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ATMOP Advanced Thermosphere Modelling for Orbit Prediction Space Call 3 – FP7-SPACE-2010-

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ATMOP

Advanced Thermosphere Modelling for Orbit

Prediction

Space Call 3 – FP7-SPACE-2010-1

ATMOP Partners

ATMOP FP7 project 2

Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS),

France

• 7th framework project selected by the European Commission• Project duration: 3 years• Kick-off: 1/1/2011 • 7 partnersDEIMOS Space (DMS), Spain

Met Office (MET), United Kingdom

Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales (CNES), France

University College London (UCL), United Kingdom

Collecte Localisation Satellites (CLS),

FranceKybertec s.r.o. (KYBERTEC), Czech Republic

DTM: Development of an advanced semi-empirical Drag Temperature Model

– that has the potential to be adapted for near-real-time operation and – that is accurate enough to meet the requirements set by space agencies for orbit

computations..

PHMOD: Physical modelling of the thermosphere PROX: Define and assess new proxies to describe the external (EUV

and geomagnetic) forcing of the thermosphere by the Sun which take advantage of the present state of the art in observational and data analysis capabilities.

THERM: Support European research activities on forecasting techniques:

– by upgrading assimilation of thermosphere data into an existing semi-empirical model for near-real time prediction

– by developing thermosphere data assimilation based on a global physical thermosphere-ionosphere coupled model (CMAT2)

ATMOP objectives

ATMOP FP7 project 3

ATMOP objectives

ATMOP FP7 project 4

ATMOP Work Packages

ATMOP FP7 project 5

WP1 Project ManagementDEIMOS

WPL: N. Sánchez Ortiz

WP2Forcing the thermosphere: physical processes and proxies for semi-empirical modelling

CNRSWPL: Ch. Lathuillère

PROX, DTM, PHMOD

WP3 Physical Modelling of thermospheric drag processes

UCLWPL: A. Aylward

PHMOD, DTM

WP4 Semi-empirical modelling of the thermosphere

CNESWPL: S. Bruinsma

DTM

WP5Data assimilation for global analysis and near-real time prediction

Met OfficeWPL: D. Jackson

THERM, DTM, PHMOD

WP6 Dissemination CNRSWPL: M. Menvielle

ATMOP outputs and deliveries

ATMOP FP7 project 6

Fully documented harmonized database of thermospheric densities

ATMOP website: CD with all documentation and software for website installation

on any platform Solar EUV bands and proxies to be used as inputs for the DTM

model: Recommendations for the most appropriate EUV bands and

proxies Database Nowcast and prototype forecast

Geomagnetic proxies to be used as inputs for the DTM model : Recommendations for the most appropriate EUV bands and

proxies Database Nowcast and prototype forecast

Physical investigations on electrodynamic forcing

ATMOP outputs and deliveries

ATMOP FP7 project 7

Comparison between physical model (CMAT2) outputs and

observation data

Assessment of data assimilation performances

Evaluation on the use of drag data assimilation for the improvement

of short-term forecast

Thermospheric data assimilation system for DTM

DTM_2011 model package: model, benchmark, and documentation

DTM_2012 model package: model, benchmark, and documentation

DTM_nrt model package: model, benchmark, and documentation

Pert diagram

ATMOP FP7 project 8

ATMOP

WP 1 WP 2 WP 3 WP 4 WP 5 WP 6

Task 2.1 Task 3.1 Task 4.1 Task 5.1

Task 2.2 Task 3.2 Task 4.2 Task 5.2

Task 2.3 Task 3.3 Task 4.3 Task 5.3

Task 2.4 Task 3.4 Task 4.4 Task 5.4

Task 2.5 Task 3.5 Task 4.5 Task 5.5

Task 3.6 Task 5.6

Task 5.7

Project Management

Physical processes and proxies

Database construction for

proxies assessment

Solar UV forcing and solar proxies

Physics of Ectrodynamic

forcing

Geomagnetic proxies

Final Report Writing

Physical Modelling of Thermospheric Drag processes

Evaluate best of CMAT2 to use for

the study

Initial Model runs

Runs to evaluate use of different input proxies

Comparison with data

Evaluation of data assimilation

Final Report Writing

Semi-empirical modelling of the Thermosphere

Creation of the density database

Revision and Upgrading of the

DTM model

Validation of the model parameters

Validation of the density models

Final Report Writing

Final Report Writing

Data assimilation: global analysis and

near-real time prediction

Design of data assimilation system

Observation processing and quality control

Thermospheric data assimilation in DTM

Dissemination

Thermospheric data assimilation using physical models

Thermospheric data assimilation using

DTM

Assessment of thermospheric data assimilation results

WP2: Forcing the thermosphere: physical processes and proxies

ATMOP FP7 project 9

Objectives:

to identify the best possible EUV and geomagnetic proxies for describing the solar and geomagnetic forcing of the thermosphere;

to set up tools enabling timely on-line delivery and nowcast of the proxies to be used in the pre-operational Drag Temperature Model (DTM);

to develop a prototype forecast of EUV forcing up to several days ahead;

to develop a prototype forecast of the geomagnetic proxies based on solar wind data at L1;

to understand the influence and relative importance of various physical processes in the solar wind- magnetosphere-ionosphere system on the behavior of the semi-empirical model.

WP3: Physical Modelling of Thermospheric Drag Processes

ATMOP FP7 project 10

Concept and objectives:

To assist development of the semi-empirical

thermospheric density model DTM by evaluating

possible improvements and changes using a physical

model of the coupled thermosphere-ionosphere system

To build capability for ionosphere / thermosphere data

assimilation based on a global physical model, which

shall ultimately be the successor to semi-empirical

methods

WP4: Semi-empirical Modelling of the Thermosphere

ATMOP FP7 project 11

Objectives:

Creation of a density data base

Revision and upgrading of the DTM model

DTM_2011 model package. The model, benchmark and

documentation (new solar indices)

DTM_2012 model package. The model, benchmark and

documentation (new geomagnetic indices)

Validation of the model parameters

Validation of the density models through orbit computations

WP5: Data assimilation for global analysis and near-real time prediction

ATMOP FP7 project 12

Objectives: Develop a version of the DTM thermosphere model that can

assimilate total density data in near-real time (DTM_nrt). Analyze methods to predict density using DTM. Users can install and run a version of DTM_nrt on-site. The model will be driven by a data file containing all parameters necessary for the density prediction. The production and distribution of this data file in near-real time is not an ATMOP objective. DTM_nrt model package. The model, benchmark and

documentation Develop a global analysis and forecast system for the

thermosphere and ionosphere based on data assimilation into a physically evolving global forecast model. The aim is to build capability for a future system which incorporates assimilation of a variety of thermosphere and ionosphere observations, in the manner of an operational meteorological system.

ATMOP management

ATMOP FP7 project 13

ATMOP & NADIR

ATMOP FP7 project 14

We propose: To exchange products (indices, models, …), for independent

evaluation To exchange results of studies To compare and discuss our approaches (modeling, construction

of a particular index, data assimilation, …) …

NB: I can send the detailed work package descriptions