at a glance q3 2019 industrial & logistics market* review ...€¦ · market balance to be...

16
1 RESEARCH 1 Real Estate for a changing world The industrial and logistics market in Poland is one of the fastest developing real estate sectors in Europe. Only over the last five years has the total stock of existing industrial and logistics space doubled. Moreover, the high demand and the enormous amount of space under construction suggest that the trend will continue. Nevertheless, at the beginning of the year, the vacancy rate rose slightly and growing construction costs still impact on the rental levels. Vacancy rate, Q3 2019 *Stock was revised at the beginning of 2019 Headline rent range (sqm/month) Under construction At a glance Q3 2019 2.50 – 5.25 EUR 1,818,100 m 2 INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET* REVIEW, POLAND VACANCY RATE Compared to the situation at the end of 2018, the overall vacancy rate increased by 1.6 p.p. reaching the highest level over the last 5 years - 6.7%. However, in the context of the record growth in new supply in previous years, the share of available space still remains at a relatively low level. The shortage of free space also results from the popularity of BTS schemes and the high volume of pre-let agreements. The schemes under construction are currently 46% leased on average. However, warehouses are often almost fully let upon completion. Nevertheless, the level of pre-let agreements is significantly lower than in previous years. UNDER CONSTRUCTION The impressive volume of new supply delivered over the last two and half years did not deter developers from starting further pro- jects. At the end of September, the total stock under construction amounted to 2.2m sqm. The largest portion of the constructed stock will be delivered to (562,000 sqm), Warsaw II (400,800 sqm), Lower Silesia (329,100 sqm) and Upper Silesia (308,200 sqm). All primary clusters compri- se almost 80% of the total space under construction. The largest schemes that are currently under construction are: A2 Warsaw Park (103,700 sqm), Panattoni Park Wrocław XI (97,500 sqm) and Hillwood Łódź Górna (73,000 sqm). RENTS As a result of increasing labour and constructions costs coupled with high level of demand, the rental level in the industrial sector has been exhibiting an upward trend since 2018. It especially applied to the he- adline rent. At the same time, strong competition forces landlords to fight for tenants. Generally, landlords aim to keep the headline rates at a high level. In order to achieve this, they become even more willing to offer attractive incentives, reducing effective costs. The high volume of new supply and the large pipeline volume prevent the rapid growth of rental costs to some extent. This will allow the market balance to be maintained in the short term. Modern industrial & logistics stock 17.6mln m 2 Total stock delivered, Q1-Q3 2019 1,973,400 m 2 SUPPLY In 2017 and 2018, the total leasable space delivered to the market amounted to 2.4m sqm and 2.2m sqm respectively. The rapid pace of growth was also noted over the first nine months of 2019. Between January and September the total existing stock in Poland increased by almost 2m sqm and reached 17.6m sqm at the end of September. It is the highest ever volume of new supply recorded from January to September. The shortage of available sites in the best locations motivates deve- lopers to seek alternatives. Good access to high speed roads remains a key factor. The best examples of such schemes are the recently fi- nished Hillwood Zalando in Olsztynek and Panattoni S5 North Gate Wrocław and a number of schemes located in the west of Poland along the S3 route. NEW 6.7%

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Page 1: At a glance Q3 2019 INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET* REVIEW ...€¦ · market balance to be maintained in the short term. Modern industrial & logistics stock 17.6mln m2 Total stock

1

R E S E A R C H

1

Real Estatefor a changing

world

Real Estatefor a changing

world

The industrial and logistics market in Poland is one of the fastest developing real estate sectors in Europe. Only over the last five years has the total stock of existing industrial and logistics space doubled. Moreover, the high demand and the enormous amount of space under construction suggest that the trend will continue. Nevertheless, at the beginning of the year, the vacancy rate rose slightly and growing construction costs still impact on the rental levels.

Vacancy rate, Q3 2019

*Stock was revised at the beginning of 2019

Headline rent range (sqm/month)

Under construction

At a glance Q3 2019

2.50 – 5.25 EUR

1,818,100 m2

INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET* REVIEW, POLAND

VACANCY RATECompared to the situation at the end of 2018, the overall vacancy rate increased by 1.6 p.p. reaching the highest level over the last 5 years - 6.7%. However, in the context of the record growth in new supply in previous years, the share of available space still remains at a relatively low level. The shortage of free space also results from the popularity of BTS schemes and the high volume of pre-let agreements. The schemes under construction are currently 46% leased on average. However, warehouses are often almost fully let upon completion. Nevertheless, the level of pre-let agreements is significantly lower than in previous years.

UNDER CONSTRUCTIONThe impressive volume of new supply delivered over the last two and half years did not deter developers from starting further pro-jects. At the end of September, the total stock under construction amounted to 2.2m sqm.

The largest portion of the constructed stock will be delivered to (562,000 sqm), Warsaw II (400,800 sqm), Lower Silesia (329,100 sqm) and Upper Silesia (308,200 sqm). All primary clusters compri-se almost 80% of the total space under construction.

The largest schemes that are currently under construction are: A2 Warsaw Park (103,700 sqm), Panattoni Park Wrocław XI (97,500 sqm) and Hillwood Łódź Górna (73,000 sqm).

RENTSAs a result of increasing labour and constructions costs coupled with high level of demand, the rental level in the industrial sector has been exhibiting an upward trend since 2018. It especially applied to the he-adline rent. At the same time, strong competition forces landlords to fight for tenants. Generally, landlords aim to keep the headline rates at a high level. In order to achieve this, they become even more willing to offer attractive incentives, reducing effective costs.

The high volume of new supply and the large pipeline volume prevent the rapid growth of rental costs to some extent. This will allow the market balance to be maintained in the short term.

Modern industrial & logistics stock

17.6mln m2

Total stock delivered, Q1-Q3 2019

1,973,400 m2

SUPPLYIn 2017 and 2018, the total leasable space delivered to the market amounted to 2.4m sqm and 2.2m sqm respectively. The rapid pace of growth was also noted over the first nine months of 2019. Between January and September the total existing stock in Poland increased by almost 2m sqm and reached 17.6m sqm at the end of September. It is the highest ever volume of new supply recorded from January to September.

The shortage of available sites in the best locations motivates deve-lopers to seek alternatives. Good access to high speed roads remains a key factor. The best examples of such schemes are the recently fi-nished Hillwood Zalando in Olsztynek and Panattoni S5 North Gate Wrocław and a number of schemes located in the west of Poland along the S3 route.

NEW

6.7%

Page 2: At a glance Q3 2019 INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET* REVIEW ...€¦ · market balance to be maintained in the short term. Modern industrial & logistics stock 17.6mln m2 Total stock

2

AT A GLANCE – INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET REVIEW, POLAND – Q3 2019

1.00 EUR 2.00 EUR 3.00 EUR 4.00 EUR 5.00 EUR 6.00 EUR

Toruń/Bydgoszcz

Szczecin

West

East

Tricity Region

Kraków Region

Central Poland

Lower Silesia

Poznań Region

Upper Silesia

Warsaw II

Warsaw I

13.2%

4.1%6.7%

8.4%4.7%

8.8%

10.1%2.3%

8.6%4.4%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 14%12%

0%4.2%Toruń/Bydgoszcz

Szczecin

West

EastTricity Region

Kraków Region

Central Poland

Lower SilesiaPoznań Region

Upper SilesiaWarsaw IIWarsaw I

0 100,000 500,000200,000 300,000 400,000

Szczecin

Tricity Region

Central Poland

Lower Silesia

Toruń/Bydgoszcz

Poznań Region

Upper Silesia

Warsaw II

EastWest

Warsaw IKraków Region

other 10%

Upper Silesia 15%

Tricity 4%

Poznań Region 11%

Warsaw I 5%

Lower Silesia 13%

Central Poland 12%

Warsaw II 30%

Warsaw I 4.4%

Warsaw II 19.2%

Upper Silesia 17.4%

Central Poland 16.3%

Poznań Region 11.5%

Lower Silesia 10.6%

Szczecin 4.1%

Tricity Region 3.8%

East 2.8%

Toruń/Bydgoszcz 1.9%West 3.0%

Kraków Region 3.3%

other 1.9%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Q3201920182017201620152014201320122011

m²18,000,000

16,000,000

new supply stock vacancy rate

14,000,000

12,000,000

10,000,000

8,000,000

6,000,000

Vacancy rate, modern industrial and logistics stock Market share by hub, Q3 2019

Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate

Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate

Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate

Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate

Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate

Under construction industrial and logistics space, Q3 2019 (sqm) Vacancy rate by hub, Q3 2019

Gross take-up by hub, Q1-Q3 2019Rental ranges by hub, € per sqm/month, Q3 2019

Page 3: At a glance Q3 2019 INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET* REVIEW ...€¦ · market balance to be maintained in the short term. Modern industrial & logistics stock 17.6mln m2 Total stock

3

SZCZECIN

BYDGOSZCZ

GORZÓW WLKP.

WROCŁAW

OPOLE

KATOWICE

KIELCE

KRAKÓWRZESZÓW

LUBLIN

ŁÓDŹ

WARSZAWA

BIAŁYSTOK

POZNAŃ

ZIELONAGÓRA

PIOTRKÓW TRYB.

GDAŃSK

OLSZTYN

TORUŃ

3

46

5

1 3

3

4

5

2

2

1

3

AT A GLANCE – INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET REVIEW, POLAND – Q3 2019

BNP Paribas Real Estate has divided the industrial & logistics market into five primary hubs (over 1 million sqm) and six secondary markets as shown on the map.

MAP OF INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS HUBS & TRANSPORTATION NETWORK

Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate

PRIMARY HUBS:1. Warsaw I & Warsaw II2. Upper Silesia3. Central Poland4. Poznań5. Lower Silesia

SECONDARY HUBS:1. Kraków2. Tricity3. East4. Bydgoszcz / Toruń5. Szczecin6. West

MAJOR NATIONAL ROADS

HIGHWAYS:EXISTINGUNDER CONSTRUCTION

PLANNED

EXPRESSWAYS:EXISTINGUNDER CONSTRUCTION

PLANNED

Page 4: At a glance Q3 2019 INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET* REVIEW ...€¦ · market balance to be maintained in the short term. Modern industrial & logistics stock 17.6mln m2 Total stock

4

Narew

Wisła

Utrata

Jezi

orka

Pomiechówek

Czosnów

Wieliszew

Nieporęt

Jabłonna

Izabelin C

Stare Babice

Opacz

Janki

NadarzynLesznowola

ŁOMIANKI

LEGIONOWO

NOWY DWÓRMAZOWIECKI

OTWOCK

PRUSZKÓW

MARKI

KOBYŁKA

WOŁOMIN

ZIELONKA

ZĄBKI

JÓZEFÓW

KARCZEW

KONSTANCIN--JEZIORNA

PIASECZNO

PIASTÓW

BRWINÓW

PODKOWA LEŚNA

OŻARÓW MAZOWIECKI

WARSZAWA

E77

E77

E30

E30

E67

E67

62

61

79

7

8

2

7

A2

S8

S8

S2

95

24

4

36

16

8

253

32

29

22

18

2735

267 311134

1. 7R City Flex Airport I2. Airport House3. Bokserska Distribution Center4. City Logistics Warsaw I5. City Logistics Warsaw II6. City Logistics Warsaw Airport7. City Point8. Diamond Business Park Ursus9. Distribution Park Żerań10. Gate One11. Hillwood Warsaw Targówek12. Ideal City Park13. Ideal Distribution Centre14. Ideal Idea III15. Jutrzenka Park16. Kolmet17. Krakowska Distribution Park18. Logicor Annopol19. Logicor Okęcie20. Logicor Warszawa 21. Manhattan Business & Distribution

Center22. Metropol Park Jagiellońska23. Modularna Distribution Centre24. Norblin Industrial Park25. Platan Park26. Prologis Park Warsaw II27. Prologis Park Warsaw – Żerań28. Segro Business Park Okęcie29. Segro Business Park Warsaw, Żerań 30. Space Distribution Center31. U4 Park32. Ursus Logistic Center33. Warsaw Distribution Center34. Warsaw East Distribution Center35. Wenecka36. Żoliborskie Centrum Biurowo-

Magazynowe

LotniskoWarszawa Okęcie

im. Fryderyka Chopina

W-WARAKÓW

AL. K

RAKO

WSK

A

AL. JE

ROZO

LIMSK

IEŁopuszańska

Kleszczowa

Ryżo

wa

SzyszkowaPOŁUDNIOWA

OBWODNICA WARSZAWY (S2)

20

2314

15

102

1

19176 33

21

13

28 30

12

0 2 4 6 8 km

AT A GLANCE – INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET REVIEW, POLAND – Q3 2019

• Limited availability and the high price of land significantly re-duce cluster development and increase rental costs for the top assets.

• Warsaw I records the highest rents for warehouse space in Po-land.

• In Warsaw, companies are generally more interested in Small Business Units (SBU) than on the other markets.

• At the end of Q3 2019, the vacancy rate was 13.2%, which was the highest result in Poland.

WARSAW I

3.75–5.25 EUR

13.2%

WARSAW I

771,900 m2

24,400 m2

PRIMARY HUBS1

1. Supply over 1m sqm.

EXISTING & UNDER CONSTRUCTION

KEY INDICATORS & FUTURE TRENDS* ( )

*for the next 6 months

Vacancy rate

Under construction

Total existing stock

Headline rent range(per sqm/mth)

Page 5: At a glance Q3 2019 INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET* REVIEW ...€¦ · market balance to be maintained in the short term. Modern industrial & logistics stock 17.6mln m2 Total stock

5

1. 7R Park West2. A2 Warsaw Park3. Altmaster Grzędy / Wola Mrokowska4. Altmaster Pęcice 5. Altmaster Piaseczno6. Błonie Business Park 7. Distribution Park Grodzisk Maz. 8. Goodman Warsaw I LC (Grodzisk Maz.)9. Hillwood Błonie10. Hillwood Błonie II11. Hillwood Janki I, II12. Hillwood Kalwaria13. Hillwood Marki14. Hillwood Pruszków15. Lexar Distribution Park16. Logicor Błonie17. Logicor Łazy18. Logicor Piaseczno 19. Logicor Święcice 20. Logicor Święcice II21. Logicor Teresin 22. MLP Pruszków I23. MLP Pruszków II 24. MLP Teresin25. Ożarów I Logistics Centre26. Ożarów II Logistics Centre27. P3 Błonie 28. P3 Mszczonów29. Panattoni Park Garwolin30. Panattoni Park Grodzisk III31. Panattoni Park Janki I, II, III32. Panattoni Park Konotopa I, II33. Panattoni Park Pruszków II34. Panattoni Park Pruszków III35. Panattoni Park Pruszków IV36. Panattoni Park Warsaw North (Radzymin)37. Panattoni Park Warsaw South38. Panattoni Park West VI39. Piaseczno Business Park 40. Point of View Góra Kalwaria41. Point of View Kawęczyn 42. Point of View Piaseczno 43. Prologis Park Błonie44. Prologis Park Błonie II (Exeter)45. Prologis Park Janki46. Prologis Park Nadarzyn (Exeter)47. Prologis Park Sochaczew (Ares) 48. Prologis Park Teresin 49. Pruszkowskie Centrum Dystrybucyjne50. Raszyn Business Park51. Reguły Logistic Park 52. Segro Business Park Warsaw, Ożarów53. Segro Logistics Park Warsaw, Nadarzyn 54. Segro Logistics Park Warsaw, Pruszków 55. Techniczna Industrial Park56. Tristar Grodzisk57. WAN Pruszków58. West Park Ożarów59. West Park Pruszków

1. Diamond Business Park Raszyn 2. DL Invest Słomczyn Grójec3. Goodman Warsaw II LC (Janki)4. Goodman Warsaw III LC (Kobyłka)5. Waimea Logistic Park Teresin

Narew

Bug

Bzura

Wkra

Utrata

Pisia

Raw

ka

Wisła

Utrata

Pilic

a

Jezi

orka

J. Zegrzyńskie

Dzierzążnia

Naruszewo

Joniec

NoweMiasto

Załuski

Pomiechówek

Zakroczym

Leoncin

Czerwińsknad Wisłą

Wyszogród

Brochów

Kampinos

Teresin

Baranów

Jaktorów

Puszcza Mariańska

NowyKawęczyn

Regnów

Cielądz Sadkowice

Błędów

Pniewy

Goszczyn

Mogielnica

BelskDuży

Promna

JasieniecBiałaRawska

Chynów

Prażmów

Tarczyn

ŻabiaWola

Lesznowola

Wiązowna

Sulejówek

Józefów

Karczew

Konstancin--Jeziorna

Góra Kalwaria

Nadarzyn

Sobienie--Jeziory

Grabównad Pilicą

Kowiesy

Radziejowice

Wiskitki

Leszno

Błonie

Milanówek

PodkowaLeśna

Brwinów

Pruszków

OżarówMazowiecki

Raszyn

Stare Babice

Izabelin C

Młodzieszyn

Winnica

NasielskPłońsk

PokrzywnicaZatory

Somianka

Dąbrówka

Klembów

KobyłkaMarki

Nieporęt

Radzymin

ZielonkaZąbki

Serock

Wieliszew

JabłonnaCzosnów

Świercze

WARSZAWASOCHACZEW

ŁOMIANKI

NOWY DWÓRMAZOWIECKI

LEGIONOWO

WOŁOMIN

OTWOCK

Warka

GRÓJEC

PIASECZNO

Rawa Mazowiecka

MSZCZONÓW

ŻYRARDÓW

GRODZISKMAZOWIECKI

E77

E30

E67 E77

E77

E30

50

62

92

79

50

79

50

5070

62

62

61

85

7

2

7

A2

S8

S8

S8

S7

20

131

25

40

57

16

13

3435 14

21

5638

308

2

36

3

2

1

4

539

41

28

4344

4615

47 48

3350

51

17

3753

6

102223

329

29

19245

4

59

7

12

27

18

5258

42

54

55

49

26

311 45

0 5 10 15 20 km

AT A GLANCE – INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET REVIEW, POLAND – Q3 2019

WARSAW II

2.50–3.60 EUR

4.1%3,376,600 m2

400,800 m2

WARSAW II

PLANNED

• Warsaw II is the largest warehouse market in Poland and embraces over a fifth of the country’s total stock.

• Over the last 9 months, the total stock grew by 168,600 sqm. Another 400,800 sqm remains under construction.

• The largest scheme delivered by developers by the end of September was Panattoni Park Warsaw South (38,000 sqm).

• The rapid increase in new supply and the dominance of largescale projects keep rental rates stable at one of the lowest levels in the country.

• New transport infrastructure in the eastern (S8, A2) and southern (S8, S7, S17) parts of the hub will result in new warehouse developments in these directions emerging over the next few years.

EXISTING & UNDER CONSTRUCTION

Vacancy rate

Under construction

Total existing stock

Headline rent range(per sqm/mth)

*for the next 6 months

KEY INDICATORS & FUTURE TRENDS* ( )

Page 6: At a glance Q3 2019 INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET* REVIEW ...€¦ · market balance to be maintained in the short term. Modern industrial & logistics stock 17.6mln m2 Total stock

6

1. 7R Park Gorzyce2. Goodman Lędziny Logistics Centre3. Panattoni Park Tychy4. Panattoni Park Częstochowa5. Prologis Park Ujazd

1. 7R Beskid Park (Czechowice-Dziedzice)2. 7R Siemianowice Śląskie3. 7R Sosnowiec City Flex4. Alliance Silesia Logistics Center5. Bielsko-Biała Logistics Centre6. Centrum Logistyczne Milowice7. Diamond Business Park Gliwice8. DL Invest Park Dąbrowa Górnicza9. DL Invest Park Psary/Czeladź 10. Goodman Gliwice Logistics Centre11. Goodman Sosnowiec Logistics Centre12. Górnośląski Park Przemysłowy13. Hillwood Czętochowa14. Hillwood Ruda Śląska15. Hillwood Sosnowiec Zagłębie16. Logicor Będzin17. Logicor Czeladź18. Logicor Częstochowa19. Logicor Gliwice I20. Logicor Gliwice II21. Logicor Mysłowice22. Logicor Sosnowiec23. Logistic Park Bieruń24. Logistic Park Tychy25. MLP Czeladź26. MLP Gliwice27. Panattoni Park Bielsko-Biała II28. Panattoni Park Bielsko-Biała III29. Panattoni Park Gliwice II30. Panattoni Park Gliwice III31. Panattoni Park Ruda32. Panattoni Park Sosnowiec I, II33. Panattoni Park Zabrze34. Panattoni Park Żory35. Prologis Park Będzin II (Exeter)36. Prologis Park Chorzów37. Prologis Park Dąbrowa38. Prologis Park Ruda Śląska39. Segro Business Park Gliwice I, II, III40. Segro Industrial Park Tychy41. Segro Industrial Park Tychy II42. Segro Logistics Park Gliwice43. Śląskie Centrum Logistyczne44. Terminal Logistyczny Promont Tychy45. Tristar Czeladź

Warta

J. Porajskie

M

ała Panew

Przemsza

Soła

Wisła

Brynica

Cza

rna

Pr

zem

sza

J. Goczałkowickie

Olza

Pszczynka

Ruda

J. Rybnickie

Kłodnica

DobrodzieńCiasna

Pawonków

Zawadzkie

Lubliniec

Kochanowice

Koszęcin

Blachownia

Herby Konopiska

BoronówStarcza

Olsztyn

Podczesna

KamienicaPolska

Koziegłowy

Woźniki

Kalety

KrupskiMłyn

Wielowieś

Tworóg

Miasteczko Śl.

SiewierzMierzącice

Poręba

OżarowiceŚwierklaniec

RadzinkówZbrosławicePyskowice

Toszek

Jemielnica

StrzelceOpolskie

Warmątowice

Ujazd

Rudziniec

KuźniaRaciborska

Pilchowice

Sośnicowice

Nędza

Lyski Jejkowice

Gaszowice

RydułtowyPszów

RadlinMarklowice

Gorzyce Mszana

Godów

Zebrzydowice

DębowiecHażlach

SkoczówJaworze

Kozy

Bestwina

Goczałkowice--Zdrój

Miedźna Brzeszcze

BojszowyKobiór

Suszec

Pawłowice

Orzesze

Ormontowice

Gierałtowice

WyryŁaziska G.

Lędziny

Bieruń

Chełm Śl.

Chełmek

Libiąż

Imielin

PsaryBobrowniki

PIEKARY ŚL.

TARNOWSKIEGÓRY

DĄBROWA G.BYTOM

GLIWICE

RYBNIK TYCHY

BIELSKO--BIAŁA

ZABRZE RUDA ŚL.

ŚWIĘTOCHŁOWICE

CHORZÓW

SOSNOWIEC

JAWORZNOMYSŁOWICE

JASTRZĘBIE--ZDRÓJ

Wojkowice

PolankaWielka

Przeciszów

Wilamowice Wieprz

Osiek

Andrychów

Kęty

Jasienica

StrumieńChybie

Bohumín

Petřvald

HAVÍŘOV

KARVINÁ

ORLOVÁ

Jankowice

ŻarkiKolonowskie

MYSZKÓW

KNURÓW

CZERWIONKA--LESZCZYNY

ŻORY

PSZCZYNA

OŚWIĘCIMWODZISŁAWŚLĄSKI

CZECHOWICE--DZIECICE

KATOWICE

CZĘSTOCHOWA

E75

E40

E40

E40E75

E40E75

E462

E462

E462

46

11

9478

78

86

78

88

94

94

44

86

81

44

152

78

67

81

475

40

40

88

1

46

46

S86

S1

S1

S1

S1

S1

S69

A1

A1

A1

A4

A4

A1

A1

15

26

41

6

8

9

14

2

4

33

34

1

5

3

392

4

42

3

17

1813

22354525

1236

38

31

27

29

19

232440

5

1

3011

43

44

37

21

71016

32

28

20

0 5 10 15 20 km

AT A GLANCE – INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET REVIEW, POLAND – Q3 2019

EXISTING & UNDER CONSTRUCTION

Vacancy rate

Under construction

Total existing stock

Headline rent range(per sqm/mth)

*for the next 6 months

KEY INDICATORS & FUTURE TRENDS* ( )

UPPER SILESIA

PLANNED

2.70–3.50 EUR

6.7%3,069,000 m2

308,200 m2

• Upper Silesia as one of the most populated and industrialised regions in Poland remains a key industrial and logistics market.

• In Q3 2019 alone, warehouse space increased by 376,300 sqm mainly following the delivery of massive scheme Panattoni BTS Amazon Gliwice which delivered 210,000 sqm of space.

• The pipeline volume reached the third highest level among all hubs - 308,200 sqm. The biggest schemes currently under con-struction are Prologis Park Ruda Śląska, Panattoni Park Sos-nowiec II and Panattoni Park Żory.

• The vacancy rate rose to 6.7%. It means an increase by 0.9 p.p. compared to the end of 2018.

• The range of rental rates in Upper Silesia is similar to other major warehouse clusters.

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7

J. Sulejowskie

Wolbórk

a

Pilica

Raw

ka

Skierniew

ka

Rawka

Bzura

Mro

ga

Bzura

Mos

zcze

nic a

Bzura

Ner

Grabia

Widawka

Luciąża

Pilica

Czarna

Parzęczew

Góra św. Małgorzaty

Bielawy

ZdunyChąśno Nowa

Sucha

NieborówBolimów

Godzianów

Słupia

Żelechlinek

Czerniewice

Inowłódz

SławnoMniszków

Będków

RokicinyBrójce

Grabica

DrużbiceZelów

ŁękiSzlacheckie Ręczno

Aleksandrów

Paradyż

Budziszewice

Nowy Kawęczyn

Łyszkowice

MakówDmosin

Ozorków Głowno

ŁOWICZ

SKIERNIEWICE

Łęczyca

ZGIERZ

Piątek

Lutomiersk

Dobroń

Ksawerów

Andrespol

Rogów

LipceReymontowskie

Jeżów

Głuchów

Dłutów

Kluki

Kleszczów

Sulmierzyce

Gorzkowice

Rozprza

WolaKrzysztoporska

Białaczów

Żarnów

Rzeczyca

Lubochnia

UjazdCzarnocin

Moszczenica

Domaniewice

Witonia

Brzeziny

KoluszkiKonstantynówŁódzki

AleksandrówŁódzki

PABIANICE

BEŁCHATÓWPIOTRKÓWTRYBUNALSKI

TOMASZÓWMAZOWIECKI

Stryków

Rzgów

Tuszyn

Kamieńsk

Sulejów

Wolbórz

Opoczno

RAWAMAZOWIECKA

ŁÓDŹ

E75E30

E30

91

14

92

5092

70

70

72

72 72

71

71

71

12

9174

12

48

1

E75

E67

S8

S14

A1

A1

A1

A2

A2

72

26

10

12

14

21

59

13

6

5

4

1715

24

22

25

6

20

2 2811

4

27

8

1

3

2

1

7

29

3 23

19

1618

0 5 10 15 20 km

1. 7R City Flex Łódź2. 7R Park Łódź West3. Central European Logistics Hub4. City Logistics Łódź I5. Diamond Business Park Stryków 6. Goodman Łódź I Logistics

Centre7. Hillwood Kutno8. Hillwood Łódź Górna9. Hillwood Stryków 10. Logicor Łódź11. Logicor Łódź II12. Logicor Łódź III 13. Logicor Stryków14. Logis 15. Logistic City – Piotrków

Distribution Centre 16. Łódź Business Park 17. P3 Piotrków 18. Panattoni Park Business Center

Łódź 19. Panattoni Park Business Center

Łódź II, III, IV20. Panattoni Park Konstantynów

Łódzki21. Panattoni Park Łódź East I, II22. Panattoni Park Stryków II, III23. Prologis Park Łódź24. Prologis Park Piotrków I 25. Prologis Park Piotrków II

(Exeter)26. Prologis Park Stryków 27. Segro Business Park Łódź 28. Segro Logistics Park Łódź29. Segro Logistics Park Stryków

1. Goodman Łódź II Logistics Centre

2. Hillwood Łowicz Południe3. Hillwood Łódź (Lućmierz)4. MLP Stryków5. MountPark Stryków6. Panattoni Park Łódź West

0 5 10 15 20 km

AT A GLANCE – INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET REVIEW, POLAND – Q3 2019

EXISTING & UNDER CONSTRUCTION

Vacancy rate

Under construction

Total existing stock

Headline rent range(per sqm/mth)

*for the next 6 months

KEY INDICATORS & FUTURE TRENDS* ( )

CENTRAL POLAND

PLANNED

2.60–3.60 EUR

8.8%2,878,200 m2

239,200 m2

• The blend of central location, well developed transport infra-structure and relatively good access to a labour force made the cluster the fastest growing hub in 2018 and 2019.

• At the end of Q3 2019, in Central Poland was the third largest industrial market Poland (after Warsaw II and Upper Silesia) in terms of total existing stock.

• Over the last nine months the market grew by 398,500 sqm, which means that total stock has grown around 14% over that period. The largest warehouses delivered to the market were: another stage of P3 Piotrków (63,600 sqm), Panattoni BTS Leroy Merlin (62,000 sqm) and Panattoni BTS Castorama (51,700 sqm).

• As a result of significant volume of delivered space, the vacancy rate has grown rapidly. At the end of September it reached 8.8%, which means an increase by 3.7 p.p. compared to the end of 2018.

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8

1. 7R Park Poznań East2. Centrum Magazynowe Bugaj3. Clip – Centrum Logistyczno Inwestycyjne

Poznań4. Doxler5. Goodman Poznań II Logistics Centre6. Goodman Poznań III Logistics Centre7. Goodman Poznań Airport Logistics

Centre8. IL-D Niepruszewo9. Logicor Poznań I10. Logicor Poznań II11. Logicor Poznań III12. Logicor Poznań IV13. Logit14. MLP Poznań15. Nickel Technology Park Poznań16. P3 Poznań17. Panattoni Park Konin18. Panattoni Park Poznań III19. Panattoni Park Poznań IV20. Panattoni Park Poznań V21. Panattoni Park Poznań VI22. Panattoni Park Poznań VII23. Panattoni Park Poznań VIII24. Panattoni Park Poznań IX25. Panattoni Park Września26. Park Przemysłowy Luboń27. Prologis Park Poznań I28. Prologis Park Poznań II29. Prologis Park Poznań III30. Segro Logistics Park Poznań, Gądki31. Segro Logistics Park Poznań, Komorniki32. Tristar Poznań Airport

1. MLP Poznań West2. Segro Logistics Park Poznań,

Gołuski3. Waimea Logistic Park Tarnowo

Podgórne

Warta

Mogilnica

War

ta

Lubasz

Połajewo

Wronki Obrzycko

OstrorógSzmotuły

Oborniki

Rokietnica

Kaźmierz

Duszniki

Buk

Opalenica

Granowo

GrodziskWielkopolski

Kamieniec

Śmigiel

LipnoOsieczna

Krzywiń

DolskJaraczewo

KsiążWielkopolski

Brodnica

Czempiń

Mosina

StęszewPuszczykowo

Kleszczewo

Dominowo

Nekla

Czerniejewo

Pobiedziska

MurowanaGoślina

Łubowo

Kiszkowo

Kłecko

Sroki

Mieścisko

WapnoBudzyń

Rogoźno

Kostrzyn

Czerwonak

SuchyLas

ŚrodaWielkopolska

Miłosław

Zaniemyśl

Kórnik

Komorniki

Krzykosy NoweMiaston. WartąKościan

Dopiewo

TarnowoPodgórne

Ryczywół

POZNAŃ

WĄGROWIEC

SWARZĘDZ

ŚREM

JAROCIN

E30

E30

E261

E261

E261

11

11

92

92

11

12

11

15

15

32 5

5

S5

S11A2

A2

S5

7

29

6

21

19

2

13

1116

9

27

32

23

30

28

25

20

4

10

128

26

15

31

1317

22

21

324

14

5

18

0 5 10 15 20 km

AT A GLANCE – INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET REVIEW, POLAND – Q3 2019

EXISTING & UNDER CONSTRUCTION

Vacancy rate

Under construction

Total existing stock

Headline rent range(per sqm/mth)

*for the next 6 months

KEY INDICATORS & FUTURE TRENDS* ( )

POZNAŃ

PLANNED

2.70–3.40 EUR

8.4%2,027,800 m2

131,100 m2

• There were two schemes completed in Poznań region in Q3 2019 – 7R Park Poznań and the first stage of MLP Poznań West.

• Since the beginning of 2019, the vacancy rate has decreased by 0.3 p.p. and at the end of September it reached 8.4%. However, the available space almost doubled compared to the corre-sponding period of the previous year.

• Growing construction costs and high level of demand can stim-ulate the rental level increase in the middle and long term.

• There are an increasing number of warehouses being built in the area between Poznań and the German border, along major transportation corridors. They have created a new warehouse hub – “West”, gathering schemes along the western border.

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9

Oława

Oław

a

Odra

Odra

J. Mietkowskie

Strzegomka

Wąsosz

Jemielno

Wińsko Żmigród

Milicz

Twardogóra

Dobroszyce

ZawoniaTrzebnicaOborniki Śl.

WiszniaMała

Brzeg Dolny

Wołów

Malczyce

Miękinia

Kostomłoty

Mietków

Marcinowice Sobótka

Łagiewniki

Kondratowice

NiemczaPieszyce

StoszowiceNowaRuda

PiławaGórna Ciepłowody

Ziębice

Przeworno

Grodków

Olszanka

Wiązów

Domaniów

Żórawina

Siechnice

Czernica

Długołęka

BIerutów

Jelcz--Laskowice

Lubsza

Kobierzyce

Strzelin

SkarbimierzOsiedle

Ząbkowice Śl.

JordanówŚląski

Borów

Żarów

KątyWrocławskie

ŚrodaŚląska

Krośnice

Prusice

OLEŚNICA

OŁAWA

BRZEGŚWIDNICA

DZIERŻONIÓW

BIELAWA

WROCŁAW

0 5 10 15 20 km

E67

E67

E40

E67

E40

E40

E261

36

94

94

94

35

39

15

5

8

8

25

S5

S8S8

A4

A4

A8

A4

2818

13

7

2

1

3

15

12

25

4

10

5

11

6

29

31

8

21

22

23 14 24

26

16

20

17

9

30

1

2

27 19

0 5 10 15 20 km

1. 7R Wrocław2. BIK Park Wrocław I3. City Logistics Wrocław I4. Eurologis5. Gazowa Industrial Park6. Goodman Wrocław IV Logistics

Centre7. Goodman Wrocław V Logistics

Centre8. Hillwood Wrocław Bielany9. Hillwood Wrocław Wschód I, II10. Hillwood Wrocław III11. Logicor Wrocław II12. Logicor Wrocław IV13. MLP Wrocław14. Panattoni Park Wrocław II15. Panattoni Park Wrocław III16. Panattoni Park Wrocław V 17. Panattoni Park Wrocław VII18. Panattoni Park Wrocław IX19. Panattoni Park Wrocław XI20. Panattoni Park Wrocław Airport21. Prologis Park Wrocław22. Prologis Park Wrocław III23. Prologis Park Wrocław IV24. Prologis Park Wrocław V25. S5 Wrocław North Gate26. Segro Industrial Park Wrocław27. Tiner Logistic Park28. Tristar Wrocław29. Wrocław Business Park30. Wrocław-Bielany Logistics

Centre31. VATT Invest Wrocław

1. MountPark Wrocław2. SegroLogistics Park Wrocław

PLANNED

• Lower Silesia owes its development to well-developed transport infrastructure. The majority of industrial schemes provide its ser-vices to foreign markets, thanks to its proximity to the southern and western borders of the country.

• Since the beginning of 2019, the total supply has grown by almost 170,000 sqm. The largest delivered scheme was Panattoni Park Wrocław IX (45,800 sqm).

• Despite an increase in the vacancy rate in Q3 2019, Lower Silesia region still stands out as having one of the lowest shares of avail-able space among major industrial clusters. It had reached a level of 4.7% at the end of September.

• Rental rates in the Wrocław area are among the highest for the main industrial and logistics hubs (apart from the area within the boundaries of Warsaw).

• In December 2017, the S5 expressway to the north of Wrocław was opened. The whole of the high speed road between Wrocław and Poznań should be completed by the end of 2019. A direct result of the route’s development was the construction of a new logistics scheme being launched - Panattoni S5 North Gate Wrocław.

AT A GLANCE – INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET REVIEW, POLAND – Q3 2019

EXISTING & UNDER CONSTRUCTION

Vacancy rate

Under construction

Total existing stock

Headline rent range(per sqm/mth)

*for the next 6 months

KEY INDICATORS & FUTURE TRENDS* ( )

LOWER SILESIA

2.70–3.70 EUR

4.7%1,865,100 m2

329,100 m2

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10

ŚwinnaPoręba (bud.)

J. Dobczyckie

Raba

Raba

Skawa

S kawa

Wisła

Ogrodzieniec

Żarnowiec

Sędziszów

Kozłów

Charsznica

Miechów

KsiążWielki

Michałów

Słaboszów

Działoszyce

CzarnocinRacławice

PałecznicaRadziemice

Koniusza

Luborzyca

Michałowice

IwanowiceWłościańskie

Skała

WielkaWieś

Zielonki

TrzyciążGołcza

Sułoszowa

Klucze

Bolesław

Bukowno

Trzebinia

Krzeszowice

Zabierzów

Alwernia

Spytkowice

Brzeźnica

Tomice

Wadowice

KalwariaZebrzydowska

StryszówLanckorona

Mucharz

Zembrzyce

Stryszawa

Tokarnia

BystraJordanów

RabaWyżna

Rabka--Zdrój

MszanaDolna

Lubień

Pcim

Wiśniowa

Jodłownik

Dobra Tymbark

Laskowa

ŻegocinaTrzciana

Łapanów

NowyWiśnicz

Raciechowice

Dobczyce

Myślenice

SieprawMogilany

Skawina

Wieliczka

ŚwiątnikiGórne

Sułkowice

Gdów

Tomaszkowice

Niepołomice

Kłaj Rzezawa

LipnicaMurowana

Limanowa

Łukowica

Słopnica

Niedźwiedź

Zawoja

SuchaBeskidzka

MakówPodhalański

Budzów

Liszki

Czernichów

Babice

JerzmanowiceProszowice

NoweBrzesko

DrwinaWawrzeńczyce

SłomnikiKazimierza

Wielka

Skalbmierz

Pińczów

Wodzisław

Wolbrom

Pilica

OLKUSZ

CHRZANÓW

BOCHNIA

KRAKÓW

ZAWIERCIE

E40

E40

E77

E462

E77

94

79

44

52

28

28

28

28

75

47

7

7

7975

7

S7

S7

S52A4

A41

2

1

4

2 8

6

75

11

12

9

10

3

1. 7R Park Brzesko2. Centrum Logistyczne Kraków III

1. 7R Hillwood Park Kraków Kokotów

2. Centrum Logistyczne Kraków I3. Centrum Logistyczne Kraków II4. Goodman Kraków Airport

Logistics Centre5. KJF Park Balice6. Logicor Kraków7. Łęgprzem Kraków8. MARR Business Park9. MG Logistic10. Panattoni Park Kraków II, III, IV11. RB Logistic Olkusz12. Witek Airport Logistic Centre

0 5 10 15 20 km

AT A GLANCE – INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET REVIEW, POLAND – Q3 2019

KRAKÓW

3.20–3.90 EUR

577,900 m2

16,700 m2

8.6%

• Since the beginning of 2019 Kraków hub has grown by 102,000 sqm, mainly due to delivery of other phases of 7R Park Kraków.

• Relatively fast growth of the market contributes to increasing the vacancy rate. At the end of September it reached 8.6%, which is 1.7 p.p. higher than in the previous year.

• There are two BTS schemes currently under construction– 7R BTS Balice and Goodman BTS Skawina.

• Due to a shortage of modern space within the boundaries of the city, Kraków remains the second most expensive location in the country.

1. Supply below 1m sqm.

SECONDARY HUBS1

EXISTING & UNDER CONSTRUCTION

Vacancy rate

Under construction

Total existing stock

Headline rent range(per sqm/mth)

KEY INDICATORS & FUTURE TRENDS* ( )

*for the next 6 months

PLANNED

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11

J. Żarno-wieckie

Z a t o k aP u c k a

Z a t o k a

G d a ń s k a

Wisła

Nogat

Martwa

Wisła

Reda

J. Raduńskie Dln.

Radunia

Krokowa

Jastarnia

Władysławowo

Puck

Gniewino

Reda

Luzino

Szemud

Przodkowo

ŻukowoChmielno

KARTUZY

Somonino

Przywidz

Kolbudy

Nowa Karczma

Liniewo

Stara Kiszewa

Kaliska

Zblewo

Pelplin

SulkowyMiłoradz

Lichnowy

PszczółkiTrąbkiWielkie

Skarszewy

Suchy Dąb

CedryWielkie

Ostaszewo

Stegna

Sztutowo

Nowy DwórGdański

Nowy Staw

StaryTarg

Kosakowo HelWEJHEROWO

PRUSZCZGDAŃSKI

STAROGARDGDAŃSKI

MALBORK

SZTUM

GDYNIA

GDAŃSK

SOPOT

RUMIA

TCZEW

E28

E28

E77

E75

20

55

55

2222

2291

91

20

6

7

S6

S7

S7

S6

S6

A1

5

7

312

6

89

4

10

2

131

14

715 16

111

1. 7R Park City Flex Gdańsk2. 7R Tczew3. Chylonia Business Park4. Gdańsk-Kowale Distribution Centre 5. Centrum Magazynowe Hutnicza6. Goodman Pomeranian Logistics

Centre7. Logistic Center Pruszcz Gdański8. Panattoni Park Gdańsk I9. Panattoni Park Gdańsk III10. Panattoni Park Rafineria11. Panattoni Park Tricity North12. Port Gdynia Logistic Centre13. Prologis Park Gdańsk-Airpot

(Exeter)14. Royal Business Park15. Segro Logistics Park Gdańsk16. Tristar Gdańsk

0 5 10 15 20 km

1. 7R City Flex Gdynia

PLANNED

AT A GLANCE – INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET REVIEW, POLAND – Q3 2019

EXISTING & UNDER CONSTRUCTION

Vacancy rate

Under construction

Total existing stock

Headline rent range(per sqm/mth)

*for the next 6 months

KEY INDICATORS & FUTURE TRENDS* ( )

2.80–3.40 EUR

10.1%667,000 m2

102,100 m2

• The Tricity region is the largest industrial and logistics mar-ket in northern Poland. The proximity of international sea-ports, an international airport and expressways contribute to the development of intermodal transport.

• Since the beginning of 2019, the total modern logistics stock has increased by 171,700 sqm. The largest delivered scheme was Panattoni Park Gdańsk III.

• Q3 brought a significant increase in vacancy rates. In the Tricity cluster 10.1% of existing space remained a without tenant.

• At the end of Q3, the total stock under construction has reached a total of 102,100 sqm located in four schemes.

TRICITY

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12

Wieprz

Chodelka

Bystrzy

ca

Abramów

Kurów

Końskowola Markuszów

GarbówJastków

Nałęczów

Wojciechów

Poniatowa

Bełżyce

Borzechów

Jabłonna

Piaski

MełgiewMilejów

CycówPuchaczów

Łęczna

Ludwin

SpiczynNiemce

Serniki

Lubartów

JakubowiceMurowane

Trawniki

Fajsławice

ŁopiennikGórny

Chodel

Konopnica

NiedrzwicaDuża

Wąwolnica

Kamionka

LUBLIN

ŚWIDNIK

48

19

19

19

74

82

17

12

12

S19

S17

S19

S17

7

1

5

8

24

6 31

2

Przyr w

a

Wisłok a

Łęg

Wisł

a

Wisła

ZalewPilzno W

isło

k

Wisłoka

Szydłów Staszów Łoniów

Osiek

BaranówSandomierski

PadewNarodowa

TuszówNarodowy

GawłuszowiceBorowaPacanów

Szczucin

WadowiceGórne

RadomyślWielki Przecław

Radgoszcz

Dąbrowa Tarnowska

LisiaGóra

Pustków

Żyraków

Czarna

Pilzno

WielopoleSkrzyńskie

Wiśniowa

Frysztak

Kołaczyce

Wojaszówka

TarnowiecJedlicze

Dębowiec

Chorkówka

Niebylec

Domaradz

JasienicaRozielna

Brzozów

Haczów

Korczyna

Czudec

Iwierzyce

Boguchwała

Tyczyn

Lubenia

ŚwilczaTrzebownisko

GłogówMałopolski

NiwiskaKolbuszowa

Cmolas

Dzikowiec

MajdanKrólewski

Bojanów

Grąbów

NowaDęba

Raniżów

Ostrów SędziszówMłp.

Ropczyce

Skrzyszów

Tuchów

Ryglice

RzepiennikStrzyżewski

Ciężkowice

Moszczenica

Szerzyny

Skołyszyn

Biecz

ŁużnaLipinki

Jodłowa Brzostek

Brzyska

PołaniecŁubnice

Koprzywnica

Rytwiany

Oleśnica

Tuczępy

TARNÓW

RZESZÓWDĘBICA

STRZYŻÓW

JASŁO

GORLICE

KROSNO

MIELEC

TARNOBRZEGSTALOWA

WOLA

79

79

73

73

73

28

9

9

9

E371

A4

A4

S19

10 13

12

11

3

9

14

0 5 10 15 20 km

0 5 10 15 20 km

1. Centrum Logistyczne Mełgiewska

2. Centrum Logistyczne Tokarska3. Centrum Logistyczne Vetterów4. Goodman Lublin Logistics

Centre5. Go East - Lubelskie Centrum

Logistyczne6. MLP Lublin 7. Panattoni Park Lublin I8. Panattoni Park Lublin II9. 7R Rzeszów10. Centrum Logistyczne Rogoźnica11. Panattoni Park Rzeszów12. Skalski Logistic Park Podgrodzie13. Waimea Cargo Terminal

Rzeszów-Jesionka14. Waimea Logistic Park Korczowa

1. Korczowa Logistic Park2. MLP Lublin II3. Panattoni Park Lublin III

AT A GLANCE – INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET REVIEW, POLAND – Q3 2019

EXISTING & UNDER CONSTRUCTION

Vacancy rate

Under construction

Total existing stock

Headline rent range(per sqm/mth)

*for the next 6 months

KEY INDICATORS & FUTURE TRENDS* ( )

EAST

3.20–3.60 EUR

2.3%494,300 m2

32,700 m2

• In 2019 developers finished the construction of only three large-scale projects in the region of Lublin, Rzeszów and Białystok: Pana-ttoni Park Lublin, MLP Lublin and 7R Park Rzeszów.

• Since the beginning of 2019, a significant amount of free space was absorbed. At the end of September, the share of available space has been amounted to 2.3%.

• The planned completion of the S17 expressway between Warsaw and Lublin in 2020 will significantly improve transportation to/from the capital and is expected to increase the potential for emergence of an industrial and logistics sector in this area.

• Route S19 between Lublin and Rzeszów, part of the “Via Carpatia” route, is currently being carried out as a “design and build” project. The first sections of it will be delivered in 2021.

PLANNED

Page 13: At a glance Q3 2019 INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET* REVIEW ...€¦ · market balance to be maintained in the short term. Modern industrial & logistics stock 17.6mln m2 Total stock

13

Ina

Randow

Randow

Odra

Zac

h.

Odra

Płonia

Ina

Gowienica

RoztokaOdrzańska

Z a l e w S z c z e c i ń s k i J. Nowowar-

pieńskie

Małe Dąbie

J. Dąbie

J. Miedwie

Odra

Wsc

h.

Brüssow

Gartz

Penkun

Osina

Stara Dąbrowa

StareCzarnowo

Kołbaskowo Kobylanka

Dobra

Stepnica

Maszewo

Gry�no

Nowogard

GoleniówPOLICE

STARGARD

SZCZECIN

E65

E65

E65

E28

E28

104

E28

E28

10

10

2013

31

2

2

A6

S3

S3

S6

S10

2

14

7

1

6

8

3

52

1. 7R Szczecin2. Exeter Park Szczecin I, II3. North-West Logistic Park I, II4. Panattoni Park Szczecin I5. Panattoni Park Szczecin II6. Prologis Park Szczecin (Exeter)7. Waimea Logistic Park Statgard8. Waimea Terminal Cargo

Szczecin - Goleniów

0 5 10 15 20 km

Brda

Kanał

Noteć

Notecki

Wisł

a

Wisła

Drwęca

Sicienko

Osielsko

PruszczStolno

Lisewo

Chełmża

Łysomice

LubiczDolny

Obrowo

CiechocinekAleksandrówKujawski

MałaNieszawka

Rojewo

ZłotnikiKujawskie

Nowa WieśWielka

BiałeBłota

SolecKujawski

ZławieśWielka

Łabiszyn

Barcin

WielkaNieszawka

Gniewkowo

KowalewoPomorskie

PłużnicaKijewoKrólewskie

DąbrowaChełmińska

Unisław

Łubianka

PapowoBiskupie

Dobrcz

BYDGOSZCZ

TORUŃ

E75

E261

E261

25

25

15

15

5591

10

10

80

80

5

5

A1

S5

S5

S5S10

S10

1

5236

1

4

1. Goodman Toruń Logistics Centre

2. Logistic and Business Park Bydgoszcz

3. Panattoni Park Bydgoszcz I, II4. Panattoni Park Toruń II5. Waimea Logistic Park Bydgoszcz6. Waimea MM Bydgoszcz

1. Diamond Business Park Toruń

0 5 10 15 20 km

1. JWC Park Szczecin2. Park Szczecin II

PLANNED

AT A GLANCE – INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET REVIEW, POLAND – Q3 2019

SZCZECIN• 40% of the total stock in this region is located in two largescale

BTS schemes: the largest warehouse in Poland – Panattoni BTS Amazon Szczecin (161,500 sqm) and Goodman BTS Zalando Szczecin (130,000 sqm).

• At the end of September 4.4% of leasable space remained with-out a tenant.

• The largest building completed over the second quarter was Panattoni Park Szczecin II (37,400 sqm).

• At the end of September, there were two schemes under construction: another phase of Panattoni Park Szczecin I (30,300 sqm) and Exeter Park Szczecin II (15,000 sqm).

BYDGOSZCZ / TORUŃ • In 2017 alone, the industrial and logistics market in the Bydgoszcz

/ Toruń hub increased by 86%. This was caused by the delivery of three large-scale warehouse schemes. The hub has grown by only 13,200 sqm since the beginning of 2018.

• The vacancy rate remained at a similar level for a few months, slightly exceeding 4%.

• By the end of this year, Bydgoszcz / Toruń hub was expected to gain a convenient connection with Poznań as a result of further phases of the S5 expressway being completed. Unfortunately, the agreements with some contractors were repudiated recently. Therefore, the completion of the entire road will be postponed.

2.90–3.50 EUR

4.2%331,900 m2

80,100 m2

3.10–3.90 EUR

4.4%719,100 m2

45,300 m2

EXISTING & UNDER CONSTRUCTION

PLANNED

*for the next 6 months

*for the next 6 months

Vacancy rate

Under construction

Total existing stock

Headline rent range(per sqm/mth)

KEY INDICATORS & FUTURE TRENDS* ( )

Vacancy rate

Under construction

Total existing stock

Headline rent range(per sqm/mth)

KEY INDICATORS & FUTURE TRENDS* ( )

EXISTING & UNDER CONSTRUCTION

Page 14: At a glance Q3 2019 INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET* REVIEW ...€¦ · market balance to be maintained in the short term. Modern industrial & logistics stock 17.6mln m2 Total stock

14

Odra

Warta

WartaWarta

Odra

Odra

Bóbr

Bóbr

Bóbr

Odra

Odra

E30 E30

S3

S3

S3

S3

S3

S3

S3

A4

A4A4

A4

A18

A18

A2A2

A2

E40

E65

E65

E65

E65

E6531

31

31

22 2222

22

22

2424

24

9292

92

92

92

23

23

31

31

29

29

29

32

32

32

32

3232

32

27

27

12

12

12

12 12

36

36

9494

94

94

30

30

34

353

3

3

5

5

5

5

12

12

LEGNICA

WAŁBRZYCH

ŚWIDNICA

LIBEREC

ZIELONA GÓRA

GORZÓWWIELKOPOLSKI

CHOCIEBUŻ

LUBIN

FRANKFURTNAD ODRĄ

GÖRLITZ ZGORZELEC

JELENIA GÓRA

GŁOGÓW

ŻAGAŃŻARY

ŚWIEBODZIN

MIĘDZYCHÓD

NOWA SÓL

BOLESŁAWIEC

BUDZISZYN

EISENHÜTTENSTADT

WRONKI

MIĘDZYRZECZ

GRODZISKWIELKOPOLSKI

WOLSZTYN

GUBIN

FORST (LAUSITZ)

KOSTRZYNNAD ODRĄ

LubniewiceSłońsk

Dębno

Witnica

LubiszynBoleszkowice

NowinyWielkie

Deszczno

Skwierzyna

Goszczanowo

Drezdenko

Sowia Góra

Miały

Wróblewo

Ostroróg

Białokosz

Przytoczna

Bucharzewo

Rokitno

Prusim

Pniewy

Mużaków

Strzeszowice

Włochów

Żaganiec

Siecieborzyce

Studzieniec

SzklarskaPoręba

Antoniów

Karpacz

Kamienna Góra

BolkówKaczorów

Chrośnica

MarciszówBukowiec

Krzeszówek

JaworLuboradz

Lusina

StrzegomRoztoka

Legnickie Pole

Prochowice

Dzierzkowice

Karczowiska

Ścinawa

Redlice

PolkowiceJakubowo Lubińskie

Szklary Dolne

GromadkaTrzebień

Leszno Górne

Ruszów

Węgliniec

Jagodzin

Godzieszów

PrzejęsławChocianów

Przemków

Niegosławice

Rudna

GrębociceNieszczyce

WierzchowniaGóra

Szlichtyngowa

Wschowa

Sława

Grochowice

Chełmek

Czerna

Drożyna

Łęgoń

Obra

Rakoniewice

Kuźnica Zbąska

Opalenica

BukWąsowo

Łowyń

Miedzichowo

Łagowiec

Grońsko

Zębówko

Nowy Tomyśl

ZbąszyńZbąszynek

Kargowa

KonotopBojadła

Trzebiechów Świętno Perkowo

Włoszałkowice

Wilkowo Polskie

Babimost

Sulechów

Nowe Miasteczko

Chojnów

ZagrodnoŻeliszów

Czaple

Świerzawa

Jastrowiec

Sichów

Wyskok

Olszyna

Lubań

Sulików

Głuszyca

Świebodzice

Pszczew

Nowy DworekŁagów

Sulęcin

Muszkowo

GoliceTemplewo

Małuszów

Ośno Lubuskie

Rzepin

Boczów Torzym

Mostki

Cibórz

Rosin

Smardzewo

BytnicaSiedlisko

Radomicko

Rybołowy

Bogaczów

Tuchola Żarska

Dzikowo

Wełmice

Jałowice

Polanowice

Węgrzynice

Debrznica

Przylep

Bródki

Łagów

Racula

Ochla

Lubiatów

NowogródBobrzański

KrosnoOdrzańskie

DychówBronków

Brody Lubsko

JasieńKożuchów

Niwilska

Brzeźnica

Szpotawa

Trzebów

ŚwiętoszówIłowa

Kliczków

Nowogrodziec

Złotoryja

Leśna

Świeradów-Zdrój

LwówekŚląski

GryfówŚląski Lubomierz

Cybinka

Maczków

1

34

5

1

252

3

6

42

1

1. Exeter Park Sulechów2. Exeter Park Świecko3. Hillwood Krosno Odrzańskie4. Hillwood Świebodzin5. Hillwood Świecko6. Panattoni Park Zielona Góra I, II

1. CTPark Iłowa2. Exeter Park Świebodzin3. Hillwood Zgorzelec4. Panattoni Park Legnica5. Waimea Logiscitc Park Rzepin

BTS schemes

AT A GLANCE – INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET REVIEW, POLAND – Q3 2019

0 5 10 15 20 km

3.00-3.80 EUR0%522,700 m2 32,300 m2

WEST

The West cluster comprises warehouse and logistics schemes situated along the western border of Poland and the S3 expressway.

This region is dominated by BTS schemes, which account for 60% of the total stock.

At the end of Q3 2019, the to-tal volume under construction amounted to 32,300 sqm.

Dominance of BTS type projects coupled with the high level of ten-ant demand has led to a shortage of available warehouse space in modern existing schemes. More-over, 85% of the stock which is currently at construction stage was already leased.

Key drivers that are triggering development of this region are high demand for space from companies operating in West-ern Europe, steadily improving road infrastructure (e. g. the S3 expressway) and the convenient accessibility of this location.

PLANNED

EXISTING & UNDER CONSTRUCTION

Vacancy rateTotal existing stock Headline rent range(per sqm/mth)

*for the next 6 months

KEY INDICATORS & FUTURE TRENDS* ( )

Under construction

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15

AT A GLANCE – INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET REVIEW, POLAND – Q3 2019

DEFINITIONSIndustrial and logistics stock (sqm) – a term covering the following sub-types of existing space: Light Manufacturing and Warehousing (including Logistics), delivered to the market by professional developers.

Take-up (sqm) – transactions regarding industrial and logistics space including: pre-lets, built-to-suit, new transactons, renegotiations and sub-lease.

Vacancy rate (%) – ratio representing the percentage of physically va-cant space in existing properties.

Rent range (in Euro per sqm) – Rental rates for 2,000 sqm unit ranging from the top to average modern industrial and logistics schemes in a given hub.

AUTHORSzymon Dołęga Consultant, Research & Consultancy Department, Central & Eastern Europe, [email protected]

CONTACTSErik Drukker Chief Executive Officer, Central & Eastern Europe, [email protected] Roguski Head of Industrial & Logistics Department, Central & Eastern Europe, [email protected] Pawłowski Associate Director, Industrial & Logistics Agency, [email protected] Kajka Senior Consultant, Industrial & Logistics Department, [email protected] Gnich Senior Consultant, Industrial & Logistics Department, [email protected] Milczarek Director, Capital Markets, [email protected] Dzikowska Head of Research & Consultancy, Central & Eastern Europe, [email protected]

All rights reserved. At a Glance is protected in its entirety by copyright. No part of this publication may be reproduced, translated, transmitted, or stored in a retrieval system in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of BNP Paribas Real Estate.

Selected lease transactions, Q1-Q3 2019

Selected schemes under construction, Q3 2019

Tenant Scheme Hub Area leased (m2) Type of lease

Jysk Logistic City Piotrków Trybunalski Central Poland 60,000 renewal

Pantos Logistics Panattoni Park Wrocław XI Lower Silesia 59,200 new

Pepsico P3 Mszczonów Warsaw II 58,500 new

Raben Prologis Park Ruda Śląska Upper Silesia 51,200 new

PF Logo P3 Poznań Poznań 49,700 renegwal

Scheme Hub Developer Area (m2)

Panattoni BTS Amazon Gliwice Upper Silesia Panattoni 210,000

Hillwood Olsztynek other Hillwood 120,500

Panattoni BTS Leroy Merlin Central Poland Panattoni 62,000

Panattoni BTS Amazon Bolesławiec West Panattoni 60,600

P3 Piotrków Central Poland P3 59,600Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate

Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate

Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate

Scheme Hub Developer Area (m2)

A2 Warsaw Park Warsaw II Panattoni 103,700

Panattoni Park Wrocław XI Lower Silesia Panattoni 97,500

Hillwood Łódź Górna Central Poland Hillwood 73,000

Panattoni Park Janki III Warsaw II Panattoni 70,600

Central European Logistics Hub Central Poland Panattoni 67,000

Selected schemes delivered, Q1 -Q3 2019

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