a role in our...
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Knowledge. Experience. Integrity.
CALLAN INSTITUTE Real
Assets Reporter
Spotlight: Creating Our Real Estate Indicators
Given their prominence, we thought it would be helpful to describe how they were developed. Their creation began in the depths of the Global Financial Crisis, as commercial real estate suffered dramatic declines. Callan held numer-ous discussions with clients about how they should position their allocations to real estate given the market environment. One client asked us to develop a system to provide “warning signs” of possible trouble ahead with real estate assets.
Winter/Spring 2017IN THIS ISSUE pg. 1 Spotlightpg. 5 Real Estate Reviewpg. 7 Characteristics and Datapg. 9 Periodic Table vs. Inflation
“If you look at the metrics in combination and look at their relative relationships historically, they did a pretty good job of forecasting where we are in the real estate cycle.”
Avery A. Robinson, CAIA Senior Vice President and Co-Manager of Callan’s Real Assets Consulting group
Callan’s Real Estate Indicators have long played a role in our discussions with clients and our approach to investing in this asset class. The most recent update indicates that the com-mercial real estate market is in the middle of its cycle—neither too hot nor too cold. While it is not as advantageous a time to buy real estate as it was in 2010 and 2011 when the mar-ket was climbing out of the bottom, Callan recommends that deploying capital into real estate at this point in the cycle is still advantageous for investors with a long-term perspective because of the asset class’s benefits to the overall portfolio.
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2
How Callan Developed the Indicators Callan’s Real Assets Consulting group embraced the chal-lenge and ultimately produced Real Estate Indicators: Too Hot to Touch or Cool Enough to Handle? This charticle is a visualization of the relationships between key indicators that provides a tool to measure the health of the commercial real estate market.
To get to that point, Avery Robinson, Callan’s co-manager of the Real Assets group, worked with other Callan experts to evaluate a number of different indicators and examine their relationships. We used data going back to the 1970s to deter-mine which set of metrics provided a means for determining whether the market was too hot or had cooled down. During the analysis, we purposefully tested a wide array of indicators, both directly and indirectly related to private real estate, as we did not want the research to be limited by the traditional meth-ods of how private real estate is monitored and evaluated.
Quartile Results WIDE SPREAD: blue blocks signal quarters when spreads were the widest (top quartile)
NARROW SPREAD: red blocks are periods when spreads were narrowest or inverted (fourth quartile)
2nd Quartile: green blocks define quarters when spreads were less wide
3rd Quartile: yellow blocks mark quarters when spreads narrowed
NCREIF Income vs. NCREIF AppreciationCap Rates vs. 3-Month TreasuryCap Rates vs. 10-Year Treasury10-Year Treasury vs. 6-Month TreasuryNAREIT Total vs. NCREIF Total ReturnNAREIT Dividend vs. 10-Year Treasury
The seven indicator spreads reveal multiple instances when wide spreads (cool indicators) preceded stable or increasing performance, and narrow spreads (hot indicators) were more prevalent before declining market periods. Indicators have cooled during recent quarters, with very few spreads at red or orange levels.
INDI
CATO
R SP
READ
S
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%2013 2014 2015 20161992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Baa Bond vs. 10-Year Treasury
NCRE
IF QU
ARTE
RLY
RETU
RNS
The -5.3% total return decline in 1991 was preceded by eight consecutive quarters with three to five hot indicators from mid 1988 to mid 1990.
Three years of primarily cool indicators from 2001 to 2004 preceded a period of stable or increasing returns.
Indicators heated up in 2006 and 2007, prior to a dive in NCREIF returns in late 2008.
Income Return
Capital Return
Total Return
Quartile Results WIDE SPREAD: blue blocks signal quarters when spreads were the widest (top quartile)
NARROW SPREAD: red blocks are periods when spreads were narrowest or inverted (fourth quartile)
2nd Quartile: green blocks define quarters when spreads were less wide
3rd Quartile: yellow blocks mark quarters when spreads narrowed
NCREIF Income vs. NCREIF AppreciationCap Rates vs. 3-Month TreasuryCap Rates vs. 10-Year Treasury10-Year Treasury vs. 6-Month TreasuryNAREIT Total vs. NCREIF Total ReturnNAREIT Dividend vs. 10-Year Treasury
The seven indicator spreads reveal multiple instances when wide spreads (cool indicators) preceded stable or increasing performance, and narrow spreads (hot indicators) were more prevalent before declining market periods. Indicators have cooled during recent quarters, with very few spreads at red or orange levels.
INDI
CATO
R SP
READ
S
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%2013 2014 2015 20161992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Baa Bond vs. 10-Year Treasury
NCRE
IF QU
ARTE
RLY
RETU
RNS
The -5.3% total return decline in 1991 was preceded by eight consecutive quarters with three to five hot indicators from mid 1988 to mid 1990.
Three years of primarily cool indicators from 2001 to 2004 preceded a period of stable or increasing returns.
Income Return
Capital Return
Total Return
1
After a rigorous process of backtesting, Robinson found that certain indicators and their spreads (i.e., the difference between specific pairs of them) best predicted the commercial real estate market cycle (see Step 2 above).
Some of the metrics, such as the NCREIF income return, are directly related to the real estate market, but others, such as the 10-year Treasury rate, are only indirectly related. Individually these spreads offer little guidance for real estate investors, but assessed collectively Callan believes that narrowed spreads across multiple indicators frequently occur prior to periods of declining returns. Conversely, widening spreads have often been followed by periods of stable or increasing returns. These historical trends reveal the unpredictable nature of real estate market cycles, highlighting the importance of a long-term per-spective for investors.
Callan first released the Indicators in 2010, with data we had been collecting since the firm first began following the commer-cial real estate market in the 1970s. They are updated quarterly.
Quartile Results WIDE SPREAD: blue blocks signal quarters when spreads were the widest (top quartile)
NARROW SPREAD: red blocks are periods when spreads were narrowest or inverted (fourth quartile)
2nd Quartile: green blocks define quarters when spreads were less wide
3rd Quartile: yellow blocks mark quarters when spreads narrowed
NCREIF Income vs. NCREIF AppreciationCap Rates vs. 3-Month TreasuryCap Rates vs. 10-Year Treasury10-Year Treasury vs. 6-Month TreasuryNAREIT Total vs. NCREIF Total ReturnNAREIT Dividend vs. 10-Year Treasury
The seven indicator spreads reveal multiple instances when wide spreads (cool indicators) preceded stable or increasing performance, and narrow spreads (hot indicators) were more prevalent before declining market periods. Indicators have cooled during recent quarters, with very few spreads at red or orange levels.
INDI
CATO
R SP
READ
S
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%2013 2014 2015 20161992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Baa Bond vs. 10-Year Treasury
NCRE
IF QU
ARTE
RLY
RETU
RNS
The -5.3% total return decline in 1991 was preceded by eight consecutive quarters with three to five hot indicators from mid 1988 to mid 1990.
Three years of primarily cool indicators from 2001 to 2004 preceded a period of stable or increasing returns.
Indicators heated up in 2006 and 2007, prior to a dive in NCREIF returns in late 2008.
Income Return
Capital Return
Total Return
The Global Financial Crisis spurred a research project to gauge the “temperature” of the real estate cycle.
Callan chose these indicators and their spreads to determine the state of the real estate cycle.
STEP 1
STEP 2
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3Knowledge. Experience. Integrity.
Value and opportunistic real estate can both be accretive to a portfolio; it is important to note that they tend to have a higher correlation with the broad economic environment. In addition, these strategies are most often executed in closed-end vehicles that are sensitive to vintage-year effects. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are another solution; while they can be a valuable component of a portfolio, they tend to have a higher correlation with equities.
Fees are a major consideration for real estate investors, as many wonder if they are getting the appropriate “bang for their buck.” Callan believes that because real estate has per-formed very well over long historical time periods, it is worth the money despite higher fees than some other asset classes.
To evaluate real estate opportunities for our clients, Callan leverages a variety of information, including the Real Estate Indicators, to help identify where we are at in the real estate cycle and inform the best options for each investor.
Quartile Results WIDE SPREAD: blue blocks signal quarters when spreads were the widest (top quartile)
NARROW SPREAD: red blocks are periods when spreads were narrowest or inverted (fourth quartile)
2nd Quartile: green blocks define quarters when spreads were less wide
3rd Quartile: yellow blocks mark quarters when spreads narrowed
NCREIF Income vs. NCREIF AppreciationCap Rates vs. 3-Month TreasuryCap Rates vs. 10-Year Treasury10-Year Treasury vs. 6-Month TreasuryNAREIT Total vs. NCREIF Total ReturnNAREIT Dividend vs. 10-Year Treasury
The seven indicator spreads reveal multiple instances when wide spreads (cool indicators) preceded stable or increasing performance, and narrow spreads (hot indicators) were more prevalent before declining market periods. Indicators have cooled during recent quarters, with very few spreads at red or orange levels.
INDI
CATO
R SP
READ
S
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%2013 2014 2015 20161992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Baa Bond vs. 10-Year Treasury
NCRE
IF QU
ARTE
RLY
RETU
RNS
The -5.3% total return decline in 1991 was preceded by eight consecutive quarters with three to five hot indicators from mid 1988 to mid 1990.
Three years of primarily cool indicators from 2001 to 2004 preceded a period of stable or increasing returns.
Indicators heated up in 2006 and 2007, prior to a dive in NCREIF returns in late 2008.
Income Return
Capital Return
Total Return
Quartile Results WIDE SPREAD: blue blocks signal quarters when spreads were the widest (top quartile)
NARROW SPREAD: red blocks are periods when spreads were narrowest or inverted (fourth quartile)
2nd Quartile: green blocks define quarters when spreads were less wide
3rd Quartile: yellow blocks mark quarters when spreads narrowed
NCREIF Income vs. NCREIF AppreciationCap Rates vs. 3-Month TreasuryCap Rates vs. 10-Year Treasury10-Year Treasury vs. 6-Month TreasuryNAREIT Total vs. NCREIF Total ReturnNAREIT Dividend vs. 10-Year Treasury
The seven indicator spreads reveal multiple instances when wide spreads (cool indicators) preceded stable or increasing performance, and narrow spreads (hot indicators) were more prevalent before declining market periods. Indicators have cooled during recent quarters, with very few spreads at red or orange levels.
INDI
CATO
R SP
READ
S
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%2013 2014 2015 20161992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Baa Bond vs. 10-Year Treasury
NCRE
IF QU
ARTE
RLY
RETU
RNS
The -5.3% total return decline in 1991 was preceded by eight consecutive quarters with three to five hot indicators from mid 1988 to mid 1990.
Three years of primarily cool indicators from 2001 to 2004 preceded a period of stable or increasing returns.
Indicators heated up in 2006 and 2007, prior to a dive in NCREIF returns in late 2008.
Income Return
Capital Return
Total Return
Putting the Indicators into PracticeIn addition to providing a sense of the market cycle, the Indicators help in broader conversations we have with clients. Investors primarily add real estate to their portfolios for diver-sification with other asset classes, especially equities and fixed income. In fact, real estate tends to perform somewhere between equities and bonds. Real estate also provides an inflation hedge as well as yield enhancement—both of which are particularly critical in the current investment environment and are also helpful over long market cycles.
In Callan’s experience, core real estate is the most prevalent implementation; it is not uncommon to see 70% or more of an institutional investor’s real estate allocation in core. That is in part because it is the most conservative category of private real estate, yet offers the greatest amount of income because it tends to have higher occupancy rates than other types of real estate. In addition, core is one of the easier strategies to implement because of the robust universe of core open-end funds that offer investors quick access to an existing, diversi-fied portfolio, typically within six to nine months (depending on prevailing contribution queues).
Quartile Results WIDE SPREAD: blue blocks signal quarters when spreads were the widest (top quartile)
NARROW SPREAD: red blocks are periods when spreads were narrowest or inverted (fourth quartile)
2nd Quartile: green blocks define quarters when spreads were less wide
3rd Quartile: yellow blocks mark quarters when spreads narrowed
NCREIF Income vs. NCREIF AppreciationCap Rates vs. 3-Month TreasuryCap Rates vs. 10-Year Treasury10-Year Treasury vs. 6-Month TreasuryNAREIT Total vs. NCREIF Total ReturnNAREIT Dividend vs. 10-Year Treasury
The seven indicator spreads reveal multiple instances when wide spreads (cool indicators) preceded stable or increasing performance, and narrow spreads (hot indicators) were more prevalent before declining market periods. Indicators have cooled during recent quarters, with very few spreads at red or orange levels.
INDI
CATO
R SP
READ
S
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%2013 2014 2015 20161992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Baa Bond vs. 10-Year Treasury
NCRE
IF QU
ARTE
RLY
RETU
RNS
The -5.3% total return decline in 1991 was preceded by eight consecutive quarters with three to five hot indicators from mid 1988 to mid 1990.
Three years of primarily cool indicators from 2001 to 2004 preceded a period of stable or increasing returns.
Indicators heated up in 2006 and 2007, prior to a dive in NCREIF returns in late 2008.
Income Return
Capital Return
Total Return
The Indicators were first published in 2010 but took advantage of data stretching back to the 1970s.
The charticle presents data in an easy-to-understand way using color coding.
STEP 3
STEP 4
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4
What We Analyze to Produce the Real Estate Indicators
The key metrics that produce the Real Estate Indicators are the spreads between:
1. NCREIF Income vs. Appreciation: Core real estate investors expect a majority of total return from the NCREIF Property Index to be earned from income. When this spread narrows, investors earn a larger share of returns from the more speculative appreciation component.
2. Cap Rates vs. Three-Month Treasury: A cap rate is the ratio of annualized net operating income to property value. Narrow spreads and low cap rates suggest investors may be assuming risk they may not be compensated for. Wider spreads indicate that investors demand higher risk premiums for private real estate investments compared to short-term Treasuries.
3. Cap Rates vs. 10-Year Treasury: This spread offers insight into the size of the risk premium demanded for private real estate compared to longer-term, ultra-safe investments.
4. 10-Year Treasury vs. Six-Month Treasury: Many economists suggest that low or inverted spreads can predict reces-sionary conditions. Wider spreads suggest higher interest rates and inflation in the long term.
5. NAREIT Total vs. NCREIF Total: NAREIT Total reflects leveraged returns from dividend income plus capital appre-ciation for publicly traded real estate investment trusts (REITs), while NCREIF Total represents unleveraged dividend income plus capital appreciation on commercial real estate investment properties. The volatility of the NAREIT Index is higher than that of the NCREIF Index, suggesting a residual equity component to the NAREIT. The NAREIT Index may also be a leading indicator for the privately held NCREIF Index.
6. NAREIT Dividend vs. 10-Year Treasury: The NAREIT Dividend reflects REIT dividends only on leveraged invest-ments. Narrowing spreads indicate investors’ willingness to accept a lower risk premium for an asset in a higher-risk category than Treasuries.
7. Baa Bond vs. 10-Year Treasury: Wider spreads indicate bond investors demand higher risk premiums, signaling weak credit market health. Spreads narrow when conditions in the credit markets are more favorable.
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5Knowledge. Experience. Integrity.
Real Estate Review Kevin Nagy
In the U.S., REITs started the quarter with a sharp decline due to an increase in interest rates. Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the presidential election sent rates even higher and further punished many REIT sectors, especially those that represent a higher weight in the Index. Health Care (-10.80%) was the worst performer, hammered by the possibility that the incoming Republican administration would repeal the Affordable Care Act. Retail (-10.73%) and Infrastructure (-6.95%) also suffered large losses. The biggest winner for the quarter was the Hotel sector, which skyrocketed 20.39% with the election of Trump, a hotelier. Specialty (+6.67%) and Data Centers (+0.82%) were other strong-performing sectors for the quarter. Politics and interest rates drove some REIT valuations downward, despite generally strong fundamentals.
Political issues also impacted the European market. Fears of a hard Brexit slowed transaction volume in the U.K., despite strong economic data suggesting that the economy was still on track. On the continent, pricing and transactions were weighed down by fears of an Italian banking crisis and uncertainty concerning France’s upcoming elections.
The NCREIF Property Index advanced 1.73% during the fourth quarter (1.14% from income and 0.59% from apprecia-tion). This was the lowest return since 2010, eclipsing the third quarter’s mark of 1.78%. Appreciation fell for the seventh con-secutive quarter.
Industrial (+2.89%) was the best-performing sector for the third quarter in a row and Apartments (+1.67%) and Retail (+1.65%) also posted strong relative returns; Hotels (+0.37%) were the worst performers. The West region posted the stron-gest results (+2.22%), and the Midwest was the weakest (+1.29%). Transaction volume totaled $14 billion, the highest on record, a 45% jump over the previous quarter, and a 24% increase over the same period in 2015. Appraisal capitalization rates fell to 4.43%, a new all-time low, undercutting the third quarter’s 4.48%. Transaction capitalization rates fell sharply from 6.21% to 5.66% in the fourth quarter, tightening the spread between appraisal and transactional rates to 123 bps.
Occupancy rates stayed steady at 93.22%, a 15-year high hit in the third quarter. For the second straight quarter Retail and Apartment occupancy rates fell slightly, and Industrial and Office rates increased.
The NCREIF Open End Diversified Core Equity Index rose 1.88% (0.84% from income and 1.04% from appreciation). This marked a 5 bps increase over the third quarter return of 1.83%, which was the lowest for the Index since 2010. Income returns fell slightly, but appreciation bounced back from a five-year low in the third quarter.
Global real estate investment trusts (REITs), tracked by the EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index (USD), lagged behind their U.S. counterparts and dropped 5.59%. U.S. REITs, as mea-sured by the FTSE NAREIT Equity REITs Index, lost 2.89% for the quarter.
Exhibit 1: Rolling One-Year Returns
-60%
-30%
0%
30%
60%
90%
120%
U.S. REIT Style Global Real Estate StylePrivate Real Estate Database
02 0397 98 99 00 01 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Source: Callan
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6
Exhibit 3: NCREIF Transaction and Appraisal Capitalization Rates
Exhibit 2: NCREIF Capitalization Rates by Property Type
0%
3%
6%
9%
Appraisal Capitalization RatesTransaction Capitalization Rates
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 160%
3%
6%
9%
IndustrialApartment RetailOffice
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Real Estate: The Long-Term View
Real estate can provide inflation protection, diversifica-tion, and growth in the portfolio. However, certain types of investments may be volatile, illiquid, or come with high fees. Trends supporting investment in real estate include: • Moderate economic growth• An aging population that will need to work longer and
will require accommodative housing • Echo boomers with a desire for independence, individu-
alization, and an urban setting• Expanded demand for core globally• Expansion of the middle class in China, Brazil, and
India, coupled with urbanization
Risks and issues to consider include:• Changes in consumer (tenant) demand• Future increase in cost of capital• Market size and depth for emerging markets• Manager risks in Asia and Europe• Competitiveness of capital relative to other sources• Unforeseen taxes in non-U.S. markets
Institutional investors can access real estate via direct own-ership, commingled funds, open-end funds, REITs, or debt instruments. As with any investment, a careful assessment of risks, opportunities, and investment vehicles is essential.
Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) issuance for the quarter jumped 31% to $26.0 billion from the $19.8 billion in the third quarter. This also represented a 19.3% increase over the fourth quarter of 2015 ($21.8 billion).
Source: NCEIFNote: Transaction capitalization rate is equal-weighted.
Source: NCEIFNote: Capitalization rates are appraisal-based.
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7Knowledge. Experience. Integrity.
Real assets play a key role within institutional portfolios as diversifiers, sources of income, sources of manager value-add, and potential hedges against inflation (Exhibits 4 and 5). In addition to core real estate, real assets encompass invest-ments with exposure to the real economy (as opposed to the financial economy) such as timber, infrastructure, and com-modities, as well as inflation-linked strategies. Each of these sub-asset classes provides a different exposure to inflation and economic growth, leading to a range of correlations with public equity and fixed income markets (Exhibit 6).
In high or rising inflation scenarios, real assets can provide a hedge against losses from short- or intermediate-term under-performance by equities and bonds. In low-inflation environ-ments, real assets provide diversification benefits. Some, like commodities, are well-suited to play the diversification role while contributing only modestly to total portfolio return; others, such as core real estate, can both diversify risk and augment returns. Because real assets include a wide spectrum of strat-egies and approaches, we expect an equally wide distribution
Real Asset Characteristics and Data Eugene Podkaminer, CFA
of returns (and risk) over time. Their use of leverage, and the inherent illiquidity of some real asset classes, also drives the expected returns demanded by investors while increasing risk.
Investors need a thorough understanding of the risks of real assets. For instance, the hazard of investing in real estate is poorly represented by the volatility of return streams gener-ated by an annual valuation process. The actual volatility of real estate returns in 2008, 2009, and 2010 was not repre-sented in the smoothed return history available prior to 2008, suggesting it could never happen. And the artificially low cor-relation of those smoothed returns with stocks and bonds sug-gested greater diversification than real estate actually offered. Diversification works only when investors can rebalance, and they can only do so when they can sell the investment that has run up to buy the investment that has declined.
Because of all these factors, investors need to set realistic expectations for real assets given the framework of a generally low return environment across the capital markets.
Real Asset StrategyPeripheral Strategy
Inflation Protection Diversifier Growth Illiquid High Fees
High Imple-mentation
RiskInvestable
Index
Private Markets
Real Estate X X X X X
Timberland X X X X X X X
Farmland X X X X X X X
Infrastructure X X X X X X X
Energy X X X X X X X
Public Markets
REITs X X X X
Natural Resource Equities X X X X
Commodities X X X
Listed Infrastructure X X X X X
MLPs X X X X X
Exhibit 4: Real Assets—Primary Strategies and Key Characteristics
Source: Callan
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8
Exhibit 5: Callan Database and Index Returns* for Periods Ended December 31, 2016
10-Year Historical
Fourth Quarter Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 15 Years
Standard Deviation
Sharpe Ratio
Callan Real Estate Database (median) 1.87 8.34 11.89 11.89 4.56 7.57 11.49 0.35
NFI-ODCE (value wtd-net) 1.88 7.79 11.04 11.16 4.84 7.15 8.65 0.47
NCREIF Property 1.73 7.97 11.02 10.91 6.93 9.00 5.91 1.04
NCREIF Farmland 2.89 7.09 10.00 13.80 13.06 14.70 4.96 2.47
NCREIF Timberland 1.18 2.59 5.96 7.06 5.83 7.39 4.65 1.08
Callan Global Real Estate Style -5.11 3.97 7.26 10.83 2.82 10.55 22.69 0.09EPRA/NAREIT Developed -5.59 4.06 5.90 9.48 1.47 – 23.20 0.03
Alerian MLP 2.04 18.31 -5.80 2.25 8.05 10.93 21.02 0.34
DJB Global Infrastructure -5.25 12.52 3.87 8.54 6.71 – 15.48 0.38
Bloomberg Commodities 2.55 11.40 -11.38 -9.06 -6.23 -0.11 20.44 -0.34
Bloomberg Barclays TIPS -2.41 4.68 2.26 0.89 4.36 5.30 5.47 0.65
Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) 0.00 2.07 1.18 1.36 1.81 2.10 2.17 0.47
S&P 500 3.82 11.96 8.87 14.66 6.95 6.69 16.38 0.38
Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate -2.98 2.65 3.03 2.23 4.34 4.58 3.44 1.03
*Returns less than one year are not annualized.
Sources: Alerian, Bloomberg Barclays, Bloomberg, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Callan, Dow Jones, NCREIF, Standard & Poor’s, The FTSE Group
Exhibit 6: Correlation Table—10 Years Ended December 31, 2016
Callan Real Estate Database 1.00NFI-ODCE (val wtd-net) 0.93 1.00
NCREIF Property 0.95 0.99 1.00NCREIF Farmland 0.00 0.03 0.03 1.00
NCREIF Timberland 0.21 0.17 0.20 0.57 1.00Callan Global RE Style 0.17 0.13 0.17 -0.13 -0.23 1.00
EPRA/NAREIT Developed 0.17 0.13 0.18 -0.13 -0.23 1.00 1.00Alerian MLP 0.03 -0.10 -0.05 -0.10 -0.32 0.50 0.49 1.00
DJB Global Infrastructure 0.20 0.16 0.21 -0.03 -0.20 0.85 0.84 0.71 1.00Bloomberg Commodities 0.22 0.16 0.21 -0.14 -0.17 0.51 0.51 0.64 0.67 1.00
Bloomberg Barclays TIPS 0.04 -0.04 0.05 -0.21 0.03 0.15 0.14 0.23 0.29 0.38 1.00CPI-U 0.32 0.21 0.28 -0.46 -0.20 0.26 0.27 0.46 0.36 0.63 0.34 1.00 0.83
S&P 500 0.28 0.21 0.25 0.06 -0.20 0.85 0.84 0.62 0.83 0.54 -0.08 0.27 1.00 -0.34Bloomberg Barclays Agg -0.25 -0.20 -0.18 -0.11 0.12 0.05 0.05 -0.10 0.08 -0.11 0.61 -0.22 -0.29 1.00
Callan Real
Estate DB
NFI-ODCE
(val wtd-net)
NCREIF Property
NCREIF Farm
NCREIF Timber
Callan Global
RE Style
EPRA/NAREIT Devel-oped
Alerian MLP
DJB Global Infra-
structure
Bloomberg Comm
Bloomberg Barclays
TIPS
CPI-U S&P 500
Bloomberg Barclays
Agg
Sources: Alerian, Bloomberg, Bloomberg Barclays, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Callan, Dow Jones, NCREIF, Standard & Poor’s, The FTSE Group
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9Knowledge. Experience. Integrity.
Callan Periodic Table of Real Asset Investment Returns Relative to Inflation
This chart depicts annual returns (and 10-year returns in the last column) for select real asset indices ranked from best to worst. The intent is to demonstrate the strong case for diversification as well as illustrate performance relative to inflation (CPI-U).
Alerian MLP
18.31%Alerian MLP
35.85%
EPRA/NAREIT Developed27.73%
DJB Global Infrastructure
16.34%
DJB Global Infrastructure
12.52%EPRA/NAREIT
Developed19.63%
NCREIF Farmland18.58%
Alerian MLP
27.58%
EPRA/NAREIT Developed15.02%
Bloomberg Commodities
11.40%
NCREIF Farmland13.06%
Alerian MLP
76.41%
Bloomberg Commodities
16.67%
NCREIF Farmland15.16%
DJB Global Infrastructure
16.01%
NCREIF Farmland20.93%
NCREIF Farmland12.64%
NCREIF Property7.97%
Alerian MLP
8.05%EPRA/NAREIT
Developed37.13%
NFI-ODCE (value wtd-net)
15.26%
NFI-ODCE (value wtd-net)
14.96%
NCREIF Property10.54%
DJB Global Infrastructure
15.89%
NCREIF Property11.82%
NFI-ODCE (value wtd-net)
7.79%
NCREIF Property6.93%
DJB Global Infrastructure
34.24%
NCREIF Property13.11%
NCREIF Property14.26%
NFI-ODCE (value wtd-net)
9.79%
NFI-ODCE (value wtd-net)
12.90%
NFI-ODCE (value wtd-net)
11.46%
NFI-ODCE (value wtd-net)
13.95%
NCREIF Farmland7.09%
DJB Global Infrastructure
6.71%Bloomberg
Commodities18.72%
DJB Global Infrastructure
12.46%
Alerian MLP
13.88%
NCREIF Timberland
7.76%
NCREIF Property10.98%
NCREIF Timberland10.48%
NCREIF Property
13.33%B
Bloomberg Barclays TIPS
4.68%
NCREIF Timberland
5.83%NCREIF Farmland15.84%
Bloomberg Barclays TIPS
11.41%
NCREIF Farmland8.79%
DJB Global Infrastructure
13.75%
Bloomberg Barclays TIPS
6.98%
NCREIF Timberland
9.68%
Alerian MLP
4.80%
NCREIF Farmland10.35%
EPRA/NAREIT Developed
4.06%
NFI-ODCE (value wtd-net)
4.84%NCREIF
Timberland9.52%
NCREIF Farmland6.33%
Bloomberg Barclays TIPS
6.31%
Bloomberg Barclays TIPS
13.56%
Alerian MLP
4.80%
EPRA/NAREIT Developed
3.67%
Bloomberg Barclays TIPS
3.64%
NCREIF Timberland
4.97%
NCREIF Timberland
2.59%
Bloomberg Barclays TIPS
4.36%2008 CPI
0.09%2009 CPI
2.72%2010 CPI
1.50%2011 CPI
2.96%2012 CPI
1.74%2013 CPI
1.50%2014 CPI
0.76%2015 CPI
0.73%2016 CPI
2.07%10 Years 2016
CPI 1.81%Bloomberg
Barclays TIPS-2.35%
NCREIF Timberland
-4.76%
NCREIF Timberland
-0.16%
NCREIF Timberland
1.58%
Bloomberg Commodities
-1.14%
Bloomberg Barclays TIPS
-8.61%
Bloomberg Commodities
-17.04%
EPRA/NAREIT Developed-0.79%
EPRA/NAREIT Developed
1.47%NCREIF Property-6.46%
NCREIF Property-16.86%
EPRA/NAREIT Developed -6.46%
Bloomberg Commodities
-9.58%
Bloomberg Barclays TIPS
-1.44%
Bloomberg Commodities
-6.23%NFI-ODCE
(value wtd-net)-10.70%
NFI-ODCE (value wtd-net)
-30.40%
Bloomberg Commodities
-13.37%
DJB Global Infrastructure
-14.40%DJB Global
Infrastructure-36.36%
Bloomberg Commodities
-24.70%Bloomberg
Commodities-36.61%
Alerian MLP
-32.59%Alerian MLP
-36.92%EPRA/NAREIT
Developed -48.21%
Sources: Alerian, Bloomberg, Bloomberg Barclays, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Dow Jones, NCREIF, The FTSE Group
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10
Barbara Bernard
Real Assets Consulting
Real estate debt, office and retail sectors, U.S. opportunistic strategies
Jay Kloepfer
Capital Markets Research
Strategic investment planning, asset allocation
Jan Mende
Real Assets Consulting
Infrastructure, Asian real estate, U.S. value-added strategies
Lauren Sertich
Real Assets Consulting
Real estate, real estate securities, timber
Avery Robinson, CAIA
Real Assets Consulting
Real estate, emerging managers, minority-, women-, and disabled-owned firms
Sally Haskins
Real Assets Consulting
Real estate, Asia
Jonathan Gould, CAIA
Real Assets Consulting
Real estate, infrastructure
Michael Bise
Private Equity Research
Private energy, minerals/mining
Eugene Podkaminer, CFA
Capital Markets Research
Strategic investment planning, asset allocation
Brett Cornwell, CFA
Global Manager Research
Master limited partnerships, commodities, TIPS
Gary Robertson
Manager, Private Equity Research
Private energy, minerals/mining
Kevin Nagy, CAIA
Real Assets Consulting
Real estate, real estate securities, Latin America
Real Assets Research Team
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11Knowledge. Experience. Integrity.
Certain information herein has been compiled by Callan and is based on information provided by a variety of sources believed to be reliable for which Callan has not necessarily verified the accuracy or completeness of or updated. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as legal or tax advice on any matter. Any investment decision you make on the basis of this report is your sole responsibility. You should consult with legal and tax advisers before applying any of this information to your particular situation. Reference in this report to any product, service or entity should not be construed as a recommendation, approval, affiliation or endorsement of such product, service or entity by Callan. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This report may consist of statements of opinion, which are made as of the date they are expressed and are not statements of fact. The Callan Institute (the “Institute”) is, and will be, the sole owner and copyright holder of all material prepared or developed by the Institute. No party has the right to reproduce, revise, resell, disseminate externally, disseminate to subsidiaries or parents, or post on internal web sites any part of any material prepared or developed by the Institute, without the Institute’s permission. Institute clients only have the right to utilize such material internally in their business.
The Real Assets Reporter newsletter offers Callan’s data and insights on real estate and other real asset investment topics. Callan’s real assets consulting practice offers extensive manager research; a dedicated and experienced team; and a solutions-focused, customized approach. For real assets inquiries, please contact your Callan consultant or the appropriate member of the research team at 415.974.5060.
Editor – Stephen R. TrousdaleDesigner – Jacki Hoagland
If you have any questions or comments, please email [email protected].
About CallanCallan was founded as an employee-owned investment consulting firm in 1973. Ever since, we have empowered institutional clients with creative, customized investment solutions that are backed by propri-etary research, exclusive data, and ongoing education. Today, Callan advises on more than $2 trillion in total fund sponsor assets, which makes it among the largest independently owned investment consulting firms in the U.S. Callan uses a client-focused consulting model to serve pension and defined contribution plan sponsors, endowments, foundations, independent investment advisors, investment managers, and other asset owners. Callan has five offices throughout the U.S. For more information, please visit www.callan.com.
About the Callan InstituteThe Callan Institute, established in 1980, is a source of continuing education for those in the insti-tutional investment community. The Institute conducts conferences and workshops and provides published research, surveys and newsletters. The Institute strives to present the most timely and relevant research and education available so our clients and our associates stay abreast of impor-tant trends in the investments industry.
© 2017 Callan Associates Inc.
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